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Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

ApplesandOranges posted:

So everyone on the cast seems pretty likable other than Ronnie (who's out) and maybe Jason (too weaselly) and Noura (she's got some crazy eyes). Aaron could have douchebag potential, but it's early days.

Don't know if I have any early favourites yet. I like a lot of the women.

Noura's gonna be one of those people who's either highly entertaining or highly annoying (or will oscillate between the two).

The cast does seem promising tho.

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Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
This episode had shades of One World when the 4 bros thought they ran the tribe and the other 6 guys were like "uhhhhhh".

As annoying as somebody like Noura is, thinking your minority alliance is in control and acting accordingly cocky and complacent is a cardinal sin in this game. Molly was smooth as hell and if you don't feel comfortable about being in an alliance with somebody like that going forward, booting them early is fair play.

Also, I didn't think I'd find myself enjoying Rob and Sandra so much as meta Survivor narrators but here we are.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
I actually was a little surprised by Kellee's shocked reaction. Wasn't she somebody who knew next to nothing about the show when she was recruited?

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
How do you not play your idol there?

How??

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

STAC Goat posted:

I think the combination of Rob and Sandra puffing him up and how helpless and lost Karishma seemed just made him overconfident about what a good game he was playing.

Which is crazy since he was one of the names being thrown out there for the first eviction less than a week earlier. But I guess that vote flip/blindside and the guys coming to him kind of desperate just contributed to his overconfidence.

Yeah.

It’s just wild. Fresh back from your trip to Suspicion Island with an idol that has a half life of two tribal councils, but you don’t use it. Really needs to be emphasized as one of the worst moves in recent Survivor history. What (non-)moves have been worse over the past few seasons? I’m honestly drawing a blank.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

IcePhoenix posted:

Full life of two, half life was one. I can't imagine not busting it out first chance when you might not even get the opportunity again, unless you were going to bluff with it down the line (which Vince never indicated was a plan in his exit interview that I saw)

Ha, I meant to say "shelf life".

Lone Goat posted:

Like have you already forgotten how everyone tripped over themselves to let whatshisface win last season?

I'm thinking more about single, atomized moves/non-moves, and I'm not sure what exactly you'd be referring to in that regard.

Besides, what I remember more about last season was Chris coming back basically in the ideal situation for his game: everybody tripping over themselves to prevent Devens from winning, and Devens having no choice but to work with Chris.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
I don't know what part of having to win immunity at F4 or otherwise win a fire-making challenge screams "moonwalk" but okay.

Also, Chris' decision to give up immunity and take on Devens in fire-making was unprecedented (as well as baller as gently caress). The chances of a Rick vs. Chris fire-making scenario were quite low, and I think that must've gone into Rick's F5 calculus.

And that's all not to mention that Lauren was arguably a bigger threat than Chris when she got voted out.

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 10:33 on Oct 12, 2019

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
Lairo has been a mess since the get-go and this was a pretty appropriate culmination of their shittiness.

It really does seem like they ended up with a fairly disproportionate number of the game's lightweight players. Elizabeth and Missy are the only two Lairo who seem like they have potential (and even they are falling into the overplaying trap). Maybe Elaine as well but she came out of this episode looking pretty clueless. On the other hand, I could see any of the Vokai aside from Noura going far.

Popero posted:

I'd love to know why Elizabeth/Elaine went along with Chelsea given their reactions to the possibility of Dean. Seemed so weird.

I am tempted to chalk it up to Missy and Aaron being the dominant personalities on the tribe, and people allowing them to dictate the vote accordingly once they hit the Karishma/Dean conundrum.

The thing that confuses me the most is why Elizabeth and Elaine were so bullish about getting rid of Dean in the first place. When's the last time tribes -didn't- swap after four boots?

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 16:58 on Oct 17, 2019

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

STAC Goat posted:

I don't think that's really the issue here, though. Its not that people are surprised by how the vote went, its that Missy's strategy went from "vote out Brett to get back my sorority sister" to "vote out my sorority sister" all because for some reason she decided the easy vote she betrayed last vote was a valuable goat.

Which might just be Missy's thing. Maybe the rest of the tribe just wanted to break up the showmance and Missy distracted us trying to badly puppet master things.

