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Taintrunner posted:the 2024 primaries began seven years ago
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Dec 3, 2018 20:57
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| # ¿ May 12, 2024 01:27 |
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dEspItE SoMe wArNiNg SiGnS
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Dec 4, 2018 07:30
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basic hitler posted:FDR was an elite from an elite family who rightly saw the mob coming for all his nice poo poo and rammed thru reforms to save him and his buddies against their wishes. He's a hero of rich ppl
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Dec 5, 2018 02:40
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zegermans posted:why the gently caress isn't Sherrod Brown running, isn't he mostly an 11 year younger bernie
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Dec 6, 2018 18:05
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The more I think about it, the more I think it'll be virtually impossible for an unknown/longshot to win the nomination. The reason for this is a combination of a large field at the start, and the changes to the primary schedule. Specifically, CA and TX are both on Super Tuesday now. These are physically large states with very large delegate counts. The winner(s) of those primaries will be very well positioned going forward. But campaigning in those states will be expensive, which will stand as a barrier to long-shot candidates and likely deplete the war-chests of anyone without a strong initial following. On top of that, CA has so many vote-by-mail voters that you can't just start campaigning there after IA/NH/NV/SC. The conventional path for a relative unknown or longshot candidate to win, by winning early in IA/NH and building momentum after that, is derailed by the expensive necessity to win in CA and TX early. Maybe someone could do it if they sweep or win at least three of those first four contests, but in a crowded field that is extremely unlikely. For these reasons, I don't see how anyone aside from Bernie/Biden/Beto/Harris wins. Bernie and Biden have the anti-establishment/establishment frontrunner status, Beto and Harris have home field advantage for TX/CA.
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Dec 6, 2018 23:17
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MysteriousStranger posted:He's not a known grifter, Bernie is.
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Dec 6, 2018 23:30
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| # ¿ May 12, 2024 01:27 |
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Right, but it is incredibly difficult to build a significant ground game in places like CA and TX if you're starting from minimal name recognition in a crowded field. I had forgotten about the proportional delegate rules on the Dem side, that does change the calculus somewhat.
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Dec 7, 2018 00:53
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