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Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
I couldn't give a poo poo about Sinema, take a look at the Superintendent of public instruction race!

If over the next four years we see continued activism to improve public education in Arizona, we'll have a strong candidate for Governor!

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Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

DACK FAYDEN posted:

How relevant is flipping AZ's Secretary of State?

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1061771926211907584

cause like, I can believe everything from "actually one hundred percent irrelevant" to "means that the 2020 election sure is gonna be a lot more competitive for quote reasons unquote"

There was some real goofiness with signature collection before the primaries, stuff like signatures being lost or Republican signatures being held off to the last minute to minimize the amount of time that they could be legally challenged.

I think the biggest impact will be in 2022, where there'll potentially be two high-profile Democrats in position to challenge Ducey.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

Lprsti99 posted:

Holy poo poo. I have no idea how relevant it is, but :eyepop: drat.

E: wait, that reaction is contingent on that being the absolute final count, if it's still ongoing then still good but not as :eyepop:.

It's a 424 vote margin, 162,000 votes left to count.

It's no sure thing, but depending on the method used to count the votes, (e.g, if they're all in a big pile and have been counted randomly, or if they've been going one precinct at a time) the trajectory indicates the office is going blue.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

evilweasel posted:

In most states, secretary of state (due to control of the election process) is a stunningly important role that flies under the radar. How important depends on how much that state's Republicans are willing to abuse it, something I can't comment on for AZ (on the one hand, they're republicans, on the other hand the state republicans seem to have largely played by the rules in this current count unlike the Florida Republicans).

Maricopa County now has a Democratic County Recorder, which has been a great improvement. He just got sued for contacting people who had a signature mismatch on their ballots and getting them fixed. The Republican party claimed it was unfair because the Republican counties just throw those ballots out.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

It's still a good take. If being one of the most conservative Democrats in the House was a good strategy, she should be leaving her opponent in the dust, not doing barely better than other Democrats running in statewide offices.

Edit:

Katie Hobbs is in the lead again!

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
I think it's important to compare spending on the Gubernatorial and Senate races if we're going to compare the two.
For the senate race, Sinema spent at least as much as her opponent, including outside spending.

For the Governor's race, Ducey outspent Garcia like crazy.

I'm willing to accept that Kyrsten's conservative stances have contributed to her ability to raise money, but the downballot races didn't need to sprint to the right in order to win.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
One thing I'm really happy to see is that, at least in Arizona, Republicans aren't getting free seats anymore. In 2020, if things keep moving this way, Arizona's legislature will be blue.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

Mahoning posted:

Are you ignoring the fact that a super progressive super charismatic governor candidate didn’t even perform as well as a lovely centrist Senator on the same ballot?

Which race are you talking about here?

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

Lightning Knight posted:

Everybody involved in doing poo poo like this should be persona non grata from the Democratic Party.

Actually I misread this post and the fact that it happened in multiple states is mind-blowing and deeply damning.

I'm going off memory, but these were a big deal internally.

A Democratic state senator endorsed Ducey four years ago and the County party ended up voting to change their policy on primary endorsements specifically to endorse her opponent.

This is not a good time to be a Democrat who endorses Republicans, and I'll see what I can find out about the other two people mentioned above.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

BlackHattingMachine posted:

Anyone in here a county chair for the party? I've been asked to take over for an old timer and he's not interested in showing me the ropes. Any information or help available?

First, congratulations. Project Goon Caucus is proceeding nicely.

How big are counties in your state?
I'm in Arizona, so the Maricopa County Chair is a huge deal, representing an area with 4 million people in it.

If you're one of those states that has tiny counties, I'm the vice chair for a legislative district, with about 200,000 people in it.


I'd reach out to the chairs of other nearby counties, and start going to their meetings to learn more about how they run things.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

BlackHattingMachine posted:

My county is 14k. Our central committee has about 15 members. Extremely rural in Steve King country.

I haven't decided to take it yet, I'm trying to get an idea of the time commitment since I'm working anywhere from 50 to 70 a week and don't want to half rear end it.

Do it.
If you need help, delegate. This is an opportunity to find out if you have leadership potential; worst case, you don't.

