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Play posted:It seems to have the Raiders favored by five points over the Rams in the season opener... is that really possible?
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Aug 7, 2019 21:03
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Eagles and Seahawks are the biggest favorites this week (over 4-to-1), followed by Saints/Cowboys/Ravens (all around 3-to-1). Interesting to see the strength of the bias against divisional games in SAS, as the Eagles are 4th in picks and the Cowboys are tied for 9th. I'm going with the Eagles because in big pool competitions I err on the side of not going with the most popular selection; that being said the Seahawks are a solid choice. I think the Bengals are the better choice for reverse; both a tough matchup AND probably the toughest they'll have all year.
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Sep 4, 2019 19:05
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WampaLord posted:Division games are traps, particularly in Week 1. For the hell of it I looked at my SAS Eliminator history. I have a 175-33 record overall (84.1%), and 68-14 in divisional games (82.9%); pretty negligible difference. I'm also 13-0 in week 1 
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Sep 4, 2019 20:46
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I normally think that picking a road divisional game early in the year is silly because you'll get the home field version of it later on. However, the Patriots don't host Miami until week 17 and might not need that game, so picking them in week 2 is more than reasonable. Only other good options I can see are the Ravens and Texans.
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Sep 9, 2019 14:42
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I understand wanting to get through early weeks, but something like Chiefs at Jags doesn't seem like a good use of a top team. Same with thinking the Chargers are safe next week. Mediocre teams like the Jags and Lions at home are still super dangerous. Last year both of them beat the Patriots at home.
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Sep 9, 2019 19:43
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Week 3 seems pretty straightforward: Cowboys in regular, Jets in reverse. Maybe 49ers in regular if Ben is out?
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Sep 16, 2019 00:59
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Bucs seem like a good reverse pick for week 4. Startlingly few decent picks for regular outside of the obvious, which could lead to a massive bloodbath if the Dolphins win. But the comedy value would be worth it IMO.
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Sep 23, 2019 07:06
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This was a bloodbath for reverse due to heavy picking for the Bucs and (for some reason) the Raiders. 61% lost this week, worse than regular eliminator's 48%.
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Sep 30, 2019 16:25
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I've managed to back myself into a corner by using the Chargers, Patriots, Cowboys and Ravens already. That leaves me with the Chiefs or Packers. Leaning Chiefs.
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Oct 8, 2019 14:25
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Gerund posted:Finally taking my Seahawks, this is the last game I'd feel confident on picking them for the rest of the year and if I get busted rooting for the squad against a Falcs team that has fully quit, so be it.
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Oct 25, 2019 20:07
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I have spent a lot of time trying to bust the myth that divisional games are inherently risky. Their share of upsets is on par with their share of total games. However, I might start subscribing to the "don't bet on the Bucs" narrative, and add the Jags to that mix. So far this decade I'm right 85% of the time on games that don't involve the Bucs or Jags, and just 65% on games that do. Those are the ultimate "any given Sunday" teams because they can beat or lose to literally anyone.
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Nov 1, 2019 17:53
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The last 16 bloodbath games (25+ people selected): 2019 week 5, KC vs Ind 2019 week 4, LAR vs TB 2018 week 14, Pit at Oak 2018 week 14, Den at SF 2018 week 11, Ari vs Oak 2018 week 10, Phi vs Dal* 2018 week 3, Min vs Buf 2018 week 1, NO vs TB* 2017 week 17, Sea vs Ari* 2017 week 14, Cin vs Chi 2017 week 11, KC at NYG 2017 week 9, Sea vs Was 2017 week 9, Hou vs Ind* 2017 week 6, Atl vs Mia 2017 week 6, Den vs NYG 2017 week 5, Pit vs Jac Starred games are divisional: just 4 of 16, despite being 6 out of every 16 games played. Divisional games are not more likely to be bloodbaths.
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Nov 6, 2019 05:27
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Looking at it another way, over that period there were 20 games where divisional games were potential bloodbaths. The favorite went 16-4. There were 61 non-divisional potential bloodbaths, and the favorite went 46-16. Divisional game "rule" is dumb as hell.
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Nov 6, 2019 15:31
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| # ¿ May 15, 2024 07:47 |
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Divisional thing doesn't matter when the other main pick also goes down. (I picked Indy  )
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Nov 11, 2019 01:52
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