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You are the Psephologer - What's the next UK government going to be? This poll is closed. |
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| Tory Majority |
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6 | 1.17% |
| Labour Majority |
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33 | 6.42% |
| Lib Dem Majority |
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1 | 0.19% |
| Tory+DUP |
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4 | 0.78% |
| Labour+SNP |
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28 | 5.45% |
| Labour+SNP+Lib Dem |
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18 | 3.50% |
| Something Else |
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4 | 0.78% |
| Pissflaps |
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420 | 81.71% |
| Total: | 514 votes | ||
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sebzilla posted:https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1189233432158789633?s=19 It's bad for him in that seat - though I think this election is going to be characterised by lots of very localised stories like that going one way or the other. I think the Exit Poll (which relies on changes in a selection of the same seats election-to-election to gauge the national result) is going to be really tested this time.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:50
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LDs have a shot at a lot of traditionally Tory seats. Tunbridge Wells is in play! If Labour can get a plurality of votes then it would be a lot easier to form a minority government, so it’s worth voting Labour even if your constituency is a foregone conclusion. Dislike of liberals notwithstanding, if it’s a close Tory/LD race then I personally would say hold your nose and vote LD; they might be 90% likely to gently caress everything up but a Tory is 100% likely to gently caress everything up.
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Oct 29, 2019 23:54
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polls are all bullshit, hth
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Oct 30, 2019 00:01
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Venomous posted:polls are all bullshit, hth I disagree. People tend to say this when they look at a poll and then look at the result it was a poll for and point out the difference, which there usually is. Polls don't predict results, they gauge current public opinion. You might think that current public opinion is irrelevant, which is one point of view, but I think it's useful to know. Or at least try to know.
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Oct 30, 2019 00:04
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I'm going for a Labour-Conservative coalition with Boris as PM and Tom Watson as Deputy PM.
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Oct 30, 2019 00:07
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Pissflaps posted:Polls don't predict results, they gauge current public opinion. You might think that current public opinion is irrelevant, which is one point of view, but I think it's useful to know. Or at least try to know. thank you for agreeing with my point a point which is not mentioned enough: the British public is wrong about pretty much everything
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Oct 30, 2019 00:09
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I'm popping into this thread to say I'm angry that "JO;" Jeb Meme isn't the pictorial representation for the Lib Dems in the OP
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Oct 30, 2019 00:10
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Pissflaps posted:I disagree. People tend to say this when they look at a poll and then look at the result it was a poll for and point out the difference, which there usually is. Polls don't predict results, they gauge current public opinion. You might think that current public opinion is irrelevant, which is one point of view, but I think it's useful to know. Or at least try to know. Nah, polls are also frequently bullshit. It's pretty damned obvious Yougov's model is designed to suppress Labour turnout relative to Tory turnout, resulting in the polls from the last few years widely at odds with all other polling companies. Also, because you end up with this poo poo - https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/politics/half-young-people-say-over-20743080 "Half of young people say over-70s should be banned from voting" First off, the actual question was - "Q17. "In matters of potential major permanent change such as Brexit there should be an upper age limit of 70 on voting, because people who won't have to live with the consequences of a vote shouldn't dictate the outcome to those who will."" And whilst I still disagree, I can see more of an argument for this view than a general blanket ban on old folks voting. Second off, here's an extract from the tables -  Approx 300 male and 300 female respondents in the 18-34 bracket. 600 people is not a representative sample.
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Oct 30, 2019 00:16
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Nice OP, I look forward to ignoring this threadMs Adequate posted:not op but i think trans ppl (and nb ppl and intersex ppl and anyone else who doesn't fit the binary model!) are v. cool and v. good I'm voting for Ms Adequate
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Oct 30, 2019 00:43
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mehall posted:It's pretty damned obvious Yougov's model is designed to suppress Labour turnout relative to Tory turnout, resulting in the polls from the last few years widely at odds with all other polling companies. Sometimes polls are right, and sometimes they are wrong. Just how it goes.
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Oct 30, 2019 00:44
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Ban Pissflaps from this thread too.
