|
Wow, I wasn't expecting a full write-up with different tiers and everything. Hell yeah Chad Pennington lining up out wide to gently caress Belichik and the Pats Logicblade, this is a great thread. Thank you.
|
#
?
Aug 17, 2019 09:46
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 5, 2024 20:19 |
|
|
CannonFodder posted:Wow, I wasn't expecting a full write-up with different tiers and everything. Hell yeah Chad Pennington lining up out wide to gently caress Belichik and the Pats I had a lot of fun doing it. I would be interested in seeing just how different it would be for runningbacks, or other positions. But that will probably be well into the future hahaha.
|
|
#
?
Aug 17, 2019 10:06
|
|
|
Pennington didn't really have an awful arm until he had like 6 shoulder surgeries in his first 3 years or some insane poo poo like that. Don't rush back from rotator cuff operations kids, especially if it involves 300 lb genetic freaks hitting you repeatedly.
|
|
#
?
Aug 17, 2019 13:09
|
|
|
My favorite Peyton Manning highlight https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEEYbXVCoT0 Also, I love the kind of analysis going on in this thread. Great work OP Thinking about it some, if you don't want it to end you could maybe try another one with RB's, WR's or (my favorite) 100 defensive players. Even top 25 offensive lines or something. Thing is, it's just so much harder to judge those positions in a vacuum than it is QB's, and even quarterbacks are reliant on surrounding skill players, o-line, defense etc. Or maybe just for kicks try the opposite approach and get into the worst QB's who somehow managed to start 50-75 games or something. That might be funny and bring up some names many of us forgot.
|
|
#
?
Aug 17, 2019 15:28
|
|
|
BiggerBoat posted:Or maybe just for kicks try the opposite approach and get into the worst QB's who somehow managed to start 50-75 games or something. That might be funny and bring up some names many of us forgot. 
|
|
#
?
Aug 17, 2019 15:39
|
|
|
I wasn't entirely kidding about figuring out some kind of "Just Wins Games" quotient, I'm just working out how to go about it. I think the most accurate way to explain this would be "team wins despite qb ineptitude" where passer rating and TD:INT ratio are the primary weighted stats. That said, lowering required starts to 50 makes the pool pretty huge, so there's going to be a cutoff at probably 50 players. Maybe 100. It could be quite a while before I manage to get a list together, but the idea is there if someone smarter than me (and better with data analysis) wants to jump on it.
|
|
#
?
Aug 17, 2019 16:05
|
|
|
I feel like this is considered a goon project and that would mean we have witnessed the first goon project ever actually completed.
|
|
#
?
Aug 17, 2019 16:32
|
|
|
Logicblade posted:I had a lot of fun doing it. I would be interested in seeing just how different it would be for runningbacks, or other positions. But that will probably be well into the future hahaha. RBs might be a bit funny if only to see how much higher than everyone else Jamaal Charles is.
|
|
#
?
Aug 17, 2019 16:45
|
|
|
Fenrir posted:I wasn't entirely kidding about figuring out some kind of "Just Wins Games" quotient, I'm just working out how to go about it. I think the most accurate way to explain this would be "team wins despite qb ineptitude" where passer rating and TD:INT ratio are the primary weighted stats. Got your JWG stat right here Tom Brady- 6 Joe Montana- 4 Terry Bradshaw- 4
|
|
#
?
Aug 17, 2019 17:10
|
|
|
Going through this entire incredible thread and having Tom Brady be #1 is like the time Microsoft put untold manhours into developing an adaptive conversational AI and it immediately started saying Hitler was right.
|
|
#
?
Aug 17, 2019 21:49
|
|
|
Catfish Noodlin posted:Going through this entire incredible thread and having Tom Brady be #1 is like the time Microsoft put untold manhours into developing an adaptive conversational AI and it immediately started saying Hitler was right. It sounds like you're saying Hitler was right.
|
|
#
?
Aug 17, 2019 22:01
|
|
|
swims posted:I feel like this is considered a goon project and that would mean we have witnessed the first goon project ever actually completed. The two volumes of the GIP dick art coffee table book beg to differ
|
|
#
?
Aug 17, 2019 22:36
|
|
|
I love Tom Brady and I have therefore rated this thread a 5/5. Thank you for your consideration
|
|
#
?
