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Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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Nap Ghost
i've heard of going viral but this is ridiculous

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Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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attn: goons, i have reached back into the glorious 8000 year history of the USA and am now making available my new TAM (Traditional American Medicine) cure for this virus for a limited time offer only. this rigorous regimen of powdered bullfrog balls, powdered buffalo balls, and powdered monarch butterfly balls is guaranteed to be 100% effective at nourishing your qi, and nearly that effective at preventing the virus. PMs are open!

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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Lambert posted:

Traditional American Medicine is not being able to afford a hospital visit and eating as many burgers as possible.

this is neo-TAM

nu-TAM will be that the burgers are made out of powdered bullfrog balls

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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good thing for me my fluids are all-natural and organic

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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Sten Freak posted:

Video taken from inside a Wuhan hospital showing 3 bodies covered in the hallway.

https://twitter.com/Tominmedill/status/1220627305728368640

imagine how much fun it is to be one of the people sitting there for hours or even days, in a small mask as people in full protection shuffle around and dead bodies start to accumulate

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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Flowers for QAnon posted:

Spent the day at SFO, ask me about my Wuhan.

how's it wuhanging?

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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you want the flu? you can't wuhandle the flu!

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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collapsing is probably a good way to get medical attention more quickly than continuing to stand in line for days

if i was over there and thought i might have the bug i'd probably walk into a hospital and fall over

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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Bape Culture posted:

So what does this actually mean.

the WHO makes recommendations and states are legally obligated to follow them

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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Enfys posted:

WHO recommendations are not enforceable, they are just recommendations

oh

i checked wikipedia and thought that was what it said -_- oh well

the bit where it says "Under the 2005 International Health Regulations (IHR), States have a legal duty to respond promptly to a PHEIC.[2]"

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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unfortunately we're just likely to get sick, it's the old and infirm (those lucky fucks!) who get to enjoy the sweet release of death

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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my guess is that this disease is pretty widely spreading already but most people don't have severe symptoms, apparently under 0.5% of infected middle aged people have died and even fewer younger people so it's basically just another way for pneumonia to hit older people. seems pretty possible it will just become a disease we see every year

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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i guess we will find out!

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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the plan for people reporting the virus is to send them to Wuhan

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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fearmongering

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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Books On Tape posted:

Multiply these by at least ten to get the real numbers, guaranteed. So, almost 3,000 dead, over 100,000 infected.

infected yes, dead no

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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that's 2019-nCoV

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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good batte

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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yes but as time goes on it seems that the virus is more spreadable and less deadly than initially thought

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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i thought this was an interesting tidbit

Single Mutation Could Significantly Enhance Wuhan Coronavirus

quote:

Decade-long structural studies by Fang Li of the University of Minnesota, et al. have shown how the SARS virus (SARS-CoV) interacts with animal and human hosts in order to infect them. The mechanics of infection by the Wuhan coronavirus appear to be similar. These investigators used the knowledge they gleaned from multiple SARS-CoV strains — isolated from different hosts in different years — and angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) receptors from different animal species to model predictions for the novel Wuhan coronavirus. (Both viruses use ACE2 to gain entry into the cell, but it serves normally as a regulator for heart function.)

“Our structural analyses confidently predict that the Wuhan coronavirus uses ACE2 as its host receptor,” the investigators wrote. That and several other structural details of the new virus are consistent with the ability of the Wuhan coronavirus to infect humans and with some capability to transmit among humans.

“Alarmingly, our data predict that a single mutation [at a specific spot in the genome] could significantly enhance [the Wuhan coronavirus’s] ability to bind with human ACE2,” the investigators write. For this reason, Wuhan coronavirus evolution in patients should be closely monitored for the emergence of novel mutations at the 501 position in its genome, and to a lesser extent, the 494 position, in order to predict the possibility of a more serious outbreak than has been seen so far.

probably won't happen but that would be something for sure

really the disturbing (yet predictable) news is that there's a third patient in india - and given what we know about its transmissible it's hard to imagine that it hasn't started spreading there as well. i don't think i'd like to be sick in wuhan right now but i do know i'd rather be sick there than in kolkata. and ofc africa is in a similar boat

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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it'll be ok just as long as everyone always washes their hands for 20 seconds after using the restroom and before eating

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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also sometimes three or even four tests have been needed to show a positive. i'm sure many infected people have been sent home with unspecified viral pneumonia after testing negative

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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no the virus was not engineered

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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SpaceGoatFarts posted:

OK maybe not engineered, but could the lab be the source of it? That would be very damaging for China's image so it's normal they would cover it up

NO. jesus christ.


