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IcePhoenix posted:I hope the players this season surprise me because the gimmick has me extremely unhyped for tomorrow Hard same. That plus I wish they'd do either just returnees or just new players, instead of an awkward mix. Having said that I'll probably still watch every episode.
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Feb 19, 2019 20:24
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ApplesandOranges posted:Jumble of thoughts from the premiere: Yeah, really hard to get a read on most people at this point. Rick seems like he might be cool, and Ron seems like he might be really annoying, but we'll see. I came in judging the twist pretty hard, but at least the way they shot that final scene was actually cool. I'm still skeptical, though. Maybe they can get some novelty mileage out of not telling the castaways about the gimmick until somebody comes back into the game. The main problem with the RI shtick is that its too tempting to coalesce around voting out the players who come back into the game. I don't know how you protect against that. Maybe let more than one person back in at the same time? Or bring somebody back during one of the pre-merge tribeswaps when alliances aren't as clear?
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Feb 21, 2019 20:04
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Victoria definitely seems like somebody to watch going forward. The David/News Anchor tandem will probably be an ongoing thing as well. Don’t think it’s a popular opinion around here but I have never really been a big Wentworth fan. Still, she'll make for better TV than Keith, who was kind of a nothing. I am caught between my usual distaste for mixed returnee/newbie seasons and some slight optimism that maybe having 2 returnees per tribe could lead to some new results. Like the David/Wentworth dynamic is actually somewhat interesting. Vernacular fucked around with this message at 07:21 on Feb 28, 2019 |
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Feb 28, 2019 07:15
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Finally caught the most recent episode. Chris was really dumb and deserved to go home. I suspect he's going to get back in and make life difficult for the people who blindsided him. David has been doing decently well playing both sides, but he's going to out himself (if he hasn't already) with more cryptic comments at tribal. Aside from TC, the edit has been making it kind of hard to gauge how much suspicion he's been arousing amongst Wentworth/Lauren/Wardog. I'm a little torn about his decision to not vote out Wentworth. I guess his thought is to stay on good terms with as many Manus as possible before the impending tribeswap, which is somewhat defensible, but there also would have been logic behind banking on the Manus being forced to stick together after the tribeswap regardless of who got voted out. Rick/Devin (what's the deal with that name confusion anyway?) looks like a really savvy player, and I think he'll benefit strongly from being paired with David, who is going to catch most of the heat between the two of them.
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Mar 11, 2019 22:11
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Rick is funny and cool and seems like a genuinely classy guy so it sucks to see him get the short end of the stick there. Hopefully he gets back in, I think he could go far under the right circumstances. I am not sure what y'all see in Wendy. I can appreciate her compassion and elements of her zaniness, but her acts of sabotage are just such a bad look on so many levels. I get that there was probably some vicious cycle at work with the ways Wardog and Wentworth were treating her. However, she is actively loving with peoples' basic needs on a whim (including 4 new people who have done nothing to her), and that poo poo sucks. xbilkis posted:And, I cannot believe I'm saying this, but Wardog kind of owns? I am increasingly won over by his combination of "much more thoughtful than you would expect from a man who calls himself Wardog" and "still fundamentally as ridiculous as you'd expect of a man who calls himself Wardog." His thoughtful face as he was hearing everyone's pitches was really doing it for me, and then he followed it up by saying "I'm going to need 15 minutes of Wardog time." I'm not sure I'm ready to pronounce him as somebody who "owns", but he was definitely more endearing tonight. Your description is pretty spot on. The mythical Wardog as he turns out is part beast, part human.
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Mar 14, 2019 06:16
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The 2-to-3 swap is actually almost always a Good Thing, with turnouts like this being aberrations, so they should keep doing it.
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Mar 14, 2019 22:14
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Rarity posted:The minority tribe still ends up being steamrolled more often than not And 2-to-2 splits somehow remedy this? Have a look back at the second half of the Survivor catalogue. The seasons with a vanilla 2-to-2 split were not as good, and I don't think it's just correlation over causation. We're talking One World, Caramoan, Redemption Island, BvW 1 and 2, South Pacific, etc. It's no coincidence that the majority of recent seasons have had more fluid tribe dynamics and thus higher entertainment value.