His name might as well be "Brett" tbh

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

STAC Goat posted:

I don't know no one's name this season except Rob and Sandra

Sandra account spotted

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
You can add Caleb from Kaoh Rong to that list as well, similar circumstances to Russell Swan. I don't know about the latter but Caleb was def somebody Jeff liked, as were Hali and Wentworth, so I think that plays a large role in the process.

In any case, Molly seems like the more interesting player to bring back in terms of thus far S39 early boots. Maybe it was just the edit, but Chelsea didn't come across as particularly compelling.

And speaking of interesting players, I'm actually coming around on Jamaal. He was a prick early on (still sort of is) but he at least has some self-awareness, and his charisma is kind of off the charts. I don't know how that will translate to in-game success though. It's going to be really hard for him to fly under the radar.

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 07:06 on Oct 18, 2019

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
Especially after Missy went out of her way to give Karishma a little "not so fast, you aren't off the hook yet" talking-to at TC. What even the hell was that? I guess just catering to her tribemates (Tom, namely) who wanted her punished somehow?

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
Was it really necessary/worth further ostracizing a sensitive ally-by-default?

The whole practice of treating Karishma like a lame duck alliance member is foolish no matter how you spin it. Bring her on board or don’t, don’t half-measure it.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
I've actually been appreciating the job the editors have been doing this season. It's markedly less obvious who's getting voted out, although they still like to drop their little hints, like Tom's comment about them being able to get Karishma out at any point. That was classic Survivor "throw the foreboding spotlight on the act of hubris". Plus, there's only so much sleight of hand they can do to distract from the clear fact that it's gonna be one of those three players going home.

At least the rationale for this vote was much stronger than that of the Chelsea vote: keep some strength (Dean) and the person with no ties to the other side (Karishma) while getting rid of the potentially most Lairo-strong player (Tom). It also makes Dean more of a free agent. It made sense. It does still feel a bit like they're maybe being overly galaxy brain about keeping Karishma around (old Vokai still has the clear advantage either way) but it was a fair enough move.

In any case, it's hard to ignore the uncomfortable bottleneck effect for all involved (both players and audience) when a player like Karishma is awkwardly dragged through the game. I'm curious to see if she can turn things around, but also wouldn't be mad if they cut her loose so the overall narrative can move on from "is she finally getting voted out this time?!" Honestly, I don't really find her all that annoying. It's kind of hilarious that she put her marriage on blast on public television (with sentimental music in the background).

Anyway, I'm pretty satisfied with the players this season. Old Vokai is -very- strong, especially Kellee, Jamaal and Jason. Early days of course, but their edits are quite rosy so far. Lairo just seems like it's gonna keep eating itself until Vokai eventually splinters.

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 08:45 on Oct 24, 2019

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

Nottherealaborn posted:

Karishma is still the drag on her team in challenges, and we have nothing to indicate that will change. And she’s still on the outs socially, except that the rest of her OG tribe are gonna get voted out first since she’s a non-threat. Sounds like still goat to me.

I think she’s less mopey because she realizes she’s not gonna get voted out for awhile.

Maybe also cuz she's no longer on a tribe full of people who treat her with pure disrespect?

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

The Bloop posted:

from an interview with Jason about getting voted out:


There was a lot of whispering going on at Tribal Council after Elaine revealed she was blocking your vote. At one point. Tommy and Dan came over and were whispering to you even though you had no vote to cast. What were they saying?
Well, the actual plan that we had in place was a very complicated plan before we went to Tribal Council. So when the swap happened, Missy and Aaron immediately wanted to flip and threw Elaine’s name out there and threw Elaine under the bus. So she was our first target. And then ultimately was our last target. But in between, our targets were actually Missy and Aaron. So going into the Tribal Council, the plan was to put four of the old Vokai votes on Aaron hoping that Aaron or Missy would flip, and send Aaron home.

So what happened was when Elaine pulled out the block a vote, it signaled to us that, “Okay, they have something, we’re gonna need four true votes. Jason doesn’t have a vote.” So our best plan at that point was to basically gather ourselves, put the votes on Elaine, and then hope Aaron actually was flipping on Elaine. So what they said to me is, “It’s going to be Elaine, it’s going to be Elaine, it’s going to be a Elaine.” And because before that it was not going to be Elaine walking into the Tribal Council and for the days leading up to the Tribal Council either.

