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Ches Neckbeard
Dec 3, 2005

You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!

JIZZ DENOUEMENT posted:

Tanking can work exquisitely.

We just haven’t seen it thrive in practice because there are independent actors who all have incentives to prevent the tank.

Over two years a team could trade away/release their offensive talent while stockpiling future draft picks and a ton of defensive talent.

A team built like that has a shot at a top 5 pick the following draft, plus a bunch of draft capital to trade if necessary. If that team grabs a good QB, some good OL, and a decent RB, then baby you got a stew going.

Which NFL tank has worked out?

Browns: not looking great
Raiders: to early but so far continued mediocrity
Dolphins: just started
Colts: Luck died. Confirmed failure

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Kalli
Jun 2, 2001



Colts worked. They went to the playoffs 3 straight years including an AFC Championship game.

Ches Neckbeard
Dec 3, 2005

You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!
and then Luck died because they tanked. The reason they tanked retired in his prime. That's a failure.

Impossibly Perfect Sphere
Nov 6, 2002

They wasted Luanne on Lucky!

She could of have been so much more but the writers just didn't care!

Ches Neckbeard posted:

and then Luck died because they tanked. The reason they tanked retired in his prime. That's a failure.

That's a dumb and pretty dishonest argument. Tanking didn't cause his injuries. Failure to successfully address the offensive line caused it, which is entirely independent of the tank. And who knows, maybe Luck was always destined to retire early.

Also, imagine Baker Mayfield went to three conference championship in a row, you and every Browns fans in here certainly wouldn't consider that a failure.

Sour Diesel
Jan 30, 2010

Kalli posted:

Colts worked. They went to the playoffs 3 straight years including an AFC Championship game.

the AFCS was extreme dogshit when Luck started out so making the playoffs wasnt exactly hard

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

Kalli posted:

Colts worked. They went to the playoffs 3 straight years including an AFC Championship game.

That was a pretty unique situation though, and it's also questionable how much tanking they actually did. That team was hosed without Peyton and they decided to just ride it out for a year to get his replacement rather than trying for a very marginal improvemeny immediately. Not quite the same as these multi-year tank jobs where they ship off every good player.

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







Panthers absolutely tanked in 2010 and ended up with Cam.

Ches Neckbeard
Dec 3, 2005

You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!

Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:

That's a dumb and pretty dishonest argument. Tanking didn't cause his injuries. Failure to successfully address the offensive line caused it, which is entirely independent of the tank. And who knows, maybe Luck was always destined to retire early.

Also, imagine Baker Mayfield went to three conference championship in a row, you and every Browns fans in here certainly wouldn't consider that a failure.

The sole reason the Colts tanked was to get Luck, he retired at 30 and they suck again. They drafted a can't miss sure fire franchise QB that should have them set for 15 years or more and got 5ish seasons.

The tank failed.

Despera
Jun 6, 2011
Rg3 is starting in 2019. Luck is not. Dan Snyder wins again.

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

FizFashizzle posted:

Panthers absolutely tanked in 2010 and ended up with Cam.

They also fired Fox at the end of the year. And the Colts fired Caldwell in 2011. So if you're a coach the incentive to tank sure isn't there even in the apparently best cases.

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!

Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:

Also, imagine Baker Mayfield went to three conference championship in a row, you and every Browns fans in here certainly wouldn't consider that a failure.

They didn't go to three, but how do Jets fans feel about Mark Sanchez?

I really have no point here, I just exist as the only non-Jets fan to remind people that Mark Sanchez quarterbacked a team to two AFC Championship games.

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret
The Colts were very much a success in the short term, which eventually hosed up everything in the long term due to personality bullshit from the front office.

I know I did a post on this somewhere before, but their 2012 draft was really good aside from just Andrew Luck. They also got T.Y. Hilton, who started off as just a decent complimentary pick for a 3rd round guy nobody really knew of. They also grabbed both Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen at tight end. Fleener missed a bunch of games and basically fell behind Allen on the depth chart, in part because Allen was a more traditional blocking type tight end who even played fullback a bit in Bruce Arians system that year. They drafted running back Vick Ballard, who was their starter the back half of the season and wasn't flashy (Something like 800 rushing yards and sub-4 YPC), but looked to be a solid complimentary piece. They also overpaid for a bunch of mediocre free agents on both sides of the ball (Guys like Donnie Avery and Tom Zbikowski), but none of them were signed to albatross contracts that hosed over the team (Then, like now, they had tons of cap space) and they were generally improvements over whatever random 6th round picks and UDFAs that they had used the year or two previously. They also traded for Vontae Davis, who went to a few Pro Bowls and was solid for a while.

Obviously, Luck was the main engine that made this all work, but after the 2012 season, the Colts looked to be very solid, and it was expected that all of those other guys would be contributors going forward. Hilton would quickly exceed all expectations, filling in nicely as the team's top receiver when Reggie Wayne got hurt in 2013, but none of the rest would work out. Fleener turned out to be wildly inconsistent, and never developed the rapport he had with Luck in college. Allen and Ballard both got hurt on opening day in 2013 and went out for the season. Allen was never really the same in subsequent years, while Ballard never played again. Their absence lead to the Trent Richardson trade, which was turned out to be a massive failure.

