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abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


you want:

luke voit
adalberto mondesi
conforto
merrill kelly
heaney
mazara

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abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


out, thanks

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


league settings:

$225
6×6: r, hr, rbi, sb, obp, slg | w, qs, sv, k, era, whip
espn
faab that settles on monday, thursday, and saturday

and with those settings, keep up to 6:

acuna 10
betts 50
bregman 24
bryant 50
buxton 5
cabrera 5
cain 13
heaney 5
hicks 5
iglesias 11
jansen 17
leclerc 5
mazara 5
mondesi 5
nimmo 5
pivetta 5
tucker 5
villar 5
voit 5
yates 5

acuna is a no-brainer, so 5 left.

mondesi’s upside is tremendous, so i feel this is close to a no-brainer as well, so 4 left.

now it gets interesting. betts is obviously the big name here. we all know the skillset is top 2 or 3. if he gives 650pa, he’ll be worth it. but that’s a tough ask from him. he’s always a little banged up, it seems. and even in the best case where he gives 650pa, does he really offer a profit when his cost is $50? then again, the talent is just so immense.

and that’s not even mentioning the team-building aspect. i’m already keeping acuna and mondesi. acuna strikes me as something of a mini-betts. possibly too flush with speed in these three? might be better to spend some of the $50 on two elite, non-speedy hitters?

i’m pretty torn.

and then there’s bregman at $24. i have to say, that’s an attractive price. i’m inclined to throw him back to the pool, even though he’ll go for more. reason being–bryant will be available (no way am i keeping him). and i think bryant is the better hitter and can be had for less. bryant will also certainly be cheaper to keep next season. maybe i’m being too speculative here and i should go with bregman?

the rest are, for the most part, just high-upside players. cain, i really don’t see keeping at $13. seems more like a great trade chip that i should employ before the draft. jansen at $17 is tempting, and he’s one of the bonafides at a position that is rapidly disappearing. i could certainly see keeping him. then again, yates at $5 is obviously more attractive from an expenses standpoint, but does he last past the trade deadline? i lean so, as i do think the padres will contend this season.

in any case, i’ve come to three possible groups in my head:

a: betts, acuna, mondesi, voit, cabrera, buxton – $80
b: acuna, mondesi, voit, cabrera, buxton, yates – $35
c: betts, bregman, acuna, mondesi, jansen, pivetta – $111

these are just the ones i’ve thought through. group a seems solid with decent upside. group b seems lacking with foundation, but loaded with upside. group c completely disregards cash.

but yea, those are the three i’ve come to. curious if you all can make a case for another group, or eliminate the groups i’ve come to.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


thoughts? $225 budget, 13-team, roto keeper 6x6, with obp instead of avg, slg and qs added:

c- castillo ($1)
1b- goldschmidt ($30)
2b- hampson ($5)
3b- bregman (keeper - $24)
ss- mondesi (keeper - $5)
of- acuna (keeper - $10)
of- mccutchen ($16)
of- nimmo ($15)
of- buxton (keeper - $5)
ut- miguel cabrera (keeper - $5)
ut- voit (keeper - $5)

bn- bichette ($1)
bn- mcneil ($1)
bn- tucker ($1)
bn- williamson ($1)

sp- scherzer ($45)
sp- taillon ($25)
sp- darvish ($9)
rp- doolittle ($8)
rp- strop ($6)
rp- morrow ($1)
sp- nelson ($1)
sp- sheffield ($1)
sp- wacha ($1)

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 12:49 on Mar 20, 2019

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


lol someone just offered me corbin for mondesi in my obp and qs league

not a loving chance, jackass

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Bregor posted:

That’s not a terrible offer? Reliable SPs are pretty hard to trade for in my experience.

it is a bad offer.

corbin succeeded last year because, yes, he retooled his repertoire and went extreme on his slider--that's great. but that wasn't everything. i believe the real reason he went insane is that drat humidor in arizona. him moving to a not so friendly park, and the revamped nl east (there are some serious offenses there now), and just regression in general, means some significant walk back in those numbers.