Aug 18, 2019 14:27
|
|
|
swims posted:I feel like this is considered a goon project and that would mean we have witnessed the first goon project ever actually completed. We got Mike Trout's nickname of the Millville Meteor to stick.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2019 08:49
|
|
|
Unironically his best Nickname especially since we got it started before every sports writer started to compare him to Mickey Mantle. (For those who dont know, Mickey Mantle's nickname was "The Commerce Comet")
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2019 16:25
|
|
|
fartknocker posted:
on one hand these posts where you just try to slam as many zany tryhard one-liners and metaphors comparing Satan and Tom Brady as possible are ultra cringy but on the other hand I'm pretty sure they're partly the only thing keeping this forum alive at times. that, and I think we exhausted every non-creatively bankrupt joke many years ago so I guess I can't blame anyone for putting old poo poo into forums syndication after all though, if hailing Satan is wrong, I don't want to be right. just see my av for proof 
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2019 17:47
|
|
|
I heard Teddy Bridgewater's name come up on the radio today and it got me thinking some more about guys who just never really got an honest shot. I liked him coming out of college and he did well when he played before the injury. I wanted the Jags to take him the year they drafted Blake the Mistake. I'm not one of these Tebow guys (I live in NE Florida) but it seems to me he was good enough to at least hang on to a backup spot or be one of those dudes you can run certain plays for. He had a winning record in the NFL and a lifetime 17/9 TD/INT ratio to go along with 6.7 YPA. We know he can run. His completion % is abysmal and, christ he took a lot of sacks but I've seen worse guys get more chances. Baltimore and Arizona are redesigning their entire offenses around weird QB skill sets. Then again, Belichick and Pederson both too a pass on him so maybe he was hopeless. He clearly can't play baseball. Reminds me of a bigger Doug Flutie. Trying to think of a few more names. Matt Flynn comes to mind. I can't see where he sucks. His big chance got squashed when Seattle drafted Russell Wilson but the times I've seen him he looked OK to me and his stat line is fine. Reminds me of Matt Schaub a little. AJ McCarron has never gotten a shot. So much of it is timing, injuries and being in the right place or the right system at the right time. Ask Nick Foles. Kurt Warner. Jim Plunkett and Doug Williams. Steve Young for that matter. Who knows if Brady would have ever gotten a shot? Or if Goff would have broken out if Jeff Fisher had hung around? I dunno. Just keeping the thread alive. BiggerBoat fucked around with this message at 23:58 on Aug 19, 2019 |
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2019 23:55
|
|
|
Teddy Bridgewater - He still might get a decent shot when Brees retires, he's in a fairly good position right now and I think he gave up a chance to goto teams that would have given him a better shot to start, but decided to stay with the Saints this off-season. His career stats suggest he struggles to push the ball downfield and throws a lot of checkdowns. A guy probably better suited in a backup role. Tim Tebow - 6.4 Yards an Attempt, 46.5% completion rate. Tebow has one of the slowest throwing motions I've ever seen in an NFL QB. We don't have a ton of data on the guy, but what limited sampling there is suggests he's not even suited to back anyone up. Matt Flynn - Matt Flynn's claim to fame was that season ending Week 17 game against Detroit in 2012 where he threw for 6 Touchdowns that lead to Flynn getting a free agent deal with the Seahawks. He lost the training camp battle to Russel Wilson and the rest is history. He had a few starts after that but against most of his stats point to a guy that checks down a ton and isn't really a starting caliber guy. AJ McCarron - lol, imagine if the Browns traded for McCarron and never drafted Baker
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2019 00:18
|
|
|
DariusLikewise posted:Teddy Bridgewater - He still might get a decent shot when Brees retires, he's in a fairly good position right now and I think he gave up a chance to goto teams that would have given him a better shot to start, but decided to stay with the Saints this off-season. His career stats suggest he struggles to push the ball downfield and throws a lot of checkdowns. A guy probably better suited in a backup role. He likely would have had an OK-to-good career at Minnesota if not for https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DimxUGfHIqs Mike Zimmer made noises like he still wanted to start him if he ever got healthy enough.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2019 00:58
|
|
|
DariusLikewise posted:Teddy Bridgewater - He still might get a decent shot when Brees retires, he's in a fairly good position right now and I think he gave up a chance to goto teams that would have given him a better shot to start, but decided to stay with the Saints this off-season. His career stats suggest he struggles to push the ball downfield and throws a lot of checkdowns. A guy probably better suited in a backup role. This is all fair. I'm just mentioning names in a league where Nathan Peterman, Matt Barkley and Blaine Gabbert still have jobs and trying to generate discussion where none of us really know jack poo poo, especially ahead of time without the benefit of hindsight. I'm not claiming any of these are dudes are great or anything so much as wondering who might have been if given the chance. I'm certain there are scores of QB's who could have better careers in better situations. And none of the guys I spit balled have a big enough sample size to tell us much of anything. There's no shame in getting beaten out by