Huh. I mean, there's some logic to it: knock out an untrustworthy Lairo in a way that maximizes their in-group dissent AND protects against the very real possibility that Elaine has a new idol. It actually has some merit on paper, but yeah if Vokai's mid-TC incoherent scramble caused Aaron to change his vote, then their bold move obviously backfired.

I think at this point in Survivor lore, where players are aware of the broad range of possible advantages that might come from an Island of the Idols/Ghost Island/Exile Island etc. type of place, the Vokai should've had a contingency plan in place to mitigate the effects of what was really a fairly unsurprising turn of events. Like it would've been an easy fix: "if an advantage shifts the vote away from a tie, we go back to plan B and not make a fuss about it during TC".

(Edited to change language to something more general)

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 14:39 on Nov 1, 2019

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
Ok fair enough yeah, edited my post accordingly. Nonetheless, extra vote, vote block, vote steal...it’s the same basic threat: less votes for us, more votes for them. They’re usually not reinventing the wheel with this stuff. The point is that a few lines of dialogue could’ve helped inform everybody of what to do in this not entirely surprising situation so that they didn’t have to panic at TC in ways that might have affected the vote.

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 06:17 on Nov 3, 2019

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

Lone Goat posted:

also it's island of the idols not island of the vote blocks!!!!!!!!

Even an idol is something that could've been played/flaunted with a similar effect

It's just hard to defend the lack of adaptability/preparedness in the era of superfans who should probably know better than to not plan for potential outcomes beyond their highly fragile plan coming to fruition and going to rocks

Their lack of battle-testedness likely played a role, as others have alluded to

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 04:58 on Nov 2, 2019

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

Propaganda Machine posted:

Yeah, I'm kind of floored by how well they're pulling this twist off, especially considering the show's shoddy track record. The busts are incredibly goofy, but Rob and Sandra are just good tv.

They're innocuous and entertaining. It's a twist that doesn't impact the game in an obnoxious way like EoE. It's kind of ideal, imo.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
It was also shown that the Vokai did a pretty good job of pulling the wool over Dean's eyes, so it was fair enough to guess he'd vote Noura. Having said that, if you're not going to play the idol on yourself in that situation, I'm not sure why you wouldn't just save it for another time. One guess is that TC exposed Noura as a shaky alliance member to Jamal, and he wanted to rectify that. I'm also wondering if getting called out for the womens' alliance comments threw him off kilter and caused him to act impulsively.

I'm still going back and forth on Kellee's move(s). I think I can more or less get behind the overall plan. Dean's a good ally for her to have going forward: he's a free agent, not really a strategic-seeming player, serves as a shield, and plus they've got that mutual friend, which like Ice Phoenix mentioned is kind of a big deal. At the same time, Jamal and Jack are a formidable duo, and I agree with her comment that Jamal probably doesn't want to go to the end with her. Plus, I think tribal lines are mostly done and dusted. In a Dean-boot scenario, OG Vokai (+ Karishma) vs OG Lairo might hold up for one vote, long enough to get rid of a universal threat like Elaine, but after that it's 9 vs 3 and I don't think it's safe to bet on a straight Pagonging considering the recent Survivor propensity for trigger happy big moves, voting blocks, etc.

I have more of an issue with the Noura contingency plan. I get that it potentially throws shade on other players and protects against Dean putting a vote on Kellee, but if you think the latter is even a remote possibility, don't you just scrap the plan altogether? I think Kellee probably hedged a little too much. If you're going to put your faith in Dean, don't half-rear end it - let the plan unfold without involving Noura and setting yourself up for significant risk. I don't consider getting out Jack over Dean an overplay, but the contingency plan seems to have been one.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

Bigass Moth posted:

I am sick of the social justice lectures this season. Can we just play the game and show the scheming?

The irony here is that there's a decent chance Kellee's comments were partially strategic. More time spent discussing social issues during tribal = less opportunity for herself, Dean or Noura (if she was indeed keyed in to a significant degree) to accidentally let part of the plan slip.

Having said that, the way her and Jamal handled that discussion was nothing short of eloquent. I didn't find it to be a drag on the show in the slightest, nor were Jamal's prior confessionals/race-related conversations with Jack.

