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 to answer my own question in the midterm thread. Is this a blue wave or is it the result of trump wins in 2016 being reversed?Flipped R 2016, held 2018: FL-2 FL-18 NA-2 Flipped D 2016, held D 2018: FL-7 FL-10 FL-13 IL-10 NV-4 NH-1 NJ-5 VA-4 None of the R pickups in 2016 went back in 2018. This is more accurately viewed as the aftermath from the Obamacare slaughter of 2010, with the early-decade gerrymanders breaking down.
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Nov 7, 2018 15:53
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Liquid Communism posted:Decades of gerrymandering will do that. E: Liquid Communism posted:No. You use the Senate to gerrymander the House districts, and thus depress voter turnout by making it look like nothing matters. Harik fucked around with this message at 16:11 on Nov 7, 2018 |
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Nov 7, 2018 16:08
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They need to check the senate. Republicans won long-term there with +3, making a lot easier for them to hold in 2020 despite having to defend 22 seats. They also managed to keep Florida for the 2020 gerrymander which is a lot of house seats for the next decade. More than NY this upcoming census. Every vacant judiciary seat is going to federalist-annointed ghouls which will skew the lower courts for at least as long as SCOTUS. On the bright side we can basically ignore Chuck loving Schumer for the indefinite future, as he has absolutely nothing to do that's not making bad press releases. Battles, wars, etc. When people are upset they have good reason to be: most of what was won tonight was in the 2-year terms that can flip back just as easy if dems poo poo their pants in 2020.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:24
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:been there for two years, glad to see you could join the conversation For one, it won't happen. For two, it assumes a view of rural states that's ahistoric. The GOP is increasingly the party of the white suburbanite. Their policies gently caress agriculture, gently caress poor whites, gently caress women and kill them all off with pill addictions. Go after those "blood red" small states with senate candidates pitching policies that help those people directly. Pro-ag bill which is being shredded by the republicans, pro treatment, pro-women and talk directly to people in poverty. Look at the successes Eugene Debs had a century ago in areas that are completely written off by the national democrats.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:38
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evilweasel posted:Yeah this is why as much as i hated red state democratic senators, we badly needed them: 2020 is a huge inflection point and stuff like voting rights reform and PR/DC statehood are so directly tied to the viability of the Democratic party that they'd probably support those and no Republican, however 'moderate' will. If Tester and Sinema can pull out wins despite being slightly down in the count right now (I have little hope for a Nelson recount but Tester and Sinema aren't dead yet), it might be possible to do this: I think we can swing 52-48. I don't know we can swing 54-46. It's worth trying in some of the nearly-empty states. Won't cost that much and it's not like there's anything to lose.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:48
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AlBlaybleCharacter posted:I didn't buy this one but I am gonna run with it so I bought the name  It's pretty telling that ORANGE MAN BAD was not really an obvious alt-right plant. If it weren't a /pol/ meme it's something I could see carrying to a protest for the humor of it. Hell, even the NPC meme itself feels more like "we, the faceless and ignored" rather than "those people without souls". You have to be really online to know what it really means.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:53
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:those are absolutely things that need to be done, no question here Well, no. You're not being serious about democracy, but there's no reason you can't leverage small states in the midwest the same as states like CT, RI. There's no fundamental reason that not living on the coast means you can never vote for progressive policies, it's just that those policies are verboten by the elite donor class so you can't run on them. McCascall running away from minimum wage and getting slaughtered for it comes to mind. Clearly that was a progressive policy her state embraced wholeheartedly.
