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So... who's ready for 20 Someone mentioned the VA elections already and I know we got enough commonwealthies around here that that will be well covered, but I want to highlight a few other things of importance. 3 Governors races Louisiana: 1st term Democratic gov of Louisiana running for reelection John Bel Edwards. By no means from the left end of the party it could still be the indicator of how things are on the ground in Louisiana that we didn't get in this election. Kentucky: Republican Matt Bevin gently caress Matt Bevin. Kentucky is a hard climb though much like Tennessee and for many of the same reasons Mississippi: Current Governor term limited, so technically an open seat but... yeah.. A Democrat getting above 40% in Mississippi is generally over performing and despite the African American base there isn't a wide bench here and you're mostly getting for a wealthy liberal lawyer campaigning on the hopes the Republicans nominate a a child molester. So.not a lot of big opportunities here. Louisiana, and Mississippi will also have their legislative elections (both under full Republican control) as well as the already mentioned Virginia (Republican controlled but very close) and the lower house in NJ (Dem controlled). There are also a bunch of Mayoral races(I have the feeling Chicago in particular may draw some interest) as well as the normal impossible sprawl of local election dates. While the big headliner races get all the media attention, you build the party from the base up and that means state and local. Go forth, and write when you find good works. 
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Nov 8, 2018 02:25
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| # ? Apr 28, 2024 02:50 |
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My local College Dems are celebrating that my town scored 700+ votes for Evers versus 350 for Walker. 
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Nov 8, 2018 03:12
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so i had some time to think about my state's (Iowa!) elections yesterday and I'm less mad than I was (although I'm still very mad). The Good: 1). Our Congressional Caucus switching from 3-1 Republicans to 3-1 Democrats is very good! And on top of that, I think all four of the Democratic candidates were really good politicians and very good selections for their area. Finkenauer and Axne on the surface look very similar (democratic women running for US congress for the first time against boring white business guys) but the way they went about their campaigns were very much tailored to their areas and should be a model for not just future Iowa races, but future races in the midwest more generally. Finkenauer leaned very heavily on her union credentials and really ran up the score with those people (who might have been closer to voting R than other democratic-leaning groups), and Cindy Axne carried the suburbs that were so important to lots of new D faces all across the country. Loebsack had the safest race (for once) and did his usual "appeal to people who miss their Poli-Sci professor" crowd and Chris Peters (who is a good candidate and could have won in a different district) wasn't ever really a challenge. And of course Scholten didn't win, but much like Beto O'Rourke in Texas, he took a bright red district and brought Democrats within 5 points, and did it by being genuine and truly caring about the people and the farmers in particular in his district, and not just focusing on how terrible his opponent was, but also talking about what could be done to help everyone in his district. Also like Beto, he had an outstanding ground game and travelled all over that district from Ames to Sioux City, from Onawa to Spencer. Again a very important message to send about winning elections in the future: You Can't Fake Showing Up. 2). Iowa isn't terribly sexist these days! 50% of our congresspeople and our governor are women, which shows that women have a good deal of political power in Iowa (even if Kim Reynolds is terrible!) 3). we uh... we won the State Auditor race? And kept the incumbent Treasurer and Attorney General? Sand winning was the only even mild surprise there so there's not much to gather from other victories because there weren't a whole lot, which leads me into... The Bad: 1). Fred Hubbell. If you take the number of vote that the four democratic congressional candidates got this year, and subtracted the number of votes Hubbell got, there is a difference of 88,777. Considering he lost by around 30,000, this is a huge, awful, terrible fuckup and something that we need to very closely analyze if we're gonna try again in four years. Iowa Starting Line (the premiere political left blog in the state) did a really good breakdown of the numbers, and came up with a list of possible reasons for this: quote:*Voters wanted a check on Trump, but thought Iowa was generally on the right track. The one on this list that I think makes the most sense is that first one. It's hard to do too much reading into ad slates, and I don't think voters were necessarily explicitly looking to vote for women (just that they didn't reject the idea when women were running), but when it comes down to it, the economy is good in Iowa and Republicans are reaping the results of that. The exception to that rule is the ag sector, which is being completely hosed up right now, but the blame for that seems to have fallen definitively on Trump's shoulders. This of course means that the next four years are going to be filled with the continued hollowing out of our education budget and our healthcare facilities, because 2). Republicans maintain a clean sweep of state government. They have control over the governor's mansion and both sides of the Iowa Congress, which lends credence to the "Iowans like their state's current direction, just not the country's" theory. This is likely to be 2 more years of disaster, with even more claim of a mandate