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Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

I feel bad for not voting in Virginia today. :ohdear:


(My local delegate and senator, both Democrats, ran unopposed and literally the only remaining race on my ballot was the Democratic Clerk of Court running against two randos)

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Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Quorum posted:

It's ok, settle in and hopefully we'll have some vicarious excitement coming along from our friends in competitive districts. :unsmith:

My delegate had an unserious Republican challenger but my Senate race was Joe loving Morrissey versus an unserious independent. I wrote in a local community activist, and Joe will win with 90% of the vote. Ugh. My best hope is he toes the party line and tries to actually deliver for his constituents in an effort to survive the inevitable primary from a well funded, prepared challenger in four years.

Goondolences.

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1191874808700686339?s=21

I don’t see him siding with the GOP on much, at least.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Yancey got demolished, holy lol

Fingers crossed on Lee, he was probably in the toughest race for incumbent Dems.

Danica Roem meanwhile is doing solid. Great to see her constituents come out in support of her.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

*exhales*

Tonight is looking to be a p. good night.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Quorum posted:

You guys I can't even really wrap my head around what having actual Democratic control of my state would look like. For literally my entire life Republicans have controlled at least one of the three main institutions of power in Virginia, and even as we've started to elect Democrats statewide they've maintained a stranglehold on the General Assembly and the House of Delegates in particular. There's so much stuff that could be done if we could do actual legislation.

It’s wild how the House nearly had a veto-proof Republican majority just two years ago.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time


:yeshaha:

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1192988217353613312?s=21

Before Tuesday everyone thought the D’s flipping the Senate was a given but flipping the House would be a tougher challenge.

It ended up being the opposite, with Democrats just scratching out a majority in the Senate but absolutely stomping Republicans in the House.

Not sure what to make of that, but I think if anything, it’ll lead to an even more progressive upcoming agenda as House Dems will be emboldened while Senate Dems might still feel some pressure to compromise, they at least don’t have to think about re-election for another 4 years so might be more willing to go along with whatever the House cooks up.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Jackson Taus posted:

I mean, the reason everyone thought flipping the Senate was a given was because John Bell was an easy pickup in SD-13 (we came within 5 points with a first-time candidate in 2015, and this time the incumbent retired and we were running a Delegate while the seat spent 4 years getting bluer demographically), not because the other battlegrounds were particularly easy.

I guess. But living in Hampton Roads, it was a bummer seeing two Senate seats stay R when pretty much everything else flipped. Especially Bill DeSteph winning, whose response to the mass shooting IN HIS DISTRICT was pretty much ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

At least Rocky Holcomb wasn't able to win back the seat he lost two years ago so he won't be going back to Richmond. On a related note, a white supremacist Holcomb was associated with also just lost his defamation lawsuit over being called a white supremacist, on account that it can't be defamation if it's true.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

More news from Virginia following Dem legislative wins: Republican state Senator won’t caucus with the GOP.

Unfortunately the article doesn’t go into much detail other than she didn’t want Tommy Norment to be minority leader. Not sure if she wanted someone to be more CHUDish or less CHUDish in the role.

Sounds like she’ll still vote GOP all things considered, so it’s not really a pickup for the Dems, as far as I can tell. But it is a little example of how fractured Republicans are becoming in this state, which should be encouraging to everyone.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

It’s really amazing what’s going on in Virginia right now. Too bad most of it is getting overshadowed by gun discourse.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Danica is also seeing some solid success on several of her bills.


https://twitter.com/pwcdanica/status/1221095508850225155?s=21

Really happy with how things are progressing in Virginia. It’s been a dismal couple of years so it’s nice to feel optimistic about something for a change.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Happy anniversary to the most WTF series of scandals I've ever encountered in state politics.

https://twitter.com/khafner15/status/1223275734208262150?s=20

This is a good retrospective that explains how Ralph "Blackface" Northam is... good?

quote:

“If I were to listen to the voices calling on me to resign my office today, I could spare myself from the different path that lies ahead,” he said. “I could avoid an honest conversation about harmful actions from my past.”

Instead, he began repeating with a consistent drumbeat that he was going to focus the rest of his term — which runs until January 2022 — on righting wrongs and addressing Virginia’s harsh, racist history.

And he's been doing just that.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

The Lemondrop Dandy posted:

Man, I've been looking, but I can't find when the (Dem) primary for Kentucky is. Be neat if Booker can snag it.

