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You are the Psephologer - What's the next UK government going to be? This poll is closed. |
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| Tory Majority |
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6 | 1.17% |
| Labour Majority |
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33 | 6.42% |
| Lib Dem Majority |
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1 | 0.19% |
| Tory+DUP |
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4 | 0.78% |
| Labour+SNP |
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28 | 5.45% |
| Labour+SNP+Lib Dem |
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18 | 3.50% |
| Something Else |
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4 | 0.78% |
| Pissflaps |
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420 | 81.71% |
| Total: | 514 votes | ||
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Christmas has come early for the people of Britain. Our MPs have given us the greatest gift of all - a rare, pre-Christmas General Election, meaning our festival of democracy stretches into a fifth year. Of course this election is a direct result of the long, tortuous Brexit process - a process that will dominate the proceedings, whether those involved like it or not. The Story so Far In 2015 David Cameron won a surprise Tory majority after promising to hold a 'straight in out referendum' on the UK's EU membership. After negotiating some minimal concessions from the EU ahead of the vote, the referendum took place in June 2016. Against expectations Leave won, causing Cameron to Resign and Theresa May to be chosen as Tory leader, and the next Prime Minister of the UK. In March 2017, and without much of a plan of what to do next, May sent the letter to the EU triggering Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union and starting the (supposedly) two year process of negotiating the country's withdrawal from the EU. Riding high on opinion polls suggesting an election at the time would lead to a massively increased Tory majority - which would smooth the process of reaching parliamentary agreement on any deal she had brokered. That's not how it worked out. Polarised by Brexit, the country similarly was polarised between the two main parties, with the Tories and Labour both benefitting from an upsurge in support - but Labour performed far better than expected, denying May a majority though seeing her returned as PM thanks to a bung to the Northern Irish DUP propping up a precarious minority government. May did secure a deal late in 2017, which was put to parliament several times and each time rejected. Other options - such as a second referendum - were also unable to secure majority support in the House eventually leading to May resigning, and a new Tory leader being elected by the Conservative party in Boris Johnson. Johnson negotiated a new deal, a harder version of Brexit that still failed to secure a majority of the house. Forced by Parliament to request a further extension to the Article 50 process, he sought a general election to break the impasse and tonight he has succeeded. We're going to the polls on December 12th. Merry loving Christmas. The Tory Party  'Legend' Bozza made his name as a journalist, political comedy show panelist and minor politician until eventually becoming Mayor of London. After a failed attempt in 2016, he finally made it to the office Prime Minister in 2019. He needs to secure a Tory majority large enough to vote through his deal - walking a tightrope between extolling the virtues of the deal he has won, without frightening hard Brexiters who think any deal with the EU is unacceptable, and losing out to the Brexit party. The Labour Party  Jeremy 'Jezza' Corbyn is a controversial figure and has, whether you think this is a good thing or not, transformed the Labour party into what we see today. Often accused of having preceded over a confused Brexit policy, he'll be aiming to make this election about everything else. But it's unlikely to work. His party needs to be Remainy in some areas, and Leavy in others. He needs Johnson to be as bad on the campaign trail as May was. The Lib Dems  Have adopted a clear 'revoke article 50' policy which, while not necessarily feasible, gives hard Remainers a reason to vote for them. After a terrible showing in 2017, they've picked up some dissenting Labour and Tory MPs and will be hoping to capitalise on Remain sentiment to pinch seats off both Labour and the Tories. The Brexit Party  A single issue party for whom no Brexit can be hard enough. Will be seeking to take hard leave seats from the Tories, but may just end up splitting the Tory vote and letting another party in in some constituencies. Essentially a vehicle for Farage. Some fanciful talk of a pact with the Tories to see them stand down or ignore some hard-Leave seats. Can't see it happening tbh. The SNP Standing only in Scotland, they'll be hoping for a repeat of their performance in 2015 when they took almost all Scottish seats. Good timing for Sturgeon, ahead of Salmond's sex crime trial in the new year. They may seek to make this election a proxy referendum on independence - or at least the desire for another referendum. Being in a position to prop up a minority Labour government could be enough to secure another referendum, or at least the right to choose if and when one happens. CUKTIG A group of MPs who have left the Tories and Labour, notionally over Brexit, to form a pseudo party. They'll probably all lose their seats this election, though they may cause problems for some candidates of their former parties. Other Parties There are other parties. Mainly in Northern Ireland. What's going to happen?  Nobody knows. It's very exciting. Maybe the current high levels of support for the Lib Dems and Brexit will drift back home and we'll have a re-run of 2017. Or maybe their support will hold and the vagaries of the FPTP system will lead to all sorts of weird results and an unexpected outcome. December 12th is going to be exciting as hell. My prediction? Well, as you asked. Tories largest party, though without a majority or the ability to form a government. The next government to be supported by an uneasy alliance of Labour, Lib Dems and SNP (though not a formal coalition) which will be enough to oversee a new Brexit deal that eventually gets ratified, to be followed by another General Election within the year. Everyone will be hosed off. quote:we should be kind Pissflaps fucked around with this message at 00:12 on Oct 30, 2019 |
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Oct 29, 2019 22:40
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I'm excited to cast my vote!
