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Tashilicious posted:https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1220616882132094976
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Jan 24, 2020 09:54
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That seems a bad ratio of serious to total cases https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/25/coronavirus-china-death-tolls-rises-to-41-as-france-confirms-three-cases 1,287 cases of coronavirus including 237 patients in serious condition. Australia confirmed a man in his 50s tested positive for coronavirus on Saturday after returning to Melbourne from Wuhan. Malaysia has confirmed 3 cases of the virus In France, three people have fallen ill with the virus – the disease’s first appearance in Europe The United States reported its second case, involving a Chicago woman in her 60s who was hospitalised in isolation after returning from China Two cases confirmed in Vietnam Three cases in Singapore As of Friday night, five people had been diagnosed with the virus in Hong Kong, according to the South China Morning Post On Friday South Korea’s government confirmed the second case of a coronavirus that originated in China, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said. Japan – a destination for many lunar new year holiday makers – has confirmed 2 cases Thailand’s public health ministry has confirmed five cases. Nepal has one infection Taiwan has reported three cases and Macao two
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Jan 25, 2020 05:28
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:my mother called me when i was eating the buffet and we talked about things including the wuhan fish flu. she had just rewatched contagion the other day 1st off, why should I trust this rando? 2nd, is 3.8 really that bad? Measels spreads to 18 new people per person infection.
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Jan 25, 2020 05:37
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TeenageArchipelago posted:fish flu needs a r0 of 4.20 and a mortality rate of 6.9% for the memes https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
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Jan 25, 2020 06:28
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Nearly equal to the population of Great Britain https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/25/coronavirus-china-death-tolls-rises-to-41-as-france-confirms-three-cases quote:56 million people in 18 provinces are now subject to travel restrictions.
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Jan 25, 2020 09:31
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Looks like China is anticipating...robust growth to put it lightly. Chinese state media are reporting that a second hospital, with a capacity of 1,300 beds, will be built to tackle the virus. https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/25/coronavirus-china-death-tolls-rises-to-41-as-france-confirms-three-cases quote:Construction has begun and is scheduled to be completed on February 3rd
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Jan 25, 2020 11:01
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Only 49 cured... looks like this is a long lasting sickness, which is bad even if it doesn't kill because this is going to put a hell of a strain on medical services. https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/st...irms-first-case Seven of the deaths in the last day have been outside of Heibi province. https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-outbreak-death-toll-rises-to-54-as-canada-confirms-first-case
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Jan 26, 2020 02:16
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SKULL.GIF posted:I'm reading that China isn't testing dead people for coronavirus, so if you caught it and then died before you were diagnosed with it, you wouldn't be included in the official counts. That keeps things under wraps for now, but if there are 190k infected on Feb 4th as projected above and 5-6k of them die that's not going to fool anyone.
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Jan 26, 2020 03:50
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Scrub-Niggurath posted:rich people would gently caress off to their vacation homes, and who cares about anyone not rich Trump needs white silents and boomers to turn out in mass this November.
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Jan 26, 2020 05:10
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Bad bad news... https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-outbreak-death-toll-rises-to-54-as-canada-confirms-first-case Hong Kong now has a sixth confirmed case of coronavirus. According to reports, the patient, who was admitted to Ruttonjee Hospital in Wan Chai district of Hong Kong, had recently travelled to Wuhan on a high speed train before returning to Hong Kong
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Jan 26, 2020 09:03
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Homeless Friend posted:I wonder if the huge incubation period also is saving us from the insane world travel aspect since whatever rich bastard gets it in wuhan probably is back at home by the time it actually becomes contagious and they're relatively easily trackable. The above guy I mentioned could have spread it to dozens on the train car he was on.
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Jan 26, 2020 09:06
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Jose posted:How come India doesn't get any of these out breaks they also have a ridiculously huge population If they haven't gotten any visitors from Wuhan in the last month I'd be surprised.