All of this is because Ryan Grigson got full of himself and hosed up royally after 2012. They never changed their approach to free agency, generally signing older guys for slightly over value rather than getting true impact players. Some worked out, like Mike Adams, but then you had the likes of Darius Heyward-Bey; Starting WR, the ghost of Andre Johnson, and forcing Richardson into a starting role. And their drafting turned awful. Rather than continuing to build a full team around Luck, namely on the offensive line, Grigson started going after project pass rushers, receivers the team really didn't need like Donte Moncrief and Philip Dorsett.

The Colts 2012 draft and offseason is almost the ideal way to come out of a terrible season, even if you take Luck out as quarterback since they drafted 4 other guys who made significant contributions on offense and looked to be pieces for the future. But Grigson felt the team was always just one or two players away from winning a Super Bowl, and thought his project players (Bjorn Werner) and free agents (Erik Walden) would be the final pieces. They didn't continue to address the core aspects of the team, namely offensive line in a meaningful way, and assumed that any random guys from University of Miami or Stanford would suffice (Hi there, Griff Whalen). Had their drafts and free agencies not been generally awful after 2012, particularly in 2013-14 before Luck really started getting beaten up, things likely would have played out very differently...

tl;dr: gently caress you, Ryan Grigson!

JIZZ DENOUEMENT
Oct 3, 2012

STRIKE!

Ches Neckbeard posted:

and then Luck died because they tanked. The reason they tanked retired in his prime. That's a failure.

No it isn’t a failure you doofus.

“Got the first overall and drafted the most desirable QB prospect since Peyton Manning” isn’t a failure. They went to the playoffs a bunch because of Luck.

Further, tanking isn’t what caused Luck to get injured. It was a relentless FO dedication to not getting him the offensive line help he needed. That’s completely independent of the initial tank to get Luck in the first place.

Also, lol at the idea that tanking “only works in the NBA”. The sport that has a lottery for top picks is worse for tanking than the nfl which does not have a lottery. On top of that, the roster size and talent distribution of the NFL is such that top picks are always useful. Compare that to the NBA where it’s often a 1-2 player draft, if that.

really queer Christmas
Apr 22, 2014

In almost every case I can think of a tank working was when the franchise had no intention of tanking and just had a bad enough year to clean house or had a good core that died to injuries which allowed good draft picks to revitalize the team.

YOLOsubmarine
Oct 19, 2004

When asked which Pokemon he evolved into, Kamara pauses.

"Motherfucking, what's that big dragon shit? That orange motherfucker. Charizard."

JIZZ DENOUEMENT posted:

No it isn’t a failure you doofus.

“Got the first overall and drafted the most desirable QB prospect since Peyton Manning” isn’t a failure. They went to the playoffs a bunch because of Luck.

Further, tanking isn’t what caused Luck to get injured. It was a relentless FO dedication to not getting him the offensive line help he needed. That’s completely independent of the initial tank to get Luck in the first place.

Also, lol at the idea that tanking “only works in the NBA”. The sport that has a lottery for top picks is worse for tanking than the nfl which does not have a lottery. On top of that, the roster size and talent distribution of the NFL is such that top picks are always useful. Compare that to the NBA where it’s often a 1-2 player draft, if that.

Well, the reason tanking generally fails is that your organization has to be fairly dysfunctional to get to the point that it's worth trying and committing to being really lovely doesn't make it less dysfunctional based on the apparent evidence. So sure, they got Luck, then they brought in a front office that got him killed because you can't tank your way to a good GM and coach.

Ches Neckbeard
Dec 3, 2005

You're all garbage, back up the truck BACK IT UP!

JIZZ DENOUEMENT posted:

No it isn’t a failure you doofus.

“Got the first overall and drafted the most desirable QB prospect since Peyton Manning” isn’t a failure. They went to the playoffs a bunch because of Luck.

Tanking is supposed to lead to long term success. We're talking about an era where a 15 year career for a top tier QB is normal. They had brief success and lost their entire reason they tanked.

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!

really queer Christmas posted:

In almost every case I can think of a tank working was when the franchise had no intention of tanking and just had a bad enough year to clean house or had a good core that died to injuries which allowed good draft picks to revitalize the team.

If we're thinking of all sports I guess a multi-year tank worked for the Astros (plus a lot of cheating as we found out later).

Maybe the Penguins getting Crosby and Malkin?

JIZZ DENOUEMENT
Oct 3, 2012

STRIKE!

YOLOsubmarine posted:

They also fired Fox at the end of the year. And the Colts fired Caldwell in 2011. So if you're a coach the incentive to tank sure isn't there even in the apparently best cases.

Yeah, the incentives of different actors is the difficulty with tanking. But that’s not an argument against the hypothetical returns from tanking.