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Oct 29, 2019 22:52
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 My pipedream is that labour wins the majority and Jezza & co finally get the chance to right the ship. My more realistic hope is that the Tories lose so many seats that they have to form a three-party coalition, forcing them to make huge concessions.
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Oct 29, 2019 22:52
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Just cast my vote for Pissflaps! Excited to un-bookmark this thread and only read UKMT soon.
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Oct 29, 2019 22:53
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Now I'm not saying this is one of those elections which will determine the fate of humanity... but this is one of those elections which will determine the fate of humanity. Lets go Labour!
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Oct 29, 2019 22:53
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TIBFJC
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Oct 29, 2019 22:54
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...is that an Official Pissflaps Prediction(tm)?
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Oct 29, 2019 22:55
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sebzilla posted:...is that an Official Pissflaps Prediction(tm)? It is. And I forgot to include Labour+Lib Dem as an option in the poll. Sorry everyone.
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Oct 29, 2019 22:56
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oh pissflaps, you rapscallion 
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Oct 29, 2019 22:56
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I'm voting for Jeremy Bearimy
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Oct 29, 2019 22:56
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JordanKai posted:
Alternatively, Pissflaps majority, with first inaugural vote on official best flavour of monster munch. God I'm hype but also terrified, November and December are going to really gently caress me off with anxiety.
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Oct 29, 2019 22:57
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Pissflaps posted:It is. Also the maximum despair/comedy option, Tory+Lib Dem
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Oct 29, 2019 23:00
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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PittTheElder posted:Also the maximum despair/comedy option, Tory+Lib Dem FFS you're right.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:02
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Jez for Christmas. Make it happen. Gonna renew my membership which lapsed after the last election.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:03
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My prediction for election results is Corbyn in No 10 and pissflaps fuckin off forever.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:04
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Pissflaps posted:FFS you're right.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:04
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Prediction: 
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Oct 29, 2019 23:04
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Can't wait to vote for Labour in the UK General Election 2019.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:05
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Lol pissflaps
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Oct 29, 2019 23:06
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Did we have separate UKMT/UK General Election threads in the past? It would make more sense to keep it under the banner of UKMT because this lovely little country has nothing else going on in terms of politics right now. Except football, I guess. But aside from Middlesbrough inevitably descending into League 1, theres nothing interesting going on there either.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:07
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Friendly reminder https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/595112367358406656?s=19
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Oct 29, 2019 23:07
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Steve2911 posted:Jez for Christmas. Make it happen. 
