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Skull Servant posted:Irish people are, without a doubt, racist. All you have to do is look at how popular Casey was in the Presidential campaign after his comments on the Traveller community. I'd compare it to anti-indigenous racism in Canada/Australia/Latin America in terms of the "but I'm not being racist, I'm just saying things that are true" statements that you get from even supposedly intellectual people. Skull Servant posted:On the flip side, however, I've also seen people laud over immigrants because of their work ethic. This is mostly said about Indian and Asian immigrants, but I have also heard it about black people specifically in the HSE, which I find a little odd considering the general racism around black people in the rest of Ireland.
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Jan 23, 2020 21:56
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For sure theres mad racism in Ireland at times and its mostly unexamined. gently caress, when I was a kid I was certainly guilty of dropping the occasional slur into conversation without a second thought. Took me far too long to realise that was bigoted, that I was being a bigot. I know a fair few folk who never seemed to realise it.
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Jan 23, 2020 21:59
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Guavanaut posted:Attacks on the Traveller community aren't even seen as racism in a lot of Europe. Like even the most anti-racist (against the most racialized targets, like African people) people in Ireland or France or Britain will often be racist about Travellers or Roma or whoever forms an assumed nomadic community in that area. This is a legitimate point but Casey also stood in the middle of a street during the EU elections shouting into a megaphone that he was racist. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishcentral.com/news/politics/im-an-irish-racist-irish-european-election-peter-casey.amp
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Jan 23, 2020 22:19
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I think he might be a racist.  I wasn't thinking him in specific, just that people will tolerate (or come out with) some hardline awful level poo poo about Travellers "not being fit to be part of society" and "should be rounded up and put in camps" and stuff that they'd never say or even think about another ethnic or faith group, and there does seem to be a mental divide between racism against, say, Africans or Asians and bigotry against Travellers among a lot of otherwise tolerant metropolitan types.
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Jan 23, 2020 22:40
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Oh absolutely. A lot of that seems to come down to ignorance of the Travelling culture, with people just assuming they are settled Irish who decided one day to abandon the sedentary life. EDIT: Irish Times are reporting that a poll in Donegal has SF picking up a second seat there, taking from either FF or Pringle. Casey is on 2%, being outpolled by the Aontú candidate ón 3%. Donegal poll finds Sinn Féin may take seat from Independent or Fianna Fáil (via @IrishTimes) https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ire...%A1il-1.4149445 Skull Servant fucked around with this message at 00:05 on Jan 24, 2020 |
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Jan 23, 2020 22:45
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happyhippy posted:You're right, immigrant taxi drivers get a lot of abuse, only learned out here recently there are parts of Cork they won't even drive into due to the runners and/or attacks they will get. The plight of taxi drivers here is really difficult. One thing I have noticed is a number of female friends who have said that they would not take a taxi home if the driver was black and they were on their own. On the one hand this is a form of prejudice that's clouding their decision and logically they are no more at risk from a white taxi driver than a non-white one. On the other side, it's an irrational fear on their part. And you can't try and "actually..." that away. (As it is I have a good idea how safe and dangerous it is in Ireland. But people dont want to be told "you are totally safe. If you are attacked it was statistically unlikely to happen.") Plus as a man, I can't really go and lecture women on their lived in experiences.
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Jan 24, 2020 00:05
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Skull Servant posted:Oh absolutely. A lot of that seems to come down to ignorance of the Travelling culture, with people just assuming they are settled Irish who decided one day to abandon the sedentary life. That makes sense. After the last Presidential election there was speculation that he would run for a TD in Donegal. One of my very politically astute friends said if he tried that the multiple big party political machines in those areas would feed Casey his teeth. And 'lo that is happening.
