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flatluigi posted:the client says the season doesn't end until 33 hours from now, fwiw Well, I guess I had nothing better to do.
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Aug 30, 2022 10:19
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Eej posted:Pioneer in Arena might have the similar effect to Standard where the ready availability of cards and matchmaking at all times of day will kill in store play. I think the issue with standard was/is more that without accessible competitive play no one is going to play a rotating format in paper Will be interesting to see if we get Standard RCQs for next season Wish Wizards would sort out better tournaments for Arena tho
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Aug 30, 2022 11:00
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Are we getting a new OP after rotation? This thread's getting a little long in the tooth
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Aug 30, 2022 12:56
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Shrecknet posted:Are we getting a new OP after rotation? This thread's getting a little long in the tooth I update it every rotation and whenever something significant happens (most recently earlier this month when we decided the preferred Discord had changed links). I was planning on going through it today or tomorrow, actually, to make sure everything still lines up, so if there are any suggestions or corrections I'm happy to talk about them. If we want to just relaunch a new thread, I think most of the info is right. I'd probably change the main image to something less Ixilan-focused. Might do that anyway. Whatever the thread wants is fine by me. If someone else wants to take over OP duties and write up a new one, I won't fight them for it.
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Aug 30, 2022 13:03
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Haha, googling around for a press kit (a public-facing ZIP of promotional images for stores or websites, basically), there is one on the WPN site for every set, but nothing for Arena, which makes sense. There IS a press kit for Arena from 2019, and this is their screengrab for gameplay: 
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Aug 30, 2022 13:22
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CharlieFoxtrot posted:At least I can definitively see that the idea of me ever being in the top 1200 was an complete mirage considering all the grinders are out in force, and I can just return to the Haze where individual losses no longer anger me and it's back to the general malaise on how long it takes to clock 10 wins You need to stop playing wizard poker. Maybe not forever, but you need to step away from the game for a time. I want you to imagine saying the above to a loved one - do you think they would be supportive of you continuing to invest your time into this hobby when you express this sort of feeling as a result? Stop playing magic, it's not doing anything good for you.
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Aug 30, 2022 13:36
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Huxley posted:I update it every rotation and whenever something significant happens (most recently earlier this month when we decided the preferred Discord had changed links). I think the main reason to relaunch threads is so they don’t seem so intimidating to newcomers. We seem to get a decent amount of new people already but a fresh start might be more welcoming. Especially with a set like Dominaria United that might pique the curiosity of those who would get nostalgic. Drewjitsu posted:Stop playing magic, it's not doing anything good for you. Seconding this, it’s one thing when CF is a quarter of the posts in this thread and they’re having a good time and there’s community workshopping of drafting but when we’ve reached “which of these decks should I use to grind” and there’s 500+ matches played already on those decks it’s probably time for a break. Judgy Fucker fucked around with this message at 13:43 on Aug 30, 2022 |
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Aug 30, 2022 13:41
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he clearly gets off on the self-flagellation. report ignore move on
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Aug 30, 2022 14:05
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Judgy Fucker posted:I think the main reason to relaunch threads is so they don’t seem so intimidating to newcomers. We seem to get a decent amount of new people already but a fresh start might be more welcoming. Especially with a set like Dominaria United that might pique the curiosity of those who would get nostalgic. That's reasonable! I'll revamp the graphics and make a new thread maybe tomorrow morning.
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Aug 30, 2022 14:07
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I don't normally play ranked a lot, but I managed to hit diamond in explorer with abzan greasefang for the first time. I don't grind ranked a lot, I think I played like 30 matches all season, so for me to get to diamond, my winrate would have to be unusually high. I only started playing this deck so I could see what beats it. So far, there doesn't seem to be one archetype that can consistently beat this deck, its more "did they draw ALL of their GY hate? Oh, they only got a couple pieces of GY hate? well then they lose anyway" Weirdly enough, I have only seen 2 matches against mono-u spirits and I'm 1-1 against it in the Bo3 queue. Rakdos mid is the most common deck, followed by azorius control and I have only lost 2 matches vs rakdos and 0 vs control. I hated playing against this deck because my opponents ALWAYS seemed to have it, so I decided to play it and see if that was actually true, and it is. I maintain that Greasefang should probably be temp banned like Winota. Or maybe if more people played this deck, the format would self-regulate and people would run more maindeck GY hate. The most effective hate cards are stuff like Unlicensed Hearse, Rest in Peace, and Scavenging Ooze. Stuff that stays in play, and can repeatedly exile cards in response to me trying to win. Sorcery speed gy hate is worthless. Go Blank doesn't do much if I can just Grisly Salvage immediately after and be able to win. Same with Soul-Guide Lantern. Graveyard Trespasser kinda sucks, but is still possible to play around. But Unlicensed Hearse and Scooze are repeatable gy hate that also serves as a wincon. For hearse and RiP, I can kill it with Witherbloom Command, but I don't run fatal push maindeck so game 1 scooze is trouble unless my opponent taps out and I have a Salvage and Greasefang in hand AND Salvage hits a vehicle. Or Salvage puts a Greasefang in hand, and a vehicle in the GY.
