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kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012


It's Nolan - If you've never had the displeasure to listen to his show he wouldnt be out of place on LBC

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kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

OwlFancier posted:

If labour end up C&S with the SNP I'd predict extending the franchise to 16, including for the brexit vote, and then another election the minute the SNP vote against anything in the manifesto.

I don't think a formal C&S deal will be done in the event of a hung parliament and Labour would probably be allowed to run as a minority on a case by case basis - which does kind of suck with the FTPA but I doubt the other minority parties will be much of a mood to repeal it to allow Labour the chance to call an election a la Wilson to escape minority status.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

RockyB posted:

Gibbo.

Woke up, 500,000 tweets and still no denial in the mainstream media, I'm getting worried now guys

BBC Breaking News: Gibbo is full of shite mate remember that time he said dogs can't look up total loving bellend

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

CyberPingu posted:

Can someone explain how devolved powers work. E.g how much of Labours awesome plan to save the country would apply to Scotland if the SNP or whoever are in charge?

Basically devolved administration's get money representing the increase in public spending in England on area under the devolved competencies of the regional governments but are not bound to spend it according to how it is spent in England - so for example here in NI things like Labours transport and education policies won't apply as these matters are devolved so the executive receives money proportional to how much is being spent in England but can spend it as they see fit.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

I think you can simultaneously believe that the attempt to discredit the leak is being driven to draw a line between Corbyn and Russia for propoganda purposes and also that the providence of the leak does raise some questions (boosted by burner accounts on obscure German language sites simultaneously as being reposted by a user with the same name as the Reddit poster on a conspiracy news site where they also shared an anti-impeachment article with Labour aligned sources saying it was anonymously emailed to them from an address that did not reply)

Doesn't say anything about the veracity of the document itself of course

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

It's unpatriotic to immediately jump to the CIA when we have our own domestic incompetent spy agency with a history of sticking it's dick into the affairs of other countries imo

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

https://twitter.com/UniteunionNI/status/1201592131233730560?s=19

Means we have the Royal College of Nursing (who've started industrial action), Unite, Unison (who where on strike today) and NIPSA (Northern Ireland's largest trade union going on all out strike on the 18th) all teaming up for rolling industrial action all through December over NHS pay.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

PowerBeard posted:

We might have you beat for weird Pre-Christmas Elections. Right now in (Southern) Ireland, we are having a Vote of No Confidence for the Housing Minister. If he is voted out, it would lead to a unsupported Government and a General Election...

Which would have to be before Christmas.

A Goon can dream!

[EDIT]: 56 to 53 in Favour, looks like the current government dodged a bullet.

Even if Murphy got non-con FG would probably have huffed and puffed and just put down a confidence motion in the government and got FF to back them on that because Martin has been pretty clear he didnt care about this vote and he doesn't really want an election until after Easter (and any enthusiasm FG had for an early election evaporated with the byelections).

In summation Ireland will have an election sometime next year when FF and FG politely agree that maybe they should have a vote now sure it's the done thing

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

New Statesmen coming out with their recommendation and breaking with their endorsement of Labour at the last two elections to endorse no party, saying they can't endorse Labour because of Corbyn and anti-semitism, but urge people to vote against Johnson and for... Jess Phillips

Some serious brain spiders

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

sebzilla posted:

So.

If we get a hung parliament but the Tories are still the largest party, do they get a go at passing a Queen's Speech as a minority government, even if there's a viable Labour/SNP thing oven ready to put in the microwave?

Technically they can - there's precedent for it with Baldwin's failed Kings Speech in 1924. The Tories have already indicated they would look to table a speech on December 19th and incumbency means they get first crack at it by convention (Brown could have done the same in 2010 if he wanted but ultimate ceded to the Tories to some criticism).

Usually people try to avoid actually losing the vote to not look like a total pillock but if Labour goes down the path of no formal agreements let the minority parties do what they want the Tories could justify sticking more closely to convention (for once) as no written agreement for an alternative government is in place.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012


Meaney was a stickie for a good while, as in a member of the explicitly Marxist Official Sinn Fein (now the Workers Party) who's president the US tried to extradite for being invovled in smuggling North Korean manufactured counterfeit US bank notes.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Trickjaw posted:

Give a dog a bone, is he good or bad?

the workers party where like the default socialist option for dubs so yes meaney is a good lad - the NK thing is just to demonstrate they where proper commies which is a rare thing in ireland

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

marktheando posted:

Actually James McAvoy is 40 so John Boyega is the only big British acting star under 40 who isn't posh.