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Oct 30, 2019 01:03
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Gonzo McFee posted:Ban Pissflaps from this thread too. This But also remember give some money or time to labour if you can spare it, ladies, lads and other assorted comrades
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Oct 30, 2019 01:18
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Communist Thoughts posted:This I'm a member and I'll be door knocking. Even though I'm in the safest loving Tory seat in the north west  I'm a stone's throw from a decent Labour seat though so I can see if I can help out there.
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Oct 30, 2019 01:19
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In the interest of preventing separatism and factionalism, I condemn this thread as bad and everyone here should repatriate themselves to the ukmt for good times and jam socialism.
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Oct 30, 2019 01:41
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When is this thread starting its podcast?
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Oct 30, 2019 01:47
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If you can get away from threadbans by making your own thread then the whole concept of modding is a farce. I too call for pissflaps to be banned from this thread and sent to lurk in c-spam (which is the better forum but I don't read their uk thread so I can ignore him)
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Oct 30, 2019 01:54
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C'mon jam man
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Oct 30, 2019 01:55
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MrFlibble posted:If you can get away from threadbans by making your own thread then the whole concept of modding is a farce. I too call for pissflaps to be banned from this thread and sent to lurk in c-spam (which is the better forum but I don't read their uk thread so I can ignore him) cspam is actually pretty bad and you should treat it badly
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Oct 30, 2019 03:52
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MrFlibble posted:If you can get away from threadbans by making your own thread then the whole concept of modding is a farce. I too call for pissflaps to be banned from this thread and sent to lurk in c-spam (which is the better forum but I don't read their uk thread so I can ignore him) He's banned from that one too.
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Oct 30, 2019 04:10
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I like Pissflaps. Let this thread breathe free. I've been reading a lot about how Corbyn's not going to have it easy this time because Johnson's a much better campaigner than May. How bad was Theresa May? I have a hard time looking at Boris Johnson and imagining voting for that guy, but I'm not from your country.
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Oct 30, 2019 04:16
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Brony Car posted:I like Pissflaps. Let this thread breathe free. Well Boris isn't doing great tbh, he keeps coming up with ~masterstrokes~ which fail horribly
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Oct 30, 2019 04:30
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Chuka Umana posted:cspam is actually pretty bad and you should treat it badly 
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Oct 30, 2019 04:33
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Do people think Corbyn will replicate, at least in part, the campaign surge as in 2017?
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Oct 30, 2019 04:38
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icantfindaname posted:Do people think Corbyn will replicate, at least in part, the campaign surge as in 2017? I think most people expect it'll be a smaller surge, but the sense I get is certainly that between purdah and press reporting rules, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see something similar. And unlike May springing the election on the country out of nowhere, this one's been expected for a good long time - time Labour has spent figuring out a lot of policies which are very popular and, if they can get them out there successfully, could do a lot.
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Oct 30, 2019 06:05
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icantfindaname posted:Do people think Corbyn will replicate, at least in part, the campaign surge as in 2017? I think people's opinions are more firmly entrenched than 2017 and Corbyn is more well known so any surge will be smaller. I think it depends upon how successful Labour is in moving the election away from Brexit and clawing back Remainers swayed by the Lib Dems. Also how much airtime Richard Burgon gets.
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Oct 30, 2019 07:38
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jBrereton posted:They were very close to the actual results of the EU election, including the Labour vote (just overestimating Brexit Party votes by about 6%, which favoured the Conservatives in the end), while Survation, who got it mostly right in 2017, were about 10% off (in relative terms, 80% overestimated) the Labour vote share a couple of days before the vote. Polls are more right than anecdotes or guessing but my bet is that they will be more wrong this election. Election polls rely on turnout models etc and I don't trust anyone's prediction of how this short notice high stakes election is going to impact turnout in various groups. One other thing about UK polling, most polls are national polls and constituency level polling is usually poor, in part due to there being so many. That makes national polls a poor guide of the exact level of representation that translates into at Westminster. Add the fct that this election many of the traditional voting blocks have broken down due to brexit means that election outcome prognostications are much more fraught.
