FAUXTON posted:

what's the gorka ratio on this pod

Waroduce posted:

Throwing War on the Rocks and Arms Control wonk podcasts into this recommendation

aphid_licker posted:

How the gently caress is Sadr still alive

Nostalgia4Butts posted:

Handsome Ralph posted:

https://twitter.com/MichaelStahlke/status/1179826417476857856

UP THE BUM NO BABY posted:

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1179916988560400385?s=19

Doc Hawkins posted:

how could he bring this shame on the one-three

but they weren't the only victims!


you keep my escort agency's name out of your mouth!

quote:

ISIS'S SECOND COMEBACK: ASSESSING THE NEXT ISIS INSURGENCY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 
The Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) is not defeated despite the loss of the territory it claimed as its so-called ‘Caliphate’ in Iraq and Syria. It is stronger today than its predecessor Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) was in 2011, when the U.S. withdrew from Iraq. AQI had around 700-1000 fighters then.  ISIS had as many as 30,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria in August 2018 according to a Defense Intelligence Agency estimate. ISIS built from the small remnant left in 2011 an army large enough to recapture Fallujah, Mosul, and other cities in Iraq and dominate much of eastern Syria in only three years.  It will recover much faster and to a much more dangerous level from the far larger force it still has today.

The slow-motion reduction of ISIS’s territory and strength initiated by President Obama and continued by President Trump gave the group plenty of time to plan and prepare for the next phase of the war.  It had a plan to recover ready before the “caliphate” fell and has been executing it during the anti-ISIS campaign conducted by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the U.S.-Led Anti-ISIS Coalition. ISIS deliberately withdrew and relocated many of its fighters and their families from Mosul, Raqqa, and other important cities into new and old support zones in Iraq and Syria. ISIS’s forces are now dispersed across both countries and are waging a capable insurgency. ISIS retained a global finance network that funded its transition back to an insurgency and managed to preserve sufficient weapons and other supplies in tunnel systems and other support zones in order to equip its regenerated insurgent force.

ISIS began reconstituting key capabilities in late 2018 that will enable it to wage an even more aggressive insurgency in coming months. ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi asserted greater operational control over his forces in Iraq and Syria in June 2018 and is reconstituting command-and-control structures. ISIS is also reconstituting its capability to detonate waves of Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDs) across Iraq and Syria - the signature of its early campaigns leading up to the conquest of Fallujah and Mosul in 2014. It has already detonated VBIEDs in liberated cities including Mosul and Raqqa. ISIS also resumed standardized media releases in July 2018, indicating that it has rebuilt key media capabilities.

ISIS’s insurgency will grow because areas it has lost in Iraq and Syria are still neither stable nor secure. In Iraq, ISIS has systematically eliminated village leaders and civilians who cooperated with anti-ISIS forces. Its goal is to weaken resistance and to fuel the population’s distrust of the Government of Iraq. It has re-imposed taxes on local populations in its historical support zones, displacing civilians and de facto controlling small pockets of terrain in Iraq. In Syria, ISIS is waging a three-front insurgency against the U.S.-backed SDF, the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Al Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Its campaign degrades governance structures and halts reconstruction efforts, contributing to the perpetuation of state failure and violence in the Syrian Civil War.

ISIS will seek to reestablish territorial control in Iraq and in Syria. It will likely succeed if the U.S. withdraws. American support on the ground in Syria coheres disparate SDF elements that would almost certainly fracture if the U.S. leaves. The U.S. presence in Eastern Syria enables vital intelligence and air operations that could not be replaced if America withdrew. It also deters Turkey from invading northeastern Syria, which would at minimum cause the SDF to pull forces away from the Middle Euphrates River Valley to defend against Turkey in the north, creating even more space in which ISIS could re-emerge. A strong and capable SDF in eastern Syria is also necessary to prevent ISIS from using Syria as a base to fuel its campaign in Iraq. 

