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jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Farage claiming he's going to hurt Labour more than the Tories, but then bashing Johnson's deal as not really Brexit.

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jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1190225958353166337
Boris can't scrap his deal. He's trapped.

Of course, TIBFJC.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1190217590192390144
How many 2017 voters the Brexit party is currently taking from each party

Key clarification: 19% of the Tory Leaver vote is a lot more votes than 25% of the Labour Leaver vote.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Farage giving an easy answer to why he doesn't care if he splits the vote: Johnson's deal isn't Brexit, so unless he drops it he sees no difference between that and Remain.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

RockyB posted:

On the one hand, those lab - > lib numbers blow my hopes out of the water.

On the other hand, ehhhhh YouGov.

A lot will depend on those votes coming back.

But as the campaign progresses its going to become more and more obvious that the Lib Dem position of 'we'll win a majority' is ridiculous. And Labour will become the only game in town for stopping Brexit.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/michael_chessum/status/1190242180109078531
This is actually slick as loving hell. Might even be motivated to go out canvassing rather than just chucking some cash.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Glad they've gone with someone other than the BBC, the chances of Labour getting a fair hearing there were nonexistent.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1190355115015901185
So this is kinda out of the blue.

Great news though. But it really, really smacks of "we've had a terrible week, we need to do something to get control of the agenda again... uh... uh.. fracking is banned!!"

I hope they get no political capital out of it and everyone constantly reminds them they defended fracking to the hilt extremely recently.

Also lol, a fracking lobbyist is writing their manifesto and they've done this.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

TwoShanks posted:

So since I'm posting tonight can someone give me some pointers to resources on trans support? My spouse is trans and will be starting transition soon (ftm) but I can't find much for partners of trans people. Also are there any good British socialist songs (other than Billy Bragg)?

Grace Petrie does good stuff right now, I particularly like They Shall Not Pass and Revolutionary in the Wrong Time.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

So the Tories have 'banned fracking', a major and costly policy U-turn that could neutralise a big environmental argument for Labour.

Let's see what's on the news today.

a) Rugby rugby rugby
b) reminding everyone fracking exists
c) showing a clip of Andrea Leadsom saying fracking is awesome and the ban is temporary
d) showing a clip of Corbyn saying only Labour will ban fracking for good

Classic Dom.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Guavanaut posted:

I do, but they take up a bunch of full 13A sockets on the lead, a bunch of little shaver sockets between the big ones would be much more convenient. I guess I could plug power cubes into power strips ad inferos, but it just seems like something that should exist but doesn't.

The rationale is that most normal functioning countries don't use ring mains, every couple of sockets is a radial with its own breaker, so the plugs themselves don't have to have fuses, so they can be smaller and you can say "hey, you can plug both the small two pin double insulated things and the big three pin grounded things into this universal socket.

Also other countries believe that RCDs/GFIs are real things that work so you can have a proper socket in the bathroom and still have your two pin electric toothbrush, whereas the UK went instead with shaver sockets that don't have RCDs and yet can still deliver enough current to kill you but you can't plug anything useful into them.

Fucken l-o-l.

Fuses on plugs do nothing to protect the wiring in the wall, they protect the flex going to the appliance. Which is lower gauge and could potentially overheat during a fault condition even if it wasn't passing enough current to trip the circuit breaker. It's nothing to do with us using ring mains.

Also shaver sockets in bathrooms are actually isolating transformers, which means unlike the mains supply their output isn't referenced to ground. That means you can theoretically touch the live output directly while holding Earthed plumbing and you won't get a shock, because current can only flow if there's a path back to the transformer itself rather than simply to Earth (which is the case with mains voltage). So you'd have to be touching both the live and neutral at the same time to be shocked which is much less likely than touching one. Making them safer for bathroom use with all that Earthed plumbing and water around.

Can you tell I watch a lot of YouTube videos on this stuff?