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Jan 26, 2020 12:01
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Fucks like these parents are going to kill us all https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-virus-chinese-toddler-parents-who-avoided-quarantine-in-12345182 quote:JOHOR BAHRU: Two Chinese nationals who took their toddler, suspected to have been infected with the Wuhan virus, out of a public hospital in Johor to avoid quarantine, were detained at Senai International Airport, near Kulai on Saturday night (Jan 25).
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Jan 26, 2020 14:35
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pigz posted:that 30% number would be insane. Where is this 30% number coming from?
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Jan 27, 2020 00:37
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https://twitter.com/ghoeberx/status/1221577518316126210
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Jan 27, 2020 00:54
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:3% death rate, how is this worse than swine flu? With a reproductive rate this high it's going to infect millions. For every million infected, 30,000 will die. Unless that number thrown around in the thread of 30% need ventilators is true. If that's true, then 300,000 of that million will die because there is no where near that number of ventilators.
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Jan 27, 2020 00:56
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What does severe mean? On a ventilator/respirator? Because if so, won't the number of severe cases quickly outstrip the supply and then all of them will die without aid?
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Jan 27, 2020 01:45
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Lote posted:If you need to go to an icu for an extended period of time, the chances of leaving the hospital alive are like 50%. Usually people in the icu are listed as “critical” Well, they don't seem to be differentiating, so that's why I ask.
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Jan 27, 2020 01:58
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Very skeptical about that Nepal number. They didn't even know the patient had it until after he was discharged. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/25/c_138732435.htm quote:KATHMANDU, Jan. 25 (Xinhua) -- A Nepali student studying in China has been found infected with the new coronavirus, an official of Nepal's Ministry of Health and Population has said.
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Jan 27, 2020 02:44
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Vishass posted:Like wild guess playing with exponential growth calculators but I don't see Trump doing a lot of rallies for awhile by March Trump, Biden, Sanders, Warren...all over 70. Buttigieg vs. Pence race coming up?
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Jan 27, 2020 02:54
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Prince Myshkin posted:You're not immune after pulling through an infection. Not with this one anyway.
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Jan 27, 2020 03:43
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Schnorkles posted:its pretty important to note that not all cases of coronavirus turn into pneumonia and, more than just "not all cases," it may end up being a relatively small percentage limited to people with seriously compromised immune systems. There's certainly plenty of discussion right now that a lot of people manifest the virus with very mild or no symptoms at all. None of the governments involved are treating it like that though. Are they all just panicking? BBC says more than 300 critical https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51259649 quote:The overall number of confirmed cases in China is 2,744. State media say more than 300 are critically ill.
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Jan 27, 2020 05:03
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CODChimera posted:has anyone started stockpiling food and water? I bought 10 kilos of rice and have 76 liters of water
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Jan 27, 2020 05:08
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Also, that "severe condition" number from earlier...461/2744 is 16.8% That's not that different than the number from the mortality percentage from the first 41 patients, which was 15%.
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Jan 27, 2020 05:13
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SKULL.GIF posted:almost three years, january 1918 to december 1920 It took like two weeks to get across the Atlantic then. Now you can travel to any other continent in one day.
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Jan 27, 2020 05:14
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snoo posted:"The most frequently reported symptoms were 40 (98%) with fever, 31 (76%) with cough, and 18 (44%) with muscle aches and tiredness. Less frequent symptoms included coughing sputum or blood, headache and diarrhea." x Missed the most important part https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext quote:41 admitted hospital patients had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%] of 41); less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and cardiovascular disease (six [15%]). Median age was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0). 27 (66%) of 41 patients had been exposed to Huanan seafood market. One family cluster was found. Common symptoms at onset of illness were fever (40 [98%] of 41 patients), cough (31 [76%]), and myalgia or fatigue (18 [44%]); less common symptoms were sputum production (11 [28%] of 39), headache (three [8%] of 38), haemoptysis (two [5%] of 39), and diarrhoea (one [3%] of 38). Dyspnoea developed in 22 (55%) of 40 patients (median time from illness onset to dyspnoea 8·0 days [IQR 5·0–13·0]). 26 (63%) of 41 patients had lymphopenia. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest CT. Complications included acute respiratory distress syndrome (12 [29%]), RNAaemia (six [15%]), acute cardiac injury (five [12%]) and secondary infection (four [10%]). 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died. Compared with non-ICU patients, ICU patients had higher plasma levels of IL2, IL7, IL10, GSCF, IP10, MCP1, MIP1A, and TNFα.