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Aug 30, 2022 14:20
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A Moose posted:I don't normally play ranked a lot, but I managed to hit diamond in explorer with abzan greasefang for the first time. I don't grind ranked a lot, I think I played like 30 matches all season, so for me to get to diamond, my winrate would have to be unusually high. List?
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Aug 30, 2022 14:23
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Is the format going to slow down at all with rotation? The boros aggro deck isn't losing much with only Luminarch Aspirant, Roil Eruption, and Roil Eruption rotating. They are getting Guardian of New Benialia and Lightning Strike as two drops as well as the Elder Dragon War and Serra Paragon as killer four drops. Boros is still going to be a force. Glad to see the best 2 drop in Luminarch rotate.
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Aug 30, 2022 14:32
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Huxley posted:List? https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3897805&userid=156708&perpage=40&pagenumber=16#post525727201 here's my list and some random thoughts about the deck edit: 
A Moose fucked around with this message at 14:55 on Aug 30, 2022 |
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Aug 30, 2022 14:38
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A Moose posted:https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3897805&userid=156708&perpage=40&pagenumber=16#post525727201 you sure?
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Aug 30, 2022 14:42
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Whooping Crabs posted:Is the format going to slow down at all with rotation? The boros aggro deck isn't losing much with only Luminarch Aspirant, Roil Eruption, and Roil Eruption rotating.  ) isn't going to hurt.Luminarch, however, is a backbreaking loss. It just did so much for that deck and will be regarded as one of the best 2-drops ever in a few years. It's a subtle little card but making sure you never fall behind on sizing and force your opponent into unprofitable trades was scary-powerful.
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Aug 30, 2022 14:48
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A Moose posted:https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3897805&userid=156708&perpage=40&pagenumber=16#post525727201 ty!
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Aug 30, 2022 14:50
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precision posted:if you're making mistakes, sure, but in my experience, due to the very dumb way it tries to keep you at a 50% winrate, after i lose a few in a row the game always softballs me some really bad opponent There is no mechanism for this in ranked beyond “as you move up you play against better players” which of course can lower your winrate. This other poo poo you keep saying is 100% a cope delusion
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Aug 30, 2022 15:02
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Time posted:There is no mechanism for this in ranked beyond “as you move up you play against better players” which of course can lower your winrate. This other poo poo you keep saying is 100% a cope delusion i only say it because other people have told me it's true. i'd love for them to be wrong, but i don't think they are
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Aug 30, 2022 15:09
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precision posted:i only say it because other people have told me it's true. i'd love for them to be wrong, but i don't think they are They are
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Aug 30, 2022 15:09
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Cards I'm super not sad to see go: Shambling Ghast/Deadly Dispute. Horrible cards to open against.
