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The Sandman
Jun 23, 2013

Okay!

So, I've, like, designed a really sweet attack plan that I'm calling Attack Plan Ded Moroz, like "Deadmau5!"

WUB!
Maybe as a follow-up scenario do a Russian invasion of Hokkaido?

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Mycroft Holmes
Mar 26, 2010

by Azathoth

wedgekree posted:

I guess the IJN being more conservative for the moment actually plays well if they keep up a track on the Akula and hold thier forces back rather than rushing in given the Russians have good fighter availability and Bears up. It seems at least they're starting to adjust some - playing a bit more conservatively and not being as aggressive as they were early game. Guess it depends on how/if they get a good read on the convoy or at lesat an estimate and what shape they're in when they go after it

And -any- sub going flank speed is loud - diesel, nuclear, one designed for nuclear launch like the Ohios..

73 years too late there bud

wedgekree
Feb 20, 2013

Mycroft Holmes posted:

73 years too late there bud

True, but whenever I say Japanese Self-Defense Force I think of the guys Godzilla disintegrates each movie.

sincx
Jul 13, 2012

furiously masturbating to anime titties
.

sincx fucked around with this message at 06:35 on Mar 23, 2021

Yooper
Apr 30, 2012


I don't think so. Nor do the Japanese know there are two more A-50's.

wedgekree
Feb 20, 2013
Soo, was this a good trade or not given the tactical circumstances and the force remnants both sides have left?

sincx
Jul 13, 2012

furiously masturbating to anime titties
.

sincx fucked around with this message at 06:35 on Mar 23, 2021

Pharnakes
Aug 14, 2009
Id say 2:1 foxbat:eagles is probably about even as things stand. Though maybe tactical victory for the ruskis since they've driven off the 767 without the convoy being detected.

sincx
Jul 13, 2012

furiously masturbating to anime titties
.

sincx fucked around with this message at 06:35 on Mar 23, 2021

Yooper
Apr 30, 2012


sincx posted:

What're the odds of Kobald surviving?

Depending on his ROE, quite good. If he can make it to the hump undetected, lie on the bottom, and wait, it's quite likely the Russian subs will not detect him. Then, if he's patient enough, he might be able to throw harpoons into that convoy. However my guess is he'll go hunting subs instead of hunting ferries. The other unknown is a Bear getting a MAD hit, then it's kind of game over. He's heading to a unique spot in the area, most of the AOO is abyssal.

Cythereal
Nov 8, 2009

I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.
The Japanese have figured out the Russian plan. Going to be interesting to see if the Russians can pull this off.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

Quite funny that the two Russian subs sprinting about seems to have revealed the convoy path to the Japanese despite them both managing to not eat a torp.

jerman999
Apr 26, 2006

This is a lex imperfecta
Something that may be interesting to thread watchers, IRL Japan is upping their F-35 buy: https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2018/12/18/with-massive-f-35-increase-japan-is-now-biggest-international-buyer/

Hav
Dec 11, 2009

Fun Shoe

Russia put 3500 troops on the Kurils, which is fun.

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

Hav posted:

Russia put 3500 troops on the Kurils, which is fun.

probably not for the soldiers

ManifunkDestiny
Aug 2, 2005
THE ONLY THING BETTER THAN THE SEAHAWKS IS RUSSELL WILSON'S TAINT SWEAT

Seahawks #1 fan since 2014.
So Russia is gonna have to deal with a massed F-4/F-15 strike *and* a Harpoon missile strike on a mostly defenseless convoy. Gonna be tough to defend against all that if the Japanese can coordinate.

Cythereal
Nov 8, 2009

I love the potoo,
and the potoo loves you.
This was always going to be a tough mission for the Russians. I don't think there was ever a realistic chance of getting the convoy in undetected, so unless the Russians held back the convoy and dedicated themselves to defanging Japan first, a pucker moment like this was bound to happen.

wedgekree
Feb 20, 2013
So presuming the Japanese havethe timing done well, are they going to be going for saturation and trying to just hammer as many missiles/harpoons on the convoy as possible?

And was the random moving of the Patriot battery they did worth anything at -all- now its setup?

Loxbourne
Apr 6, 2011

Tomorrow, doom!
But now, tea.

wedgekree posted:

So presuming the Japanese havethe timing done well, are they going to be going for saturation and trying to just hammer as many missiles/harpoons on the convoy as possible?

And was the random moving of the Patriot battery they did worth anything at -all- now its setup?

It might be a nasty surprise for any Russian aircraft heading that direction, but the contingency it was moved for hasn't happened.

Hav
Dec 11, 2009

Fun Shoe

wedgekree posted:

So presuming the Japanese havethe timing done well, are they going to be going for saturation and trying to just hammer as many missiles/harpoons on the convoy as possible?

And was the random moving of the Patriot battery they did worth anything at -all- now its setup?