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Nov 7, 2018 16:56
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friendly 2 da void posted:It's weird how slanted the national narrative is against the Democrats. Here's an angle that I don't see enough of: 2018 winners: robert aderholt bradley byrne martha roby debbie lesko martha mcsally david schweikert rick crawford french hill steve womack bruce westerman doug lamalfa tom mcclintock david valadao doug lamborn gus bilirakis matt gaetz steve king thomas massie steve scalise justin amash tim walberg steven palazzo vicky hartzler blaine luetkemeyer jeff duncan joe wilson michael burgess john carter louie gohmert kenny marchant rob bishop david mckinley maybe winners jeff denham promoted: mulvaney losers steve knight mike coffman dennis ross chris mcdaniel (to a primary challenger. eliminated for the runoff) pete sessions retirees: ed royce lynn jenkins joe barton blake farenthold ted poe lamar smith diane black ... oh.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:22
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Nemo Somen posted:So I want to make sure I have the proper takes from last night. Florida (Now 3rd largest state) losing the governorship for the 2020 redistricting is a massively understated loss.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:31
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evilweasel posted:those are reasons to challenge the results and/or say that they are illegitimate, but they are not reasons to assert that a runoff is happening. a runoff should happen. but that doesn't mean one is happening. Tampering with the vote is a Assisting the disabled in absentee voting: 5-10 years.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:34
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WampaLord posted:Can you not tell me how I'm allowed to feel? Don't worry, the loss of florida will hurt everyone over the next few years. Between running up the score in the senate making 2020 much harder and gerrymandering the 3rd largest state for a decade, it's a nationwide disaster.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:42
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pumpinglemma posted:If I had absolute power over elections I'd ban voting machines altogether, not just try and make a good one. There are no good ones. feature, not bug, etc etc. Even "fair and non hackable" voting machines serve two critical purposes: 1) Making it reasonable to mis-allocate resources in a way that you can't do with paper ballots to make sure white people can vote and everyone else stands in line for hours. 2) grift. Way more money at stake than a printing contract.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:44
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corn in the bible posted:Lol please tell me more about how O'Rourke getting a bunch of Dem and DSA people elected statewide and going +14 from the last Texas Senate election means leftism is a lost cause Also that Beto was leftist except compared to Texas. If he were a candidate in most other senate races he would be fairly unremarkable except for his age.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:52
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:His support for M4A makes him progressive by almost any state's standard. quote:Healthcare is a moral question that transcends politics – it is a basic human right, not a privilege. 4.3 million Texans – including over 600,000 children – can’t see a doctor, or when they do, they’re so sick they have no choice but to go to the Emergency Room where the cost will be many times more expensive and the outcome will be worse. * Texas needs to stop rejecting the Obama medicare expansion * Sure, change something about healthcare and I'll go for it but I have no real preference. His platform is about average for dems. M4A if it polls well enough and a bill is in front of him, but don't expect Beto to be the one sponsoring it.
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Nov 7, 2018 17:58
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:I don't think that's average for Dems unless the Dems have massively improved on this issue since the last cycle. It doesn't make him bad - I'd be thrilled to have someone who won't actively poo poo up the effort - but he's not super progressive. E: His early campaign was a lot more progressive than his general position, which is tripping people up: https://twitter.com/betoorourke/status/957834180347547649
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Nov 7, 2018 18:05
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Unoriginal Name posted:So we can defund ICE with budget control now, right? You can play the shutdown game of chicken over it, but Dems lose that every time.
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Nov 7, 2018 18:10
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Florida recount: the loser gets it it for free if the tally is within 0.5%. If that ends up within 0.25% it goes to a hand recount because that's somehow "better" and more reliable. Since Nelson has indicated he will request the recount, and the first recount is via machine, does that change the governor's race as well or is it limited to the race being recounted? I live here and I don't actually know how that works.
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Nov 7, 2018 18:17
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corn in the bible posted:Just that race that went to a recount  I'm going to laugh until i puke.
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Nov 7, 2018 18:28
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TulliusCicero posted:
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Nov 7, 2018 18:34
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twice burned ice posted:Is there anything to this? You can drat sure bet there will be more poo poo turned up, but it really doesn't matter: there's no recourse, period. If you get away with it on election day then there's no mechanism to revote or correct for the bullshit. All you can do is look like sore losers. At absolute best you can force the state to honor provisonal ballots and MAYBE accept statewide votes for people who ended up voting for the wrong local races for whatever reason.
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Nov 7, 2018 18:46
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No matter how tempting that hit of hopium looks, do not fall for it. It's really unlikely that a recount will change the result of either race.
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Nov 7, 2018 18:54
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Bottom Liner posted:You think Mueller is stupid enough to not have a bunch of failsafes? E: Also hit me up on twitter @HarikMCO if you're the guy I'm thinking of in orlando.
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Nov 7, 2018 21:40
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evilweasel posted:my basic point is, democrats have won in florida so "close loss" is something you can consider blaming on the candidate and suggest a better candidate might have won. that's hard in florida where you have gillum and nelson having the same amount of votes, but it's not immediately obvious that's wrong. it's not a knock on gillum - I don't know why he lost and I think he was a great candidate - but it's not immediately and obviously wrong to say "well, he lost, they should have nominated someone else." saying that about someone who only barely lost in Georgia is immediately and obviously wrong and is just like "have you heard of Georgia?" I don't know if you can get any more moderate than republican->independant->dem no really honest, but he came up short 1.2 million votes that gillum turned out. At some point you're just arguing that "hypothetical campaign obama, except white because florida is very racist would have won".