Russell Wilson and even the Seahawks were surprised with him. In a different world it could easily have been: Kurt Warner: Grocery store clerk who did OK in the arena league and played during some NFL replacement games during a strike while Trent Green led a record setting high powered Rams offense to the Super Bowl. Tom Brady: Slow footed backup college QB 7th round pick from NE who got dealt to the Bengals in 2002 for draft picks, where he languished under bad coaching as a backup, following Drew Bledsoe's 3rd trip to the Super Bowl and second under Bill Belichick. Russell Wilson: Drafted as potential backup to free agent signing Matt Flynn, suffered a devastating knee injury in the 1st preseason game after surprising in camp as Flynn led Seattle to a playoff birth in his first year as a starter. Nick Foles: Proven a failure as a starting QB with the Rams after a record setting season with Eagles under Chip Kelly who elected to retire in 2016.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2019 01:02
|
|
|
DariusLikewise posted:Matt Flynn - Matt Flynn's claim to fame was that season ending Week 17 game against Detroit in 2012 where he threw for 6 Touchdowns that lead to Flynn getting a free agent deal with the Seahawks. He lost the training camp battle to Russel Wilson and the rest is history. He had a few starts after that but against most of his stats point to a guy that checks down a ton and isn't really a starting caliber guy. To be fair to Matt Flynn, he also played well when he subbed in for Rodgers against New England in 2010, so he had a whopping two notable games when he signed that big ol' deal. But, he quickly became clear to everyone he was never the best QB on any roster he was a part of. Hell, in Oakland he was benched for Matt McGloin. The only reason he even got more starts with the Packers is Rodgers and Seneca Wallace both got hurt, so they needed a dude to back up Scott Tolzien who already knew the offense. He ended up starting games, was meh, and then bounced around as a depth guy who never saw the field. He clearly had chances, but aside from one outstanding game with a loading passing offense, was average at best everywhere else, and never did enough to earn a starting chance again.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2019 01:17
|
|
|
You want an insane what-if? Michael Vick drafted by the Eagles, coached by Andy Reid from day 1, never gets involved in that dogfighting poo poo. Think about that. e: VVV I'm not so sure about that. Fenrir fucked around with this message at 01:23 on Aug 20, 2019 |
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2019 01:20
|
|
|
Fenrir posted:You want an insane what-if? So, he'd STILL get bounced in the playoffs every year and never win a Super Bowl?
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2019 01:22
|
|
|
Fenrir posted:You want an insane what-if? Well, I don't know, cause then the Eagles wouldn't have been able to draft... (Looks on Wikipedia who the Eagles took in the 1st round in 2001) ...  Freddie Mitchell
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2019 01:27
|
|
|
Fenrir posted:You want an insane what-if? Or if the Chargers had just taken him when they had the pick and saddled him in San Diego with Norv Turner
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2019 01:41
|
|
|
a neat cape posted:Or if the Chargers had just taken him when they had the pick and saddled him in San Diego with Norv Turner Do you really want a world without LdT, and likely without Marty?
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2019 01:44
|
|
|
fartknocker posted:Do you really want a world without LdT, and likely without Marty? At the time I did. Looking back? Hell no
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2019 01:45
|
|
|
fartknocker posted:To be fair to Matt Flynn, he also played well when he subbed in for Rodgers against New England in 2010, so he had a whopping two notable games when he signed that big ol' deal. But, he quickly became clear to everyone he was never the best QB on any roster he was a part of. Hell, in Oakland he was benched for Matt McGloin. The only reason he even got more starts with the Packers is Rodgers and Seneca Wallace both got hurt, so they needed a dude to back up Scott Tolzien who already knew the offense. He ended up starting games, was meh, and then bounced around as a depth guy who never saw the field. He clearly had chances, but aside from one outstanding game with a loading passing offense, was average at best everywhere else, and never did enough to earn a starting chance again.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2019 04:16
|
|
|
Bridgewater is an interesting case of what might have been if he didn't get injured. He had a mediocre first year as a full time starter, but it is also important to remember that the 2015 Minnesota Vikings had maybe one of the worst pass blocking lines I've ever seen. I think his overall pressure rate for the entire season was 50+%.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2019 06:02
|
|
|
Bridgewater seemed like Andy Dalton quality when playing. A guy you would be okay starting but you shouldn't expect to win on him alone. But definitely better than Cousins.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2019 06:14
|
|
|
Bridgewater didn't have a very good deep ball and Cousins does even with the crap O-line.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2019 14:08
|
|
|
I know it's hard to believe watching them play but the OL talent Cousins was working with last season was a massive improvement on the gaping void that Bridgewater had
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2019 14:20
|
|
|
seen two people call dalton better than cousins now. won't forget the kindness of strangers
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2019 14:32
|
|
|
So... can we get Luck added to the list?