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Bundy posted:

It has its quirks, but having dealt with US 'lectrics, I bloody love UK electrical standards/wiring. Right down to the genius plug/caltrop design.

Electrical stuff is actually really interesting. Ring mains are almost certainly bad, but in general the UK electrical system kicks rear end.

Re: Polling chat, it's all over the place BUT the gap is narrower now than it was at the start of the 2017 campaign. Back then Labour were averaging about 27% and the Tories averaging 44% - 17 point gap. Now we have a 10/11 point gap.

Plus stuff like intense targeting of marginal seats could make all the difference without being reflected in national polling. It's all to play for.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

CGI Stardust posted:

devil's advocate: Swinson isn't entirely wrong from the LD point of view. They're assuming that politics has restructured entirely around Brexit and Leave / Remain, in which case the good council and EU election results for LD in that district might become a better predictor than the 2017 result, and the graph almost (with a bunch of twisting around in the ol' brainpan) makes sense - Full Remain vs Full Leave and we don't understand what Labour are doing and neither does anyone else.

Would I like to bet on this? No I would not.

Did you see the survey question the graph was produced from?

Absolutely nothing to do with the Euro or council elections. They literally asked people 'if only the Lib Dems or Conservatives could win, who would you vote for?' and put the result in a graph.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

marktheando posted:

What is the deal with Milne? From the media I understand he's a Stalinist brexiteer who whispers in old king Corbyn's ear like wormtongue.

How much of that is true? I'm pretty sure he's probably not actually a Stalinist, but he definitely seems to be pro-Brexit?

Not wanting Labour to go full Remain doesn't mean he's pro-Brexit.

He is an election adviser after all, and as much as I sympathise with everyone who wants Labour to come down hard on the side of Remain it's really difficult to see how that leads to a majority government.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

CoolCab posted:

I honestly think the strategic ambiguity has been to avoid letting the Conservatives become the Leave party rather than trying to squabble over the Remain minority. it’s been damaging to the party but giving the Tories a clear lane to a punchy rerun of the referendum and strong majority would be disastrous for the country.

The next five weeks will tell whether the strategy has worked or not.

Trying to avoid becoming the Remain party was always going to hurt Labour in the polls, but pay off when people are finally faced with a stark choice of them or the Tories. It all comes down to how much we can squeeze the Lib Dem vote without losing our Brexiteers.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

goddamnedtwisto posted:

I mean yeah it's probably loving poo poo up there too but this is Cities of London and Westminster, where I'm volunteering for canvassing wherever possible because a) we're only a few thousand votes off unseating Mark "I acted on instinct to assault a completely peaceful woman because she might have been a heavily armed terrorist, not because she was loving up my lovely posh meal with all my posh mates" Field, b) Chuka is the LD candidate, c) it's only 20 minutes on the Tube and there's nice pubs in the area, d) Chuka is the LD candidate, and e) Chuka is the LD candidate.

Actually have we talked about this? It really doesn't make sense for Chuka to be standing in Two Cities. The LDs are a really distant third and the really weird demographics of the area (almost 50/50 split between really lovely council estates around Victoria and really loving expensive Sloanes and City boys pads) means there's basically no natural base for them, even by London's standards. There are much closer races he could be involved in and you'd think his ego wouldn't let him go to a seat where he knew he'd be third (which is why he's not trying to retain his seat in Streatham despite claiming that the 20-odd thousand majority he had there was purely because of his own charm).

As far as I can tell there are two possibilities here - either he's so loving hated by the LDs that they just gave him an important-sounding seat to lose so they could be rid of him, or he actually believes their bullshit bar graphs and thinks that he has a chance of quadrupling their vote from 2017.

e: Actually even their bullshit bar graphs don't make sense as a theory - the seat was heavily Remain and did go LD in the Euros, but so did Streatham, and to an even greater extent.

I don't think Chuka actually wants to be a Lib Dem. Without the chance of a cabinet (or even shadow cabinet) job I don't think politics holds much appeal to him.