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Oct 30, 2019 08:00
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Brony Car posted:I like Pissflaps. Let this thread breathe free. Well as the op points out May actually gained votes. Her campaigning was bad but the attempt from some to claim that Corbyn only made gains because of that doesn't really hold water. My take is that they were by and large talking past one another to very different groups of people, so even though the media prefer to frame it as a head to head because they makes a good story that doesn't really gel with the results. Assuming that holds, it's less about Corbyn vs Johnson, and more about whether Labour lose ground to the Lib Dems, whether the Tories lose ground to Farage, and also how many people decide just to stay at home and not bother. There's a question of how much impact things like the antisemitism claims will have on Corbyn, but it's worth pointing out that a lot of people, as you say, really despise Johnson where they merely weren't keen on May. His popularity with hardcore Brexiteers comes at a cost. If he loses one vote to the Lib Dems for every vote he gains from BXP then it all comes down to geographical distribution, which national level polling doesn't really cover.
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Oct 30, 2019 08:27
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Brony Car posted:I like Pissflaps. Let this thread breathe free. Whether or not Joris is a better campaigner is up to be debated. He's certainly more "down with the people" - May's problem was that she has absolutely no connection to the common person because she is a robot. Joris has that posh toff you can drink with vibe, expect to see him in Wetherspoons' up and down the country enjoying a drink with the lads. I think the age range will be fascinating - the people who were around for the Bozza proper lad era are now entering their 30s, statistically less likely to be Tories, in favour of Brexit, and more likely to support Labour. Those younger skew much more towards Labour. Can Joris lock down that key 30-50 year old range? That's his path to victory.
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Oct 30, 2019 08:59
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I'm going to engage in democracy in the usual way, which is to vote on the day and then buy a cup of coffee and a pastry of some kind.
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Oct 30, 2019 09:16
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I'll vote after work at about 6pm then have my tea then watch the results roll in with a bottle of Aldi whisky.
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Oct 30, 2019 09:25
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yus this avatar is great
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Oct 30, 2019 09:37
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If I can drive Swinson out of my constituency and off the throne of the Yellow Prince then I can call my day productive. As is though this is all pissing in the wind, we (the four nations of the uk) are four beaten wives chained to a lunatic with a lust for murder-suicide, and the sooner I’m anywhere else the better. ConanThe3rd fucked around with this message at 10:02 on Oct 30, 2019 |
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Oct 30, 2019 09:56
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Pissflaps posted:I'll vote after work at about 6pm then have my tea then watch the results roll in with a bottle of Aldi whisky. I heard the Aldi whisky is actually pretty good once you get past the initial notes of superglue. I have an early morning tutorial on the 13th so I guess I'm not staying up for this one.
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Oct 30, 2019 10:13
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Sanitary Naptime posted:In the interest of preventing separatism and factionalism, I condemn this thread as bad and everyone here should repatriate themselves to the ukmt for good times and jam socialism. Factionalism is the devil of all comradeship. Close this revisionist thread.
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Oct 30, 2019 10:16
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Party Boat posted:I heard the Aldi whisky is actually pretty good once you get past the initial notes of superglue. I like the 8 year old one it's £12.99. Depressing listening to the radio 5 live phone in this morning. Dear me.
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Oct 30, 2019 10:26
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Junior G-man posted:Factionalism is the devil of all comradeship. Close this revisionist thread. Support the politics thread not made by a transphobe imo
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Oct 30, 2019 10:33
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I don't have any Aldis nearby. I live in what is historically a Labour safe seat but the LDs are going all out already with leaflet drops and I imagine it's only a matter of time before the doorstepping starts. Theres enough of the typical LD target set here that I feel its possible for them to flip it if they target it enough.
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Oct 30, 2019 11:21
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I'm going to vote by post. If anyone wants to do the same, this it the form you need to print out. The instructions are all on it. https://assets.publishing.service.g...d-Wales__1_.pdf
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Oct 30, 2019 11:50
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ConanThe3rd posted:As is though this is all pissing in the wind, we (the four nations of the uk) are four beaten wives chained to a lunatic with a lust for murder-suicide, and the sooner I’m anywhere else the better.
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Oct 30, 2019 11:53
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I just moved to a labour seat in wales so hopefully it stays labour! or pissflaps
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Oct 30, 2019 12:17
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