I think we need to make a thread for extremely local politics. There's a lot we could share about the small stuff.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

Quorum posted:

Honestly this thread doesn't move very fast when there's not a major election happening, and I'd say hyperlocal politics are just as relevant here as senate and state leg stuff. If you've got any references or resources that would be useful to people getting their boots on the ground, I can add them to the OP, too.

That's true.
I think it's better to have a conversation that sometimes gets drowned out by bigger news than have a super small conversation that drowns itself from inactivity.

This is specific for Arizona, and some of the logic will have to be reversed when legislative districts are bigger than counties, but it should provide a general guide for the roles:



Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
The above roles are what the board does.

The whole point is to support the PCs and ensure that they're being recruited and organized.

Edit:

To clarify, the roles listed are pretty much the minimum: Hold meetings, raise money to pay for the venue that the meetings are held at, record minutes for the meetings, account for the money, etc.

If a board gets all of that done, they're not necessarily doing a good job, but they're not doing a bad job.

Dr. Arbitrary fucked around with this message at 22:54 on Nov 26, 2018

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

Javid posted:

I went to such a meet and greet a while back posted by the county Dems. I was the only one to do so, even the person who created the event flaked. Maybe this is a sign that I would meet little opposition if I decided to take over and rule with an iron fist. It's tempting.

Probably. If you show up to meetings consistently for long enough, you'll have to work to avoid falling up the ladder.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
The Maricopa County Democratic party is having an actual election on Saturday for reorganization.

In previous years, it's mostly been one person being nominated and then selected by acclimation by the body.

This year, every single seat has at least two people running, and in cases where there's three we'll have to use Instant Runoff.

I've got to say, elections where you're choosing between multiple good candidates are way more challenging than ones where it's a shithead versus a decent human being.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
I'm willing to be flexible with politicians based on the industries in the area. Nobody is going to expect a representative from West Virginia to be an environmental champion.

But unless there are districts out there that are with no women, I don't think I'm comfortable with representatives throwing a huge chunk of their constituency under the bus to win.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
I'm currently a PC, and vice chair for my legislative district, as well as being on the State committee.

I'm not really sure what I want to be doing for 2019. The Senate race is starting to rev up so I might get in on that.

There's also some changes I'd like to see to the nomination petition system in my State and I want to figure out what can be done without legislation. I think the system is annoying to both parties, so it might not be a pipe-dream.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

Lightning Knight posted:

My involvement in Wisconsin has been spotty but I assume it’s like everywhere else, I.e. cliquey and stupid.

That's probably safe assumption. I can confirm that that's been a fairly universal constant in my experiences.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

Javid posted:

I went to a county dem meetup near me and literally nobody else showed up, whoever runs the facebook page just does not respond to messages, etc. I'm trying to decide between abandoning the idea, or seeking them out, taking over, and ruling with an iron fist.

Yeah, contact the State party in that case. The only thing in the way of you being in charge is finding someone to act as Treasurer.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

The Glumslinger posted:

Also, tacking center worked in Arizona

I don't know how true that is. Other candidates in Arizona won statewide offices without being the most conservative Democrat in the House. At least for 2018, running women seemed to be a very effective strategy.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
Anyone have the boyko SYN / ACK / RST gifs?

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
Local politics is loving nuts:

Quick background. In 1994, Phoenix wanted to build a stadium.
Unfortunately, in 1989, Phoenix voters had passed a referendum requiring public approval to build any sports facility costing more than 3 million. This was out of frustration at sales taxes being levied to pay for sports.
So, the State Legislature passed a law transferring the authority to build the stadium to the county instead of the city, and then the county board passed a sales tax.


Man who shot former Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox appears at City Council meeting

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
State Rep. David Stringer Charged With Child Porn in 1983, Court Records Show

This story is bad, but I've heard a rumor it is about to get much much worse.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
In Arizona, the parties had their state conventions to elect new leaders.

The AZ GOP picked Kelli "Chemtrail" Ward.

This'll be fun.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

Grape posted:

Ok so dunno if this is a one off, but that map has CT-23 with the right State Senator (Dennis Bradley) and..... uh gets his party wrong.

So I'm wondering how many mistakes we have on there.