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2019 03:52
|
|
|
fartknocker posted:So... can we get Luck added to the list? hahaha, sure, that was a freaking shocker.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2019 03:55
|
|
|
Logicblade posted:hahaha, sure, that was a freaking shocker. Well that's at least a plus for today
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2019 04:03
|
|
|
Ok so, here's his legitimate ranking. Jesus Christ Indianapolis loving blew it. 4. Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts 2012-2018) 2nd Place Colts QB Career Record 57-37-0 (60.64%) 24th out of 103* Record in Games with Good Defense 36-6-0 (85.71%) 15th out of 103* Record in Games with Bad Defense 21-31-0 (40.38%) 8th out of 103* Percentage of Games with Good Defense 42/94 (44.68%) 79th out of 103* Wins Above Average in a 16 Game Season (2.310)* /cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/65052656/1168984134.jpg.0.jpg) So I had an idea how high Andrew Luck would be on this list, to a degree anyway. The teams around him have been awful, and he's been dragging them kicking and screaming to the postseason year after year. I would have thought this sort of performance would put him squarely in the top 20, hanging out with guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Dan Marino. Boy was I wrong. Turns out he would have ending up clearing the top 5 on this list. His splits are amazing, and his defensive ranking is just slightly better than Drew Brees' if you want some context for just how rough he's had it. Indianapolis moved on from the greatest prospect in the NFL Draft to have the next great thing fall squarely into their laps. With Peyton Manning missing the entirety of the 2011 season, the rest of the team did their part to secure the number one draft pick and secure a spot for Andrew Luck. But when the best prospect is so apparently clear cut... there's always a second guy to make people wonder if they made a wrong decision somewhere. Rather than Ryan Leaf, the hyper athletic Robert Griffin the Third was getting a ton of buzz, and draft pundits made it seem like their was a legit shot the Colts could have gone that direction. They didn't, they opted for the sure thing, the most cerebral QB since Peyton, from the alma mater of John Elway. It was supposed to be a match made in heaven. They would build a strong team around a franchise QB and be back to the super bowl in a few seasons. That never happened. Sure the Colts were able to grab a talented receiver in TY Hilton but... they didn't get much else to work with. Still Andrew Luck took to the NFL game with aplomb, and revitalized a team that had gone 2-14 the season prior to an 11-5 record, and the first wildcard in the AFC. However their first playoff run was stopped by the Ray Lewis retirement tour, and Luck was well contained by the Ravens defense in his first playoff appearance. Luck's second season would see him shake off the rookie mistakes, and truly become one of the more efficient players in the game. With a second straight 11-5 season to show for it, and this time winning the AFC South, they were set for a home game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Which just so happened to be one of the wildest playoff games in recent memory. The Chiefs exploded to a 38-10 lead just 2 minutes into the second half as Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles went ham on the Colts defense which had been fairly stout that season. But the Chiefs started to cave to injuries, as both Charles and backup Knile Davis were lost to injury, along with several members of the Chiefs defense. With a little help from Andy Reid clock management on the other side, the comeback began. Luck led a quick touchdown drive, then got the ball back quickly thanks to a Robert Mathis forced fumble. Another quick drive, and the Colts brought it to within 14 points halfway through the third. Things looked dangerous when Luck threw an interception immediately after the Colts D forced a three and out, but with the Chiefs only able to get a field goal with the short field, Luck came right back and drove the Colts to the endzone, ending the third quarter down 41-31. Another stop, another quick drive for the Colts and it was 41-38 with just over 10 minutes to go. The Chiefs were able to lead a field goal drive that took 4 minutes off the clock, but it just didn't matter, as Luck threw a 64 yard bomb to TY Hilton to take the lead 45-44. The Chiefs just could not get another drive going, and turned it over on downs. Sadly the excitement for the Colts would not continue another week, because the Patriots simply do not give up big leads like that. With a decisive loss to the Patriots, the Colts were once again left to the drawing board, but full of optimism for what was to come. Luck would put the league on notice in 2014. With a 