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Nov 8, 2018 22:28
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evilweasel posted:i invite you to read my post again, which very specifically makes sure to make clear that i am not saying the thing you're complaining about here
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Nov 8, 2018 22:52
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E: PPJ requested this end.
Harik fucked around with this message at 23:02 on Nov 8, 2018 |
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Nov 8, 2018 23:00
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Spaced God posted:That's important and therefore will never be discussed in this thread I'm not sure it's going to make a difference, except that now there's a specific policy to point to in court rather then going by what they were doing already. Wasn't the decision to refuse entry at legal crossings then fast-track deportation to anyone caught crossing illegally specifically designed to prevent claims of asylum?
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Nov 8, 2018 23:08
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Koalas Massacre posted:I am catching up, what did Colbert do?? The usual, "your lives are worth less than my commute times" poo poo that the rich always do.
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Nov 8, 2018 23:12
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Rednik posted:Talk me down from getting my hopes up about Sinema. Remember when Virginia's supreme court decided "No actually we do want that ballot we rejected" was legal at the last second, and they grabbed the legislature on the back of a cointoss? Recounts are a neverending source of stress and dismay. All these seats are lost, there's too much ground to be made up. If there's a crack in this hellworld reality and one actually flips, treat it as the loving miracle it is. Ignore it until there's breaking news. You'll kill yourself stressing over it.
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Nov 9, 2018 02:46
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Crow Jane posted:Why are you responding to Leon Trotsky 2012? Now that we're at the "Blame the democrats for everything we did" portion of the narrative, who can guess what's up next? I'm going to assume that when Nelson doesn't quite make up enough ground Scott is going to take a victory lap that he "prevented a stolen election" with his bullshit intimidation tactics.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:17
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eke out posted:yeah there's not actually anything wrong with this, it appears they pretty legitimately did not comply
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Nov 9, 2018 22:34
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Blurred posted:Jesus Christ. This is the President of the United States literally doing violence to the integrity of his nation's democracy. I know that we've become desensitized to his authoritarian bullshit over the past couple of years, and that it's difficult to treat everything he says with the full degree of outrage that it would normally deserve, but it should be a huge loving deal - in any time line - when a president publicly says that he doesn't accept the results of an election. Oh he was just talking about Democrats getting any votes at all, wasn't he?
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Nov 9, 2018 22:37
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Teddybear posted:It's also why there's the reputation of "Florida Man;" it's way, way easier to get police reports and mugshots in Florida than in other states, which means that the wacky poo poo that happens everywhere gets publicly reported in Florida and spread wide. It really comes down to "we shouldn't be punishing people above and beyond the legal framework" but good luck getting "were you ever arrested?" banned from hiring forms.
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Nov 9, 2018 22:41
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Mind_Taker posted:Yeah everything I’m reading about this Broward nonsense (even before the court order) suggests to me they are not complying with the law and I’m not sure why. I assume it’s just incompetence and hope it’s nothing fraudulent because Republicans will jump all over the VOTER FRAUD narrative (while conveniently ignoring voter suppression).
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Nov 9, 2018 22:47
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I'm driving down the road, a road I've driven a hundred times. I hear a song I don't like and I reach down to change the station. In that moment, I hit the car next to me and we both overreact and end up making it so much worse than a side-swipe. Clearly, I'm at fault, I was distracted. Every day on the traffic report I hear of an accident, often fatal, on a particular curve of the interstate where the faded lane markings go one way, and the clear pavement lines go another. Traffic camera archives show that the majority of accidents happen when two cars follow opposing "lanes" into each other. People dig into it, and find out it's actually the most deadly stretch of road in the entire country. This is a constant argument in the thread, with "individual responsibility" posters treating each death as an atomic event, unconnected to any other. Hyper-focus on any single accident will reveal that that driver did in fact make a mistake, and thus they are justified. There is no reason to fix the road, they argue, because each driver should have chosen to pay more attention. At most, perhaps re-paint the lines again. That doesn't cost them anything and now they've "done something" about the problem. Other posters argue that the sheer disparity in excess accidents means something systemic is wrong, and that a radical change is needed to the highway to address the fact that it kills more people per mile than anywhere else in the nation. "If it is the fault of distracted drivers", they say, "why does it keep happening in one place?". This argument is repeatedly shouted down, insulting those posters as being lovely drivers and the cause of all those deaths. Those posters fire back that they haven't personally been in an accident and they're talking in sweeping statistics. While imperfect and not a 1:1 analogue, everyone should be clear on what I'm discussing here.