More teams should do the Seahawks or Patriots thing where the GM and HC are effectively one decision making body. Go to ownership and have the GM and HC tell ownership “it’s going to suck really bad for two years but then we will have the opportunity to make good playoff runs”.

JIZZ DENOUEMENT
Oct 3, 2012

STRIKE!
Also lol I just remembered the Trent Richardson trade.

Ehud
Sep 19, 2003

football.

The Colts didn't even intentionally tank.

They lucked into their terrible record when Peyton Manning's neck surgery recovery didn't go as expected and he missed the entire season.

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret
Also Polian has drafted like rear end for the few years prior, so peak Peyton kept them with double digit wins as the team faltered. 2010 saw them get banged up and while they still went 10-6, it involved things like the Blair White project, Javarris “Edge’s Cousin” James, Dominic Rhodes Mk. III, and the death of Austin Collie and they weren’t nearly the machine they had been in years prior. Taking Peyton out of that and inserting the corpse of Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter got 2011.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

What in God's name is your avatar from?

Barudak
May 7, 2007

Tanking in the NFL has less promise and guarantee of return so using tanking as a strategy has not been shown to be a sure-fire improvement. To be honest good teams still seem pretty good year in and out even without tanking so the placement of the picks isnt as valuable as you might think.

fartknocker
Oct 28, 2012


Damn it, this always happens. I think I'm gonna score, and then I never score. It's not fair.



Wedge Regret

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

What in God's name is your avatar from?

American Dad, like a 1:45 into this

https://youtu.be/TSEemaX8MuE

wyoak
Feb 14, 2005

a glass case of emotion

Fallen Rib
I’m not even sure any front offices have attempted a full on tank in the way the recent Browns and Dolphins have so the jury is kinda out still

hifi
Jul 25, 2012

Ehud posted:

The Colts didn't even intentionally tank.

They lucked into their terrible record when Peyton Manning's neck surgery recovery didn't go as expected and he missed the entire season.

yeah. curtis painter was a real winner

Sour Diesel
Jan 30, 2010

hifi posted:

yeah. curtis painter was a real winner

yea they should've just grabbed one of those good qbs that are readily available instead of rolling with their backup

defaultluser
Jan 13, 2007

The person can drink sake for the following five reasons. First of all, for the national holiday. Moreover, it fills with the nectar. Finally, for reasons. Next, to heal the dryness of the place. After that, to refuse the future
Fun Shoe

If your goal is to roast the people inside under the Vegas August sun, then Mission Accomplished.

Free Sauna with every ticket?

Shinji2015
Aug 31, 2007
Keen on the hygiene and on the mission like a super technician.

This is loving adorable.

Sono
Apr 9, 2008




Kalli posted:

on top of that, look at how many former Dolphins are good now after leaving Adam Gase.

Maybe just get rid of bad coaches / GM's and keep your good players?

Yes, but how many of them are rich as gently caress?

Elephanthead
Sep 11, 2008


Toilet Rascal
The colts tank failed because of Chuck Pagano is terrible see bears.

corn on the cop
Oct 12, 2012

Break what must be broken, once for all, that's all, and take the suffering on oneself.

― Corey Dostoyevsky
Texans-Bills seems like a fun first-round tilt.

Kurgarra Queen
Jun 11, 2008

GIVE ME MORE
SUPER BOWL
WINS

corn on the cop posted:

Texans-Bills seems like a fun first-round tilt.
All I want is for the Bills to score more than 3 points, so whose ready for the final score to be 9-6 Texans?

Kawalimus
Jan 17, 2008

Better Living Through Birding And Pessimism
Hope the Bills could win. We have had Houston play here in the playoffs before. But never the Bills. So that would be fun to see. And also a nice test, since I think of all the teams this year they did the best job slowing down Lamar Jackson.

Mystic Stylez
Dec 19, 2009

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1209821153570758656



lol

Minshew is just :discourse:

Bigass Moth
Mar 6, 2004

I joined the #RXT REVOLUTION.
:boom:
he knows...
Marshawn Lynch hall of fame yes or no?

Grittybeard
Mar 29, 2010

Bad, very bad!

Bigass Moth posted:

Marshawn Lynch hall of fame yes or no?

Sadly probably not, his counting stats aren't overwhelming. But behind that half the voters are idiots who care about the whole not talking to the press thing and will use that to pretend he wasn't a team player or something.

But in our hearts he is a hall of famer.

Pops Mgee
Aug 20, 2009

People all over the world,
Join Hands,
Start the Love Train!
Merry Christmas y’all
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syJCTJCFyE8

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







https://twitter.com/JimmyJohnson/status/1209869380248592384?s=20

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Paint Crop Pro
Mar 22, 2007

Find someone who values you like Rick Spielman values 7th round picks.



Grittybeard posted:

Sadly probably not, his counting stats aren't overwhelming. But behind that half the voters are idiots who care about the whole not talking to the press thing and will use that to pretend he wasn't a team player or something.

But in our hearts he is a hall of famer.

Good peak, not enough sustainability, probably hall of very good.

Doesn't really have a peak that is above Adrian Peterson, or the eternal Frank Gore career.

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