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Mar 15, 2019 00:10
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mancalamania posted:In terms of comparing seasons from a historical perspective, two of the seasons you listed (Redemption Island and South Pacific) didn't even have swaps, and the post-swap stuff in BvW1 was pretty good! I think the producers got really lucky that the swap-to-3 worked out in an exciting way the first two times they did it (31 and 33) mostly because different tribes kept losing Immunity and the players were playing aggressively. In 34, 35, and 36 all of the post-swap tribals were pretty boring by-the-numbers votes with little suspense except when there was an idol involved. I guess the swap in 37 worked produced 2 out of 3 good episodes, but I'll chalk that up more to the great cast than a good format. I definitely misread the wiki pages for those seasons so my bad there, and I’m totally a fan of 3 original tribe seasons. That’s the ideal format. But I don’t really buy your “room to maneuver” argument (is there really that much of a difference between a 7 person tribe and 5 person tribe in that regard?), and I think you’re putting too much emphasis on the few episodes following the swap rather than looking at how it influences whole season dynamics. The point of the 2>3 is to create more permutations for possible post-merge relationships in a way that is harder to optimize with 2>2 swaps. It also leads to better challenges and more idols, which is good. Plus, if you want to lean on the “good vs bad casting” argument to discredit the role of tribeswaps in 31/33/37, you’re conveniently forgetting that bad casting played a large part in the failures of 34/36. Basically I think we’re seeing the worst-case scenario of 2>3 swaps this season, but I still don’t see how 2>2 maximizes more interesting outcomes than 2>3 (though like Fast Luck just said, throwing a curveball and scrapping the swap altogether to keep people on their toes could be interesting). Vernacular fucked around with this message at 17:14 on Mar 15, 2019 |
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Mar 15, 2019 17:12
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It is a good thing when people who don't particularly seem to care much about the game get voted off, IMO. Victoria owns and I hope she successfully cons her way through the rest of the game. Though Aubrey reached some staggering heights of foolishness by not playing her idol. Like how do you not do that when you have firsthand knowledge that your pre-swapped tribe had been icing out returning players. Also, when that idol would nearly guarantee her making the merge in possession of a helpful advantage. I liked her in Kaoh Rong, but she has been a huge disappointment this season. I'm pumped that we're about to merge so we can finally learn about literally 1/3 of the cast. Vernacular fucked around with this message at 09:22 on Mar 21, 2019 |
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Mar 21, 2019 07:34
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Hey there's a reason Wardog tattooed a Nets logo on his body and not a Yankees logo ok (or did he do that as well?) In retrospect, a Wendy boot at that TC was kind of a foregone conclusion. Just no incentive for the Manus to go to rocks for her. Even with her gone, Victoria/Eric/Gavin are still in great shape. Post-merge, they can fall back on their old ties and go Kama-strong, or if that doesn't seem like such a good idea they can roll with the Lessus.
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Mar 21, 2019 15:08
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Lone Goat posted:There's a Mets tattoo on the other side of his arm. This explains everything. He's the most Mets player ever.
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Mar 21, 2019 18:21
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TMMadman posted:It sure did seem like Lauren, Dave and Kelly all said "Man, Wardog is annoying and will be impossible to work with later" (or something along those lines) at some point last night, so I was a little surprised that they didn't talk about just about voting Wardog and telling the other tribe at tribal. They correctly ascertained that Victoria/Eric/Gavin had incredibly little incentive to go to rocks for Wendy. Even without her, they still have the majority Kama alliance (or at least the 6 folks who were tight), and even if that's not a 100% certainty, it's an alluring enough prospect of guaranteed workable game position to encourage the path of least resistance to getting there. Also, I think those two tribes must have realized that they could potentially be working together (with the new Manus perhaps being swing votes), and it would make sense to come to a consensus about and eliminate the least reliable alliance member. But probably the more likely next scenario at this point is the Kama 6 vs. the Lessu 4 with Joe, Aurora and the mystery EoE player as swing votes (that is, if they all don't just decide to axe Joe, but I don't think Lessu would be shortsighted enough to not see the danger inherent in that). Vernacular fucked around with this message at 19:23 on Mar 21, 2019 |
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Mar 21, 2019 18:42
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STAC Goat posted:Manu/Lesu just played the game too hard, too early and self sabotaged until the tribe was toxic. Overplaying was definitely an issue (specifically by Kelly, Wardog and Chris...I think David is playing an underrated game this season), but to chalk up the majority of their failures to anything other than horribly uneven original tribes followed by the most unfavorable tribeswap scenario possible feels like an exaggeration. Vernacular fucked around with this message at 00:22 on Mar 22, 2019 |
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Mar 22, 2019 00:18
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Aerox posted:The tribe swap sucked, but I don't think the tribes would have been anywhere near as uneven physically if they hadn't voted off Reem and Chris so early. Keith clearly couldn't swim in the first challenge, then they kept him around to let him fail at swimming in the second challenge, and then after losing two people they voted off the strongest person on their tribe, and then seem really taken aback they can't win a challenge now. I think the producers were banking on the strength of Manu's women balancing out the strength of Kama's men. Hindsight is 20/20, but obviously it's not so shocking that Joe/fireman/YMCA guy/badass med student have been dunking all over a team made up of David Wright/guy who can't swim/dadbod newscaster/Tony Vlachos-looking dude who actually can't do anything. Even if their collegiate athlete didn't end up withering away on camera, their team was still riddled with weak links while Kama didn't really have any.
