Potato Salad posted:

quote:

took the day off preemptively today and am taking the chance to catch up on the thread. here's what happened in texas yesterday:

as i posted in here, i got up early and did some work for beto. a couple of my friends are (were, i guess) paid campaign staffers or otherwise super-volunteers, so we met up, harassed UT students to go vote, and then knocked on some doors in target neighborhoods. we learned that the polling place in the neighborhood we were canvasing in was loving up in the morning, so we called it in to the texas civil rights project and i guess they got it fixed. in the evening we drove by the polling station and handed out water and snacks to the workers and people standing in line - there was still like an hour wait for people in line when the polls closed.

we went to a bar to watch the results where there was some democratic party thing going on - not sure if it was beto-specific or not. the reaction when they called the race for cruz was very muted, and it seemed like a lot of people were calling bullshit on it, as i mentioned in here at the time. to answer the question posed then, i had consciously set my expectations at what i thought was a reasonable level - i thought cruz would win, but by less than the polls were saying, which is about what wound up happening. i think most of the people i know in/around the campaign had about the same expectations, but of course they were more invested in the outcome than i was so it was harder for them to see. but i think they recognize the value of what they put together, both for this campaign and for the future, so there were good vibes all around. a lot of strangers involved with the campaign were really worrying me - i'm in a facebook group for volunteer opportunities for the campaign and a lot of people in there were starting to seem really unhinged in their expectations.

i can't say enough how much of a success this campaign was. a <3% margin for a republican statewide candidate is ludicrous. but beyond that, beto got enough people involved and engaged to drag two democratic state reps across the finish line in districts that were specifically designed to favor republicans (and tx-23 could still go D as well). three statewide officials, in races where margins are typically in the high teens, were within five points. they'll still gloat, and none of them should have even sniffed victory in a just world, but i think they're genuinely scared. in the state legislature, we knocked off two tea party republicans in the senate, which means dems only need to bring one R across the aisle to block a bill in the generally worse chamber. (this would have been a much bigger deal if we hadn't hosed up the special election from last month, but it's still big.) (also weirdly one of the dems that picked up a seat composed the music for the original english dub of dragon ball z or something like that?) and the state house flipped a dozen seats, which is huge because they'll get a lot more leverage in picking the next house speaker.

beto also showed two important things: that a democrat doesn't have to a) cling to the middle to be competitive in a red state, or b) accept pac money to run a relatively successful campaign. i hope those lessons, as well as the general sense of the importance of voter engagement, etc., carry on into future races.

2020 definitely doesn't look as rosy - ted cruz really does rub people the wrong way in a way that cornyn doesn't, and i honestly don't think beto is interested. either of the castros, as has been mentioned, would probably be too cautious/selfish to give it a go, and i don't think they have the style for it anyway. mark cuban might be dumb enough to give it a go but for my money i'd rather vote for gregg popovich

i also got one compliment on my stupid president shirt

Demon Of The Fall posted:

Bredesen got stomped last night in Tennessee. I was hoping my state would make it a little closer, but woof. This place is full on Trump country, and that makes me sad as hell.

axeil posted:

Who's ready to flip the VA legislature into a Dem majority and give us another trifecta?

We need 2 pickups in the House of Delegates and 1 in the Senate for a majority. I think we can do it next year

friendbot2000 posted:

Do I hear the beginnings of a Goonsquad Coalition? Someone call our glorious leader Fancy. It is time for war!

Solaris 2.0 posted:

Hopefully Fancy is logged off the internet for a month and taking a much deserved break.

With that said, yes we should all get Goodnsquad back together for 2019!

Solaris 2.0 posted:

Hopefully Fancy is logged off the internet for a month and taking a much deserved break.

With that said, yes we should all get Goodnsquad back together for 2019!

friendbot2000 posted:

Godspeed General FancyPants! Get some rest friendo!

Well, one thing is for sure, we have to make sure Danica Roem keeps her seat. I would crawl through fire for her to get elected to office. I refuse to allow the state house to be taken back by regressive CHUDs. It ain't happening. So if they are any Virginia Goons who are lurkers that want to pitch in and do some work, drop me a PM.

