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Pener Kropoopkin
Jan 30, 2013

LGD posted:

tbf that's one more example than you've provided

you can also look at things like the Al Hussein attacks during the first Gulf War, Egyptian FROG-7's during the Yom Kippur War, etc.

I'm aware targeting has gotten significantly more accurate, but we're still fundamentally talking about slinging 500-1500kg warheads at targets that can be hardened or dispersed

So you’re aware of why what you’re talking about doesn’t compare to the hypothetical. when two countries with big missile stockpiles go to war I’ll call you.

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The Ol Spicy Keychain
Jan 17, 2013

I MEPHISTO MY OWN ASSHOLE

Wheeee posted:

the current rate of scientific advancement in most fields is accelerating, we are on the cusp of major revolutions in multiple fields. Yea rockets and airplanes are pretty well figured out now, but biotech is just ramping up and machine learning and general AI are advancing extremely quickly

feels like ive been hearing this for 15 years

Ayn Randi
Mar 12, 2009


Grimey Drawer
new and better ways to kill people is one area of technology you should never doubt america can and will improve on

Surprise Giraffe
Apr 30, 2007
1 Lunar Road
Moon crater
The Moon

The Ol Spicy Keychain posted:

feels like ive been hearing this for 15 years

:golfclap:

Moridin920
Nov 15, 2007

by FactsAreUseless

The Ol Spicy Keychain posted:

feels like ive been hearing this for 15 years

There have been a lot of advancements in that time though? Like just look at smartphones idk.

juche avocado
Dec 23, 2009





The Ol Spicy Keychain posted:

feels like ive been hearing this for 15 years

there have been, uh, i think the scientific term is a butt-poo poo-ton? — a butt-poo poo-ton of revolutionary advancements over the past 15 years, so, uh

oh of course I've been beaten

juche avocado
Dec 23, 2009





this is to say nothing of our newfound ability to magic Gigs out of the ether, for the economy

!!!

Grapplejack
Nov 27, 2007

WW3 is a nuclear war. No one wins.

Ayn Randi
Mar 12, 2009


Grimey Drawer

Grapplejack posted:

WW3 is a nuclear war. No one wins.

actually i think you'll find the dead win extremely hard

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
skeleton empire gonna rise from the ashes and it owns

Ayn Randi
Mar 12, 2009


Grimey Drawer

Cerebral Bore posted:

skeleton empire gonna rise from the ashes and it owns


we're gonna repeat the history of capital and empire, but with skeletons

qkkl
Jul 1, 2013

by FactsAreUseless
Assuming nukes aren't used, Russia doesn't have the industrial capacity to keep up with the US. The US could just trade losses until Russia's military is depleted. China has the industrial capacity to match the US, but it doesn't have the tech yet to match the US in losses, so it would lose too.

If nukes are allowed then China simply doesn't have enough nukes to destroy the US, while the US has more than enough to destroy all of China. Russia has enough nukes to destroy the US though.

LGD
Sep 25, 2004

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

So you’re aware of why what you’re talking about doesn’t compare to the hypothetical. when two countries with big missile stockpiles go to war I’ll call you.

of course, but we're all extrapolating from limited and incomplete data - and the historic data for older and less accurate missiles points to them not being particularly effective at shutting down airbases, and the newest example involves a fairly large deployment of much more accurate missiles and the results there suggest that there is at least a very strong possibility that they will fail to utterly devastate a prepared enemy and actually render aircraft and airbases useless


a bald assertion that this just ain't so and Chinese/Russian missiles with warheads/theoretical accuracy that is very similar to a Tomahawk will be hugely more effective through sheer volume of fire isn't particularly persuasive to me (because 59 Tomahawk missiles is actually quite a few [>1% of the US stockpile] and resulted in disruption to operations measured in hours - obviously the forewarning makes a big difference, but a real no-poo poo war would involve degraded intelligence/targeting information for any adversary and the US has more than a handful of airbases available to it)

LGD has issued a correction as of 01:46 on Mar 12, 2019

420 Gank Mid
Dec 26, 2008

WARNING: This poster is a huge bitch!