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Aug 30, 2022 15:25
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A Moose posted:https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3897805&userid=156708&perpage=40&pagenumber=16#post525727201 I just got to combo T2. Felt good! Against Rally Zombies, of all things, which looked like a fun deck. Same basic idea we're just a lot faster. They Thoughtseized Command over Can't Stay Away (which makes sense if they hope to grind me out or don't want to get 2-for-1ed if they had Hearse in hand, I guess) with Parhelion already in my yard from a Stitcher. But then they offered to trade their Stitcher into mine (which, I guess makes sense if they see a opportunity to rally for 1 for value, like if they have a hand full of them) but my Stitcher flipped Greasy and zoom zoom. Their play felt crazy risky in my mind when I took the trade, but the whole thing makes more sense now that I walk through it. If they had Hearse in hand, they just needed me to not have Greasefang in my top 3 one turn and they get to untap play Hearse after taking my answer and eat me up until I can answer it. Huxley fucked around with this message at 15:29 on Aug 30, 2022 |
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Aug 30, 2022 15:26
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Literally every game with matchmaking develops a rumor that the system "forces you to have a 50% winrate." Seeing most players' winrates hover around 50% is exactly what you would expect in a 2-player game where there's any sort of effort to match players based on skill. If you experience a winrate significantly higher or lower than 50% for any length of time, and aren't some sort of crazy outlier grandmaster, then the matchmaker isn't doing its job. This is especially true in a game like Magic, where a) luck is a big factor, and b) a massive chunk of the population are in a great big peleton in terms of both skill and deck quality. In other words, unless you're way out front of the peleton or far behind it, the overwhelming majority of your games are going to be against people who are only marginally better or worse than you, and that skill/deck-quality difference will be largely drowned out by random chance. Even if you're better than your opponent, your chance of winning is unlikely to be higher than 60%. As such, winrates are not only likely to trend to 50%, they're going to do so very strongly. But humans suck at recognizing the effects of random chance, so we get rumors that the matchmaking system is actively malevolent and ruins your day on purpose. megane fucked around with this message at 15:49 on Aug 30, 2022 |
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Aug 30, 2022 15:44
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Huxley posted:I just got to combo T2. Felt good! goddamn, from "List?" to turn 2 kill in 1 hour, that's loving hilarious. But yeah, that was a totally reasonable line of play from the opponent up until they traded Stitchers, knowing you had Can't Stay Away in your hand. That just seems like playing with fire. They knew you didn't have a greasefang in the top... like 12 cards of your deck, and let you mill 3 more cards. Can't Stay Away does so much work in that deck. I've won games where I knew they mulled to 5 for a removal spell, but played Greasefang into it on turn 3 anyway, just because I know that even if they kill my greasefang on turn 3 AND nuke my GY, on turn 4 I can just mill myself and Can't Stay Away if I hit a greasefang. The deck just gives you so many ways to win. A Moose fucked around with this message at 15:51 on Aug 30, 2022 |
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Aug 30, 2022 15:47
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megane posted:Literally every game with matchmaking develops a rumor that the system "forces you to have a 50% winrate." Seeing most players' winrates hover around 50% is exactly what you would expect in a 2-player game where there's any sort of effort to match players based on skill. If you experience a winrate significantly higher or lower than 50% for any length of time, and aren't some sort of crazy outlier grandmaster, then the matchmaker isn't doing its job. In short: They don't need to make a shadow system to pull you back to .500. It would be redundant with the game itself. A Moose posted:goddamn, from "List?" to turn 2 kill in 1 hour, that's loving hilarious. But yeah, that was a totally reasonable line of play from the opponent up until they traded Stitchers, knowing you had Can't Stay Away in your hand. That just seems like playing with fire. They knew you didn't have a greasefang in the top... like 12 cards of your deck, and let you mill 3 more cards. Yeah, like if they were trying to bait me into the trade because they wanted to Hearse on T3 and Rally for 2 on T4 and they didn't want me to decline the trade the next turn or whatever. But now I've thought about it a lot more than they did, for sure, and they probably just went, "whatever let 'er rip!" and got bit.
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Aug 30, 2022 15:54
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Actually I'm really smart and everybody else is a big doodoo head who only plays netdecks so my winrate deserves to be nothing less than 75%
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Aug 30, 2022 16:18
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Pocky In My Pocket posted:No invulnerable so nowhere near as bad. No slyclave means nobody killing the skyclave early and not even getting the token back for their trouble which is always good for a laugh so I'm going to say it leaving is sad
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Aug 30, 2022 16:19
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Simply Simon posted:Actually I'm really smart and everybody else is a big doodoo head who only plays netdecks so my winrate deserves to be nothing less than 75% 100% imo
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Aug 30, 2022 16:38
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Huxley posted:In short: They don't need to make a shadow system to pull you back to .500. It would be redundant with the game itself. I thought there was someone who did a pretty broad scale test at one poitn and figured out that the matchmaking is pretty much stock 'match based on nearest available Elo rating at current rank' or somethign broadly similar? There doesn't ahve to be a nefarious shadow system for the matchmaker to be nonrandom, and straight Elo rank-based matchmaking will tend one's winrate towards 50% anyway, the more you win the higher ranked your opponents become until you wind up matched against people of broadly equal skill.