Hopper posted:

Nah I meant more because of claims that it doesn't have to do with the fish market and they obfuscated the real source/timeline.

it looked like that was the common cause at the start of it so that was what was reported. as more data comes in yes it looks like it may have come from elsewhere initially. that doesn't mean anybody was necessarily purposefully lying about it

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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it was covered up initially because there was a series of important CCP meetings coming up and no bad news was allowed. for about two weeks there were 0 new infections reported and afterwards is when they started reporting infections again.

so yes it was totally mismanaged, it was probably spreading in november with people getting weird pneumonia, by december it was obvious to frontline people that there was something going on but local officials didn't want to hear about it, only wanted to keep it quiet until the party business was over at least. and this was when they thought it didn't transmit from person to person (now we know that's because it was transmitting asymptomatically). so it was a huge mistake and if they had done it differently it would be a much better situation today

yes there was a coverup, no the coverup was not to hide some sort of secret bioengineering weapon release. just standard CCP cover your rear end coverup

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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riseofmydick posted:

I have aspergers so I think of everything logically this may be my own fault.

you think you think logically, maybe

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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i'm going to try to find the thing written by another medical person saying that article is nothing but baloney

https://twitter.com/biskits_n_gravy/status/1223640553960722434?s=20

https://twitter.com/klausenhauser/status/1223602099512127488?s=20

not surprisingly it's harder to find than the people freaking out about it

Mozi fucked around with this message at 18:10 on Feb 4, 2020

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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He was willing to give his life for his country but in his own time of need his country isn't there for him. Not exactly an uncommon story.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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it's likely there are lots of unreported cases all over the place because many people show minimal if any symptoms

this virus is a weird mix of 'it's not really that bad as all that' and 'it's really bad'

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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Chrs posted:

I raised this few pages ago and asked how reliable a news source they are and no one really answered me

i'd never heard of them before but all they're doing is collating and collecting other officially published stats. nothing i've seen them post has been speculative or unsourced

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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man, that sounds rough. doctors doing 12 hour shifts with only one suit of protective clothing so you can't eat or drink or go to the bathroom

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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man this is just BS

certainly the official count doesn't reflect reality, but they don't have an additional secret set of numbers that reflects the actual ill/dead. they probably have some math people doing model simulations that say there might be such and such numbers but there is no way that the numbers reported here actually come from a secret tally the government is hiding

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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Pawn 17 posted:

Why would the government not keep track of the actual numbers internally?

think about how this would be possible to keep track of real numbers, when there is a shortage of test kits, that test kits are unreliable, that many people have mild symptoms, and that people may be dying at home

you just can't get these numbers right now. you can do math to guess what they are, but you can't walk around tallying them up

believe me I don't trust the CCP in general but there are limitations to what anybody can actually know in these situations

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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like what? "a hundred people came into X and X hospital today, 50 tested negative and then we ran out of tests, so.... let's call it, maybe, 30 infected?" i don't see how that's any better

it's ok to accept uncertainty. certainly there are many more dead and sick than the official numbers, but that's just because of the nature of how they are counted. i do believe the math people when they said a week ago there were high five figured infected and that's also valuable information. i just don't need there to be some great source of truth that is being hidden from us

and yes there are additional issues where in China the cause of death for a lot of these probably won't reflect the virus which is annoying but apparently just how things are done there

i don't mean to diminish how awful it must be for many people affected by this, which could very well just be the start of a larger global issue (imagine if it was spreading in Bangladesh, India, African slums...). but everyone getting excited about the most extreme stuff getting tossed out online just removes us further from seeing what is actually happening in reality

Mozi fucked around with this message at 19:14 on Feb 5, 2020

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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Pawn 17 posted:

So we should just unquestioningly trust the official numbers? Numbers from the same government that when his started rather than taking preventative action and asking for international help, moved to suppress doctors and reporters. China under reporting the numbers has real life consequences for people, especially in China.

Getting real information out early is important on every level, from the global research community spending the resources for treatment and vaccines, to international aid for China, screening for those who have spent time in Wuhan, and even just for things like people to be aware that it's important to do things like washing your hands.