40 passing TD season, nearly 4800 yards through the air, the Colts would once again go 11-5, with a much worse defense than the years prior. Still, it was enough to win the AFC South, and earn them a date with the Bengals in the wildcard round. The Bengals would stay close early, but eventually Luck and the Colts would pull away in the third, winning 26-10. Their next date was against the Denver Broncos, and Lucks predecessor Peyton Manning. Fortunately for the Colts, John Fox had already given up on the team by this point, opting to shop for furniture in his new Chicago home than try and gameplan for his opponent. So the Colts stomped the unprepared Broncos, and found themselves in the AFC Championship with the New England Patriots once again. This time the beating was even more thorough than the last, as the Patriots won 45-7. Luck threw a couple of interceptions, failed to complete 40% of his passes, and the team was crushed by the rushing attack of LeGarrette Blount. This would be the closest the Colts would get in Luck's brief time with the Colts. 2015 would mark a sudden decline, as Luck dealt with the strain of carrying the team on his back for so long. He tore the labrum in his shoulder, had his kidney lacerated, and had to miss the entire second half of the 2015 season. Matt Hasslebeck did a fine job in relief, but the Colts were only able to make it to an 8-8 record, well short of the postseason dream. Luck would come back for most of the 2016 season, but he was still struggling with injury and didn't look like nearly the same guy he was in 2014, but he was impressive all the same. Despite having a top ten scoring offense, the Colts once again went 8-8 and missed the playoffs. The relationship with Coach Chuck Pagano was looking really bad, and his relationship with the training staff was looking worse, considering he was never out for a long period of time to rehab his shoulder. He started 2017 on the PUP list, and despite his best efforts, was not able to recover in time for the 2017 season. The Colts sputtered with Jacoby Brissett and Scott Tolzien, and as a result they went 4-12, missing the playoffs and getting coach Chuck fired. Frank Reich, the comeback king of the Buffalo Bills was named the new head coach, and helped Andrew Luck complete his own comeback, as the young QB finally recovered from the shoulder injury that had been plaguing him since early in 2015. With a healthy Luck, a new offensive minded head coach, and a team that was building strength in the trenches, Andrew Luck had the greatest season of his career. Despite a slow 1-5 start with a lot of high scoring losses, the Colts grew with coach Reich, and finished the season strong, going 9-1 in the last ten games to secure a wildcard spot at 10-6. Luck completed 67% of his passes for 4593 yards, 39 TDs, only 15 INT's and he was only sacked 18 times, a career low for him. The Colts continued to look like one of the hottest teams in football, dismantling the division winning Texans 21-7 in their house. However the Colts simply could not get their offense going against the Kansas City Chiefs and eventually sputtered in a 31-13 loss to the new hotness in the league. Things were really looking up though, as Andrew Luck was heading into his prime, and his bevy of new young pieces continue to grow and develop. Then on August 24th 2019, he announced his retirement. This is one of the most shocking retirements I've ever seen. At least with Calvin Johnson, he was making it clear he was unhappy in Detroit. With Barry Sanders, he had toiled for 11 years up to that point. Luck's retirement just felt like it came out of nowhere. It never felt like he got a chance to put his stamp on the league like Peyton and Elway did before him. He was always overshadowed by someone else. Hell, he didn't even win rookie of the year with his performance because Robert Griffin's rookie was just that good. Still, Luck did manage to get the 90+ starts to qualify for these rankings, and while it is a little late, he's getting the props he deserves from me, at the very least.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2019 05:03
|
|
|
Indy needs to rack up one more hall of fame early retirement to match Detroit though.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2019 05:35
|
|
|
Colts are doomed until Isray retires or dies. This was the only sane way out of the madness. defaultluser fucked around with this message at 13:49 on Aug 25, 2019 |
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2019 05:43
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 5, 2024 20:19 |
|
|
I'm watching ESPN this morning & it's still taking some time to process that Andrew Luck just retired. I wish him the best in the rest of his life, and may Irsay OD on crap gas station boner pills so that the Colts can have a less garbage owner.
|
|
#
?
Aug 25, 2019 15:40
|
|