Does it count as winning for the USA if it's our killbots that end up going skynet and purging the earth of all human life?

sleeptalker
Feb 17, 2011

420 Gank Mid posted:

Does it count as winning for the USA if it's our killbots that end up going skynet and purging the earth of all human life?

Yes.

Yinlock
Oct 22, 2008

the usa will lose because it sucks and is bad

LGD
Sep 25, 2004

420 Gank Mid posted:

Does it count as winning for the USA if it's our killbots that end up going skynet and purging the earth of all human life?

imo it depends on the killbots' reasoning - i.e. if its a classic AI rebellion against its putative masters scenario then no, but if its Universal Paperclips-type thing where the AI is just trying to achieve its original goal of Making America Great Again and the most optimal way to do that involves Killing All Humans then yes

Rand alPaul
Feb 3, 2010

by Nyc_Tattoo

twoday posted:

World War 3 will be rough but World War 4 is the real bad one, and then it's gonna be bronze-age weapons in World War 5

Civilization 2's bold predictions will become correct when a phalanx man defeats a tank in combat.

StashAugustine
Mar 24, 2013

Do not trust in hope- it will betray you! Only faith and hatred sustain.

Ayn Randi posted:

twilight struggle 2 when

there's labyrinth: the war on terror but it sucks

Pozload Escobar
Aug 21, 2016

by Reene


god dang it needs sound

https://i.imgur.com/W0VPV2j.mp4

Ayn Randi
Mar 12, 2009


Grimey Drawer

StashAugustine posted:

there's labyrinth: the war on terror but it sucks

i want an event deck full of TRUMP

edit:

Ayn Randi has issued a correction as of 04:43 on Mar 12, 2019

Ayn Randi
Mar 12, 2009


Grimey Drawer
imagine being the guy doing the full deck writeup at the back of the rulebook that explains the historical context of all the cards

juche avocado
Dec 23, 2009





^^^ i saw Ayn Randi made the last post and i laughed and wanted to compliment u on ur sn

qkkl posted:

Assuming nukes aren't used, Russia doesn't have the industrial capacity to keep up with the US. The US could just trade losses until Russia's military is depleted. China has the industrial capacity to match the US, but it doesn't have the tech yet to match the US in losses, so it would lose too.

hold that thought while i design increasingly expensive and complex machines of war and then destroy the industrial tooling necessary to build more of them because ????????

also in what world is capacity for war exactly & exclusively synonymous with capacity for industry

you can make exactly the same loss-trading argument but about warm bodies and for the other side(s)

juche avocado
Dec 23, 2009





i mean GOD haven't you ever played a pdx mapgame????

Typo
Aug 19, 2009

Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Ayn Randi posted:

imagine being the guy doing the full deck writeup at the back of the rulebook that explains the historical context of all the cards

I seriously thought about twilight struggle 2 before, basically US starts controlling everything and China has to take the map

Cards:

belt and road: China places 4 influence anywhere in Middle-East, Africa, Asia

Trump tweet: USA lose 2 influence anywhere, gains 1VP

Maduro: US loses all influence in Venezuela, China gains 2 influence

The "Russia Card": 4 ops, every time a player uses it goes to other player

"Syrian War": like Korean War in original but for syria

Typo has issued a correction as of 05:15 on Mar 12, 2019

KaptainKrunk
Feb 6, 2006


can't wait for gmt games mr. president starring trpmp

turn off the TV
Aug 4, 2010

moderately annoying

isn't one of the conceits of the US airforce that it doesn't matter if Russia or China can bomb their airbases because that would start a nuclear war

Relin
Oct 6, 2002

You have been a most worthy adversary, but in every game, there are winners and there are losers. And as you know, in this game, losers get robotizicized!
whoa whoa whoa military technology spending has diminishing returns???

i am not advocating for the draft at all but imagine these countries engaging the US in a land war and totally destroying the US (esp on our soil) because they have no problem allocating bodies really tickles me