The Chinese government basically saying "Don't worry, everything is totally fine!" because they are primarily concerned about their economy goes against all that.

you are doing the opposite of getting real information out. you are spreading complete bullshit as if it were or might be fact.

i specifically said i don't trust the CCP and that you need to accept that perfect information is impossible to obtain in any case. accept uncertainty and know what you can't know for sure.

the recent moves by the CCP indicate they accept that economic damage will happen as a result of this. i don't know how it will shake out - possible global recession? - but I would really love to see your source of China saying 'everything is totally fine'

just to be totally clear i personally despise the CCP and in general do not trust them at all so it's weird having to defend them to any length

Mozi fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Feb 5, 2020

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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I think the most accurate numbers currently would be from models, as we know more about how this spreads they will become more and more accurate - currently maybe something on the order of 100k people infected in China on the higher end.

I certainly don't mean to downplay the seriousness of the situation at all.

And this was a good article. The initial response to the outbreak was bungled to the extent that it is undeniable and people are noticing.

Coronavirus Crisis Shows China’s Governance Failure

quote:

Wuhan’s mayor blamed higher-ups. A senior disease control official blamed layers of bureaucracy. A top government expert blamed the public: The people, he said, simply didn’t understand what he told them.

As China grapples with a mysterious coronavirus outbreak that has killed at least 490 people and sickened thousands, the country’s 1.4 billion people are asking what went wrong. Senior officials are engaging in an unusually blunt display of finger pointing.

So many officials have denied responsibility that some online users joke that they are watching a passing-the-buck competition. (It’s “tossing the wok” in Chinese.)

The Chinese people are getting a rare glimpse of how China’s giant, opaque bureaucratic system works — or, rather, how it fails to work. Too many of its officials have become political apparatchiks, fearful of making decisions that anger their superiors and too removed and haughty when dealing with the public to admit mistakes and learn from them.

“The most important issue this outbreak exposed is the local government’s lack of action and fear of action,” said Xu Kaizhen, a best-selling author who is famous for his novels that explore the intricate workings of China’s bureaucratic politics.

...

Growing numbers of people are questioning the government’s decisions as China enters a period of virtual shutdown. As the virus spread, officials in Wuhan and around the country withheld critical information, played down the threat and rebuked doctors who tried to raise the alarm. A reconstruction of the diseases’s spread by The New York Times showed that by not issuing earlier warnings, the Chinese government potentially lost the window to keep the disease from becoming an epidemic.

...

Few people dare to question Mr. Xi openly, for fear of provoking censors or the police. But after Mr. Xi disappeared from public in recent days, some social media users began asking euphemistically, “Where is that person?” They are also posting online and sharing pictures of former leaders at the site of past crises.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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China is reporting confirmed cases and people who were confirmed to have died as a direct result of the virus. They are not 'under reporting' any 'estimates', though by nature of reality they are under-reporting actual infected/dead.

They could publish their best guesstimates for actual infected/dead, but you don't need to go to them for that, there are plenty of medical experts figuring that out on their own based on more or less the same data.

I'm done w/ this anyways, I hate arguing. Things will go as they go and we'll see how it ends up.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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Here is an actual model https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

They estimated ~75000 infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, which more or less is in line with US health official claims that there are around 100k infected in China.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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Don't know if anyone here reads the Sinocism newsletter but this edition has tons of great articles and data about the outbreak and related issues: https://sinocism.com/p/reports-of-the-death-dr-li-wenliang?r=2e&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

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Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

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This is a loving terrible, cruel and counterproductive idea. Far better to let people quarantine at home with their families if there's not enough treatment for everyone where at least they can be with their loved ones and have some sort of familiarity and comfort. Even if the entire family is infected it's very likely that only one or two older people will have a chance of getting the more severe symptoms.

As is quoted in the article,

quote:

“What happens to the people who are sick?” he asked. “Do they receive care, and at what level? And can the caregivers, in the circumstances of a stadium or school auditorium, provide care effectively — and keep themselves safe?”

Other outside experts said that concentrating large numbers of sick people together in dormitory-like facilities created conditions ripe for inadvertently spreading a range of infectious diseases.

“A lot of these people already have underlying health problems that need to be cared for,” said Thomas M. File Jr., president of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. “You put them all in close proximity, and they could be exposed to other infections that are even more easily spread than coronavirus, like tuberculosis, which is airborne, and bacterial infections that can spread among dense populations.”

This is just going to take a lot of sick people and make them even sicker and more miserable.

And it's absolutely just doing something that looks strong in order to not look weak after totally loving everything up previously. Look how good I am, Papa Xi!

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