He probably just wants to run as a wrecker, hand the seat to the Tories and then step into a nice cushy consulting job.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

It's really quite amazing that the Telegraph is still taken so seriously when it has a piddling readership of 385,000.

Compare that to the 2.5 million who watched Labour's first campaign video on Twitter alone, within the first 24 hours.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Ms Adequate posted:

Yeah, this is why I hesitate to condemn like, sports stars and musicians and the like who make mad bank. I want higher taxes on them, but it's money earned honestly through giving a lot of people what they want (Even if we can all quibble about whether someone is 'worth' a club paying £X money for) and even if it's outsized to their social contributions, it still relies on a lot of people voluntarily deciding that Sports is Good and Valuable, or an album is The Slap, or whatever. In short they're providing actual value, I guess. Twats what move money around or just own property are leeches who should be a far more immediate target. Matt's a bit different because he uses his work to directly stan for conservative hatred and boomer cowardice, so he's actively doing harm even if he's also doing honest work.

Plus I'm a little hesitant to condemn that kind of thing because historically some of the very few ways a poor kid from the council estates/projects/banlieues could actually make huge money have been to be LeBron or Ronaldo or some poor scouser kids in the 50s, which I recognize is a very tiny positive in a very negative system and makes no systemic difference. But ehhh as above, I think there are much bigger targets to go after first, and it'd be much better to worry about a fairer and better society elsewhere before we worry about any kind of systemic corrections of that kind of thing.

Yeah, I think we've had this discussion before about footballers and other high-net-worth individuals that still ostensibly earn their money through work. I think the general consensus is that while they're an edge case, they still often have more in common with us proles than with the capitalist class.

I mean you only have to look at the various movie stars who were forced to work with Weinstein, or how Taylor Swift's entire back catalogue ended up owned by someone who apparently bullied her for years. Or how Kaepernick ended up losing his football career because he pissed off his managers. They might be absolutely loaded and could technically give up their careers any time, but if you scratch the surface their 'image', their output and their future financial success usually turns out to be completely controlled by someone else who sits in the background and skims off the lion's share of the profits. So their labour is still not their own, no matter how much they make.

jabby fucked around with this message at 05:41 on Nov 4, 2019

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Bobby Deluxe posted:

I'm sure he thinks he's being clever, but the stupid thing about this is that he's very publicly giving Corbyn a chance to write a bangin comeback which the press are kind of going to have to acknowledge.

Corbyn is literally giving a big speech on Brexit tomorrow so I'm not sure why Johnson has wasted his time on this letter. If the intention was to draw attention to Labour's Brexit policy... just wait 24 hours? Right now it has zero impact apart from telling Corbyn what attack lines he can expect and give him chance to counter them.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Corbyn should absolutely agree to do the three way debate.

At some point someone is going to turn to Swinson and ask "what the gently caress are your OTHER policies?" and at that pint she'll dissolve like the Wicked Witch of the West.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

So just today the Tories have:

1) Insulted the victims of Grenfell
2) Released a doctored video of Keir Starmer and been called out on it
3) Leaked a briefing document forbidding Tories from signing pledges to protect the NHS or prevent climate change, but expressly allowing them to pledge to protect shooting animals for sport.

Guys, we can only use so much ammunition. Pace yourselves!

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

jabby posted:

So just today the Tories have:

1) Insulted the victims of Grenfell
2) Released a doctored video of Keir Starmer and been called out on it
3) Leaked a briefing document forbidding Tories from signing pledges to protect the NHS or prevent climate change, but expressly allowing them to pledge to protect shooting animals for sport.

Guys, we can only use so much ammunition. Pace yourselves!

I posted this a few hours ago, and before even the six o'clock news the Wales minister was being asked to step down for a cover-up scandal that wasn't even in my list.

How the gently caress are Tories so bad at this?