May 19, at which point it shouldn’t matter if Booker wins it or not (he won’t)

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Hahaha that makes a lot more sense.

As far as I can tell on the Kentucky Board of Elections site, it will still be on May 19, same day as the presidential primary.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Awesome, thanks for the explainer. Still amazes me to see how much change the Dems are accomplishing in Richmond.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

https://twitter.com/acosta/status/1225789366318047238?s=21

Thread is starting to sound like a broken record on how awesome Virginia has been this legislative session but I’m ok with that :q:

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

That’s a safe D district in the general, right?

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Edit: wrong thread thx awful app

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

https://twitter.com/governorva/status/1249083816788008972?s=21

Northam has been spending the day signing into law all the progressive bills the General Assembly passed. Kind of a shame he’ll still always be remembered for the blackface photo in his college yearbook.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Brony Car posted:

If he hadn't been caught doing that photo, though, he may never have been as cooperative. The guy was obviously eyeing national office and was likely going to tack a bit right as a result.


Reposting from a few pages back, but this article really spells out how the blackface scandal ultimately became a huge positive for progressive causes in Virginia:

https://twitter.com/khafner15/status/1223275734208262150

Northam is still endlessly mocked online, but the proof is in the legislative pudding. Aside from right-to-work shittiness, he really helped set the agenda and led Virginia to where it is today. And there's still more that can be done. The biggest uncertainty these days is just the long-term effects the pandemic and shutdown will have.

Speaking of pandemics, kudos to Wisconsin for showing up on election day. My joy is only tempered in knowing that a lot of people will needlessly get sick and more than a few will die because of the GOP and Supreme Court's actions.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Virginia has some sacrificial lightweight GOPers who will lose to Mark Warner in November.

On the House side I think the most interesting will be the VA-02 GOP primary which is where Scott Taylor will *probably* win. He’s trying to win his old seat back from Elaine Luria so that’s gonna be one to watch down the line.

Expect whoever to win to go whole hog for Trump, who won the district by 3 points in 2016.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Zero_Grade posted:

I'm assuming Warner doesn't have any progressive challenger(s)? With the leftward movement in VA, it would be great to be able to boot one of the senators out, cause they both mostly suck. I realize it may be too soon for that to happen though.

Nope, uncontested. Maybe next time he’s up there’ll be a solid progressive challenger to come out of the General Assembly.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Mitsuo posted:

That insulin price cap bill he wrote also goes into effect today IIRC, so even though it's an uphill battle, this is probably the best possible timing for him to make an attempt?

He can definitely push the conversation left in the primary, but everyone please adjust their expectations accordingly, he's entering an already-crowded field that includes popular former Gov. Terry MacAuliffe. Uphill battle would be an understatement. Plus due to weird state campaign laws, as a state legislator he's forbidden from raising money while the General Assembly is in session, which begins in, like, a week.


Goons and Twitter may love him, but that isn't as big of the Virginia electorate as one might hope.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Looks like COVID is leading to another special election...

https://twitter.com/goadgatsby/status/1345199609925292033?s=21

Southwest Virginia, so no chance it’ll flip but GOP will be down a Senator as the new General Assembly session gets underway.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

With Lee running for governor, does that mean he's abdicating re-election to his House district? Or can he run for both and once his gubernatorial campaign inevitably flames out he focuses back on his House race?

I ask because I feel like he's still vulnerable from a halfway decent GOP challenger, and I don't know how a Dem primary would swing. I worry that some typical corporate Dem will primary him from the right, when ideally another solid progressive would be the best choice. But I can only imagine a non-Lee progressive would run if he himself is not running for re-election.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Ballz posted:

With Lee running for governor, does that mean he's abdicating re-election to his House district? Or can he run for both and once his gubernatorial campaign inevitably flames out he focuses back on his House race?

I ask because I feel like he's still vulnerable from a halfway decent GOP challenger, and I don't know how a Dem primary would swing. I worry that some typical corporate Dem will primary him from the right, when ideally another solid progressive would be the best choice. But I can only imagine a non-Lee progressive would run if he himself is not running for re-election.


This got lost in all the Lee Carter discord, I am just curious what his quixotic gubernatorial run means for House seat. Is he still able to run for re-election? Does the GOP stand a chance of winning it back after losing it four years ago? Is there anyone aiming to primary Lee again?

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Ralph Northam endorsed Norfolk Delegate Jay Jones for attorney general over incumbent Mark Herring. This may or may not have to do with Herring calling for Northam's resignation over the blackface scandal a few years ago (and then Herring himself acknowledging he too, partook in the forbidden art of blackface).