on the other side, you have mondesi, who has first round upside. he does look improved at the plate, and obviously the power and speed are real and he has carte blanche on the basepaths.

so i'd be trading a potential first rounder for a guy you could probably get in the 10th-12th. it's a no-brainer to take a chance on the guy with the immense upside.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


on another note, espn's new site is beyond trash. they gotta get this nonsense fixed soon. boyd's performance isn't even showing up for me, no active stats pages, the fantasycast doesn't work after 5min, and even when it does the layout makes zero sense

just atrocious

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


The Pussy Boss posted:

Is Vogelbach legit? Not asking if I should grab him in a deep league, because duh, but is he actually for real?

yes. all he ever needed was playing time.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


folks, you're going to want to stash yordan alvarez

thank me in august

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Fast Luck posted:

Flaherty's last start he carried a no hitter into like the 5th and struck out 10, EdRod has been pitching very well ever since his first two starts. Weird timing to drop either!

He's crushing it but August is a long time to wait

I almost added him a few days ago but looked at the Astros OF and Brantley/Springer/Redick is gonna be a tough outfield to crack. Maybe someone could take some ABs from Tyler White at DH but Kyle Tucker is on the 40-man roster and Alvarez isn't so he still might not get the next shot.

the path i see is he'll take over for white by june. reddick has also been kind of bad too, and they still have kemp for some reason, whom tucker could replace

that bat is going to play

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Gobias Ind. posted:

Reddick is slashing 375/423/528

drat, looks like he got hot recently. he was flailing earlier. that .393 babip and depressed walk rate, though. seems like he's just making way better contact so far.

well, anyways, like i said, white is the one i question most.

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 18:30 on Apr 26, 2019

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


the nats do not know how the il works and they never have. they've done this multiple times in the past. it's baffling

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


just tried moving goldschmidt and vogelbach for gallo and degrom in my obp/qs league. no dice :smith:

i love/hate playing in leagues with smart managers. i need to get in on some of these yahoo ones. almost all of those ones in that yahoo image are complete jokes.

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 12:51 on Apr 30, 2019

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


the_american_dream posted:

A summary for those not in that league? Sounds hilarious

scroll up to ice phoenix's post with the screenshot

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Bregor posted:

So is Scherzer just bad now or what

he's actually pitching better this season than any other. he's been insanely unlucky with babip, his bullpen has given up like every runner he's left on base, his own lob% is crazy, and his defense has been atrocious. none of the runs tonight were his fault, at all. robles completely botched a routine fly and ozuna interfered with kieboom in the first.

it's unreal the bad luck he's suffered so far. everyone should be going after him hard if you can get him at like 80 to 90c on the dollar

e:

https://twitter.com/DevanFink/status/1123785657938264064

this is like the most obvious buy low situation imaginable. dude is killing it and everyone around him is letting him down

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 04:46 on May 2, 2019

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


also

Abel Wingnut posted:

folks, you're going to want to stash yordan alvarez

thank me in august

baseball america posted:

Yordan Alvarez, OF/1B, Astros. It’s hard to have a better day than Alvarez had on Wednesday. In the first game of a doubleheader, Alvarez went 4-for-5 with three RBIs. The Astros’ No. 3 prospect had two singles and two doubles from the cleanup spot. In the second game, Alvarez hit his 12th home run of the season (one off the minor league lead) while going 2-for-3. So for the day, he was 6-for-8 with 11 total bases.

i really do not believe tyler white is long for the astros' starting lineup

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


i don't think that's a concern? yes, both alvarez and tucker are nominally outfield prospects, and the astros' fo keeps at that line for valuation reasons, but yordan patently isn't good in the outfield--at all. he's destined for 1b or dh, and the astros have a black hole there now. meanwhile, tucker is a great hitter and a great defender in the outfield. he is exactly what they look for in an outfielder.

their proclivities sort the situation out rather seamlessly. so no, i don think they impede one another's advancement.