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Vitamin P posted:

That's not true though, early years Cameron would have one-nationed it, even T-May tried to address it in her own lovely way. This deliberate insulting of the dead is new, either it's them being undisciplined and going mask off or it's a strategy, but it's not business as usual behaviour.

Yeah there's no way this is deliberate.

I can well believe there are a handful of voters who think Grenfell victims brought it on themselves, but those voters a) don't need to hear it from anyone else and b) aren't target voters for the Tories.

The Tories are explicitly targeting working-class voters. I'm pretty sure their strategy board didn't include insulting the intelligence of the working-class victims of a tragedy.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Johnson really isn't a great speaker. The difference between him and Corbyn talking today is immense, he doesn't sound remotely Prime Ministerial.

Genuinely chuckling to myself all day today about everyone saying "Johnson won't run a terrible campaign like May did".

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/RaynerSkyNews/status/1192090501081706497
Uhhhh, why?

This seems like Watson is trying to boot the decision to her so she gets the flack.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

thespaceinvader posted:

Lol it's the CUKTIG logo but in the colours of all the major parties, AND it looks like they've redacted her policies.

Wow, she REALLY has started believing her own bullshit, huh?

I'm frankly amazed she's gone for a May-style "Jo Swinson's Lib Dems" campaign.

Almost universally when I've seen her speak she's been underwhelming, and her every policy decision recently has resulted in Lib Dems yelling at her on Twitter.

Really hope Corbyn debates her.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

goddamnedtwisto posted:

Won't work on these doors because they're just electromagnets, no latch to pull. Also carrying one of them (or an FB access key) is dangerously close to Going Equipped (results may differ depending on skintone).

Do you have to carry a really big opposing magnet to cancel it out?

:justpost:

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Comrade Fakename posted:

I just left the office to get a sandwich and passed a stand giving out Evening Standards. The headline was something like "Don't panic! Boris arrives to calm nerves". On the way back they were putting out the later edition that now said "Disaster! Minister resigns on first day".

Not been a great day for the Tories.

https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1192121728895459328
I got a laugh.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192126915789950976
Encouraging but not that interesting from a topline pespective.

More interesting in the follow up questions:

- Only 29% support Johnson's Brexit deal, 38% oppose

- 25% of Leave voters oppose his deal, 47% support

One in four leave voters not backing his deal could be problematic if the Brexit party really does stand everywhere.

https://twitter.com/DrFrancesRyan/status/1192029756239306752

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

drat what the gently caress has changed with the news?

Watched the News at 10, not only did they show clips of both Johnson and Corbyn but they actually mentioned the guy resigning over the rape trial and then pointed out that all the Tories spending pledges don't actually reverse the cuts they made since 2010.

It's like all the sucking up to the Tories was just to lull them into a false sense of security. Is this.. is this what a normal media is like?

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1192223010742325248

Good news for Labour if the Lib Dem vote share is concentrated in a handful of marginals.

Party Boat posted:

This is from pages and pages back but definitely watch In The Loop. Firstly because it's a great film, but secondly because of the scenes with Steve Coogan complaining about a wall collapsing into his mum's garden. Every MP from the lowliest backbencher to the PM themselves is expected to pay some level of attention to the small-scale issues going on in their constituency.

Of course every MP has office staff and the more important you are in your party the bigger / better staff you get, but in theory the MP is in charge and should make time for residents' issues.

The scene that really stuck with me from In The Loop was the MP being sacked from government, and immediately going from important briefings and chauffeur-driven limos to a tiny constituency office all day, every day listening to people whinge about septic tanks.

It really made me understand why a certain type of MP is so desperate to stay on the front bench. They don't give a flying gently caress about the type of problems that would be their day-job as a back-bench MP.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

HJB posted:



The butterfly meme, but "Is this purdah?"

Big who cares about the papers. If Watson hadn't quit they'd have gone front-page with Johnson's amazing speech and spectacular vision for Britain.

