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Yeah, the provincial authorities tried to cover it up but then Beijing yelled at them hard enough that they stopped covering it up They also sequenced the thing so now they have a test. The only facility in China capable of the test is in Wuhan, luckily. So that was responsible for the huge increase
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Jan 22, 2020 23:09
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Usually the real complicated dealios have more semantics than just "it's a graph and edges are like ports and stuff". They model the whole spatial effects. The biggest dealios basically look like diffusion limited aggregation in affected peeps, with the aggregations in cities
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Jan 25, 2020 04:51
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WHO estimate of R0 is 1.5 to 2.5. I think it's just one the upper end of scale. Incubation of 9 days instead of the 4 days the scary R0 paper changes math quite a lot
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Jan 25, 2020 06:07
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My understanding of that episode was they got successfully bullied into doing it because they don't really care that much, but this is basically their core function. Usual Chinese MO for Taiwan bullshit, but the modeling assumptions are guesses either way
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Jan 25, 2020 06:15
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Normal masks do little, N95 masks like for people doing contracting are about 85% effective for other coronaviruses. Add a face shield and get N99 or N99.7 (N100) masks and that goes up more. You need disposable N95 masks or disinfected reusable ones and you need a lot. Of course the space suits are 99.9% effective Health care peeps in Wuhan itself are hosed cuz they ran out of the ppe. That's where the rumors of the ppe not being effective come from. Don't reuse disposable ppe, try real hard not to run out of ppe bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 16:22 on Jan 25, 2020 |
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Jan 25, 2020 16:20
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Age distribution of fatal cases that the PRC govt has confirmed https://i.redd.it/ch0xjjzjsxc41.jpg
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Jan 25, 2020 16:34
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Number of peeps So far it looks comparable to a weaker SARS. SARS was 0.5% fatal in peeps 20-30 who didn't smoke and like 50% fatal in peeps 80-90 who smoked Young peeps might still have an ICU stay though bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 16:56 on Jan 25, 2020 |
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Jan 25, 2020 16:54
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Luckyellow posted:This is superb totally awesome!! It will solve two problems at once, Boomers and global climate change. Already posted it to the Boomer thread lol
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Jan 25, 2020 16:56
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Yeah, but it's like 100x, not 1.5x or something
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Jan 25, 2020 17:17
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95% confidence level depending upon model assumptions. Health care people can't do math, including epidemiologists lol. To have a frequentist estimate that takes into account the multiplicative uncertainties is real hard and you would get a properly absurdly wide 1.5 to 5 or whatever range after it I would guess
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Jan 25, 2020 17:24
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Yeah. You can shove the assumptions in the model properly and multiply out the error bars and poo poo but that will look real disappointing in the charts so peeps don't do it
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Jan 25, 2020 17:30
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They half-rear end the faking of the numbers, though, so I deffo wouldn't put it past them to just multiply everything by 1/5, in which case the histogram still looks the same
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Jan 25, 2020 17:58
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fruity no gay posted:
Pneumonia is just lungmelting in Greek
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Jan 25, 2020 17:59
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Really you want a full chained graphical model for one of these dealios but lol at peeps getting taught that and actually remembering it
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Jan 25, 2020 18:08
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They shut down the whole province. Some cities in Chongqing are on deck, travel restrictions in Beijing and Shanghai. Significant number cases in Guangdong province and Hong Kong
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Jan 25, 2020 18:24
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This was mainly cuz they dicked around for 3 months This one, they dicked around for 20 days only. Improvement!
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Jan 25, 2020 18:49
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So lopinavir / retonavir, which they use for AIDS, works great on SARS. Maybe it'll work for this one too, that doc in Shanghai was saying it Not a cure but 20x less acute respiratory distress, in SARS
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Jan 25, 2020 18:52
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You just gotta avoid running out of peepee
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Jan 25, 2020 19:11
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Yeah, reports of 6000% and up price markups in Zhejiang, Beijing, Shanghai. I see it's marked up 5x in Amazon rn People are selling used in Wuhan proper. This is a bad idea
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Jan 25, 2020 19:16
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The other thing is social unrest, which they got a lot tetchier about since the economy soured. They're cutting or reducing internet access to Wuhan intermittently and the censors are working on overdrive Remember, the ostensible ideology of the CCP is Maoist Marxist Leninism, which they have completely abandoned. However, it is still the case that in the curriculum you are allowed and encouraged to read books calling for revolution and  and poo poo. They have the contradictions of capitalism much harder over there by literally just adding in more contradictions by being hypercapitalist and stuffXi Jinping successfully gulaged both the hardline commies like Bo Xilai and the liberal reformers, but that just means he also gulaged most of the peeps with principles and the official iteration of the ideology right now is like a sort of murky... Be good! Patriotic! Cool stuff! bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 19:34 on Jan 25, 2020 |
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Jan 25, 2020 19:29
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I think there will be material political implications of it if it gets a foothold in the US, which it looks like it very well could. Possibly very directly: Republicans could lose the Senate majority by enough of them dying, Trump, Pence, McConnell might die, Bernie, Warren, Pelosi or Biden might die. They all meet 100x as many people as normal people. Ginsberg might die. But if enough old people die Republicans mostly break. There's this huge age disparity which would break the outsized effect of old people on politics. Even for young people, apparently people are spending significant time in ICU's an amount of time that looks to cost in the 100s of k's in the US. So it will break the finances of a material number of the old in a very short time (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 25, 2020 19:50
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It might destroy the Democrats, too, if Warren, Bernie, Biden, Pelosi, Ginsberg and some Dem senators die and the deaths are only concentrated in big cities. But in America old people and young people are opposed politically and with like 2 exceptions old people have all the power. Large events have consequences. Either way, the political landscape in 2024 looks radically different bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 00:38 on Jan 26, 2020 |
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Jan 26, 2020 00:34
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I would like to apologise to the thread for being a dipshit 6 hours ago Fever at 101. I live feet from SFO, lol
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Jan 26, 2020 07:11
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Yeah, the timing couldn't have been worse. It's the largest human migration
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Jan 26, 2020 08:03
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It could be about as deadly, it could be 100x as deadly. Difference between thousands and millions severely affected We've been continually been getting reports that about 10% of cases end up in the ICU, all told, including some young peeps who lived and recovered. The flu doesn't do that, but peeps from the PRC have a weird attitude about going to hospitals in the first place bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 15:35 on Jan 26, 2020 |
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Jan 26, 2020 15:30
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Hours, nowadays. Genome sequencing went down 99.9999% in price in the last 15 years. Faster than Moore's Law. First one cost like 50 million bucks, nowadays charging 50 bucks for a human gives you a big fat margin Bioweapon thing would be more, not less, deadly than SARS.