Well, it was supposed to protect the smouldering remains of the radar installations that got suicided very early on, because it’s previous location was unlikely to bring it into play.

Single harpoon per ship might not be good enough.

Pharnakes
Aug 14, 2009
They should have put the patriots in the NE, not the NW. At least then it could provide cover for their AWACs.

It's basically going to swing on how many eagles the Japanese can get up, I think currently they actually have only one eagle ready? They will need at least 4-6 to have a solid chance for the phantom strike to get through, and with their extended maintenance cycles that might just not happen.

Hav
Dec 11, 2009

Fun Shoe
<starts to bite nails>

We should start considering a soundtrack for the last stages. Obviously ‘flight of the valkyries’.

‘Big in Japan’ by Alphaville.

Dawncloack
Nov 26, 2007
ECKS DEE!
Nap Ghost
The Mars part of the Symphony of the planets.

wedgekree
Feb 20, 2013
So basically th Russians are going to try and turtle and setup as much of a CAP as they can and the Japanese are going for a coordinated alpha strike while trying to use thier planes/subs already up as spotters? I think?

Loxbourne
Apr 6, 2011

Tomorrow, doom!
But now, tea.
If they're smart, they'll saturate the convoy's defences by launching their harpoons as the strike goes in.

Saros
Dec 29, 2009

Its almost like we're a Bureaucracy, in space!

I set sail for the Planet of Lab Requisitions!!

They have uh, two subs with harpoons, five p3 with some sort of antiship missiles and the phantoms. If they can coordinate a time-on-target attack like they want and the CAP doesn't wipe their aircraft they can probably saturate the defenses and then some.

It looks to me like four eagles is all they have with a few more coming back online basically as the convoy arrives so they could theoretically be later arrivals to the fight. It'll be tight.

Actually from another look the constant reorganisation of the convoy is really dragging down the convoys average speed so they can probably afford to wait which will give them enough eagles to sweep the skies clear.

Saros fucked around with this message at 16:00 on Jan 9, 2019

Pharnakes
Aug 14, 2009
If the Japanese decide to really go balls to the wall and wait for the second batch of eagles to be ready they should be able to sweep the skies quite easily, albeit with heavy losses. As it is it looks like they are going to blink and launch with what they have though, which will be much, much closer.

10 eagles would clown over the Russians, but 4 will be, exciting.

Pharnakes fucked around with this message at 22:51 on Jan 9, 2019

ManifunkDestiny
Aug 2, 2005
THE ONLY THING BETTER THAN THE SEAHAWKS IS RUSSELL WILSON'S TAINT SWEAT

Seahawks #1 fan since 2014.
Regardless the outcome, this has been fun to watch as an observer. If this isn’t too onerous I hope you can cobble together another scenario.

Loxbourne
Apr 6, 2011

Tomorrow, doom!
But now, tea.
It's always a sign of good scenario design when it comes down to the wire in a natural fashion.

Incy
May 30, 2006
for other Out
Are the Japanese going to attack the convoy in time?

This is going to be a nail biting finish

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22
I’m glad you didn’t escalate!

I wonder if the Japanese subs will get close enough to trip the sonobuoy line.

Yooper
Apr 30, 2012


It'll be close, but they should launch in time. Depending on Oscars path it'll be close. So far the buoys haven't picked up poo poo.

sincx
Jul 13, 2012

furiously masturbating to anime titties
.

sincx fucked around with this message at 06:35 on Mar 23, 2021

Pharnakes
Aug 14, 2009
Take heavy losses but win handily is my prediction.

V. Illych L.
Apr 11, 2008

ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

i do appreciate the effort you make with the custom headers yooper

they are consistently very good

Yooper
Apr 30, 2012


V. Illych L. posted:

i do appreciate the effort you make with the custom headers yooper

they are consistently very good

Thanks! It's just a GIS and a guess at what the round may hold.

Final Round

Depending on the teams this coming round may be the last. Once everyone is locked in to a mission plan I'll run it through to completion. The Russians are roughly 1:09 from beach landing. If any combat asset still survives I'll judge and see,

Pharnakes
Aug 14, 2009
It does seem like mutual annihilation is very much a possibility.

Loxbourne
Apr 6, 2011

Tomorrow, doom!
But now, tea.

Pharnakes posted:

It does seem like mutual annihilation is very much a possibility.

Which would be a victory for Japan, at least as far as the scenario is concerned.

wedgekree
Feb 20, 2013

Loxbourne posted:

Which would be a victory for Japan, at least as far as the scenario is concerned.

Victory conditions so long as the Russians can't land enough forces to reiforce the island that counts as a win for the IJN. How the future 'campaign' counts for them with all the maulings they've taken is another matter entirely.

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Gideon020
Apr 23, 2011
Outta curiosity, is this taking place in the same universe as a certain group of Hayard-Gunes?

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