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I'm gonna take another crack at the pick'em... had to take last year off because I missed all of week 1  Watch me miss my record by like 40 picks this year.
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Sep 2, 2019 00:47
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Completely forgot about these last year but I'm in on week 1 again. And probably out by week 3.
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Sep 3, 2019 16:38
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Eagles and Seahawks are the biggest favorites this week (over 4-to-1), followed by Saints/Cowboys/Ravens (all around 3-to-1). Interesting to see the strength of the bias against divisional games in SAS, as the Eagles are 4th in picks and the Cowboys are tied for 9th. I'm going with the Eagles because in big pool competitions I err on the side of not going with the most popular selection; that being said the Seahawks are a solid choice. I think the Bengals are the better choice for reverse; both a tough matchup AND probably the toughest they'll have all year.
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Sep 4, 2019 19:05
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Ditch posted:I'm going with the Eagles Division games are traps, particularly in Week 1. Seahawks are definitely the "safe" pick but the Ravens are probably another solid option, Miami is going to be trash.
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Sep 4, 2019 19:11
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WampaLord posted:Division games are traps, particularly in Week 1. Yeah there aren't a lot of great picks for eliminator in week 1. I like the Ravens and Seahawks as well, but I'm absolutely floored by the line on that KC/Jacksonville game. 3.5 is a slim rear end margin for that game Eagles seem like a solid bet but yeah, I'll probably stay away from both those NFCE contests even though they have favorable spreads
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Sep 4, 2019 19:19
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Eliminator has carried over our funbux totals from the preseason, e.g. I have 4800. Is that intended?
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Sep 4, 2019 19:27
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Leperflesh posted:Eliminator has carried over our funbux totals from the preseason, e.g. I have 4800. Is that intended? Even wagering with make believe money I feel like I should call you a degenerate here.
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Sep 4, 2019 19:29
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WampaLord posted:Division games are traps, particularly in Week 1. For the hell of it I looked at my SAS Eliminator history. I have a 175-33 record overall (84.1%), and 68-14 in divisional games (82.9%); pretty negligible difference. I'm also 13-0 in week 1 
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Sep 4, 2019 20:46
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week 1 is the deadliest week imo cause we dont really know poo poo yet
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Sep 4, 2019 20:50
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Play posted:week 1 is the deadliest week imo cause we dont really know poo poo yet I remember when picking the Lions over the Jets seemed like the safest bet I could make last year. whoops
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Sep 4, 2019 20:58
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Play posted:week 1 is the deadliest week imo cause we dont really know poo poo yet It's this. Teams that were previously dogshit are suddenly good and vice-versa: Teams trot out some new player or strategy and their opponent had no tape to study and gets blindsided and loses unexpectedly. Our instincts based on previous years of who should beat whom are out of date. Grittybeard posted:Even wagering with make believe money I feel like I should call you a degenerate here. I mean, yes, definitely, except I know myself well enough I haven't made a real-money wager in like a decade. Even my real world investments are all just passive index funds because I can't be trusted with individual stocks. I'm going to lose all my funbux repeatedly all year like an idiot. But like, it just seemed like an oversight and I figured I should mention it.
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Sep 4, 2019 20:58
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Play posted:week 1 is the deadliest week imo cause we dont really know poo poo yet Absolutely true, but I feel like we were gifted some really safe ones for Week One this year. I can't really see a world where the Bengals, Washington, or the Dolphins win.
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Sep 4, 2019 21:10
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fsif posted:Absolutely true, but I feel like we were gifted some really safe ones for Week One this year. I can't really see a world where the Bengals, Washington, or the Dolphins win. Sounds like a funbuck parlay is in order!
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Sep 4, 2019 21:13
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Play posted:week 1 is the deadliest week imo cause we dont really know poo poo yet Ravens
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Sep 4, 2019 21:13
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Packers +3 seems hard to pass up in Spread eliminator. I'm ready to go like 6-11 in Spread eliminator again.
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Sep 4, 2019 21:16
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Leperflesh posted:Eliminator has carried over our funbux totals from the preseason, e.g. I have 4800. Is that intended? What's up degenerate bros  
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Sep 4, 2019 21:20
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Ehud posted:Ravens Counterpoint: Fitzmagic
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Sep 4, 2019 21:57
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Looking forward to doing Eliminator, Spread Eliminator, Pick 'Em, Spread Pick 'Em, and wagering Fun Bucks until whatever week I forget to put in my picks before the Thursday game and completely fall off again.
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Sep 5, 2019 16:52
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Leperflesh posted:Eliminator has carried over our funbux totals from the preseason, e.g. I have 4800. Is that intended? An excellent question. As a cargo cult web app operator I'm going to say yes, as you managed to pick up some wins on meaningless games. And also the funbuck setup script only runs once a year. Congratulations!
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Sep 6, 2019 00:55
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  e: is nobody running the kicker eliminator this year?
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Sep 6, 2019 14:28
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Yodzilla posted:e: is nobody running the kicker eliminator this year? lol gently caress I totally forgot I ran that thing last year. come play, m'lords
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Sep 6, 2019 17:01
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im in midseason form already
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Sep 6, 2019 18:13
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I didn't know this was a thing that could happen: Vegas thinks both teams will win?