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 09:19 on Nov 9, 2019

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
That was really gross. gently caress Dan.

I hope to see Kellee and Jamal on the show again. Two legit people, and of course big ups to Janet.

The Worlds Apart comps are spot on, and it’s interesting cuz as somebody mentioned we were already getting those vibes from the early Karishma treatment (and sadly/ironically, she effectively threw her hat in with the shithead camp with that trite comment about how Janet was merely perceiving her truth or whatever). I would find it hard to believe that it was just a coincidence that the Missy/Elizabeth/Aaron trio was at the center of each issue.

Root-worthy people beyond Janet from this point forward...eh, Elaine? loving Noura? Jesus, this season...

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
Yeah Elizabeth’s “apology” is bullshit. “Sorry you felt this way”. Classic non-apology apology.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
Yeah honestly production just wanted to have their cake and eat it too in a grossly transparent way. They went out of their way to demonstrate both Dan's repeated creepy acts (in order to present a coherent, consumable story) -and- their own attempts to break the fourth wall and manage the situation (in order to get themselves off the hook), but in presenting the former so effectively, they proved how disproportionately weak of a response the latter was.

I am still quite grossed out by what Missy and Elizabeth did, don't get me wrong, but I'm more of the mind now that production (in addition to scumbag Dan, obviously) helped create some incredibly difficult conditions in the first place by virtue of taking such a soft stance. At the very LEAST (I wish they had axed him far earlier, personally), they should have given an individual, unequivocal warning to Dan, and Dan alone, instead of some vague, general warning to the entire tribe, which did a few things: 1) gave the resident island sociopath more reason to believe his own delusions that he wasn't doing anything wrong, and 2) conveyed the message that the situation was being handled (it really wasn't) while subtly shifting responsibility away from production and toward the cast, who were then put in awkward, self-policing watchdog positions (and we saw how that worked out via Janet). I can partially see the logic of a group warning in addition to a harsh individual warning for Dan, but if people like Tommy (if they are to be believed) didn't grasp the seriousness of the problem, then clearly it was a worthless warning.

Jeff can go on and on about how Survivor is a microcosm for daily life and how letting these things play out in front of the camera can lead to cathartic, educational moments or whatever, but production's way of dealing with the situation 100% fueled the problem.

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 08:03 on Nov 16, 2019

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
Ah, I didn’t see/hear that they gave him a direct warning. Thought everyone got the same boilerplate group warning.

I wonder if the producers decided to let the chips fall where they may once Kellee and Dan were split up via tribeswap, hoping that one of the two might get voted out and the situation would resolve itself? If so, just such a negligent gamble.

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 14:21 on Nov 16, 2019

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
I was fairly tempted to not keep watching the show after last week but here we are. At least Elaine is cool again, and good riddance to Aaron/Missy.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
Elaine is still cool and she'd be my choice to win.

I agree that Karishma is getting an awkwardly rosy edit. I've defended her in the past (in terms of the unfair treatment she was getting from Missy etc) but I can definitely see how she'd be a hard person to deal with at camp. There's really not much of an argument to be made for her gameplay-wise, but she did play her idol correctly, which people have been failing to do. A Karishma win would at least be an appropriate end to this trainwreck of a season.

Also, what's up with Dean ragging on people for being goats? It's not obvious to me that he has a significantly better chance of winning than Karishma.

I'll take a crack at the current power rankings:

Elaine
Lauren
Tommy
Janet
Dean
Karishma
Noura
Dan

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
lmao

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

Fast Luck posted:

As a viewer Dean's move was infuriating but just trying to figure out what he was thinking, here's what I can come up with: Noura was already infuriating to deal with, but this wasn't the only vote they'd need to work with her. Even if they succeed here, Noura still has swing position power and this vote was a freebie by comparison since it was a blindside. Afterward the blindsided players get the chance to go, "Noura, whaat, we love you, we didn't take you to see your sister because we know you're so strong! We had to take Lauren and Dan because it was their husband and kid! Are you really going to work with someone lazy like Karishma?"

Instead, after burning Noura and the rest, Karishma goes home, and now at 7 the majority can target the traitor Noura, which gets Dean to 6, at which point he thinks he has a legacy advantage, getting him to 5 and one away from firemaking. Or, instead of targeting Noura, he goes to Tommy who is super grateful to him now, and says dude you weren't even the first option on that vote, the intended target was Lauren, everyone says she's the mastermind and you just follow her around, and if that works now Dean's gotten himself into the top 4 of that alliance (and firemaking).