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Jan 26, 2020 15:41
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Infected objects for coronaviruses usually stop being infectious after 10 hours away from the body, unless kept in a warm but not too warm liquid environment. Still a problem for public transport but lol for shipping
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Jan 26, 2020 16:12
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unpacked robinhood posted:Stop saying peeps Look at this peep trying to avoid their proper referent
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Jan 26, 2020 16:42
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The point of wet markets is to have your meat before rigor mortis sets in. Probably even possible hygienically and with minimal pain to animals with skilled and experienced butchers who know about hygiene and stuff, and refrigeration and dedicated cleaners and stuff. Lol at that happening in PRC tho. And you shouldnt sell wild animals at all, especially endangered ones, which they totally did
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Jan 26, 2020 16:47
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We have 90000 ICU beds in the US. They're usually at 60% capacity. 50000 ICU beds in PRC, also usually at that capacity. So if we continue exponential growth those will fill up insanely quickly. We have the technology, but it's not scaled to the total population, it's scaled to like 0.01% of the pop
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Jan 26, 2020 16:59
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We are fairly sure its not airborne proper, it's spread by aerosolized droplets that are bigger. So tiny droplets of snot w virus, not floating virus particles. Also fomites, or infected stuff Smallpox, you deffo need the bio dealios N95 masks were 85% effective against SARS, 96% with facemask. Not perfect but drat sight better than nothing bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 17:18 on Jan 26, 2020 |
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Jan 26, 2020 17:10
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slap me and kiss me posted:Source your quotes. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1828811/ Fig 2, also Table 2 bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Jan 26, 2020 |
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Jan 26, 2020 17:41
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slap me and kiss me posted:Would be nice to see fomite survivability on porous, nonsterile objects. Dulbeccos PBS is prolly as good as it gets for a medium. Still goes away in like a day. Again, big problem for public transit, not a problem in shipping
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Jan 26, 2020 18:07
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Hungry posted:China spends more on internal security than on defense. much of the defense is also internal security, but relabelled as defense they are basically insanely prepared for a civil war to pop up out of nowhere 
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Jan 26, 2020 21:11
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I highly suspect Wuhan's hospital system is breaking down, as is completely expected in a turbocrisis like this There was also that 22yo dude who spent like 20 days in the ICU and recovered, but the first like week was in an insanely painful state
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Jan 26, 2020 22:44
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face-saving is a feature of bureaucracies, not of nationalities
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Jan 26, 2020 23:41
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Despera posted:Even Xi Jinping admits there was a cover up. He threatened to "nail to a wall of shame" the people responsible. There are many wuhan metro peeps working under the basically certain knowledge that afterwards, they will spend some serious time in a gulag that's bureaucracy!
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Jan 26, 2020 23:57
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Despera posted:Xi's letting them keep their organs? What a nice guy Actually, yes. That was one of the great innovations of Deng Xiaoping that marks one of the great breaks from the Maoist period: not actually killing political opponents who are mostly actual peerish peeps. Of course like, students or Falun Gong are fair game. Deng managed to live through mao hating him because he used to be much better friends with Mao even though Mao launched the Cultural Revolution in large part to prevent Deng's reforms and despite the fact that Deng was the man to order the massacre at Tienanmen Square. The politburo man who was most sympathetic to the protesters in Tiananmen Square, Zhao Ziyang, was purged but not like, actually killed, just put on house arrest. it continued for decades all the way to Bo Xilai, the hardline let's-actually-do-communism guy who Xi Jinping purged but like, put in jail These bureaucrats aren't really peers but they're not like unpersons to the state like Uighyurs and Falun Gong. They will go to like, normal jail
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Jan 27, 2020 00:07
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Chongqing, which Bo Xilao was governor of, is probably up next for mass spread of the disease, maybe tied w/ Guangdong, the place where basically half of all consumer electronics in the world is made
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Jan 27, 2020 00:10
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The reusables are still in stock for some reason
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Jan 27, 2020 04:07
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