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Sep 6, 2019 21:49
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Leperflesh posted:I didn't know this was a thing that could happen: Pinnacle has both under 2 in decimal odds, so it's not a parse error, and I found this quote:Occasionally, both moneylines will be negative, but they won’t be identical (e.g. -115 and -105). If this is the case, the one farther from zero is the slight favorite. The greater the difference between the two teams’ odds, the greater the difference between the underdog and the favorite. I'm sure some actual degenerate gambler can explain it better.
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Sep 7, 2019 03:34
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Leperflesh posted:I didn't know this was a thing that could happen: Vegas thinks that's the line that will make them the most money.
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Sep 7, 2019 04:37
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Are the Bengals going to disappoint me by failing to disappoint?
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Sep 8, 2019 23:42
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Ehud posted:Ravens This, this is going to be the easiest eliminator until Miami plays someone for the second time.
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Sep 9, 2019 00:14
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I normally think that picking a road divisional game early in the year is silly because you'll get the home field version of it later on. However, the Patriots don't host Miami until week 17 and might not need that game, so picking them in week 2 is more than reasonable. Only other good options I can see are the Ravens and Texans.
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Sep 9, 2019 14:42
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Pretty successful first week (so far), went 4-0 in eliminator-type games, 11-3 in pickem and 10-4 in spread and reverse spread. Also hit a few nice funbucks bets. What do you think guys are the Broncos or the Raiders going to win? I've got the Saints over the Texans for the other game. As far as next week, yeah Ravens, Chargers, Panthers and Patriots are the obvious choices. I've already used the Chiefs to be super safe but it would be disappointing to have to use the Patriots as well this early. That's the two best teams in the league gone
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Sep 9, 2019 16:42
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Play posted:Pretty successful first week (so far), went 4-0 in eliminator-type games, 11-3 in pickem and 10-4 in spread and reverse spread. Also hit a few nice funbucks bets. What do you think guys are the Broncos or the Raiders going to win? I've got the Saints over the Texans for the other game. There's no such thing as too safe, especially in the early weeks of the season. Offenses are figuring things out so I feel there's more volatility. Plus if you save your "safe" picks you get the Dolphins beating the Pats late in the season. 
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Sep 9, 2019 17:27
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I understand wanting to get through early weeks, but something like Chiefs at Jags doesn't seem like a good use of a top team. Same with thinking the Chargers are safe next week. Mediocre teams like the Jags and Lions at home are still super dangerous. Last year both of them beat the Patriots at home.
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Sep 9, 2019 19:43
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yeah the last two years i tried to game by taking a good team so that i could wait for the league to shake out and then coast on easy teams has not worked out well for me
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Sep 9, 2019 22:02
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yeah I guess as long as you get the win, a wins a win. No team is every going to be worth more than one win My dad is 0-1 >  40 bucks here i come
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Sep 9, 2019 22:06
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12-4 in pick'em ain't bad for a lotta choices I made mostly sight unseen on a lot of teams. Should have been 13-3, poo poo rear end Bears 
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Sep 11, 2019 15:32
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I've come to the conclusion that picking against bad teams is a better strategy than picking good teams, but I always get eliminated by the stupid Jets or something so don't listen to me.
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Sep 11, 2019 16:33
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Tiny Tubesteak Tom posted:12-4 in pick'em ain't bad for a lotta choices I made mostly sight unseen on a lot of teams. Should have been 13-3, poo poo rear end Bears Also 12-4, should have been better but it took 3/4ths of a game before Kyler remembered how to play football and... you know what I really have no idea why I picked the Jets.
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Sep 11, 2019 19:54
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Jets were the home team, the Bills turned the ball over like 4 times and the Jets would've won if they didn't gently caress up any of a bunch of different things (or simply not have CJ Mosley get injured), makes total sense to have picked them. On the other hand, I'd like to mention that I picked the Buccaneers. For eliminator, I'm thinking of trying to pick divisional games, after getting Cowboys over Giants in W1. Mostly because I'm picking between Cardinals - Ravens and Texans - Jaguars this week.
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Sep 11, 2019 19:58
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Kalli posted:Jets were the home team, the Bills turned the ball over like 4 times and the Jets would've won if they didn't gently caress up any of a bunch of different things (or simply not have CJ Mosley get injured), makes total sense to have picked them. My dad picked the Bucs in eliminator lol because he "assumed the 49ers were trash". Which, while correct, doesn't really tell the whole story Fenrir posted:Also 12-4, should have been better but it took 3/4ths of a game before Kyler remembered how to play football and... you know what I really have no idea why I picked the Jets. Same, panic changed my pick to the Broncos like a half hour before kickoff and regretted it immediately following kickoff Still, a successful week. I like looking at spread pick em, it's a bit tougher but when you get a good ratio it make me feel like a moneymaker. Somehow landed on 12-4 in reverse spread pickem and 11-5 in spread pickem A very good setup to my inevitable week 6-8 collapse where I somehow get 80% of my choices wrong
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Sep 11, 2019 20:34
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Play posted:My dad picked the Bucs in eliminator lol because he "assumed the 49ers were trash". Which, while correct, doesn't really tell the whole story You think that's bad, not only did I take the Bucs, but I also picked the Browns as well
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Sep 11, 2019 20:48
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Tiny Tubesteak Tom posted:... but I also picked the Browns as well I bought into that dumb hype, too.
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Sep 12, 2019 04:59
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