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 15:36 on May 2, 2019

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


the problem with flaherty is he has one excellent pitch and nothing else

do not draft starters with one above average pitch

e: also i would be looking to move kershaw immediately. his velocity is in freefall and his slider is a husk of what it was. gave up a lot of loud outs tonight. babip still way too low. now combine all that with the weather about to heat up, his back, and decent offenses in the west.

i’m afraid this is the beginning of the end :/

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 06:23 on May 9, 2019

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


fawning deference posted:

Kershaw may be just undergoing a period of velocity trouble but he still got an 0.98 whip and a k/bb rate over 5. I would give him some time.

i mean, if you want to bet on that, be my guest. but i'll bet on the dude who's thrown more than 2100 innings and suffered several back issues that could easily recur ultimately succumbing to age and not being an sp1 or high sp2 henceforth. regardless of what you think of his velocity, there's still no doubt he's outperforming his peripherals and the weather and baseball environment will do him no favors in the coming months.

he'll still get you a decent era and whip because of his control, like high 3 and high1.1, but he's like bottom tier sp2 at best now. if you can get a nola or top 35 bat, which i think is doable, and it makes sense for your team, do so immediately. the cliff's a-comin'.

oh, and go check those velo graphs for his fb and his slider.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


SouthShoreSamurai posted:

Literally since the day I posted this (Apr 25), he's gone on a tear with 6 HR in 12 games and an OPS over 1.2.

So uh, thank you to whoever reminded him.

descalso told him to try one of those new grip bats and voila

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


you want to pick up loaisiga. dude's real good

don't think of him as a savior or anything. he'll probably be hurt at some point. but the innings he will give you are going to be efficient and awesome

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 01:06 on May 13, 2019

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


Fast Luck posted:

Read an article about Alex Reyes that he’s basically on a rehab assignment and will just start on milb homestands, two at A+, then one at AA and AAA and if it goes well he could find his way into the MLB rotation. He had control issues earlier this year but was coming back from injury. Hit 99mph and went 70 pitches yesterday in a nice low level start.

folks, the upside here is immense. you have to get him on your team if he's still a free agent. and if he's owned by someone else, try to trade for him. dude could be an instant ace

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


he lost his command + gabe kepler is a moron + any and all sequencing ability he had has completely and inexplicably gone out the window

like he wasn't going to repeat last season, but this is just weird. i'm starting to think kepler and whoever the pitching coach is is ruining all their arms. none of their pitchers have good command, and most don't even have control. there's talent there, and it's just not being used like it should.

some people think he's hurt, too. i don't really buy that given the velocity is up from last season, but...maybe? something is definitely up with him, though.

abelwingnut fucked around with this message at 05:48 on Jun 4, 2019

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


fawning deference posted:

On another note, Brian Reynolds is awesome?

EDIT: Just looked at his fancies, haha 50% of his contact is grounders and his BABIP is .427. I'll just ride this hot streak...

he may not be overperforming as much as most think. his babip was always high, and his absurd hard hit rate suggests something is good. he'll die down a bit, but i'm not sure how much.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


it's also very possible this is like spring training where he's working on very select things with a very peculiar repertoire. who knows.

the point is it seems the velocity and physical health are there. give him a few more starts, and see where it goes.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


the worst part about this season isn't the ball that allows hitters to hit dingers at will, it's the loving front offices and the use of the opener and the general chaos of how teams are run and managed now. fantasy baseball needs to change to reflect these things.

like in 10yr, is there going to be a single pitcher who pitcher more than 6ip per start? i...kind of doubt it. eventually the win and the save and the dumber stats will go away. teams already don't care about them.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


the_american_dream posted:

Bo Bichette up. No idea if I want to grab him or no

you absolutely want bichette.

abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


the_american_dream posted:

Have Tatis, Escobar, and Bregman and steals aren’t that valuable. I absolutely may not

...so? there's absolutely no reason to avoid someone because you have a glut of good guys at that position. in fact, it's all the more reason to pick him up. now you have multiple trade chips you can use to fill out your team.

you are trying to accumulate value and good players, position be damned. you can sell, and hopefully exploit, that value to fill your needs.

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abelwingnut
Dec 23, 2002


saves, wins, and even quality starts are pretty much entirely random. they are dependent on soooooooo many other things beyond a pitcher's control. i wish they were loving abolished from fantasy.

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