ISIS’s next breakout success could be even more devastating than its 2014 campaign. Its external provinces outside Iraq and Syria are contributing resources to its insurgency in those countries while giving the organization renewed global momentum. ISIS declared the start of a new global campaign called the ‘Battle of Attrition’ on May 31, 2019. Its propaganda instructed its forces to seize terrain temporarily as a way to attrite their opponents. ISIS’s ability to campaign simultaneously abroad and in Iraq and Syria gives it new opportunities. Its successful reconstitution of a physical caliphate in Iraq and Syria would produce new waves of ISIS attacks in Europe and dangerously legitimize ISIS’s narrative of inevitable long-term victory. 

The U.S. is repeating a critical mistake by deprioritizing this effort at a pivotal moment when our gains are at their most fragile. The U.S. must take immediate steps to dampen ISIS’s resurgence in Iraq and Syria, including halting and reversing America’s ongoing withdrawal from Syria. More American support to the SDF will be necessary. American partners and allies should contribute, but it must recognize that it is the only country with both the ability and moral clarity to lead this effort. The U.S. should also prioritize and expand humanitarian aid operations to help dampen the appeal of ISIS, especially among the large traumatized underage population living in displacement camps across the Middle East. These actions can help reduce the rate and scale of ISIS’s regrowth and provide the U.S. the time required to develop a more robust strategy truly to defeat ISIS and establish the conditions that will prevent another reconstitution.

Turkey will oppose increased American support to the SDF. The U.S. should focus its efforts on increasing the strength and capability of Arab SDF elements, which do not threaten Turkey as much as the Kurdish elements. Supporting these Arab groups will enable the U.S. to better combat ISIS’s insurgency, which is strongest in Arab areas, and will also decrease the SDF’s overall reliance on the Kurdish forces that Turkey opposes. The U.S. should condition increased support to the SDF on reforms of its behavior to ensure that it represents both Arabs and Kurds regardless of whether or not they support the political ideology of the SDF. These steps alone will not appease Turkey but they can reduce the likelihood that continued American efforts to find a durable resolution to the problem of ISIS in Iraq and Syria lead to increased tensions and the risk of conflict.

SpaceSDoorGunner posted:

Oh gently caress this is gonna be Armenia 2.0 the Turkish government has pushed the narrative that the YPG are terrorists for years and we just handed them control over all of Rojava. Like no poo poo I think this will end in six figures of dead civilians if the Erdogan regime has it’s way.

quote:

Trump allies pressed Ukraine over gas firm
Last spring, a circle of American businessmen and Republican donors touted connections to Giuliani and President Donald Trump while trying to install new management at the top of Ukraine’s massive state gas company.

Their plan hit a snag after Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko lost his reelection bid to Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

This shows how those with ties to Trump and his administration were pursuing business deals in Ukraine that went far beyond advancing the president’s personal political interests.

As Rudy Giuliani was pushing Ukrainian officials last spring to investigate one of Donald Trump’s main political rivals, a group of individuals with ties to the president and his personal lawyer were also active in the former Soviet republic.

Their aims were profit, not politics. This circle of businessmen and Republican donors touted connections to Giuliani and Trump while trying to install new management at the top of Ukraine’s massive state gas company. Their plan was to then steer lucrative contracts to companies controlled by Trump allies, according to two people with knowledge of their plans.

Their plan hit a snag after Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko lost his reelection bid to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, whose conversation with Trump about former Vice President Joe Biden is now at the center of the House impeachment inquiry of Trump.

But the effort to install a friendlier management team at the helm of the gas company, Naftogaz, would soon be taken up with Ukraine’s new president by U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry, whose slate of candidates included a fellow Texan who is one of Perry’s past political donors.

It’s unclear if Perry’s attempts to replace board members at Naftogaz were coordinated with the Giuliani allies pushing for a similar outcome, and no one has alleged that there is criminal activity in any of these efforts. And it’s unclear what role, if any, Giuliani had in helping his clients push to get gas sales agreements with the state-owned company.

