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dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

https://twitter.com/hamiarrington/status/1200935878715215874

https://twitter.com/thepeachcobler/status/1200937304560480256

https://twitter.com/MLeeJr/status/1200943440038633473

dirty shrimp money fucked around with this message at 02:15 on Dec 1, 2019

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dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001


https://twitter.com/WatwoodJesusDo_/status/1200966103142416385

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

https://twitter.com/gmraynor/status/1200934431453671424

Dabo can stop that whining. Just be glad you're inside the cartel and can run the table on a AAC-level schedule and cruise into the playoff.

dirty shrimp money fucked around with this message at 07:56 on Dec 1, 2019

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

Zwabu posted:

How far in advance are team's schedules set?

For top end teams like Clemson, 15 to 20 years in advance.

But then, strength of schedule is irrelevant if you go undefeated.

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

Adun posted:

Interesting thought exercise though if there were 5 P5 undefeated conference champions this year who would get left out?

Undefeated LSU
Undefeated Ohio State
Undefeated Clemson
Undefeated Oklahoma
Undefeated Utah

Out of those Clemson would have by far the weakest schedule?

That decision would come down to ratings draw rather than strength of schedule, and Utah is left out.

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

I don't think Joe Burrow will ever have to pay for a drink in the state of Louisiana

https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/1200954229453721600

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

Finally caught the moon poll up. I even have projections for next week's games and the major bowls (next post).

Congrats? to Akron for winning the inverse national championship:

pre:
Delta	Team			Record	Score			Conferences by Score		
-	1. Ohio State		12-0	4.8622			1. Big 10		1.0193	
-	2. Clemson		12-0	4.0476			2. SEC			0.9701	
-	3. LSU			12-0	3.8040			3. Big 12		0.6418	
-	4. Georgia		11-1	3.4203			4. ACC			0.4791	
+2	5. Wisconsin		10-2	2.8233			5. American		0.2359	
+4	6. Utah			11-1	2.7784			6. Pac 12		0.1908	
+6	7. Notre Dame		10-2	2.6180			7. Mountain West	-0.0687	
-3	8. Penn State		10-2	2.5788			8. Sun Belt		-0.2655	
-3	9. Alabama		10-2	2.4697			9. Conference USA	-0.3581	
+2	10. Florida		10-2	2.4210			10. MAC			-0.4950	
+5	11. Baylor		11-1	2.3605					
+3	12. Oklahoma		11-1	2.3450					
-5	13. Oregon		10-2	2.2897			Median Team	0.1434	Michigan State
+5	14. Auburn		9-3	2.1159			
+3	15. Memphis		11-1	1.9645					
+1	16. Iowa		9-3	1.9411					
-8	17. Cincinnati		10-2	1.8694					
-7	18. Michigan		9-3	1.8204					
+1	19. Appalachian State	11-1	1.7734					
-6	20. Minnesota		10-2	1.7417					
+2	21. Boise State		11-1	1.6726					
+4	22. Florida Atlantic	9-3	1.5646					
+2	23. Air Force		10-2	1.5663					
+16	24. Navy		9-2	1.5058					
-1	25. Louisiana-Lafayette	10-2	1.4817					
								
-2	121. Bowling Green	3-9	-1.4320					
-4	122. Texas State	3-9	-1.6108					
+3	123. South Alabama	2-10	-1.7808					
-3	124. Connecticut	2-10	-1.7925					
-	125. New Mexico State	2-10	-1.8957					
-3	126. New Mexico		2-10	-1.9456					
-	127. Old Dominion	1-11	-2.2478					
+1	128. Massachusetts	1-11	-2.5935					
-1	129. UTEP		1-11	-2.7531					
-	130. Akron		0-12	-3.3945					



pre:

Delta	Team			Rec	Score
+11	26. Virginia		9-3	1.4739
-6	27. SMU			10-2	1.2603
+8	28. UCF			9-3	1.0962
+20	29. Kansas State	8-4	1.0742
-2	30. San Diego State	9-3	0.9517
-	31. Louisiana Tech	9-3	0.9417
+27	32. Arizona State	7-5	0.9048
-	33. Wake Forest		8-4	0.8711
-7	34. Oklahoma State	8-4	0.8551
-6	35. Indiana		8-4	0.8538
-4	36. Virginia Tech	8-4	0.7641
+5	37. Texas		7-5	0.7639
+8	38. USC			8-4	0.7638
-1	39. Washington		7-5	0.7403
+12	40. UAB			9-3	0.6947
+26	41. Kentucky		7-5	0.6355
+2	42. Iowa State		7-5	0.6194
-2	43. Temple		8-4	0.5633
+19	44. California		7-5	0.5659
-23	45. Texas A&M		7-5	0.4896
+22	46. Tennessee		7-5	0.4765
+8	47. Central Michigan	8-4	0.4564
-	48. Louisville		7-5	0.4295
-4	49. Marshall		8-4	0.4274
Delta	Team			Rec	Score
+16	50. Hawaii		9-4	0.4104
-12	51. BYU			7-5	0.3935
+19	52. Western Kentucky	8-4	0.3886
-3	53. Georgia Southern	7-5	0.3553
-24	54. Miami (FL)		6-6	0.3134
+20	55. Buffalo		7-5	0.3109
-21	56. Pittsburgh		7-5	0.3036
+22	57. North Carolina	6-6	0.3023
-11	58. Western Michigan	7-5	0.2640
-25	59. Illinois		6-6	0.2390
-2	60. Liberty		7-5	0.2378
-	61. Boston College	6-6	0.1886
+19	62. Mississippi State	6-6	0.1842
-6	63. Wyoming		7-5	0.1753
-11	64. Utah State		7-5	0.1482
+22	65. Michigan State	6-6	0.1434
-15	66. Miami (OH)		7-5	0.1335
+18	67. UNC Charlotte	7-5	0.0993
+5	68. Missouri		6-6	0.0300
-13	69. Washington State	6-6	0.0237
-16	70. Florida State	6-6	-0.0007
-28	71. Southern Miss	7-5	-0.0242
-10	72. Arkansas State	7-5	-0.0239
+24	73. Kent State		6-6	-0.0505
-	74. Georgia State	7-5	-0.0877
Delta	Team			Rec	Score
+1	75. Syracuse		5-7	-0.0903
-7	76. Nevada		7-5	-0.0993
-13	77. Oregon State	5-7	-0.1363
+10	78. Nebraska		5-7	-0.1461
-14	79. TCU			5-7	-0.1577
+2	80. Colorado		5-7	-0.2132
+2	81. West Virginia	5-7	-0.2210
+31	82. Ohio U		6-6	-0.2696
-23	83. Tulane		6-6	-0.2849
+5	84. Eastern Michigan	6-6	-0.2953
+8	85. Duke		5-7	-0.2994
-2	86. South Carolina	4-8	-0.3208
-15	87. Texas Tech		4-8	-0.3385
+8	88. Florida Intl	6-6	-0.3899
+2	89. Ole Miss		4-8	-0.3926
-	90. UCLA		4-8	-0.4444
+7	91. Ball State		5-7	-0.4557
-12	92. Stanford		4-8	-0.4621
-7	93. Purdue		4-8	-0.4644
-16	94. Army		5-7	-0.4793
+6	95. San Jose State	5-7	-0.5411
-26	96. Toledo		6-6	-0.5495
+5	97. Louisiana-Monroe	5-7	-0.6166
-3	98. Arizona		4-8	-0.6266
-5	99. Maryland		3-9	-0.6394
Delta	Team			Rec	Score
+15	100. Northwestern	3-9	-0.6371
+11	101. Vanderbilt		3-9	-0.6496
-10	102. South Florida	4-8	-0.6791
-	103. Northern Illinois	5-7	-0.6862
+10	104. Georgia Tech	3-9	-0.7383
+11	105. Middle Tennessee	4-8	-0.7582
+3	106. Houston		4-8	-0.7748
-30	107. Troy		5-7	-0.8011
+2	108. Coastal Carolina	5-7	-0.8142
-3	109. Rutgers		2-10	-0.8173
-10	110. NC State		4-8	-0.8235
-12	111. Fresno State	4-8	-0.8503
-4	112. Tulsa		4-8	-0.8776
-9	113. Kansas		3-9	-0.8860
+6	114. East Carolina	4-8	-1.0254
+2	115. Arkansas		2-10	-1.0661
+6	116. Rice		3-9	-1.1117
+7	117. UNLV		4-8	-1.1235
-13	118. UTSA		4-8	-1.1303
-12	119. Colorado State	4-8	-1.1920
-9	120. North Texas	4-8	-1.2712

dirty shrimp money fucked around with this message at 19:34 on Dec 3, 2019

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

I think I've figured out a way to at least give odds, so I'm trying some predictions for this week -

pre:
ACC	Clemson 	vs	Virginia 	Clemson	89%
Big 10	Ohio State	vs	Wisconsin	Ohio State 95%
Big 12	Baylor		vs 	Oklahoma	Oklahoma 75%
SEC	Georgia		vs	LSU		LSU 73%
Pac 12	Oregon		vs	Utah		Utah 74%

AAC	Cincinnati	@	Memphis		Memphis 84%
CUSA	Florida Atl	H	UAB		UAB 51%
MAC	Central Mich	vs	Miami-Ohio	CMU 91%
MWC	Boise State	H	Hawaii		Boise 80%
SunBelt	App State	H	Louisiana	App 65%

	Army		vs	Navy		Navy 75%

I ran these through an RNG for wins and losses.  I got upsets for Baylor and Army, which doesn't mean much 
for the playoff - the Georgia loss means Utah leaps them and gets #4.  

So, a projected final moon poll - 
Team			Record	
1. Ohio State		13-0
2. Clemson		13-0
3. LSU			13-0
4. Utah			12-1
5. Georgia		11-2
6. Notre Dame		10-2
7. Penn State		10-2
8. Alabama		10-2
9. Baylor		12-1
10. Florida		10-2
11. Wisconsin		10-3
12. Oklahoma		11-2
13. Auburn		9-3
14. Oregon		10-3
15. Memphis		12-1
16. Michigan		9-3
17. Iowa		9-3
18. Appalachian State	12-1
19. Boise State		12-1
20. Minnesota		10-2
21. Florida Atlantic	10-3
22. Navy		10-2
23. Cincinnati		10-3
24. Air Force		10-2
25. SMU			10-2



CFP	Ohio State vs Utah
CFP	Clemson vs LSU

Rose	Wisconsin 	vs Oregon
Orange	Alabama 	vs Virginia
Sugar	Baylor 		vs Georgia
Cotton	Oklahoma 	vs Memphis

dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

Metapod posted:

Hmmm notre dame at 7 gotta say your model is bad

A computer poll can't well handle a team with a ton of wins and one ugly as hell loss.

Maybe the BCS wasn't so bad after all.

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dirty shrimp money
Jan 8, 2001

Rad Valtar posted:

Also if Utah wins boy is the committee going to have a hell of a time picking between them and the Big 12 champion. It's going to be fun to watch.

Assuming Georgia loses. If they beat LSU it’s over for both.

I’m rooting for Utah. They were nobodies in the Mountain West ten years ago, that’d be fun to see them complete climbing the ladder. ESPN is going to demand Oklahoma though.

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