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Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
Hijacking a two year old effort post lmbo.

Yahoo! opened up today yesterday so fantasy baseball is officially back.


Dingers, baby!

Put your keeper questions, sleeper questions, jeepers and creepers questions. They all go here. If you ask a question, you better put your league settings or else it'll probably get ignored.



News/Advice Stolen word for word from Last Year's OP was, "Draft Mookie" genius
Razzball - I typically draft using Grey's rankings, and I actually pay money for access to their Stream-O-Nator and HitterTron tools. Grey's daily summary posts are the first thing I read each morning during the season. In my opinion, this is the best fantasy baseball site out there.
FantasyAlarm - Ray Flowers gives very good advice and his rankings are typically solid. Can also follow him on Twitter @BaseballGuys, where he is very active during the season.
FanGraphs - The site you should all be using for your baseball stats. Lots of good articles as well, and the host of Ottoneu (see below.)
Rotoworld - General injury/transaction news geared towards fantasy players.
FantasyPros - Fantasy rankings aggregator (Spoeank Note: They are branching out into writing too, some good stuff there).
Ottoneu - I started playing Ottoneu last year and I love it. It's 12 team, 40 player MLB/MiLB dynasty with a $400 salary cap. If you are interested in doing a $50 FanGraphs Points startup league, let me know and I might start a goon league with enough interested parties.
Pitcher List - Amazing pitcher info, amazing pitcher .gifs.



Good Podcasts That Will Make You Smarter
CBS Fantasy Baseball Today
ESPN Fantasy Focus (not that dumbfuck Matt Berry anymore)
Flags Fly Forever (Baseball Prospectus)
Sleeper and the Bust (Fangraphs)
MLB.com Fantasy 411 is technically good but I boycott it because they're no Cory Schwartz or Mike Schiano



GOOD AND COOL AND FUN STATISTICS YOU SHOULD USE
BABIP - Measures good or bad luck. League average is somewhere near .300, but different batting profiles can sustain higher or lower BABIP. Look to a player's career average. Look for high pitcher BABIP and low batter BABIP for sleepers, basically.
K-BB% (pitchers)- combines K% and BB%, which are better than K/9 and BB/9 for various reasons, and makes them into one number.
LOB% (pitchers) - A high LOB% with a low K% probably means the pitcher got really lucky and may be due for ERA regression.
Hard% in conjunction with ISO (hitters) - they have a strong enough correlation, and if someone has a good Hard% but a bad ISO, that could be bad luck (WELINGTON CASTILLO I'M LOOKIN AT YOU)
WRC+ (hitters) - easy to sort by to start from to figure out who is really good. It's a decent enough short hand.


I the guy I stole this from writes an article every year about pitchers looking at BABIP, K-BB% and unusually high ERAs. Last year I he predicted Rick Porcello, American Fuckin' League Cy Fuckin' Young Winner, would have a good year.
...
But then again I he said the same thing about Ian Kennedy so what the gently caress do I he know.

Here's the article for this year: http://theinscribermag.com/fantasy-...ced-statistics/

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Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.

Spoeank posted:

Very happy to have my stolen and updated effort post stolen and updated.

It's in the best shape of its life


Am I the only one here not drafting Mondesi? (where he's ranked at least) Not that I don't believe he will perform, but he has a Jonathan Villar 2017 vibe to me. I'm sure the underlying stats aren't as bad, but I guess I'm letting someone else gamble.

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
I'm all about balance this year. I still only play roto and there are only so many hitter starts and IP you can use up. No sense in overdoing it in one category or another.
First team:

12 team standard

C: Yadier Molina
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Robinson Cano
3B: Josh Donaldson
SS: Jose Peraza
OF: Whit Merrifield, Eddie Rosario, Tommy Pham
UT: Nick Markakis, Jesse Winker
BN: Willy Adames

SP: Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Blake Snell, Rich Hill, Dereck Rodriguez, Trevor Williams
RP: Sean Doolittle, David Robertson, Corey Knebel, Alex Colome, Will Smith, Chad Green

A little light on the hitting, but should carry the pitching categories at least

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
He casts a long shadow

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
Team 2 of the year, in a *shudder* H2H league

C: Yadier Molina
1B: Justin Smoak
2B: Robinson Cano
3B: Mike Moustakas
SS: Jean Segura
OF: Mike Trout, Tommy Pham, David Dahl
UT: Jesse Winker, Nick Markakis
BN: Yuli Gurriel, Didi Gregorius

SP: Corey Kluber, Justin Verlander, Carlos Carrasco, Jameson Tailon, Kyle Hendricks, Andrew Heaney, Trevor Williams
RP: Jose Leclerc, David Robertson, Will Smith, Ryan Brasier

Some real discount options as far as offense goes. I was hoping someone would get scared off by Francisco Lindor's injury so I could get him at pick 24, but he went at #23

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
Bad trade season is already underway.

Kluber, Heaney, Gregorius for Lindor, Gausman, Adames? Seems fair to me.

What's the counter offer? Felipe Vazquez, Lowrie, Adames for Kluber, Gregorius, and Brasier

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
Depends who you might be able to get and how late the pick would be. Altuve slipped to late first early second

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
BSOHL alert

quote:

It has picked up again this offseason and carried into the spring, but this time it’s for all the right reasons as a noticeably slimmed-down Sano arrived at Twins camp Sunday.