Daniel Kaluuya and Taron Egerton are other working class actors I can think of who've "made it big" - there's a couple of others who are on the verge like Jack O'Connell and Aneurin Barnard who've picked up awards but haven't quite landed that big role to push them into Hollywood territory yet

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

marktheando posted:

Oh I assumed Taron Egerton was posh because of his silly name.

Can You Tell If These Names Are Posh or Just Welsh

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Angepain posted:

I'm currently putting together my personal list of constituencies to keep an eye on during the results, if anyone has any suggestions for constituencies that are interesting or generally might be gained or lost by a thread favourite/enemy/meme let me know. here's my list so far, which may be skewed toward my own narrow interests:

Bolsover - Dennis Skinner
Brighton Pavillion - Caroline Lucas (pretty safe now but you always know it's past time for bed when this seat gets called)
Chingford and Woodford Green - IDS
Cities of London and Westminster - Chuka Umunna
East Dunbartonshire - Jo Swinson
Edinburgh South West - Joanna Cherry (she'll probably win this one and her main opposition is a Tory, but I'm keeping an eye regardless)
Glasgow South - Johann Lamont (labour terf wings is endorsing)
Ilford South - watch Mike Gapes lose
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath - expelled SNP candidate Neale Hanvey vs. labour
Richmond Park - I'm just staggered that zac goldsmith still has a political career in tyool 2019, even with a 2017 majority of 45 people
Stirling - Conservative majority of 148 in 2017
Uxbridge and South Ruislip - some guy named Boris, seems like a bit of an arse, i'm sure the electorate will do the sensible thing and vote for his opponent

The seat to watch in Northern Ireland is definately Belfast North where DUP leader in the commons Nigel Dodds is fighting for his life against Sinn Fein's John Finucane after the SDLP withdrew from the running there (combined SF + SDLP votes here in the last election where within 23 votes of Dodds total).

Also likely to see the DUP lose Belfast South and Belfast East remains Alliances best bet to pick up a seat, even though they where 20% behind at the last election the only polling we've got has suggested a surge in support that could flip it to them.

Cumulitively that would see the DUP driven out of Belfast where they have steadily held at least one seat since 1979

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

joedevola posted:

I changed my constituency to North Belfast a few days before the cut off specifically for this reason. Still haven't got my card or even an email to say that it's gone through.

Did you do it online or the old way? I was talking to someone who switched to Belfast South whos being grilled for utility bills and other info as a late registration, I think cause he moved between elections and the previous occupant was registered.

Might be worth your while going down to the Electoral Office on Church Street to get a straight answer.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012


video production is my passion

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

forkboy84 posted:

The Guardian has endorsed the Liberals and Lib Dems far more than they've endorsed Labour FYI

I mean not really



And the explicitly said vote Labour the last two elections - with some support for tactical lib dem voting in seats where they where second place to the Tories only

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

OwlFancier posted:

Lol did we really have february and october elections in 1974?

Couldn't we have had something else instead?

Last labour minority government post election back when you could call an election a few months later to get that sweet sweet majority.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012


quote:

Although that would give Mr Johnson a majority of 28, the poll’s range of possible outcomes stretches from 367 Tory seats to only 311. “Based on the model we cannot rule out a hung parliament,” Anthony Wells, YouGov’s director of political research, said.

Too tight to mention

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

£94 seems oddly specific

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Is... is this the Independent's "endorsement"

quote:

How you vote is your choice, but we sympathise with those who will pick a party in an effort to deny Boris Johnson a majority

...

What, then, is the alternative to this blind Brexit? If sufficient numbers vote tactically, it is still possible that Mr Johnson wins the most seats but fails to secure a majority of MPs. A hung parliament would certainly be unpredictable. Could his government last? Would Mr Corbyn be able to seize his chance?