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Mar 22, 2019 02:29
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STAC Goat posted:Stephen thinking they might have tweaked something in the edit to play to the audience reactions In what way?
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Mar 27, 2019 22:04
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Maybe Kelley Wentworth is playing the galaxy brain chess of a 3x returning player that a pleb like me couldn't fathom, but I really have no clue what the gently caress she was doing tonight. To casually throw two entrenched allies under the bus (which, like Julie said, was a terrible signal to send to a group of potential allies you haven't even met yet) instead of trying to publicly rally support around an obvious vote (Joe) while privately looking for ways to unite Lessu and the Kama outcasts (which she knew about thanks to Joe) was just bad gameplay. But I guess at least she had -a- plan. Was Joe even trying tonight? Knowing his peripheral positioning within his own tribe, he had no business playing such a complacent game, following an immunity loss no less. He's such an underwhelming returnee. I don't fault the Kama 6 so much for blindsiding Joe and not looping in people outside the core alliance. He's obviously a huge immunity threat, and the risk of having Aurora or David/Devins use that information to organize a counter-move against the 6 was real. I think they played it well. This season is developing into a paradigmatic example of why these mixed returnee seasons tend to suck. New players either fawn over the returnees or get spooked and try to get them out ASAP. It makes for a really inorganic social world. As for the preview, one of the invisible cast members is totally gonna get medivac'ed.
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Mar 28, 2019 07:22
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xbilkis posted:At that point, pivoting to "anybody but me" is a perfectly valid strategy, given a dude she just voted out had reentered the game. Rick could have very easily had the same "anybody but me" strategy and swung to Kama to avoid going right back out. Except that the Devins boot was less the result of any sort of animus or irreconcilable differences and was more a situation of like “well, we’ve pagonged everybody we can...somebody from the alliance has to go”. As she often is, Wentworth got paranoid as gently caress that he would be bitter (even though by all appearances he’s a reasonable enough guy, and showed total understanding after his boot), and necessarily forced the Lessus into a totally unnecessary civil war that basically gave the Kama 6 carte blanche to vote out whoever they wanted. And yeah I do think David and Devins would have been a little more cognizant of other options on the table. David seemed genuinely surprised that Wentworth was that willing to flip. Whoever said that Wentworth has just been reverting to her old lovely habits was spot on. Fast Luck posted:There will be more opportunities to vote him out! Why blindside Aurora and vote off one of your own when it's putting you in a potential 6-6 situation... just to prevent Joe from winning a couple reward challenges?? You're more scared of Joe being super strong because he ate some Survivor pizza than you are of losing the numbers and being voted/idoled out? You are crazily underestimating the importance of weakening the biggest immunity threat by subjecting him to significantly worse living and eating conditions. Also, the Kama 6 are waaaay more unified than the other 6. You obviously put your money on them finding numbers from the Lessus + Aurora contingent than the other way around. Having said all that, taking out Wentworth would've been fine as well. They couldn't really go wrong. Vernacular fucked around with this message at 02:51 on Mar 29, 2019 |
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Mar 28, 2019 22:38