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Jan 24, 2020 00:08
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Skull Servant posted:EDIT: Irish Times are reporting that a poll in Donegal has SF picking up a second seat there, taking from either FF or Pringle. Casey is on 2%, being outpolled by the Aontú candidate ón 3%. Aye this sounds about right tbh - Donegal really should be two SF seats and they completely hosed their vote management at the last election by running three candidates and managed to turn 1 and two third quota into a single TD. Pearse Doherty has the profile to get in comfortably, FG usually can scrape together enough votes to get a candidate in then there are two candidates running from the immediate area Casey runs around (the Inishowen peninsula) - one FF's top performer who will probably finish first for them, the other SF's number two performer who will be fishing for local voters to boost SF voters from elsewhere in the county. Casey just get's squeezed out by the localism of the race and his appeal, though significant in places like Inishowen based on what I've heard chatting to people from there, doesn't trump the old parish politics.
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Jan 24, 2020 01:28
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The Question IRL posted:The plight of taxi drivers here is really difficult. On the other hand, I think actually you can lecture people on their racist prejudices, whether they're women or not.
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Jan 24, 2020 02:34
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All I know is I'm voting Green. gently caress FF but also a big gently caress you to FG, as someone who works in mental health, I have seen the damage their polices have done.
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Jan 24, 2020 02:40
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Is ISF an acceptable source for all my Ireland-related news or should I broaden my horizons? I'm only half-joking here.
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Jan 24, 2020 03:02
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How strict are the parties in Ireland wrt removing the whip-equivalent? If the greens go into coalition with FF/FG and that nice lady from the first page doesn't vote with them is she likely to get booted? Though I gather being an independent in Ireland isn't the career ender it is in the UK since some of them actually get elected?
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Jan 24, 2020 08:56
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Miftan posted:How strict are the parties in Ireland wrt removing the whip-equivalent? If the greens go into coalition with FF/FG and that nice lady from the first page doesn't vote with them is she likely to get booted? Though I gather being an independent in Ireland isn't the career ender it is in the UK since some of them actually get elected? As an example, Billy Timmins was kicked from Fine Gael for violating the whip on abortion. He joined Renua but after he lost his seat in the re-election in 2016 he rejoined Fine Gael again in 2018.
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Jan 24, 2020 09:17
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Miftan posted:How strict are the parties in Ireland wrt removing the whip-equivalent? If the greens go into coalition with FF/FG and that nice lady from the first page doesn't vote with them is she likely to get booted? Though I gather being an independent in Ireland isn't the career ender it is in the UK since some of them actually get elected? Yeah the whip in Irish parties is pretty drat strong and a lot less forgiving than the UK, the Dail doesn't really have backbench party rebels like Westminster as rather than having three levels of whips theres just one - usually you vote against the party line and you get expelled from the parliamentary party immediately, even abstaining without permission is extremely dodgy. If she refused to vote for the parties choice of taoiseach I would say that's an immediate booting tbh You do occasionally get times when the whip is not applied and parties allow a free vote but that's usually for issues like abortion or traditional matters of conscience when religious belief starts getting tangled up kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 09:21 on Jan 24, 2020 |
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Jan 24, 2020 09:18
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kustomkarkommando posted:Yeah the whip in Irish parties is pretty drat strong and a lot less forgiving than the UK, the Dail doesn't really have backbench party rebels like Westminster as rather than having three levels of whips theres just one - usually you vote against the party line and you get expelled from the parliamentary party immediately, even abstaining without permission is extremely dodgy. I was more thinking voting for the coalition but not any poo poo policies. Are the whips usually applied formally in votes or just taken as standard that you'll vote with the party? If the former, then how often? Just big votes or "everything gently caress you". Just wondering what the wiggle room is. Not that it matters really, no party will tolerate someone playing silly buggers unless it's a strategy to appear to not go along with the coalition's worst bits while stoll waving them through.