because Reynolds is no longer an un-elected governor. I'm really not happy about this, and I really really hope they don't try to enact the death penalty again because I will drive to Des Moines and stand outside Kim Reynolds' house with signs until she gives that poo poo up. 3). That loving Nazi got elected. It was a long shot, of course, but it was still very disappointing to see him win once more. On the bright side, I'm pretty convinced that he's either going to retire before having to run again or get primaried by someone that doesn't force Chuck and Kim and Joni to say nice things about a white supremacist just because he's on their side. Also, JD Scholten will run again somewhere. I dunno when, but he ran too good a race to not pop his head up again. Let him and Beto run the DCCC IMO. So what should we take from this? No more rich white guys. Between Blum and Hubbell both losing, rich white business guys really had a bad day, and I've come to the conclusion that it's very hard to drum up any sympathy for a rich business guy in Iowa. There is an extremely important senate race coming up in 2020, and we have a lot of potential candidates, but we're going to need to find candidates that really connect with Iowans. I think a few of the Dems that ran in the primary might pop up again (Cathy Glasson and Ross Wilburn, come on down!) and obviously Scholten is going to have his name bandied about, and Finkenauer will be a year over the age limit in 2021 as well. I have a lot of faith in our back bench, even if none of them really came through the Iowa State Congress aside from Finkenauer. Just as long as Nate Boulton and Fred Hubbell stay the gently caress away.
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Nov 8, 2018 03:17
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Reposting for the benefit of a more on-topic thread: Based on NYT's current stats for unfinished races, House D's are looking at a final tally +34 or +35. The blue favored races are all at ~+1% or more except for one that's at +0.6. However, out of the R-favored races there are FOUR running at +0.6 or less. Which means that +39 is not impossible. However, at this late state I feel like even super close races like these are unlikely to be wrong. The NJ-3 race just called as an upset against an earlier R victory declaration was listed at D +0.9 by the Times.
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Nov 8, 2018 03:28
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I wish my portion of southwest Indiana performed better, but we managed to unseat the Republican president of city council in the city with 55% Republican registration AND straight-ticket voting.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:20
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Judicial elections are dumb, and also this is great: https://twitter.com/greg_doucette/status/1060334543876603905 The story of being too dumb to properly rig the system.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:31
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There's local party drama happening in my county! The local party decided this year to establish an office in my college town. Apparently there was a spat over this and one group of people in the party think it was a waste of time and resources. However, the College Dems did a bunch of work for canvassing and so another group thinks it was worth it and they should do more to be involved with the College Dems. We now have plans to attend the voting meeting tomorrow, so we can all vote for the cool old people who want to hang out with the College Dems.
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Nov 8, 2018 04:40
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Virginia: I'm really worried that we won't have enough turnout next year to reclaim the state house considering how loving gerrymandered this state is at the state level. There were a handful of bullshit races (coin flip) but without the turnout from a governor needing to be elected it seems kind of hopeless. Explaining to people that we need to win next year so we can redraw the state lines probably isn't going to register with most people.
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Nov 8, 2018 06:25
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Captain Cappy posted:Virginia: I'm really worried that we won't have enough turnout next year to reclaim the state house considering how loving gerrymandered this state is at the state level. There were a handful of bullshit races (coin flip) but without the turnout from a governor needing to be elected it seems kind of hopeless. Explaining to people that we need to win next year so we can redraw the state lines probably isn't going to register with most people. That is where you come in Captain Cappy! We are getting a VA Goon Squad together to start driving turnout early and often. I think we can do it in this state. We have a shitton of politically active young people in Northern VA that are just raring to loving go to change things. We have a lot of exciting now-incumbents to defend like Danica Roem AND we have the momentum from 2018 taking 3 congressional districts that...had no business being taken. If we don't stop to rest on our laurels we can take the Statehouse and the Senate and break this gerrymander. More and more people in our generation are realizing that local politics matter in our day to day than at the federal level.
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Nov 8, 2018 13:29
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Looking almost certain that Florida is heading for a hand recount. Hope you guys are ready for weeks of this poo poo. Totally worth it if Nelson and/or Gillum make it. Hell, even getting Nikki Fried into the Agriculture job would be huge. Not getting my hopes up, but I'm glad it's not over. Edit: also if you know anyone in Florida who submitted a provisional ballot tell them to make loving sure they've ratified it by 5pm today.