But the affair shows how those with ties to Trump and his administration were pursuing business deals in Ukraine that went far beyond advancing the president’s personal political interests. It also raises questions about whether Trump allies were mixing business and politics just as Republicans were calling for a probe of Biden and his son Hunter, who served five years on the board of another Ukrainian energy company, Burisma.

On Friday, according to the news site Axios, Trump told a group of Republican lawmakers that it had been Perry who had prompted the phone call in which Trump asked Zelenskiy for a “favor” regarding Biden. Axios cited a source saying Trump said Perry had asked Trump to make the call to discuss “something about an LNG (liquefied natural gas) plant.”

While it’s unclear whether Trump’s remark Friday referred specifically to the behind-the-scenes maneuvers this spring involving the multi-billion-dollar state gas company, The Associated Press has interviewed four people with direct knowledge of the attempts to influence Naftogaz, and their accounts show Perry playing a key role in the effort. Three of the four spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation. The fourth is an American businessman with close ties to the Ukrainian energy sector.

Hexyflexy posted:

Reagan was terrifying, when I was a kid in the UK in the 80s, we all genuinely thought he was going to blow up the planet. You know that Reagan halloween mask, the one everyone had, if I wore it now I'd probably give someone a heart attack from the PTSD from back then.

Flying_Crab posted:

https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1182053870744276993?s=20

Burt posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oNv0fjY4qjQ

colachute posted:

You should go ahead and accept the reality that the US doesn’t either.

Godholio posted:

jesus gently caress, you guys

alternately

jesus, gently caress you guys

quote:

As the Turkish invasion into northern Syria proceeds, the region has seemingly descended into violent chaos, with videos emerging of Turkish proxies slaughtering US allies.

In addition, about 700 relatives of ISIS fighters fled a Kurdish-run detention camp after a Turkish airstrike hit nearby, prompting 13,000 people, mostly displaced refugees, to flee.

The humanitarian aid group Save the Children confirmed to The New York Times that all foreign nationals, including the women and children who are relatives of ISIS fighters and were being held in a secure facility, had left the camp.

It is unclear whether the women and children escaped entirely or were apprehended by coalition forces who brought them to a central facility. Sources told the Times "a mix of the two" happened.

The Turkish invasion began shortly after President Donald Trump announced US troops would be repositioning away from Kurdish forces, who have been US allies in the fight against ISIS.

On Sunday, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper announced that the remaining 1,000 US troops in northern Syria would be withdrawn, as intelligence shows a more expansive Turkish invasion and a possible Kurdish counter-attack in conjunction with Syrian and Russian forces.

Nostalgia4Butts posted:

god dammit john bolton is the master of musical chairs

facialimpediment posted:

The Rudy thing also includes a counterintelligence probe!

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1184531704649789448?s=19

If anyone here ever invents a time machine, go back in time and make their loving parents hug them as children.

Casimir Radon posted:

If Nancy is a third rate politician then what does that make Donnie?

Nostalgia4Butts posted:

https://twitter.com/NocturnusLes/status/1184610534395654144?s=20

Kesper North posted:

I saw that picture and the opening twang of Nobody Speak played in my head.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUC2EQvdzmY

Hot Karl Marx posted:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump...ingawful.com%2F

Smiling Jack posted:

mcraven wrote an op-ed in the nytimes


The spiral of our slow motion constitutional crisis is tightening

Scope posted:

Is that one of those cartel-made armored vehicles speeding by at 11 seconds in the video?

Smiling Jack posted:

Probably give the 75th Ranger Regiment a new home base with the 82nd airborne and 2ACR (or whoever the hell has that mission now) to follow shortly.

Smiling Jack posted:

I meant more along the "seize hostile airfield and establish a airhead" not "secure the nukes". I would hope all that noise about being able to put a shitload of troops on the ground in a hurry isn't just a fantasy.