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Jan 24, 2020 09:22
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Miftan posted:I was more thinking voting for the coalition but not any poo poo policies. Are the whips usually applied formally in votes or just taken as standard that you'll vote with the party? If the former, then how often? Just big votes or "everything gently caress you". Just wondering what the wiggle room is. Not that it matters really, no party will tolerate someone playing silly buggers unless it's a strategy to appear to not go along with the coalition's worst bits while stoll waving them through. They are pretty much universally applied, exceptions are rare. There has been some talk about maybe loosing them in general, it got quite bad for example badly during the closing few years of the FG-Labour coalition when they started having to kick out TDs for voting in favour of reforming abortion laws (the coalition's legal advice said must be done through a referendum so they couldnt legislative action without one as unconstitutional). If your in a junior party in a coalition your watched like a hawk to enforce party discipline, an example I can think in this government is the Occupied Territories Bill that criminalised trade with Israeli settlements in the west bank that the government opposed but Independent Alliance supported - they had to negotiate with FG to be allowed to abstain and that took a few weeks
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Jan 24, 2020 09:56
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As a foreign observer, I can't get over the fact that your two main parties don't even pretend to be ideologically distinct from each other. The difference is based on some long-forgotten point of contention in the Irish civil war, right? So it's amazing that even after all this time the parties haven't been replaced by a typical center-left/center-right split, or that FF/FG haven't evolved to inhabit ideological camps, even if just in theory.
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Jan 24, 2020 17:46
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:As a foreign observer, I can't get over the fact that your two main parties don't even pretend to be ideologically distinct from each other. The difference is based on some long-forgotten point of contention in the Irish civil war, right? So it's amazing that even after all this time the parties haven't been replaced by a typical center-left/center-right split, or that FF/FG haven't evolved to inhabit ideological camps, even if just in theory. They're two different flavours of the centre-right. FF are more rural based. They tend to be a little more economically "left", and will typically increase State funding, expand social welfare, ECT. Still relatively restrained, but definitely a lot more than the economically liberal FG. FG tend to be more urban in their conservatism. Wholeheartedly adopted neoliberalism and will unashamedly defend it. They would absolutely roll back as much as possible if they were ever allowed a majority. FG, however, tend to be more socially liberal. Not that they are paragons for the plight of minorities, but their liberalism allows for Labour and others to argue that the State should maybe not deny rights to people. FF, on the other hand, are still very socially conservative. It was a surprise that Martin actively supported Repeal in the 2017 referendum. Even still, a significant amount of FF TDs were a part of the pro-life side. Part of the reason they never adopted hard ideological stances, at least in my opinion, is because of our voting system. The last majority government was in 1977 and the likelyhood of that happening again is next to zero. FG have nearly always worked with Labour, who bring them more to the center. FF will work with anyone and will let that guide their politics. For example, their working with the Progressive Democrats in the 1990s had them take a pretty hard neoliberal streak. Both parties realise that they must be flexible in order to survive, because ideologies can become unpopular and they're better to sail by the wind. Another reason is that we still have Civil War politics is because it wasn't all that long ago that it happened. While the war itself was waged in the early 1920s, you can argue that the tensions didn't begin to relieve themselves until the election of FF in 1932. The question surrounding the signing of the Treaty of Westminster was raised on the announcement of the Republic in 1949 and with the Troubles in the 1970s. The people who were alive at the time of the Civil War only really began to die off from the 1990s, and even still, their children will be heavily influenced by their voting patterns. Again, this next generation are only dying off now. Fewer young people want to support the main two parties, and it's doubtful that anyone under 40 who hasn't voted for either of them will change their mind in the future. So, a realignment could happen, but it could really only happen at this point in time.
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Jan 24, 2020 20:11
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Skull Servant posted:
Thanks for the primer. Who would stand to gain from a realignment? The Labour party?