When the two main parties have become so extreme, a minority government – held in check by the need to seek support – is no bad option. Labour’s economic policies, for instance, could be tempered by the Liberal Democrats, whose manifesto promises both to do more for the poor and to be more fiscally responsible. Would Mr Corbyn end up in No 10? Possibly, but we can be sure that his full economic agenda could not get through parliament.

...

Only one party slogan will live long in the memory: “Get Brexit Done” is the most blatant untruth in an election that has changed the game. The Brexit deadline of 31 January would be followed by the end of the transition period, scheduled to be 31 December. The 11 months in between will be dominated by Brexit, and another countdown to another self-inflicted moment of crisis.

Those who do not want to see this happen should cast their vote accordingly, taking into account the tactical situation in their constituency. Should Mr Johnson win his majority, it would be a victory for a misleading slogan, for untruth on Brexit, and for populism.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/election-final-say-brexit-second-eu-referendum-nhs-a9240966.html

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

I see the LibDems voting down a BoJo queens speech, which may very well happen, but refusing to vote actively for a Labour one - probably abstention - meaning Labour would need Lab + SNP + Green + PC (+SDLP+APNI depending what happens) to be greater than Tories + DUP (who wont vote for a Boris government but absolutely aint gonna vote for Corbyn) to get a minority government past its first hurdle.

I mean very technically in the case of failure we would immediately go to a new election but considering the giant ticking Brexit clock it's obvious the LibDems are banking on the pressing need to form a government leading to some kind of informateur/formateur variant to lead all party discussions for a limited referendum only programme of government/queens speech

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Charlz Guybon posted:

How fast do the results come in?

I'm in Korea, so this works out well for me. 10pm is 7am here.

You get a small clutch of seats rushing to declare first before midnight but first proper batch of results about 1am-ish GMT

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

I don't vote till like 9pm because I like looking at the turnout figures on the wee board

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Noon turnouts in the high teens - low 20%s in Norn Iron battleground constituencies.

Possibly trending to high 60s to low 70s by poll close if previous patterns hold, last election was about 66%

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Fair few in my polling station at 8pm and turnout was sitting at 40% at 5pm which is unseasonably high (I'm in an SF/SDLP hypermarginal so looks like people fired up ate bit)

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Thom12255 posted:

Can the Queen vote too?

Yes but she doesn't - members of the house of lords are not allowed to though

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

gently caress

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

gently caress big john is not pleased

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Ill settle for Dodds getting turfed

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Endorph posted:

tactical voting is the biggest loving con in the world

fptp is in fact bad

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Worst timeline: Tory majority but also Unionists turn out in record number and DUP + UUP vote share increases

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Drone_Fragger posted:

Indeed, because once Ireland reunifies, which with Boris's deal it 100% will, they won't exist as a party.

lol if you dont think the DUP will still rule over separatist Antrim

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

The DUP will control Antrim until all life dies which will probably be like what 20 years tops

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

drat Exit poll has Piddock losing her seat

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

If you have actually been paying attention to NI politics the loyalists loving despise BoJo with a burning passion that packed out halls with screams of BETRAYAL and promises of widespread civil disobedience - the Tories have leaped up the Unionist poo poo list to levels not seen since the Anglo Irish agreement days and are probably current higher than Fenians and the pope

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Jose posted:

why do youthink this matters

Chances of restarting devolution significantly increase and Unionists are politically animated like nationalists where in 2017, loyalist pressure on the DUP to distance themselves from the Tories will be sharp.

An aggregated unionist voting bloc turning out in higher and higher numbers with a new sense of purpose is a reversal of trends where turnouts are traditionally depressed among working class unionist voters

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Well the election in NI went alright

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kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

jacksbrat posted:

The one glimmer of solace.

Do you reckon there will be a border poll before the GFA gets shat on by Joris?

Who knows - there's talks to restart devolution and considering Alliance biting at the DUP in their seats and SF getting some pretty spooky swings out west (losing 8-9% in solid seats and getting obliterated in Foyle) I think there may be some incentive to evade an election in Feb/March which is what is being talked about at the minute.

Will see but I'm imagining SF may go a little bit quite on border poll now and focus on devolution must be restored to prevent Tory direct rule for the imminent future.

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