Demon Of The Fall posted:

Bredesen got stomped last night in Tennessee. I was hoping my state would make it a little closer, but woof. This place is full on Trump country, and that makes me sad as hell.

my bony fealty posted:

I genuinely think he dug his grave deeper by coming out in favor of Kavanaugh. Still would have lost, but that unforced error likely turned off lots of folks who might have bothered to show up and didn't. Conservadem candidates are all dumb.

Lycus posted:

Haha, how did I miss this?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iceoLxX6exA

Lycus posted:

Haha, how did I miss this?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iceoLxX6exA

Quorum posted:

Yes! Mayor Max is in fact the mayor of the tiny town of Idyllwild. Constitutionally, humans aren't allowed to run for mayor in Idyllwild, they're only allowed to run their pets. It's mostly a ceremonial role, though, and not surprisingly most of the actual work is done by the human chief of staff, but still.

Lance of Llanwyln posted:

Well, the CT governor race was a lot closer than expected, but Ned LaMont won in the end. Just as importantly, the Democrats took back control of the State Senate(it had been in an 18-18 tie) and expanded their majority in the State House.
https://www.courant.com/politics/elections/hc-election-connecticut-general-assembly-20181101-story.html
I won't quote the article here, because it's local CT news and most people won't care about the details(I hardly care, except for the fact that I'm *still* represented by a Republican in the State House )

In any case, the State Democratic Party has the power to do whatever it wants to. Hopefully that will mean good things.

The Glumslinger posted:

A guide to the 2020 Senate race

Solaris 2.0 posted:

This was an incredibly informative post, thank you. Based on that list, Dems getting the Senate in 2020 looks tough. You mentioned a few possible primary challengers on the liberal end. Outside of the retiring Rs, do you see any that may get a primary challenge from the MAGA crowd? Such as Thom Tillis?

Shimrra Jamaane posted:

Anyone know what the status is on the AZ election? Can these uncounted votes put Sienna over the top?

The Glumslinger posted:

A guide to the 2020 Senate race

Iowa
Incumbent Joni Ernst (R)
Tea Party senator, you might remember her as the Hog Castration lady. After Tom Harkin (D) retired in 2014, she beat her challenger by 9%. This seat isn't as bad as it looks, 3/4 Iowa house seats went for Dems last night. They narrowly reelected a Republican governor last night, so it'll be tough. Iowa is gonna get a lot of attention from Dems due to the primary, so they might have a decent ground game to help put them over the edge if they can recruit someone good.

So, 2 easy pickups, plus another 3-4 more if things go well

quote:

The night before the election, the Democratic Party relayed my name to Becky Rauch in the
Porter County government as someone interested in working the polls the next day. I received a
call shortly before 9pm from Becky, who explained the process and offered to have me work as
a Democratic Judge in Center Township precinct 23. The polling location was Prince of Peace
Lutheran Church. She explained that since the Inspector for that precinct was a Republican, I
would need to assist in transporting the ballots back to the county building after they were
counted, and while on the call she emailed me a list of training videos on how to be a judge.
There were two precincts at my polling place, 23 and 32. Both inspectors were present, as were
all 4 clerks and three judges. Two of our judges were Democrats, one was a high school
student, and the fourth (the Republican judge for 23) did not arrive or respond to calls. I sent
Becky a text notifying her that this judge did not appear and received no response.
We opened our polling place at exactly 6:00am, and polling went quite smoothly for the entire
day, with the exception of the lingering knowledge that the absentee ballots were many hours
late. Those ballots never arrived. We closed the polling place at exactly 6:00pm. After about two
hours of waiting and calling County officials, we were finally told by two different officials to pack
up the polling location and come in. We did so, and I accompanied our inspector to the County
Administration Building.
We arrived in the parking garage shortly before 9pm. A crowded line of judges and inspectors
with suitcases had formed that spilled out into the parking garage. Most had not received their
absentee ballots. Those who had were being summoned to the front of the line. One man
angrily left the scene with a full suitcase in tow. A uniformed officer returned a short time later,
carrying only the suitcase. Someone walked through the line shortly thereafter carrying several
water bottles and a bundle of Subway sandwiches, which were just enough to allow anyone with
a health condition to eat something while we all waited.
We received the following explanations from County officials or others present, who did not
identify themselves. One said that this delay was caused by two departments, the Voter
Registration Office and the Clerk’s Office, not working together. Another said that she was a
kindergarten teacher who had been recruited by the County to count absentee ballots. A third
(quite a while later) said that the procedure had been just changed to allow poll workers to leave
without waiting for the absentee ballots to be counted, but the staff in the hallway continued to
call anyone whose absentee ballots had been delivered to their precinct to the front of the line.
After nearly two hours in line, we arrived at the tables set up in a small atrium at the center of
the building, where our suitcase was checked. This process went relatively smoothly, and we
left at approximately 11pm the same way we came in. The line of poll workers was nearly as
long as it was when we arrived.