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The Bloop posted:Yeah EoE has a hawaiian sling at the very least and Joe is going to be just fine there and if those people are all really on the jury, he might just earn all their votes with seafood and mustache rides Fast Luck posted:They get some rice, just like the full players do. They have some kind of fishing gear and Joe can catch himself some fish and then even do the Survivor MacGyver thing and build himself a palace. I don't think Joe's gonna waste away out there, even if he misses the Survivor pizza etc. You mention the pizza flippantly but those rewards are super important, especially in the dog days of the season. Being out there also takes a pretty heavy psychological toll. They're not out there playing the game they came to play, they're all sitting together in lovely limbo. I don't think its a coincidence that one of the fresher evictees was the one to win the challenge and get back into the game. The jury twist is a weird kink, and maybe knowing that would've tipped the scales in favor of taking out Wentworth, but any sort of EoE jury nepotism logic (which anyway I don't think is totally foolproof, it's not a given that the returnee is going to be a jury darling by default) applies to everybody, not just Joe. Basically I think the people here squinting really hard to find problems with the Joe boot are overthinking things. Vernacular fucked around with this message at 20:39 on Mar 29, 2019 |
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Mar 29, 2019 20:37
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STAC Goat posted:That is - incidentally - my reason for thinking Joe was the wrong vote. For whatever reason Joe and Aurora were on Team Kama. So it just makes sense to me to use that and take apart Lesu and any threat of a majority coup forming. If they had gone after a Lesu then theoretically they retain their 8-4 advantage into next Tribal hoping Joe and Aurora don't wise up and start playing better to make it 6-6. But now they've betrayed Aurora and given her and the rest every reason to make that 6-6 happen if they can get their heads out of their asses. No squinting or EoE stuff. Just numbers. I just feel like the chances are high of at least one of the two following things happening: 1) Aurora maintaining her ties to Kama even after the blindside, 2) there being enough persistent ill will amongst the Lessus to keep them divided. The 6 are being bold but they have fair enough reason to.
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Mar 29, 2019 21:28
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Even though I thought it was a fair move (and another reason I just thought of: taking out Wentworth probably accelerates the timeline of the inevitable Kama implosion, whereas eliminating Joe allows for continued solidarity) it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see things fall apart based on *pauses for dramatic effect* the edit. The 6 are not getting a favorable portrayal. I think their main mistake was probably icing out Joe so much to begin with. Part of the situation was no doubt partially attributable to his ineptitude, but if they had made more seemingly genuine attempts to keep him involved, he wouldn’t have been such a floater and thus Wentworth would have been a more clear-cut option. edit: Now I’m just thinking about Joe’s overall Survivor deal. Like I wonder how much of his constant elevated threat is brought upon by himself vs. the inherent effects of being a buff, handsome, Fabio-haired island god. Ozzy’s an interesting comparison - for all his strategic shortcomings, he was at least much better at portraying himself as an everyman and ingratiating himself within groups than Joe, who just carries himself with this aloof, above-it-all manner a lot of the time. It’s pretty subtle at times, but it’s there, and I bet it’s a turn-off. Vernacular fucked around with this message at 22:02 on Mar 29, 2019 |
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Mar 29, 2019 21:51
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The whole notion of Aurora flipping easily to the Lessus just sounds inconclusive to me. She jumps ship for the chance to...go to rocks? Either way she's on the bottom of the group (presuming Lessu would have to re-unify in order to have any legitimate shot against Kama), but at least if she keeps tagging along with Kama, she has a shot of buddying up with like Victoria or somebody when they inevitably decide to recruit from the periphery to blindside part of the core alliance.
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Mar 29, 2019 23:48
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Occam's razor tells us that Kelley Wentworth is actually just not a top tier Survivor player.
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Apr 2, 2019 01:38
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That's hilarious. Rick Devens has owned all season and I'm glad he made it back. Wasn't there some off-broadcast moment during day 1 introductions when, after Wardog introduced himself, Rick said something to the effect of "well, this is awkward, but my name is also The Wardog"?