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Nov 11, 2018 11:41
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Tibalt posted:Not pulling the lever kills 5 people. Pulling the lever kills one. Get outta here with your Kantian maxims and pull the lever. I'm rather pleasantly surprised at how many different directions people took my metaphor. For the record, the decision was to spend umpteen billion dollars modernizing I4 to cut down on design disasters like offramps backing up into high-speed traffic and the insane zipper-merge of NB+SB interstate having to cross each other for EB/WB expressway. It meant: an individual voter can make an incorrect choice. Statistically significant numbers of voters are a systemic problem that only the party can fix. No amount of screaming at random forums posters will undo the 40,000 votes that went third party in Florida and changed the outcome. What about the party is causing tens of thousands of people to vote "wrong"?
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Nov 11, 2018 14:33
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Harton posted:So thread! I have a voting question I think you can help me with. I put in an offer on a lake house up in Michigan this weekend. Theoretically if I were to get an accepted offer and buy it could I register to vote up here instead of Indiana where I will be living most of the time? I figure as long as I don’t vote in both states I should be good right? Also after Donnelly’s horrific loss I believe my and my wife’s votes would be better placed in Michigan where maybe we can help it from going red again, along with governor races and the senate.
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Nov 11, 2018 14:35
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Hi thread, since we continue to not understand basic things like "how voting work?" and "what are numbers, really?" let's have a quick refresher. This is page two hundred and twenty eight since the midterm. Even if every single post was from a unique poster (which clearly is not the case) that's under 10,000 people spread out throughout the world. Let's imagine all those 10,000 imaginary posters were living in florida, and they all (except for you) were the "dems bad" types who, despite overwhelming evidence ITT to the contrary, all decided to abstain from voting because Dianne Wasserman-Schultz didn't personally show up at their doorstep with an engraved invitation and a rock-solid contract to push the exact policies they wanted. This still would not have made a loving difference in the election. Do you understand that? Do you really, truly and honestly understand that? Because holy poo poo I see so much venom spit at posters here you'd think they personally made the difference that got us into hellscape. I've got a phrase for you, one that you need to repeat every night before bed, and every morning before you get moving. Tattoo it on the inside of your eyelids if that's what it takes to actually remember this: statistical numbers of people making a choice are not individual actions. We cannot have an honest discussion about the state of politics if there's people who do not understand this basic fact. It is the responsibility of each voter to make a choice to the best of their limited ability and in a sea of false, contradictory or deliberately misleading information. When statistical numbers of people make a choice contrary to what you did, it's not due to them being mentally defective, it's due to parties appealing to their interests which may not align with yours. Or they may, but people don't play 15th dimensional chess and vote for the immediate term, and while this may be a shocker to you, "I will bring the jobs back" is an immediate-term claim even if it is a lie.
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Nov 11, 2018 23:43
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Between now and 2020 what can be done? Aside from a possible runoff and the occasional special election, the most important thing I think going forward would be an organized boycott of advertisers on white nationalist outlets like CNN and the NYT. If we see yet another Nazi on a CNN roundtable, capture every advertiser in the halfhour around it and boycott them. When the NYT runs another "friendly nazi next door who just wants to peacefully gas everyone who doesn't look like him why can't you agree to disagree" boycott every advertiser in that days paper. There's no other way to get the media to stop being so incredibly lovely. E: There will be another "butter emails" in 2020, where the media bothsides trumps continual stream of shitheadedness vs probably made-up "scandal" for his opponent. Boycott the gently caress out of them for that poo poo and do it as loudly as possible. Harik fucked around with this message at 00:03 on Nov 12, 2018 |
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Nov 12, 2018 00:00
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Shifty Pony posted:They sometimes release lists of the accounts that get caught and invariably they have been full of accounts which were flagged as bots by news agencies or researchers months earlier. There's some shithead injecting bot accounts into the #campfire hashtag with GIS'd photos and "have you seen my grandad?" Cut & pasted from legitimate grieving relatives. I'm sure @Samuel8176259 is a real person, twitter, who actually registered yesterday just to post that.
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Nov 12, 2018 00:07
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Brony Car posted:What about Fox News? Willa Rogers posted:What are your top ten things to try to get them not to do? Don't get me wrong, I'd love to boycott over that garbage but it's a harder question to clearly answer than "Is literal nazi Richard Spencer being given airtime y/n?" Harik fucked around with this message at 01:25 on Nov 12, 2018 |
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Nov 12, 2018 01:22
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