Watson did us a favour quitting in the middle of the Tory launch. This way he pulls attention from something positive they were doing instead of from Labour. He even made very clear it was for personal reasons on TV too, so it's an easy answer for any Labour MPs questioned about it in interviews.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Bottom line though, Watson quitting is great news.

It removes the Labour right from basically any position of power. So if the election goes horribly wrong and Corbyn steps down (which I think he will if he loses, guy has done more than enough for the movement), then we're still in the great position of having a whole range of left-wing MPs to fill the leader and deputy leader posts to continue Labour as a socialist party. The so-called 'moderates' will be nowhere.

If there was a time to erect the 'We Won' sign for the Left, at least regarding the battle for the Labour party, it's now.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Genuinely surprised how many people on twitter are still defending Chris Williamson.

I mean he's running against Labour now seemingly out of spite, and he couldn't even write his resignation letter without accusing the entire Jewish Labour Movement of being controlled by Israel and trying to get Jennie Formby in trouble with the PLP by revealing what she said to him in a private conversation. It's childish, and it shows he's learned absolutely nothing from being suspended.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

The best way to deal with the Ian Austin poo poo is not to signal boost it, but if you're forced then point out that Ian Austin, John Woodcock and John Mann have ALL walked into cushy government-appointed jobs after jumping-before-being-pushed from Labour.

Almost like former Labour MPs are being offered a replacement gravy-train role in exchange for attacking their former party as much as possible.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

team overhead smash posted:

Can anyone clarify; I know 34 of Johnson's new hospitals are purely hypothetical designs but of the remaining 6 how many are actual new hospitals and how many are extensions/rebuilds of existing hospitals?

All six are just refurbs. No new ground will be broken for a totally new hospital anywhere.

Also:

https://twitter.com/tomescritt/status/1192444778547421184

"Corbyn, say nothing if you're Stalin!"
...
"HE'S STALIN EVERYONE"

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

team overhead smash posted:

Is there any source for this?

https://fullfact.org/health/six-hospitals-not-forty/

Miftan posted:

The Corbyn Stalin thing is playing out exactly how the tories want. They've got a regular brigade of people justifying it for the extremely online tories, but for everyone else they're just gonna see 'Tory MP called Corbyn Stalin' on the news with no further explanation and go 'yeah he is isnt he!!'

Strong doubt. I think most people in this country are tired and hosed off with politicians of all stripes rather than angry and furious right now. Outrageous claims about Corbyn are just going to piss them off and drive them away from Johnson.

Imagine the debate between Corbyn and Johnson. If the Stalin stuff got brought up live on air, and Corbyn laughed it off or called it ridiculous and insensitive, who do you think would come off better?

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

Whichever way this election goes the PLP is going to be a better place without so many raging arseholes around and Twatson no longer leaking anything damaging and trying to sabotage the NEC.

News today seems meh for Labour at worst. Lead item was Javid vs McDonnell, with the subtext being 'they both want to borrow and invest, but McDonnell a lot more'. Lots of emphasis on it basically being the same fundamental strategy, which is going to make it hard for the Tories to attack on the economy.

Second item was Austin, yet more claims of antisemitism without a single example brought up. Doubt attacks like that are going to have much effect. At best, it sucks oxygen away from the Tories and makes it seem like they're doing nothing.

jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1192539935309475841
If this becomes the narrative it will help Labour enormously.

quote:

McDonnell is saying to northern voters: "If you voted for Brexit because you were tired of being bossed by a so-called London elite, and being starved of investment while southerners slept on mattresses stuffed with cash, well if you cast your vote for Labour, we'll drown you in money for schools, hospitals, trains and windfarms, and we'll relocate important parts of government, including chunks of the Treasury, to towns and cities near you".

God please let this man be chancellor.

jabby fucked around with this message at 21:56 on Nov 7, 2019

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jabby
Oct 27, 2010

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1192539765335347201
Hope he does it during the debates.

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