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Jan 25, 2020 03:31
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:Thanks for the primer. Absolutely not. The party is dead in the water and may be only one or two election cycles away from looking into a merger with another party. SF likely have the most to gain. They actively advertise themselves as a centre-left to left wing party. I live in Gerry Adams' constituency (and worked for him for a while) and his office has "for a 32 county socialist republic" in the windows. The smaller left parties are also attempting to court the party in case the Dail arithmetic allows a broad left coalition. EDIT: I might be giving Labour too much of a hard time here. While I do think that they are heading for political irrelevancy, they might be able to maintain their niche if they get a leader who actually does anything. Howlin has been a complete nonentity since becoming leader, and has allowed Labour to sit in the shadows and do a whole lot of nothing. It's a pity that the only person who is gunning for the leadership is doing it completely out of his own ego and not for the good of anyone. Skull Servant fucked around with this message at 04:30 on Jan 25, 2020 |
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Jan 25, 2020 03:50
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Labour, the Soc Dems and the Greens at this stage are all fishing from the same "champagne socialist" largely middle class, centre-left, urban vote. Which unfortunately isn't likely to get much beyond 15-20% total. They're going to have to amalgamate at some stage. Skull Servant has described the FF/FG differences well, but its also worth bearing in mind that between them the two parties are very much on a downward slope in terms of vote share. Between them their vote share has been: 2016 49% 2011 53% 2007 69% 2002 64% 1997 67% 1992 64% 1989 73% 1987 71% 1982(2) 83% 1982 85% 1981 81% 1977 81% etc They dying off of the civil war generation from the 1980s onwards, and now their children from the 2000s onwards, is slowly killing the unquestionably loyal FF/FG party voters. Blut fucked around with this message at 12:52 on Jan 25, 2020 |
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Jan 25, 2020 12:50
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What's up SF only running 44 candidates?
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Jan 25, 2020 21:12
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Looks like they are hedging their bets in a lot of constituencies and not running multiple candidates to prevent vote diluting. Kustom said earlier that the party attempted to run three candidates in Donegal last GE and ended up only electing one, when they probably could have gotten two in the constituency. They're running at least one candidate in every constituency except Cork North West. Not sure why they're passing there, maybe a Munster poster will know more. Another possibility is that they aren't overplaying their hand, having a very bad day at the polls in the Presidential election (though they were never going to have a good one tbf) and an underwhelming day at the local and EU elections, losing nearly half their councillors and one MEP. That said, there seems to be a lot of people flipping to SF, at least in my area. I've heard "maybe they won't follow through on their promises, but we should give them a try". It would be interesting to see if that view is held elsewhere, because my constituency is probably going to return the same amount of SF TDs as they did last time - 2.
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Jan 25, 2020 21:51
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https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1221225091842945030 late night Red C poll before the papers today. Sinn Fein surge confirmed by all the major pollsters now.
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Jan 26, 2020 01:33
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Skull Servant posted:Looks like they are hedging their bets in a lot of constituencies and not running multiple candidates to prevent vote diluting. Kustom said earlier that the party attempted to run three candidates in Donegal last GE and ended up only electing one, when they probably could have gotten two in the constituency. From what I've read they wouldn't be able to form a minority government with 44 TDs, even if they all get elected, is that the case? If so, what's the best case scenario?
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Jan 26, 2020 02:46
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Coohoolin posted:From what I've read they wouldn't be able to form a minority government with 44 TDs, even if they all get elected, is that the case? If so, what's the best case scenario? Mary Lou has been pretty clearly doing the work within the party to move them towards coalition based on delivering housing and health reform, the previous line was they would never enter a coalition unless they where the majority party but that was quite openly shelved at their last ard fheis. From her speech last year: quote:There are some who believe we should never talk to other parties about government. Coalition with FG remains insanely unlikely but there is enough chatter about a potential coalition with FF, even among some prominent FF members like O'Cuiv and others who would prefer it over a deal with FG, that Martin has been forced to adopt a hard never never ever line publicly during the election. Part of it is really looking at the mathematics of the results and honestly if SF don't win a majority it's gonna be extremely unlikely they will ever get the support needed to become a minority government and there's only so far they can go without scoring some policy victories, something next to impossible to achieve from the opposition benches.
