forkboy84 posted:

So Thai police operates exactly like an organised crime family, that's dope.

Dreddout posted:

Lol this is juche poo poo

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

the main competing mafias in thailand are the police, the military, thaksin shinawatra, the yakuza, and the royal family

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

the main competing mafias in thailand are the police, the military, thaksin shinawatra, the yakuza, and the royal family

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

the main competing mafias in thailand are the police, the military, thaksin shinawatra, the yakuza, and the royal family

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

the main competing mafias in thailand are the police, the military, thaksin shinawatra, the yakuza, and the royal family

mila kunis posted:

are Thais generally that mentally cucked about monarchy or would smashing lese majeste and the power of the royalists bring out a lot of 'always hated those guys' sentiment

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

the main competing mafias in thailand are the police, the military, thaksin shinawatra, the yakuza, and the royal family

BrutalistMcDonalds posted:

what is this a deus ex game

okay rhetorical question

the real question is which mafia do i pick

quote:

With five weeks to a general election, Thailand’s political climate is bad and likely to get worse.

Below the surface of the shocking prime ministerial bid earlier this month by the Thai king’s sister is a swirl of political groupings jostling ahead of March’s crucial poll. Its outcome will either see military rule continue via the country’s parliament, or democracy reassert itself with victory by anti-junta parties.

Investors in Thai assets have long been attuned to political turmoil — share prices took less than a month to recover after protesters lit the stock exchange on fire amid 2010 riots — and this is fortunate because, far from resolving political uncertainty, the March 24 election may trigger fresh upheaval.

The king blocked the brash nomination of Ubolratana Rajakanya Sirivadhana Barnavadi by the anti-junta Thai Raksa Chart party, which now faces a dissolution that would derail the election strategy of Pheu Thai, the leading party in the main opposition alliance.

But it is the pro-military parties that face likely defeat in the poll. FT Confidential Research’s latest survey of 1,000 urban Thai consumers found just 9 per cent of respondents saying they intend to vote for Phalang Pracharat, which has chosen coup leader and current prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha as its sole premiership candidate, or one of its allied parties. Among respondents 35 or younger, support for the military candidate falls to just 5.2 per cent.



If the pro-junta faction cannot take the lower house, only two fraught paths are likely to remain to keep control of the government. One would be an unstable alliance with the Democrat party, which opposes the junta but also Pheu Thai, the party backed by exiled former prime minister and businessman Thaksin Shinawatra. Pheu Thai won the 2011 election and governed until the May 2014 coup.

Far more controversially, it could use the junta-appointed senate to block the prime minister chosen by the lower house, risking igniting major protest.

Pheu Thai, and affiliates including Thai Raksa Chart, remained the preferred party for 24 per cent of our respondents, slipping only 4 percentage points versus 2011.

Historically the main rival to Thaksin-backed parties, the Democrat party officially opposes the military government but its leadership appears to be split over whether to support Mr Prayuth’s candidacy.

Importantly, the upstart Future Forward Party came out ahead of Phalang Pracharat with 11 per cent of responses, and could tip the scales. The party, whose support is overwhelmingly among younger voters, vociferously opposes the junta and is expected to form a loose alliance with Pheu Thai if this helps block Phalang Pracharat.

Collapse in political sentiment

Our survey also showed a collapse in political sentiment among Thai consumers. A full 60 per cent of respondents rated the political situation negatively, versus just 11 per cent who viewed it positively. The gap is by far the biggest since the inception of this question in 2015.



The forward-looking FTCR Political Sentiment Index slipped back into pessimistic territory at 47.9, meaning that slightly more respondents expect this already negative political climate to worsen in the next six months — when the election will be held — than believe it will improve.

The weak economy is also no help, with many Thais quick to blame the government for the underperformance. Thailand’s political sentiment reading strongly correlates with our economic sentiment gauge, which also fell this quarter.
Thaksin’s royal flush turns royal farce

On February 13, the Election Commission recommended that Thai Raksa Chart be banned for its royal blunder, with a final decision by the Constitutional Court expected soon.