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Jan 27, 2020 06:06
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Equivalent to the population of Italy. https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1221651024420753408
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Jan 27, 2020 07:20
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Ora Tzo posted:Just wondering, if you get exposed to the virus and recover you get immune to it right? It's too early to tell isn't it? How do similar viruses like SARS and MERS work?
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Jan 27, 2020 10:18
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This seems suboptimal https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2020/01/hubei-cities-fearful-china-virus-medical-supplies-run-200126034425456.html quote:In Xiangyang, the third-largest city in Hubei and home to more than five million people, there were zero confirmed cases as of January 25, but that has not brought any relief. Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 00:24 on Jan 28, 2020 |
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Jan 28, 2020 00:17
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SKULL.GIF posted:I don't recall exactly (When I made the post you're quoting I was in the middle of scanning through Twitter, Reddit, and a bunch of journalism digging up information) but there's been complaints about patients not getting tested and there's this story: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/25/quick-burials-lack-tests-raise-fears-cornavirus-outbreak-much/ So this is why they were monitoring thousands of likely cases in yesterday's update
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Jan 28, 2020 00:32
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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:my god.... everyone in chinas dead Or they're trying to figure out what format to release the numbers in because they ran out of tests and don't know how many cases they have .
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Jan 28, 2020 01:19
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twoday posted:https://twitter.com/TaoDaoMan/status/1221952486270889984?s=19 I'm mean...it's better than not being treated in a hospital
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Jan 28, 2020 01:36
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And that's just Wuhan! 
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Jan 28, 2020 01:56
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If you go to the link, Wuhan has quote:563 serious, 127 critical
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Jan 28, 2020 01:59
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Looking at the numbers further, out of Wuhan's 2,714 cases they have had 100 deaths, and currently 563 cases are serious and 127 critical. That's 3.68% dead, 20.74% serious, 4.68% critical.
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Jan 28, 2020 02:13
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Xaris posted:not good, not terrible I assume critical needs a ventilator given the main killing symptom is pneumonia. So, if the numbers get out of control like it seems they will, all those poor folks will die because there won't be enough ventilators to go around.
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Jan 28, 2020 02:20
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A quick google search says 10-25% of the population gets the flu each year. Using the Wuhan numbers I quoted earlier as a base (3.68% dead, 20.74% serious, 4.68% critical) If 10% get sick that's 27,600,000 dead world wide, 35,100,000 critical and 155,550,000 serious. If 15% get sick that's 41,400,00 dead world wide, 52,650,000 critical and 233,325,000 serious If 20% get sick that's 55,200,000 dead world wide, 70,200,000 critical and 311,100,000 serious. If 25% get sick that's 69,000,000 dead world wide, 87,750,000 critical and 388,875,000 serious. Obviously hospitals would be overwhelmed by these numbers and if critical cases necessitates a respirator or ventilator nearly all of them would die since there aren't nearly enough.
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Jan 28, 2020 02:35
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Schnorkles posted:
What's CAP mean?
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Jan 28, 2020 03:02
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Schnorkles posted:community acquired pneumonia Yikes quote:The mortality associated with CAP greatly depends on the clinical setting where it is treated. This mortality is only less than 3% in the outpatient setting, around 5–10% in inpatients not requiring ICU care, as high as 25% in intubated patients, and nearly 50% in ICU patients requiring vasopressors
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Jan 28, 2020 03:10
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https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1221979709661204480
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Jan 28, 2020 03:32
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