I'm inclined to agree. My most charitable guess is Dean realized that he couldn't possibly trust Noura to help pull off such a crucial move, but that it would nonetheless be in his best interest to keep her around as a distraction, and blowing up their plan pre-TC might have led to her going home. Meanwhile, Elaine flushes her idol, and the big 4 all get exposed for being naive idiots who thought their obvious AF alliance could orchestrate an easy-peasy vote-split (assuming that was indeed still the plan, judging by their reactions to Dean's info at TC) after the loved-ones challenge. So yeah, even though I don't like the guy very much, it's possible he might have sloppily connived his way into better position provided A) he doesn't attempt to play the fake legacy advantage like a dum-dum, and B) he can be the one to take responsibility for driving a wedge between Lauren and Tommy, like you said (and I do think they're going to end up voting against each other at some point).

Granted, that might all be a huge stretch and it could easily turn out that it was just impulsive gameplay and he's the easy boot next week, but I think there's still a greater chance they'll go for Elaine or Noura (or perhaps Lauren/Tommy) instead.

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 19:01 on Dec 5, 2019

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

freeman posted:

The only person more disappointed than Dean that they skipped from 7 to 5 is Jamal.

It's so loving appropriate that Dean's game benefits most from this whole debacle.

What a drat mess. Please nobody else post anything Varner-related, would be super nice to never have to see his face or words ever again.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
I'm so glad this gross season is over and done with.

Still, Tommy's definitely a fair enough winner. He did a good job of making himself indispensable to everybody's plans. Basically struck that Adam Klein/Nick Wilson balance of being involved without sticking out too much. He of course benefitted from being mixed in with a bunch of people who stuck out for different reasons. When the dust is settled, I think he'll be thought of as a mid-tier winner.

It's always nice to see a pair of decent players like Tommy/Lauren stick it out for so long (even though Lauren loving sucks with her regular entitled emotional breakdowns over the game not going her way). Shades of Wendell/Dom and Nick/Davey. I think that's becoming a fairly bankable strategy, regardless of the fact that you're helping bring another threat far into the game, but it might usually be a risk worth taking.

Just still feel so bad for Kellee. Having to be put on the spot at the end like that...nobody wants or deserves that, but she handled it admirably. Good of Jeff to coax out the totally deserved anti-CBS/Survivor stuff, but he was also slipping into some of the "non-apology apology" rhetoric with that "your truth" talk. Like no, getting groped repeatedly by a loving creep who also groped multiple others is not "her" truth. It is "the" truth. I hope to not have to hear that phrase again.

Despite the ickiness of this season, I'm still looking forward to S40, though if the theme were anything less interesting, it would probably be easier to consider giving next season a miss.

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
There are no strategies that are 100% foolproof. Luck is always going to be a factor, and some players are just going to be threats regardless. Pairing yourself with another good player you can trust (at least for the first 75% of the game) and work through ideas with to help set both of you up for success...it helps mitigate that reality. Far preferable to being singular threats like Elaine and, say, Kelly Wentworth from second chances who are out on a limb by themselves for most of the game.

Good fortune could have easily swung the other players' ways. Lauren was likely a fire-making challenge away from a win. Wendell won by one vote. Nick could've been the target instead of Davey. Denise and Malcolm, Amber and Rob, JT and Stephen, etc. Pool your skillset with another player's for as long as you can, and then either get the other player out at the last minute or rely on yourself to pitch your game over theirs at FTC.

It's certainly better than being the consummate free agent, which worked for like...who, Sandra? That's a tough road where you'll need to go on an immunity run (Holloway, Fabio) or get crazy idol luck (Tony, Ben) if you want to win.

Vernacular fucked around with this message at 07:23 on Dec 21, 2019

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Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004

Midnightghoul posted:

When the first player voted out approaches EoE beach, they see a giant wooden bust of Chris, and then he walks out of the jungle to impart EoE wisdom and challenges

lol

Khanstant posted:

This doesn't make sense because nobody even knows what Chris looks like

that's the beauty of the idea

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