Relin has issued a correction as of 05:38 on Mar 12, 2019

Victory Position
Mar 16, 2004

juche avocado posted:

this is to say nothing of our newfound ability to magic Gigs out of the ether, for the economy

!!!

the gig military

Uncle Wemus
Mar 4, 2004

Pener Kropoopkin posted:

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-apparently-gets-its-rear end-handed-to-it-in-war-games-2019-3

"In every case I know of, the F-35 rules the sky when it's in the sky," Robert Work, a former deputy secretary of defense and an experienced war-gamer, said Thursday. "But it gets killed on the ground in large numbers."


this is the only time i've ever seen the f35 defended outside of some tom clancey military wank

turn off the TV
Aug 4, 2010

moderately annoying

Uncle Wemus posted:

this is the only time i've ever seen the f35 defended outside of some tom clancey military wank

Other stupid military simulation war games have concluded that the f 35 is actually very good

KaptainKrunk
Feb 6, 2006


The Ol Spicy Keychain posted:

feels like ive been hearing this for 15 years

we have it is just that going from farm to city, no car to car is a lot bigger jump than the creation of the internet

it doesn't help that computerization and its benefits have largely accrued to the top .1% and no one else has really seen the material benefit. computerization is also largely wasted on a market economy

turn off the TV posted:

Other stupid military simulation war games have concluded that the f 35 is actually very good

all of these simulations have red team wiping out command and control and satellite communications in the first hours of conflict and then the F-35 magically ends up kicking rear end still hahah

Ayn Randi
Mar 12, 2009


Grimey Drawer
the last 15 years have seen absolutely jawdropping developments in technologies for the rich to extract wealth, have you SEEN the stock market number??

fabergay egg
Mar 1, 2012

it's not a rhetorical question, for politely saying 'you are an idiot, you don't know what you are talking about'


turn off the TV posted:

Other stupid military simulation war games have concluded that the f 35 is actually very good

lockheed martin internal testing also shows that the f35 is extremely good & cool, and is underpriced if anything

bird with big dick
Oct 21, 2015

I’m gonna gently caress a molerat.

GalacticAcid
Apr 8, 2013

NEW YORK VALUES
I’m glad we’re gonna lose OP

Ayn Randi
Mar 12, 2009


Grimey Drawer
aren't us wargame simulations always fixed to ensure us victory and they just claim do-overs every time that doesnt happen as expected? like i remember the same thing happening before the iraq war(?) where on the first day the red commander of non-specific-middle-eastern-country invalidated the super technological surveillance tools by using motorcycle couriers and lights and flare signalling then scouted the blue fleet with fishing boats and sank the lot of them with an all-in alpha strike prompting the blue command to decide they were going to un-sink all those ships and change the rules so they just weren't allowed to do things in their war game simulation that would cause the us to not win, lol

HerraS
Apr 15, 2012

Looking professional when committing genocide is essential. This is mostly achieved by using a beret.

Olive drab colour ensures the genocider will remain hidden from his prey until it's too late for them to do anything.



lol americans cant win a war unless they can outproduce their enemies five to one and get someone else to die in droves

Moist von Lipwig
Oct 28, 2006

by FactsAreUseless
Tortured By Flan

Wheeee posted:

the current rate of scientific advancement in most fields is accelerating, we are on the cusp of major revolutions in multiple fields. Yea rockets and airplanes are pretty well figured out now, but biotech is just ramping up and machine learning and general AI are advancing extremely quickly

i mostly agree with you with the caveat that biotech is, indeed, developing rapidly and will probably be the forefront of all kinds of horrors in the next major war. AI/ML on the other hand, has hit huge stumbling blocks, largely around the same bottlenecks that traditional computing hardware has. maybe there'll be some big breakthroughs in quantum computing that'll change things but right now it's a lot of hype with little to show for it.

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juche avocado
Dec 23, 2009





HerraS posted:

lol americans cant win a war unless they can outproduce their enemies five to one and get someone else to die in droves

the us civil war binch

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