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Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!
This was one of the best threads of the past couple years and I'm thrilled it's back!

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Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!
Judicial elections are dumb, and also this is great:
https://twitter.com/greg_doucette/status/1060334543876603905

The story of being too dumb to properly rig the system.

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!
Opensecrets has total 2018 spend at $5,725,183,133 including outside groups.

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!
Also,

AOC on Meet the Press posted:

Well, I think that there are a lot of districts in this country that are like New York 14, that have changed a lot in the last 20 years and whose representation has not.
Whole lot of machine districts that are fragile as hell and relying on old power structures that are no longer present in their districts or no longer have the strength they did in the 90s.

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!
Baby steps, but it looks like the MN DFL is contesting all except for a couple seats in November.

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1267957541230858240

The replies note that the secretary of state website is slow, and it's possible that the DFL is contesting all seats.

eta: Minneapolis Public Schools also voted to end their contract with MPD

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!
Hickenlooper/Romanoff in Colorado on 6/30 is generating the most :siren:Dems in disarray:siren: chatter currently.

Maine has Gideon vs Sweet, which sees the DSCC/NARAL butting heads with Justice Dems and Brand New Congress. Sweet is the only Justice Dems Senate endorsement this cycle.

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!

sexpig by night posted:

so are there any odds the good people win their races today in NY and KY or has covid pretty much wiped out progressive gotv efforts that can damage incumbent advantages?

I've been skeptical of the numbers on Booker since his internal was released a weekish ago. Based solely on those dynamics and what followed, I'm guessing he'll come up just short (4-8 pts)... but that's better than I'd have guessed two months ago. Hope I'm wrong.

Pessimism continues as I fear a failure to unite will hand Diaz the 15th, but I'm still not convinced he wins in November against a united opposition. I'm cautiously optimistic Engel gets bounced, and expect AOC to win with ease.

With that said, nobody knows how the gently caress things play out under COVID. I'll be F5ing all night though.

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!

Badger of Basra posted:

Didn’t New York send everyone a mail in ballot anyway?
My understanding is no, but that applications for absentee ballots WERE mailed to everyone? Full disclosure, not a New Yorker.

Also not clear to me that lowering the barriers to voting hurts the incumbent in situations like these. We'll see.

Or....
:f5: ALL NIGHT

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Kentucky is scheduled to have its results released on the 30th. Highest turnout in state primary history beating 2008 by around 200k.
:smith:

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!
https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1275581468530610177
Please please please

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!
https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1275601063299756033

Honestly this is the one I'd be happiest to be wrong about.

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!
Public polling in advance of Tuesday in Virginia

TMac at 49%, so far ahead of the field that even if all 27% undecided went to the second choice (Foy) he'd still win easily.

An interesting note is that in a poll where 18% of voters think VA Dems are too conservative (and 22% think national Dems are too conservative), Lee Carter pulls 1% of polled likely voters.

Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!
Wasserman calls it early:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1402405501598679042

Notes turnout looks well down compared to 2017.

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Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!

Doctor Butts posted:

What a loving worm he is.
The tweets "trashing the business multiple times" have all been cancel culture and appeasing the woke mob, blasting the business for sending her home instead of rewarding her for "muscling through feeling under the weather to come to WORK" as opposed to the lazy sit-at-home check cashers. I feel like even most of the anti-vaxx covid myth people are still on board with "if the person responsible for handing me my food is sick they should stay at home unpaid and fearing for their job so they're more motivated when they come back in". But maybe not?

He's since moved on to his two favorite topics: anti-refugee bullshit and liberal media investigations into Vance's nevertrump comments. I had thought that Dems had little chance in the race, but one of these clowns may be bad enough to McSally them the seat.

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