The “new Miguel Sano,” as he referred to himself, might have to wait a bit longer to join his teammates in all spring activities after suffering a cut on his right heel while in the Dominican Republic, but he drew rave reviews for his conditioning.

“We’re going to basically get it looked at first, then make a determination as far as timetable and see where he’s at,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “Otherwise, besides that, he looks great. He looks as good or better as we ever could have hoped coming into camp.”

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
The same guy in one of my leagues auto drafted both Sano and Buxton. It's going to either go really well or really badly.

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
Redraft? Definitely

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.

ROCK THE HOUSE M.D. posted:

I may have a buddy who would like to join, he's not a goon though.

Let's be honest, anyone who plays fantasy baseball could be described as a goon

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
What are the chances Brasier ends up closing?

I have a need for speed in one of my leagues and someone dropped Mallex Smith. It's down to Brasier, Trevor Williams, Colome, or Gregorius, and I think Brasier may be the one to cut

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.

resident posted:

I'm planning on keeping Brasier on my 35 man roster in a 30 team league if that helps you out.

This helps, thank you.



Hope none of y'all drafted Sal Perez

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
Redraft: Garret Hampson and Nick Senzel- should they be owned over Brad Peacock or Seth Lugo?

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

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12 team standard roto. I invested in speed. Turner, Merrifield, Pham, Segura. But then some slowpokes later on.

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
I know people like to poo poo on all the sites when they change, but ESPN is just oogly this year

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

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This is the year to own Buxton, if ever. His price has absolutely bottomed out. He was being drafted around Justin Upton last year IIRC. That was just a disaster waiting to happen.

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

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Bregor posted:

catcher run

I don't know when it started, but I imagine it took a while

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

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Not good

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

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Add Michael Wacha?

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

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In just about every real or mock draft I do, someone has reached for Realmuto. Anything inside the top 50 for me is too early. I'd start thinking about him in the 60s.

I like where Yadi/Ramos go. And Wellington Castillo if I miss out on them.

The guy who took Realmuto passed on players like Eugenio Suarez and Corey Seager in the end of the 4th, and took Jonathan Schoop in the 13th.

I took Joey Votto in the 4th and Wilson Ramos in the 13th. I think I'd still rather have those two.

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

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Devers

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

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ChiTownEddie posted:

12 team 4x4 roto (R, RBI, SB, OPS | IP, ERA, WHIP, K)
Would you rather have Corey Seager at $12 or German Marquez at $9?

I'd rather have Seager.



What are we doing with Andrew Heaney? Hold or pick up someone like Wacha or Stroman?

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.

the_american_dream posted:

How are we feeling about Trevor Bauer this year?

Not a big fan from a fantasy perspective at least. Although if I drafted him last year where he went, I would have been

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
For those of you looking for a little pop at third base, Jung Ho Kang is going to be the starter going in to the season. He hasn't made a lot of contact this spring, but when he does, the ball is getting hammered. 5 for 20 with 5 home runs.

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
I will regret not drafting Luke "Mike Trout" Voit

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
You ever see a trade go down where you can't really veto it, while at the same time respecting the confidence in the owner getting a sweet deal and can't fathom what the other owner was thinking?

I saw a Ronald Acuna for Stephen Strasburg swap, and part of me wanted to hit that button out of spite, but it's not collusion, just idiocy.

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
Oh motherfucker. Second year in a row someone has caused me to miss the draft

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

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:argh:

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

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IcePhoenix posted:

I even changed the day for you!

Appreciated but some people's moods cannot be controlled

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.

Inspector_666 posted:

I figured since I missed out on Voit I needed to up my Beefy Boy/Husky Lad count somewhere else.

Wellington Castillo?

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
Beef Willians?

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
Who to drop for Rasiel Iglesias in a H2H standard league?

Justin Smoak, Garret Hampson, or Jordan Hicks?

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
In that league, I have Whit, Trout, Segura, Pham, and Pollock to go along with Hampson, so I'm probably good as far as speed goes. I have Winker and Gurriel to fill either Hampson or Smoak's spot. No big loss either way.

ROCK THE HOUSE M.D. posted:

Someone rank these prospects for me... Having trouble deciding if I should drop someone for Senzel.


Senzel, Hampson, McMahon (I have a feeling this is the correct ranking, or maybe Hampson first.)


2019, I would probably rank them the exact opposite, but long term I think you have it right

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
In mock drafts, I kept getting Knebel and Hill because they offered sneaky value at their ADP, but when it came to drafts, people actually paid attention and I missed out on them.

I'm okay with that now

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

It's a problem you think we need to explain ourselves.
I don't like Mondesi enough to draft him but if someone offered me Carlos Santana for him, I'd take it without hesitation.

If someone's salty about you offering that deal, don't worry, they're being dumb.

Keep Mondesi. Santana puts up some alright numbers, but he's hardly replacabe.

If it's Domingo Santana, that applies except I have less faith in him.

Anyone with Domingo should be selling

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

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Fair as it gets IMO. I'd rather have Cole and I'm an offense-first drafter

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

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H2H redraft: Fernando Tatis or Ryan McMahon? And why is McMahon a FA in the Fire & Forget league? He was raking by the 18th, wasn't he?

Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

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I have Ohtani the pitcher on my roster lol

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Moneyball
Jul 11, 2005

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As someone with zero shares of Voit I was dreading visiting this thread you smug jerks

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