Thai Raksa Chart fielded candidates to get around the military junta’s electoral rules, which are widely seen as damaging to Pheu Thai. The loss of Thai Raksa Chart would narrow Pheu Thai’s path to take the lower house, but it is still running in plenty of races nationwide.

A strong performance by Future Forward at the polls could present another path to an anti-junta coalition government. This looks increasingly possible as the upstart party gains popularity.

A high-level Democrat party source told FTCR that an alliance of convenience between the Democrats and Pheu Thai could also be on the cards.

The 2014 military coup was welcomed inasmuch as it brought a semblance of calm to Thailand after months of anti-government protest. But the junta has overstayed that welcome, and next month’s election risks a return to chaos
.
To many in the anti-junta camp, the ban of a pro-Thaksin party would appear politically motivated and could ignite an already flammable post-election scenario — especially when the questionable legality of Mr Prayuth’s own candidacy has been swept under the rug.

Pheu Thai supporters already have grounds to cry foul over a rigged election process. The 2017 constitution, approved by the junta’s rubber-stamp parliament, changed voting rules and constituency boundaries in ways that disadvantage Pheu Thai. More importantly, the junta will appoint the entire 250-member senate, which will now vote alongside the lower house to appoint a prime minister.

Amid the political chaos in the wake of the king’s interdiction, rumours began to fly of another coup, or would it be a counter-coup? These have so far been unsubstantiated, but Thai politics has rarely if ever been more uncertain.

quote:

Police said on Wednesday said they were seeking the prosecution of the leader of the new political party Future Forward over a speech he made that was posted on Facebook last June criticising the ruling junta, the National Council for Peace and Order.

The legal action against Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, 40, and two senior colleagues in the Future Forward Party, which has attracted the support of young voters, adds to concern that the military is determined to retain its hold on power after the March 24 election.

"We will send both the case for prosecution and the suspects to the attorney-general," said Pol Lt Col Krit Seneewong Na Ayutthaya, an investigator on the case from the Technology Crime Suppression Division.


Mr Thanathorn and two Anakhot Mai Party executive members face five years in prison under the Computer Crime Act for "uploading false information" in a speech posted on Facebook in June last year.

A conviction would automatically disqualify all three from the political scene.

Pol Lt Col Krit said the case would be referred next week to state prosecutors, who will decide whether to take it to court.

The party denied the charge, saying the points made in the speech were public information.

"It's obvious that as the election approaches, the case is being rushed ahead ... We're ready to face whatever challenge comes our way," Mr Thanathorn told reporters at a rally in Bangkok on Wednesday.

Mr Thanathorn launched his party last year, promoting it as an alternative to Thailand's polarised politics, which has for years pitted loyalists of ousted ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra against establishment parties supporting the military-royalist elite.

Mr Thanathorn has been critical of military rule, recently pledging to prosecute coup-makers and amend the new constitution.

Helen Highwater posted:

The leader of Future Forward is almost certainly going to get bodied by the government in the next few days. The police have recommended that he be charged with cyber crimes for uplaoding a video to Facebook where he gives a speech that's critical of the military junta.

Really.

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

idk why they even bothered doing elections. all theyre doing is making the inevitable protests worse, especially if they piss off the young which have rallied around thanathorn. should have just kept on delaying them.

GreyjoyBastard posted:

maybe they thought they'd win handily and are now getting nervous

Helen Highwater posted:

https://twitter.com/zenjournalist/status/1104360110057549825

Norton the First posted:

So the Democrats all ended up voting for the junta?

Agean90 posted:

From what I can tell most of the junta's gains came from future forwards, who collapsed by like 12 points.

this does of course assume everything with the election is on the level

Helen Highwater posted:

All that is pretty irrelevant though, as there is no parliament building for the new government to meet in and make those votes. The old parliament building was reabsorbed in the royal household after the last coup, and the replacement building isn't ready for another year.

i say swears online posted:

lmfao