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Aug 30, 2022 16:44
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hey Maro? yeah it's me. the sleuths in the sa mtga thread have gotten wise to the grift, I think we need to retire the "you lose" button for a bit to avoid suspicion. just a heads up e: didn't mean to type that here, please disregard
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Aug 30, 2022 16:51
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Yeah maybe grinding constructed ranked isn't helpful to me, it seems the sentiment is widespread https://twitter.com/h0lydiva/status/1564562414544338944 Anyway I just bought the play pack and started a new draft spreadsheet, I'm ready Judgy Fucker posted:there’s 500+ matches played already on those decks it’s probably time for a break. do people... not play this number of matches in a season? CharlieFoxtrot fucked around with this message at 17:37 on Aug 30, 2022 |
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Aug 30, 2022 17:13
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Arena event is old short standard. The sets that rotate out, all access, with alchemy modifications. Kinda strange. Anyways, you can get netdecks from the usual sources but, they chickened out. They have no izzet dragons, which was the strongest deck in the format towards the end. And they don't have the deck that defined the format, mono-w prison. With faceless heavens and book of exalted deeds. Emberrassingly dumb in a format without land destruction.
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Aug 30, 2022 17:24
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thespaceinvader posted:I thought there was someone who did a pretty broad scale test at one poitn and figured out that the matchmaking is pretty much stock 'match based on nearest available Elo rating at current rank' or somethign broadly similar? The only unintuitive wrinkle is that (as I understand it) the MMR/ELO system is separate from your visible "ranking". This means that, depending on your specific pattern of wins and losses (and how those interact with pips and rating decay and what not), you may be seeing harder/easier matches at a specific rank than someone else. I think this also leads to degenerate behavior where people try to tank their hidden MMR (while avoiding "rank" decay) in order to make their climb easier. So yeah, if you want to play good fair games, it's fine. Welcome to 50%. But if your goal is instead about moving up the rank ladder (hint: don't make this your goal) then I think there may be a layer (however thin) of confusion/nonsense to gripe about.
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Aug 30, 2022 17:24
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CharlieFoxtrot posted:do people... not play this number of matches in a season? Do you get those end-of-season emails from WotC that show things like your favorite color, favorite draft cards, etc.? It should show you how many games/matches you play and what percentile that puts you as far as Arena players go. I'm usually in the 95th percentile of games/matches played and I play nowhere near the Which I mean, if you're having fun the entire time, that's awesome! But it sure seems like you're not anymore. So, in sum--no, most people do not play as much as you.
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Aug 30, 2022 17:45
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Simply Simon posted:Actually I'm really smart and everybody else is a big doodoo head who only plays netdecks so my winrate deserves to be nothing less than 75% put this in the next OP
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Aug 30, 2022 18:03
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megane posted:Literally every game with matchmaking develops a rumor that the system "forces you to have a 50% winrate." Seeing most players' winrates hover around 50% is exactly what you would expect in a 2-player game where there's any sort of effort to match players based on skill. If you experience a winrate significantly higher or lower than 50% for any length of time, and aren't some sort of crazy outlier grandmaster, then the matchmaker isn't doing its job. You have made me very concerned that I'm due for a regression to the mean. 
Legit Businessman fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Aug 30, 2022 |
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Aug 30, 2022 18:05
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CharlieFoxtrot posted:Yeah maybe grinding constructed ranked isn't helpful to me, it seems the sentiment is widespread Ladder play encourages massive grinding and burnout. It’s the reason people were happy to see last chance qualifier weekends and play in points on arena since it gives people ways to qualify for stakes without having to go extremely hard on ladder. Especially keeping that top 1200 the last few days of the month
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Aug 30, 2022 18:08
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I enjoy grinding constructed but they really biffed things for me with how they changed events. They’re way too expensive now to grind for fun since so much of the payout is tied up in packs I don’t want. It used to be a fun queue where a lot of people would play jank and you could score a couple rares every now and then.
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Aug 30, 2022 18:22
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yeesh, just finished the mastery pass today. that was close e: reddit tells me it's the last day to use this code for anyone who hasnt 
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Aug 30, 2022 18:44
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10-5ed my dailies today, now that's above chernobyl gif performance. Knowing I no longer have a thing to chase and I should accept I'll never get anything competitive in this game, I think I have found some measure of serenityQuotey posted:yeesh, just finished the mastery pass today. that was close I'm level 78 on the pass... if I am playing way more games than people, are people just not finishing their passes
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Aug 30, 2022 18:53
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Aside from getting your 15 wins per week playing 9001 matches a season isnt going to get you much more in the way of mastery experience
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