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Jan 26, 2020 03:09
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And really saying we will never coalition just sounds a bit disingenuous in Irish politics where you absolutely need to if you have serious aspirations for power, which SF most assuredly do
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Jan 26, 2020 03:10
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Honestly the housing stuff is so loving nuts that if you've got a party there making it a policy plank and have never been in power to disappoint it should be a slam dunk. I keep an eye on housing fb pages from when we were worried I might get chucked out of the UK and it's insane. Like lmao move to galway and live in a closet that costs more than an HMO up here.
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Jan 26, 2020 03:13
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Renua with their finger on the pulse of the electorate
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Jan 26, 2020 12:12
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Hey the passport thing worked really well for the brexit campaign
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Jan 26, 2020 12:15
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Personally I like Renua's bird/three different coloured chillis logo.
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Jan 26, 2020 12:26
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I've had burgundy standard Irish passports since the 1980s. Were green ones even an option in 2006?
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Jan 26, 2020 12:52
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Green passports are better than blue or burgundy ones so this might be the one thing ever I agree with them on.
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Jan 26, 2020 14:49
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Back in the 70s/80s green passports meant more likely to be stopped and searched at the border, or at checkpoints. My whole family decided to get British passports then just to stop being hassled, especially one uncle who flew a lot to the UK.
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Jan 27, 2020 00:02
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My uncle used to get stopped every time he got off the ferry in NI. Apparently it was because he 'looked like someone on the list' but as they'd never tell him who he was supposedly hiding from being I think they were just being pricks. That was on a UK passport.
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Jan 27, 2020 01:02
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kustomkarkommando posted:Mary Lou has been pretty clearly doing the work within the party to move them towards coalition based on delivering housing and health reform, the previous line was they would never enter a coalition unless they where the majority party but that was quite openly shelved at their last ard fheis. From her speech last year: Speaking of, is one of SF's big platforms still the removal of the Special Criminal Court
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Jan 27, 2020 11:32
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The Question IRL posted:Speaking of, is one of SF's big platforms still the removal of the Special Criminal Court They've moved down to simply reviewing them rather than outright abolition this election. Re: the red c poll also some interesting shifts in the tables https://twitter.com/GerardBrady100/status/1221402958832816133?s=19 ABC1 support for SF at 17% to FF/FGs 21% each, compared to C2DE support at 22% for SF and 28% for FF - does seem like the housing promises are hitting home for the middle classes. Also SF leading the 18-34 cohort by 35% (with FF and FG both sitting at only ~14%)
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Jan 27, 2020 11:54
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Anecdotally a lot of high earning young professionals I know who would traditionally be FG voters are very angry at being screwed by Dublin rents. They seem to accept that FG and their laissez-faire hands off, the free market will solve everything, approach has completely failed over the last 5 years. And that radical change is needed. FF are too conservative socially to get their votes, so the Greens/SF/SocDems seem to be benefiting the most. The housing crisis is also the one big issue pushing even older middle class people to more left-wing parties that I've noticed. Dublin rents are hurting not just low earners, and not just young people, but also middle class parents because they regularly now have their kids living at home with them into their late 20s.
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Jan 27, 2020 13:14
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I also think SF's commitment to outright abolish LPT is probably helping them with middle class homeowners as well tbh - the Greens and SocDems have adopted replacing it with a Land Value Tax which is probably arguably more progressive but less appealing to the "less taxes please" crowd
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Jan 27, 2020 15:27
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SF's opposition to the LPT is pretty ridiculous. Have they ever offered a coherent defense of why they, as a supposed left wing party, aren't in favour of taxing the largest wealth resource in the country? Its one of the most progressive, and hardest to avoid, taxes you can implement. Its policies like that that make me think they're really just a clone of FF waiting to happen when they get into government - slightly left of centre populism, instead of any actual real left wing reform/governance.
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Jan 27, 2020 18:17
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