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Nov 8, 2018 17:06
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https://twitter.com/gmoomaw/status/1060583240195629057?s=19 https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1060584878796890113?s=19 Taking the VA Senate seems doable
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Nov 8, 2018 18:31
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Looking almost certain that Florida is heading for a hand recount. Hope you guys are ready for weeks of this poo poo. So excited to get to learn the minutia of Florida ballots again, 18 years was too long
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Nov 8, 2018 18:59
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The "independent" who lost re-election for Arlington County Board Seat to a Dem is  ing about people voting straight ticket and being ignorant of local politics.https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...m=.2d2f467b8408 quote:As Arlington County Board member John Vihstadt worked the polling places on Election Day, he had an inkling that this was not the same electorate that swept him into office four years ago and voted for him again just months later. lol, get hosed buddy.
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Nov 8, 2018 20:05
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An organized movement beating a loner. Imagine that.
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Nov 8, 2018 20:09
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The Glumslinger posted:So excited to get to learn the minutia of Florida ballots again, 18 years was too long https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1060611342661500928 https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1060609438468501505 https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1060610080079536128 loving Florida, I swear to God.
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Nov 8, 2018 20:24
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What exactly happens during a machine recount that you believe the second time is more accurate than the first? Or is it just that if the result changes, that indicates you need a hand recount to figure it out?
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Nov 8, 2018 20:25
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cheetah7071 posted:What exactly happens during a machine recount that you believe the second time is more accurate than the first? Or is it just that if the result changes, that indicates you need a hand recount to figure it out? Machine recount probably won't change poo poo, it's about getting to hand recount and being able to actually open up the ballots and inspecting them to see if they were legally tossed out.
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Nov 8, 2018 20:27
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1060611342661500928 Jfc Florida, I'm gonna keep hoping for that miracle
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Nov 8, 2018 20:29
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1060611342661500928 I really wish we could just gift north Florida to Alabama or something, so that the sane parts of Florida can have a .00000001% chance at not getting completely clobbered by climate change in my lifetime.
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Nov 8, 2018 20:57
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Handsome Ralph posted:The "independent" who lost re-election for Arlington County Board Seat to a Dem is Vihstadt sucks poo poo and is the reason we don't have a streetcar or any mass transit whatsoever on Columbia Pike except a crappy bus line so he can gently caress off. Voted against him in 2014, not that it did any good and I'm glad Matt beat him. cheetah7071 posted:What exactly happens during a machine recount that you believe the second time is more accurate than the first? Or is it just that if the result changes, that indicates you need a hand recount to figure it out? This is a rare case where a machine recount may actually do something because something like 30k ballots in Broward County didn't record votes for Senate and people think the machines may have just misread them.
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Nov 8, 2018 21:30
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axeil posted:Vihstadt sucks poo poo and is the reason we don't have a streetcar or any mass transit whatsoever on Columbia Pike except a crappy bus line so he can gently caress off. I made the mistake of commenting on the article, and now some guy's trying to concern troll me with "Well Matt says he's going to end childhood hunger in Arlington, if he doesn't, what are you gonna do about it?"  .
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Nov 8, 2018 21:39
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Yeah. Nelson has an outside shot with a machine recount, and a good one with a hand recount. Gillum is probably screwed, but hey--miracles happen. Will be REALLY happy if my governor isn't an Actual Nazi. Also, any votes Gillum picks up are probably votes for Nelson, too. I don't see a particularly robust Gillum/Scott demographic.
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Nov 8, 2018 22:20
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Handsome Ralph posted:Yeah that was my main rationale when I explained to people why I thought voting for him was dumb. He basically sat on the board to vote against projects he didn't like, and he never had any solid plans or solutions of his own. He was just a ""stop spending my money" shitter. gently caress'em. Even on ARLNow all the commentators seem to be either right-wing maniacs or joke-telling trolls which is baffling considering there's like 4 Republicans in the entire county.
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Nov 8, 2018 22:31
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loving Florida I swear here's to holding out for a miracle but drat both Florida and Texas are absolutely getting hosed by snowbirds and batshit insane people (these might be one and the same tho)
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Nov 9, 2018 01:05
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https://twitter.com/mdixon55/status/1060682437657792513?s=21 Jfc
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Nov 9, 2018 01:13
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SINEMA TAKES THE LEAD IN AZ! 350k votes still on the table, and NONE of those currently counted are from her stronghold in Pima county!! The lead is only ~2k votes so this still may not happen, but dear god, the odds are now truly in our favor. And the gap in FL just keeps getting smaller. I refuse to actually believe that Florida will flip, but if it does we'll be able to say the Republican Party took the most advantageous Senate election map in the history of this country and got ONE seat out of it.