The Glumslinger posted:

They might try again on Lamar Alexander, they tried to primary him in 2008 and 2014

But yeah, they really blew it in 2016, since that class should be the best Democratic map. They probably win an extra 4 Senate seats back then under a theoretical Obama 3rd Term election with good candidates. We gotta quit recruiting empty suits with no charisma, regardless of how many favors people owe them or how well they can self finance. But now we're getting into campaign finance reform, and thats a different kettle of fish

100YrsofAttitude posted:

I was pretty happy with the results from Connecticut. The only votes I truly felt good about were for Murphy for Senator and Tong for AG. I pretty much voted straight Dem with an exception to the Green party for Secretary of State if I'm not mistaken, but aside from the former two none of the candidates resonated with me.

I'll admit I only spent a good three hours researching the candidates before mailing in my ballot, and to be honest I know a lot that's going to happen isn't really going to impact me as an 8+ year ex-pat (and going strong...) but I do care about Connecticut and wanted the best for those that've stayed there.

So that said, I'm a bit worried about the governorship flipping to a republican

Turns out that was the case this morning when I checked the results, but the final count seems to have ended up with Ned Lamont coming out on top (I re-checked because I had forgotten their names). So I'm pretty relieved about that because that Stefanowski fellow seemed like bad news. I think that leaves Connecticut with the Democrats still in control of everything, and here's hoping that they can improve on things because from what little I know Malloy did not finish up beloved in any way.

Amused to Death posted:

This was all accomplished despite Governor Malloy being one of the least popular governors in the nation. Dems began the night with an 80-71 standing in the state House, and an 18-18 tie in the state senate, and it is now 92-59 and 22-12(two not decided yet) respectively. Also we elected our first black woman to congress.

Anyways, where is my legal weed, Ned?

The Glumslinger posted:

Colorado
Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R)
Kinda middle of the road republican who seems like he does his best to never get talked about at all. Beat a Democratic incumbent (Mark Udall) by about 2% in 2014. Colorado has continued to shift blue since then and if Democrats have any chance at all to retake the Senate, this is a must win seat.

Grape posted:

For my part I continue to be represented by a loony hippie granny. And am happy to be so.

SpitztheGreat posted:

A shot in the dark, but does anyone know where I can get raw data on the election results from last night? I'd like to do some analysis and visualization on local races in New York State, but I can't seem to find the actual raw data to let me do the manipulation. I contacted the board of elections to ask for the data, but you would think that there would be an easier source.

GHOST_BUTT posted:

Solid disagree on his being a middle of the road Republican. His voting record percentage wrt voting the party line during the Trump administration is in the upper nineties and any Democratic challenger could hammer him on how, by extension, he doesn't represent CO values. Gardner is a scumbag but the seat should be a layup.

friendbot2000 posted:

I want Danica to keep her seat because I think if she stays in the state house, she would be a great progressive primary challenger to Tim Kaine. Kaine is simply not doing enough on mental health, prescription drug prices, and labor. He made promises to me when I confronted him about it at a meet and greet. I think Danica is our gal to really get the progressive wing of VA in full swing.

Plus. We NEED more LGBTQ voices in Congress. Its our loving time now.

jokes posted:

https://nyenr.elections.ny.gov/

You might be able to find what you're looking for there. Typically the SoS office will give you breakdowns, but the analysis/visualization is really on the compiler of the data.

Lightning Knight posted:

Senator Roem would loving own.

Solaris 2.0 posted:

Could she run for state senate in 2019?