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Apr 3, 2019 07:45
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I understood Rick's frustration and appreciated the comedy of telling off Wardog, but he absolutely handled the fallout the wrong way. Not a good time to be inflexible. gently caress Wentworth and Lauren's indignation at him for calling them out at TC for last week's bullshit, though. Julia and Gavin came off as super gullible and played right into Wardog's (lol) hands. I would agree with Vic and the other posters who think they pulled the trigger an episode too early. But on the other hand, Eric and Ron seemed insufferable and I don't really fault the others for wanting to punish their hubris. Those guys had been playing 100% like people spoiled by not having to navigate any adversity whatsoever. What even was that whole "just wait for the loved one's visit!" gimmick? I'm beginning to sense that the editors want us rooting for Wentworth, Lauren and Wardog, and if they're really the "good guys" then the rest of the season is going to suck (unless David pulls out the win, which he may very well...he's doing a great job flying under the radar and staying on good terms with everyone).
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Apr 4, 2019 05:36
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IcePhoenix posted:Ron (or Chris maybe?) explained it in a confessional. They were using it to bully people into staying in line. Yeah I remember the confessional, it was more of a rhetorical question to draw attention to how lame of a tactic it was. I hope Devens digs himself out of the hole but I kind of think he won’t. Hopefully he’ll just morph into the most hilarious goat the game has seen.
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Apr 4, 2019 05:56
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STAC Goat posted:It probably wasn't the worst thing in a broad sense. Like just to keep the group as a hole together. But they clearly hit it too hard and its the worst way to handle something individual like Julia coming to ask when David goes. Eric read that terribly by not giving Julia more than the group platitude. It was actually an icky, manipulative, self-aggrandizing tactic that most people saw right through and openly criticized at TC! This past episode might hopefully lead to a bit of an enjoyable mess, but I can't say that any of the players have played exceptionally well or interestingly enough thus far to warrant rooting for them over any of the others. I am hoping Victoria takes her game to the next level. She has shown flashes of brilliance, but we've seen a passive showing from her these last few episodes. Maybe this is when she goes into higher gear. David has been the only one who has shown a consistent ability to manage relationships with people across alliance lines. I kind of don't want a returnee to win, but if he did I would be fine with it. At least he's shown a willingness/ability to develop his game, and I can't say the same thing about any of the other 3. However, at this rate, I'd pessimistically guess Wentworth slips through the cracks with this Kama explosion and stumbles into F3 with the help of her Lessu flunkies.
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Apr 4, 2019 07:43
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Yeah I think Rick ideally should've played it cool and taken a more publicly neutral stance (regardless of his true feelings/intent) instead of angrily pulling up the drawbridge (as funny as it was). I am just having a hard time giving Wardog full credit for that move. Like STAC mentioned earlier, we already saw Julia blow easily in the wind when Joe had that aside with her a few episodes back (and in retrospect, that scene must've been direct foreshadowing). Also, as we know now, Ron and Eric were doing a terrible job of leading the pack and being horribly transparent about their machinations. But I guess props to him for correctly identifying the two people most willing to flip.
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Apr 4, 2019 21:26
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Rick Devens owns. Survivor owns.
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Apr 11, 2019 05:24
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I mean...at this point everybody can pretty much read between the lines about the s40 theme after the last couple pages without having to actually read the spoiler'ed words, right?
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Apr 16, 2019 02:22
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Okay, Wardog. Respect. Well, many of these people are terrible idiots, but nonetheless, respect. Definitely ready to start giving him some serious credit, though he's gonna have a massive target on his back next week. It would be cool if he was consciously taking advantage of the fact that Kelley was like, for the first time in her Survivor career, enjoying the prolonged fruits of a majority alliance a little too much. She grew complacent AF. Failson posted:Wardog is going to win, isn't he? I think Rick's actually the true beneficiary here. Wardog's gonna come under fire a lot from here on out, and Rick might just smooth-talk his way through like Mike White last season. Vernacular fucked around with this message at 06:01 on Apr 18, 2019 |
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Apr 18, 2019 05:58
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Wardog and Rick are the only players with serious resumes at this point. Lauren and Victoria are in the next tier, as players who at least haven’t actively played awful games and are a couple moves away from consideration. Everybody else has been some combination of slimy, incompetent and invisible.
