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Braggart posted:I've had a feeling for a while that Scottish Labour couldn't be fixed until after a Labour election victory. Now that that's like a month off I feel even more confident I think the chances of Scotlab holding on to our seats depends on whether the election becomes about independence (!surprise!) or stays on domestic issues. Many first-time SNP 2015 voters were de-energised by the 2017 campaign that essentially didn’t involve the independence issue. A combination of this plus unionist tactical voting explains most of the seats the SNP lost in 2017. Scotlab exceeded these expectations in a few Glasgow seats, but generally had almost the same number of votes in each seat as in 2015 - the SNP vote just dropped by much more. If we get a repeat of 2017 where it’s about the domestic agenda for the UK then i reckon Scotlab keeps steady. However our party’s incomprehensible (or nonexistent) independence strategy will ruin us if we are in for a repeat of 2015. 
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Nov 8, 2019 01:17
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For those that signed up to the secret Momentum volunteering form - how long did it take to get a reply?
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Nov 11, 2019 13:19
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Sycophantry posted:I know someone was asking earlier about Momentum and the volunteer sign ups and I'd check your email now. The latest thing they sent said they'd had a problem with their online platform so the last few days of volunteer processing didn't go through. I resubmitted with them and instantly got the invite to the Slack channel. Hoping my inability to go out and canvas can be of some use in the data-entry and support departments. You don't have PMs so I'll just ask here. It was me asking about the Momentum volunteering sign up. I tried the form again and still no luck with any follow up mail. Checked spam folder etc. Do you know if there is someone leading the effort who I could DM on twitter or something? Cheers.
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Nov 12, 2019 23:03
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Sycophantry posted:The email I received sent me to https://volunteer.peoplesmomentum.com/ so check there. I signed up through that and was instantly sent a Slack invite. Unfortunately, it just seemed to be a centrally sent out e-mail with no names. volunteer.peoplesmomentum.com worked straight away. Grand.
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Nov 13, 2019 01:30
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Bundy posted:https://twitter.com/shaunjlawson/status/1198328682554757122 It fills me with cringe to watch comrades (and there have been a lot of them this last week) get conspiratorial about polling companies. It's not worth it. They are individual snapshots of public opinion that are worthwhile only to observe trends if you are a supporter of a particular party. The polling companies use their public political polls as freebie publicity for their commercial polling operations - like the above allowing traders to short markets on polling day. A pre-election poll is selling the accuracy of their methodology and breadth of their polling panels (or their ability to get phone/ responses from difficult areas of the population). A hedge fund wants to buy the services of the firm most likely to make them cash  - but most of their services are bought by companies looking to do market research - e.g. is Bob from Bolton more likely to buy New-Coke if it has a blue font or a red font.
twoot fucked around with this message at 23:14 on Nov 23, 2019 |
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Nov 23, 2019 23:09
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Dabir posted:alright, look at their relative performances and reception on question time. does that look like a ten point Tory lead to you? The vast majority of the population are not politically engaged at all. Question time has a viewership of a few hundred thousand per week - then people have to make a conscious choice to apply to be a audience member. The question time audience - even if weighted to party allegiance like it was on Friday night - is not representative of the general population.
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Nov 24, 2019 16:58
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team overhead smash posted:Got my Labour Legends placement and it's West Bromwich West which apparently has a few other people doing the week+ long placements. Seems an odd choice, doesn't seem that marginal compared to other possible places (Nuneaton being a prime example). West Brom West (current lab maj of ~5000) is predicted to fall to the Tories by the YouGov polling model because of Labour-Leave voters directly transferring. Momentum and Labour are widely switching into a defensive posture to protect those Brexity midlands/northwestern seats - a lot of which haven't seen any great level of volunteering and have remarkably rickety canvassing operations. I guess someone Labour-adjacent in the MRP polling circles tipped off Tom Watson (in West Brom East) after a test poll modelling run or something, because that seat is now similarly under threat. twoot fucked around with this message at 01:49 on Nov 30, 2019 |
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Nov 30, 2019 01:35
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u brexit ukip it posted:I'm convincing myself to go canvassing tomorrow for Ali Milani, in Johnson's constituency. Never done this before but I'm assuming they need all the help they can get. That's fantastic. If you enjoy it next time you could consider going to Putney or Dagenham - Milani gets loads of volunteers (which makes it a good starter location) because of the profile of the seat, but there are other (more neglected) London marginals that Labour needs to form a government. twoot fucked around with this message at 21:22 on Nov 30, 2019 |
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Nov 30, 2019 21:20
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