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cargo cult posted:how is bernie going to win southern primaries probably by getting more votes than the other candidates if i had to guess
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Nov 26, 2018 20:25
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Gringostar posted:iirc this is happening for 2020 Correct! quote:Mon, Feb 3 Iowa Caucuses Closed
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Nov 26, 2018 20:31
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Lightning Knight posted:does he have to? this is not sarcasm I genuinely don’t know. The primary will be proportionally allocated among candidates that get at least 15% of the vote. So there are lots of ways to make the math work where any candidate doesn't need to come first in any of the races in the South to win the nomination.
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Nov 26, 2018 20:53
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So looking at the early races and cleaning up the formatting from my earlier post....quote:[Pledged Delegate Count] (Primary Status) The 15% rule combined with the fact that ~65% of the delegates are pledged by CD not statewide vote leads to some fascinating combinations in a wide election. It is completely possible for the candidate with 30% of the vote to get 60% of the delegates and a candidate with 20% of the vote to get the remaining 40% of the delegates while a whole host of other candidates do better than 10% and get nothing. Also the California delegate count is massive, since delegate counts are weighted by how Democratic each state is in addition to population.
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Nov 26, 2018 22:12
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COMRADES posted:I think it'll be easier than that. Shortly before the voting happens they'll announce a new rule that anyone on there has to have been a registered Democrat for at least a year. nah they already added the rule for that quote:https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/25/politics/democrats-superdelegates-voting-changes/index.html
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Nov 26, 2018 22:55
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THS posted:im dreading these primaries more than anything in the world more than ever the psalm of our era rings true: dehumanize yourself and face to bloodshed
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Nov 26, 2018 23:19
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comedyblissoption posted:the dnc can unilaterally decide that a candidate is sufficiently not democratic enough and not allow candidates like sanders to run in the presidential primaries. i doubt they would press that nuclear button for bernie but would do so for future bernie-like candidates Either Bernie wins or someone more leftist wins (lol) or else it doesn’t really matter what the dnc does in 2022+ it owns (us)
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Nov 27, 2018 06:19
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bawfuls posted:The more I think about it, the more I think it'll be virtually impossible for an unknown/longshot to win the nomination. The reason for this is a combination of a large field at the start, and the changes to the primary schedule. An important rule to consider is a large chunk of delegates are allocated by congressional district not at the state level. I think there is only one way for an outsider candidate to overcome the media cost disadvantage you outline, the ground game. Volunteers that are enthusiastic and dedicated combined with a campaign aggressively seeking “earned media” can more than overcome the money advantage of more establishment candidates.
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Dec 7, 2018 00:33
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bawfuls posted:Right, but it is incredibly difficult to build a significant ground game in places like CA and TX if you're starting from minimal name recognition in a crowded field. Sure but candidates can get name recognition without money if the campaign is focused around “earning media” through aggressive local campaigning and bold & impactful campaign planks. Another thing to consider is California gets almost 2x what Texas gets due to allocation based on democratic voters. It’s possible to run a campaign in only SF, LA, DFW, and Houston and come away with half the delegates from the two states even if you don’t win them both outright. I agree the campaigns are hella weighted towards the establishment but I also think this whole politicial system is so loving fragile anyone with actual politics could crash through any barriers like a goon through cake.
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Dec 7, 2018 04:25
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signing the petition to rename this thread: 2020 Democratic Primary Succ Succ Succ Gray Succ
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Dec 7, 2018 18:23
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| # ¿ May 10, 2024 15:59 |
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yeah it was easier to make fun of weaver as "lol comic books guy" before the utter embarrassment of the Hillary generation election campaign at the hands of the most insider political operatives possible
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Dec 11, 2018 21:10
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