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Oct 29, 2019 23:08
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Gorn Myson posted:But aside from Middlesbrough inevitably descending into League 1, theres nothing interesting going on there either. Middlesbrough South, my constituency will actually be a really interesting one to watch as it's a very marginal Tory seat - having been Labour from its inception in 1997. How Labour fares here will be a bell-weather for other similar Northern areas which are traditionally Labour, but have been caught up in the Brexit rhetoric that the Tories are now using.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:13
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If Labour and the SNP went into a coalition. then Scotland had another referendum and that is successful. What happens? Does Labour need to find another government partner or is another GE held
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Oct 29, 2019 23:13
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Gorn Myson posted:Did we have separate UKMT/UK General Election threads in the past? It would make more sense to keep it under the banner of UKMT because this lovely little country has nothing else going on in terms of politics right now. Except football, I guess. But aside from Middlesbrough inevitably descending into League 1, theres nothing interesting going on there either. Maybe we can manage two? And also Justice For Pissflaps this the kind of technicality play the UK is living in.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:14
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CyberPingu posted:If Labour and the SNP went into a coalition. then Scotland had another referendum and that is successful. What happens? Does Labour need to find another government partner or is another GE held I think its unlikely we'll get a formal coalition - rather a Labour minority government that has a supply and demand agreement with one or more parties. I think the constitutional upheaval of Scexit would almost guarantee another election, even if one hadn't already happened anyway.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:15
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CyberPingu posted:If Labour and the SNP went into a coalition. then Scotland had another referendum and that is successful. What happens? Does Labour need to find another government partner or is another GE held It would depend on the terms wouldn't it? They could hold it on the terms that they'll leave at the next election, giving everyone a bit of time to prepare.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:16
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hey op what do you think of, let's say, transgender issues any opinions you might feel like sharing. all for free speech i am
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Oct 29, 2019 23:16
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Angepain posted:hey op what do you think of, let's say, transgender issues not op but i think trans ppl (and nb ppl and intersex ppl and anyone else who doesn't fit the binary model!) are v. cool and v. good
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Oct 29, 2019 23:18
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Pissflaps posted:Middlesbrough South, my constituency will actually be a really interesting one to watch as it's a very marginal Tory seat - having been Labour from its inception in 1997. How Labour fares here will be a bell-weather for other similar Northern areas which are traditionally Labour, but have been caught up in the Brexit rhetoric that the Tories are now using.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:19
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An interesting result would be a Labour minority with a bidding war between the SNP and Libdems for the position of minor partner. I'm pretty sure that the SNP would settle for increased autonomy for the Scottish Parliament rather than an indyref if this was the case.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:20
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Lmao the king is back baby, the king is back
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Oct 29, 2019 23:21
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Soylent Yellow posted:An interesting result would be a Labour minority with a bidding war between the SNP and Libdems for the position of minor partner. I'm pretty sure that the SNP would settle for increased autonomy for the Scottish Parliament rather than an indyref if this was the case. I think at minimum they'd demand the right to hold a referendum without a Section 30 order (approval of Westminster). It would be interesting if Labour could form a majority with either the SNP or the Lib Dems - because then they could play them off against each other, depending on the issue. And they could always count on the SNP to not vote against them and with the Tories - the optics of doing so in Scotland would be terrible for them.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:23
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i am rooting for a pissflaps majority government
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Oct 29, 2019 23:23
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Venuz Patrol posted:i am rooting for a pissflaps majority government I'll release my four major manifesto points along with the other main parties.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:24
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I am scared, but hopeful, but also despondent, but also energised, but also too much of an unpalatable human being to actually do any sort of campaign help. 
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Oct 29, 2019 23:33
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Are british voters mentally ill and not capable of remembering what happened the last time the lib dems had sizeable support?
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Oct 29, 2019 23:38
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Would be just like the UK to never get around to repealing the FTPA and weird one-line bills with pointless arguing over the date to become a parliamentary tradition like the magic mace or fake resignations.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:39
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Bobby Deluxe posted:I am scared, but hopeful, but also despondent, but also energised, but also too much of an unpalatable human being to actually do any sort of campaign help. Unless you are literally Prince Andrew zipping up his fly while a pre-teen weeps in the flowerbed don't worry about the optics of your door knocking, And if you legit don't want to show yourself to another human being then there's always delivering letters and flyers. But no matter how unpalatable you think you are, people massively value just being approached face-to-face. Going into the booth no-one thinks 'eh that guy that gave a poo poo enough to talk to me was kind of a neckbeard won't be voting for him', they think 'which party spoke to me?' and if someone from that party literally spoke to them that has a huge impact.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:40
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| # ? May 6, 2024 14:55 |
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https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1189233432158789633?s=19 Is this Good or Bad for Jeremy Corbyn?
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Oct 29, 2019 23:48
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