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Apr 18, 2019 16:11
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He's a pawn playing an entirely reactionary game who goes wherever the wind is blowing. Ironically, he also appears to think he's helping call the shots. Basically, he's the perfect goat. The only real hope he has right now is that the fact that his recent targets have been universally-perceived threats and/or outsiders might mean his old Kama bridges aren't totally burned, but at this point he has so much blood on his hands (and no self-generated big moves to show for it) that it's probably a moot point. As for Victoria, it does kind of seem like she's been the unfortunate victim of some very stupid alliance members. She's the least incompetent remaining Kama and maybe she can salvage her game by organizing a voting bloc to take out Wardog/Rick, but she' running out of time.
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Apr 20, 2019 22:41
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Rick is gonna have to go on a Mike Holloway-esque run here or else we're in for a lovely Kama final. I know we've got plenty of game left (as well as another EoE player) but how do we even rank the remaining Kamas? Maybe Victoria by virtue of not being blatantly incompetent/abrasive at any point? Obviously loving terrible Gavin is on the bottom. Also, I want Reem back in the game so badly.
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Apr 25, 2019 05:15
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I don't know about Ron. He's definitely playing harder and positioning himself as more of a key player than the others. He also hasn't had to backstab any long-term allies. But he's also slippery as gently caress, playing kind of a Nicaragua Sash (from what I vaguely recollect) sort of game. He might very well have the best resume of the remaining Kamas, but I could also see the jury thinking he's played a gross game and giving the win to an innocuous, heart-on-her-sleeve player like the etsy shop owner. Aurora deserves some props for persisting and doing well in challenges, but there isn't much precedent for players like her winning. "Scrappy, anti-social non-strategizer" makes for a tough road to the end. My Victoria guess is more a take about her potential. She seems smart enough and has enough goatier players to work with to maybe be a big move or two away from being able to convince a jury that she played a slow, thoughtful, discrete game. The edit is certainly not in her favor, though.
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Apr 25, 2019 05:54
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freeman posted:This is how I could see Julie winning over people like Gavin or Victoria who both have probably done more but seem like less likable people when you're living with them for weeks. I could even see Julie stealing votes from Ron, who has backstabbed just about everybody and is being shown to be more insufferable than either of the people you mentioned. He really is just tremendously dislikable.
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Apr 26, 2019 03:05
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She’s also just really nice. Like authentically and unassumingly nice, in the same way as people like Natalie White and Michelle Fitzgerald who ended up taking votes away from less agreeable gamebots. I don’t think she has played an interesting game at all, but if she finds herself at the end sitting next to people that haven’t been playing overtly great games, she might snag a few votes. Vernacular fucked around with this message at 03:41 on Apr 26, 2019 |
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Apr 26, 2019 03:38
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Bigass Moth posted:Nightmare goat final 3: Gavin, Julie, Reem. If Reem won this season it would actually own really hard.
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Apr 26, 2019 17:45
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Lone Goat posted:Rick Devens is too perfect for this dumbass game This
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May 2, 2019 06:52
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Vernacular posted:This Barring a crazy continued run, I just don't see how he pulls it out though. Julie's cooked, probably Gavin too. A jury couldn't possibly give him credit for the way the game has moved. He's been following the lead of others every step of the way. Victoria and Lauren got a bit of a boost there. I still think Vic especially is a dark horse candidate despite the invisible edit. I suppose Lauren as well at this point. Aurora has a bit of that Ben Driebergen mystique going on where enough people have manufactured her threat level into existence, but man her social game is atrocious. Just no bedside manner whatsoever. She's got the foster child arc though, and she's survived long enough to be relevant. Can't count her out I guess. Rooting so hard for Reem to get back into the game next week. Please. Vernacular fucked around with this message at 07:10 on May 2, 2019 |
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May 2, 2019 07:07
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The vote-split made sense. The extra vote thing was kind of dumb, but I guess it was on-brand for Aurora who had already given it away in an awkward attempt to shore up a relationship. And if she felt safe that night (and honestly I don’t think she has that much cred in the game at the end of the day), it was a somewhat understandable play, given that it was the last night she could use it.UltimoDragonQuest posted:I'm almost sold on the galaxy brain take that Julie is winning. All the Not-Ricks are too invisible to win but Julie fits the profile of someone whose edit would be bungled this badly. I was a bit more aligned with this take last week when she was at peak “nice mom”, but now she’s been on the wrong side of too many blindsides, plus Rick put a dent in her image with that TC call-out. If Rick doesn’t win, I would be surprised if the winner isn’t Victoria/Lauren/returnee.
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May 2, 2019 15:07
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