Jones is young, progressive, and Black. If elected he would be come the first African American attorney general in Virginia's history.

Herring, for what it's worth, has been a decent attorney general imo. He helped Virginia move firmly into the pro-gay marriage column when he was first elected eight years ago and has made it his mission to clear the state's backlog of thousands of untested rape kits. More recently he's been very much on the side of getting rid of Confederate monuments.

Herring's original plan was to run for governor and open the door for Jones to take over at AG. But then T-Mac started sniffing around and Herring probably felt it'd be easier to stick with his current job. He's probably right.


So much like the governor's race with Foy and MacAuliffe, the progressive Jones is the better candidate for attorney general, but it's not the end of the world when Herring inevitably wins the primary.

Ballz fucked around with this message at 18:57 on Mar 5, 2021

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Fairfax is a lunatic and rapist. Can’t wait for him to be out of office for good.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

New poll is out showing MacAuliffe completely destroying everyone else. Even if everyone but Foy dropped out he’d still run away with it.

Herring has a sizable lead in the AG race although Jay Jones has been gaining ground. I have no idea who to root for in the LG race mostly on account of I have no idea who any of them are.

T-Mac and Herring winning their primaries isn’t necessarily a bad thing but it is disappointing when you feel like this state has gotten to the point where it doesn’t need to be led by old white dudes.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

I'm still voting for Foy in the primary, even if it's a lost cause. Maybe a better-than-expected showing might help her for something else down the road. I'll also be going with Jay Jones for AG. He also will probably lose, but it does look like a lot of undecideds are swinging hard for him.

I'll probably just flip a coin on LG at this point if they're both solid progressive choices.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Someone tell me who I should vote for Lt. Governor I still have no idea which is a progressive candidate that stands a chance of winning.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Blue Footed Booby posted:

Aside from Hala taking money from Dominion and being former DHS, and Sam Rasoul being a business guy I'm not seeing much in the way of differentiators in the races that aren't locked down. Any thoughts?

EDIT: DSA hasn't endorsed anybody, for whatever that's worth.

Yeah, feels like splitting hairs between the two. Hopefully they don't fully divide the progressive vote allowing some shitlib to win the nomination.

I think I'll stick with Rasoul. And go with Foy for governor (no chance sadly) Jones for AG (slim chance).

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Can’t wait to vote for a bunch of old white men in November.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Turnout is fine for what this is.

https://twitter.com/larrysabato/status/1402413237056983042?s=21

Looking like Ayala will beat Rasoul as well. Herring will probably win but his race looks to be the closest of the three.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Doctor Teeth posted:

why on earth did he run for governor lol. the leg. needs members who don't suck

lmao and he’s about to lose his own delegate primary.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

In other news in HD 79, DSA-backed candidate Nadarius Clark is currently leading the incumbent so we may be swapping one socialist out for another.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Ballz posted:

In other news in HD 79, DSA-backed candidate Nadarius Clark is currently leading the incumbent so we may be swapping one socialist out for another.

And the AP just called it for Clark. Steve Heretick, the incumbent he defeated, was a pro-weed Dem who… I don’t think was all that bad. But it’s nice to continue to push things left.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

Harold Fjord posted:

This is an extremely serious accusation. Do you have anything to back it up?

He tweeted about it endlessly. He still brings it up pretty regularly.

I have no idea if any of it is true because it was, well, him just tweeting about it endlessly.

Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

How nervous should Virginia be right now? Polls had been showing Dems with a comfortable lead and all of a sudden a Mary Washington poll shows the GOP leading every statewide race.

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Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

VitalSigns posted:

No that's exactly the polling I'm talking about.

Considering the margins that Democrats count on from African Americans, only 58% of them supporting the governor, and 30-some percent wanting him kicked out immediately is not a great sign.

Will be interesting to see whether those disastrous numbers only affect Northam or if they carry over to the party that defended governor blackface

Northam's poll numbers have been fine and certainly not "disastrous" as things like the pandemic response have been on people's minds a lot more than a 37-year-old college yearbook photo of unknown origins. Remember, that scandal broke in February 2019. Voters have already had two election cycles to "punish" the Dems for not abandoning Northam and both times they instead saw gains.

The only people who still bring up the blackface stuff in 2021 have been bad-faith conservatives who have also been flipping their poo poo over Northam bringing down all the Confederate monuments.

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