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Nov 9, 2018 01:41
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Sanguinia posted:SINEMA TAKES THE LEAD IN AZ! 350k votes still on the table, and NONE of those currently counted are from her stronghold in Pima county!! This is loving proof that EVERY goddamn vote counts. I am so goddamn jazzed!
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Nov 9, 2018 02:53
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Holy poo poo it’s really starting to look like it’s gonna turn the way of Nelson and Scott and Rubio and the rest are gonna mudsling and sue their way into just erasing Broward County
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Nov 9, 2018 02:55
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I couldn't give a poo poo about Sinema, take a look at the Superintendent of public instruction race! If over the next four years we see continued activism to improve public education in Arizona, we'll have a strong candidate for Governor!
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Nov 9, 2018 02:58
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why do people think nelson is going to pull it out in florida? it seems like there isn't enough vote left and a recount won't do anything
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Nov 9, 2018 03:00
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axeil posted:why do people think nelson is going to pull it out in florida? it seems like there isn't enough vote left and a recount won't do anything If the machines bungled the tally then a hand recount could pull him ahead. There was like 1.5-3 percent in an entire county that left the Senate section blank on their ballot. That is...highly irregular.
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Nov 9, 2018 03:02
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So how the hell did Nelson get more votes than Gillum? I expected Gillum to get more than Nelson cause he was the more "exciting" candidate and Rick Scott is a big name in the state. I can imagine someone voting Gillum/Scott on a misguided "political outsiders are good" ideology but what kind of person votes Nelson/DeSantis?
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Nov 9, 2018 03:02
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axeil posted:why do people think nelson is going to pull it out in florida? it seems like there isn't enough vote left and a recount won't do anything I’d lean against Nelson winning but Rubio and Scott are both shook as hell and maybe it’s because they think there’s a decent chance Nelson could pull it off.
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Nov 9, 2018 03:03
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A machine recount wouldn't do much, but a hand recount would allow Dem lawyers to contest any votes that were omitted or thrown out for whatever reason. You've also got the whole issue of Broward county missing a bunch of votes as well as some teacher finding a box of provisional ballots that were just left behind in her classroom after election day.
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Nov 9, 2018 03:03
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Pakled posted:So how the hell did Nelson get more votes than Gillum? I expected Gillum to get more than Nelson cause he was the more "exciting" candidate and Rick Scott is a big name in the state. I can imagine someone voting Gillum/Scott on a misguided "political outsiders are good" ideology but what kind of person votes Nelson/DeSantis? Racism and incumbency
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Nov 9, 2018 03:04
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Pakled posted:So how the hell did Nelson get more votes than Gillum? I expected Gillum to get more than Nelson cause he was the more "exciting" candidate and Rick Scott is a big name in the state. I can imagine someone voting Gillum/Scott on a misguided "political outsiders are good" ideology but what kind of person votes Nelson/DeSantis? A racist democrat
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Nov 9, 2018 03:04
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https://twitter.com/DavidJollyFL/status/1060707551631867904
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Nov 9, 2018 03:05
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nachos posted:A racist democrat The prefferred term is dixiecrat thank you very much.
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Nov 9, 2018 03:05
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Handsome Ralph posted:A machine recount wouldn't do much, but a hand recount would allow Dem lawyers to contest any votes that were omitted or thrown out for whatever reason. Nelson's recount lawyer seems to be extremely confident that there's enough votes. Obviously he's got a horse here, but there's no gain for him running his mouth. Not getting my hopes up, especially if this gets litigated all the way up to the Supreme Court, but if it makes Republicans sweat, I'm all for it.
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Nov 9, 2018 03:12
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| # ? Apr 28, 2024 02:50 |
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Haven't seen much about this in the headlines, and the idea of an elected judiciary is iffy in some respects, but apparently Dems did a lot better than expected in State Supreme Court Elections. Liberal, or moderate to the point of conservative distaste, candidates won in Arkansas, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina and Ohio. North Carolina in particular is pretty important given the GOP legislature's constant attempts to overthrow the currently Dem-aligned state court. Don't know enough about Arkansas or Ohio to comment, and I'd love to learn more if anyone has any insight. http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-democrats-2018-state-supreme-court-elections.html
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Nov 9, 2018 03:30
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