Yeah, I'm looking at my state and there are quite a few errors.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

Blue Footed Booby posted:

Employees of federal contractors can absolutely donate. It's the company itself that can't.


Edit: This may not be correct, as "federal contractor" has more than one meaning, i.e., there's a difference between a person who works as a contractor for a company that is a federal contractor and a company that has a federal contract.

This is not correct, at least for federal campaigns.
https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/candidate-taking-receipts/who-can-and-cant-contribute/

Dr. Arbitrary fucked around with this message at 16:06 on May 20, 2019

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
I think I may be reading the law and applying a different definition of "government contractor" than what is stated.

I think a lot of the advice is in the "better safe than sorry" category. Nobody wants to get fined for taking an illegal donation.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
My experience with state parties is that the most important thing, above political ideology, above talent, above experience, is familiarity.
If you're a familiar face in the party, you can get elected to stuff internally.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
There was a thing a while back where some photos of a GOP rep participating in Vampire the Masquerade LARP, and for all the silliness, it's probably the best preparation you could have for local politics.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

Ego-bot posted:

So I guess Joe Arpaio is running next year to get his old sheriff's job back. Cool.

Honestly, it might just serve to redirect conservative donations to a scam campaign.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
Creating a list of recommendations and passing them out at the polls can be devastatingly effective for these kinds of races. Nobody knows anything, so if you hand out a card that has a list of recommendations, or like "scores" for each candidate, you could probably win a big chunk of votes that would otherwise be random.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
My state has the stupidest legislature.

30 districts of equal population, each elects two representatives and one senator to a 2 year term.

I don't understand the point.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
Ok, here's the plan:
House:
One representative for every 100,000 people. Geographically distributed into compact, contiguous (within reason, it's gonna get weird with islands) districts of approximately equal population across the US. Voting method: you have to get 100 signatures within your district to run, and each voter gets to cast one ballot that acts as a raffle ticket for the candidate of their choice, who is then chosen randomly.

Senate:

Every voter can join one "community" of their choice, with the consent of that community, or can be their own community of one. These communities represent micro-electoral coalitions.

Communities can set their own rules, although they can't keep people from leaving or joining other communities.

Each community can likewise join a community, and so on.
The top 100 top level communities (i.e., aren't members of another community) by membership get to pick a senator.

Suppose me and 8 other people in the country start talking and want to form a community called 'cool spot snes fan club', our electoral power is 9.

Over time, we join some larger coalition of SNES fan groups, and that group ends up joining others until eventually we end up with a senator.

One day, the 'cool spot genesis/megadrive' club contacts us and says, why don't you instead join the cool spot club, alongside 'cool spot game boy fan club' and others.

We agree, and our 9 votes move to the other tree, possibly shifting the totals at the very top.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
Man, I hope every state that's been under Republican control forever has a giant wishlist just in case.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
What's really interesting to me is that the balance is 21-19, which means there's a ton of bills that could have passed years ago if not for Hastert rule style policies in State legislatures.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
I swear, Arizona just needs to sink into hell or something. I don't even know anymore.



https://www.azleg.gov/legtext/55leg/1R/bills/SB1532H.htm

Basically, without defining "controversial," it's now forbidden to teach controversial subjects without providing both sides of an issue without deference to any side. Teachers face a $5000 fine.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
A family member of mine who's a teacher told me yesterday that she was asked to stop developing her curriculum for the civil rights movement until further notice.

It hasn't passed, but the possibility that it might pass is already affecting education.

Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin

NinjaPablo posted:

Someone was kind enough to condense the 6 hours of public comment from the Kent County Board of Commissioners yesterday into 25 minutes of crazy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi1i1Z_N8JA

I'd expect nothing less from the home of Devos.

Wait, I thought Kent State was the home of DEVOs.

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Dr. Arbitrary
Mar 15, 2006

Bleak Gremlin
I feel like there's got to be some mechanism to not endorse the primary winner, but it should be something difficult to overcome. Sometimes primaries go weird, someone dies, or they're involved in a scandal right before the election, and then you end up with a real weirdo.
Maybe something like a 75% threshold for the vote in the party committee or something, definitely not 51%.

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