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https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1220119410142318597 This was absolute gold from the debate last night. Its the top story on the Irish Times today, and front page in a couple of the newspapers. The best analysis I've seen is Leo wasn't panicking because he had taken drugs in the past, he was panicking because he couldn't remember what lies he'd told previously about his drug taking. If he'd just been honest and owned it would have been much much better, instead he just comes across panic-y and skeezy. I think we're heading for a FF/Green/LAB/SD government. Not thrilled about the FF part, but its at least a much more left wing government overall than the current FG one. We should actually get some spending on social housing out and infrastructure of it, instead of just more tax cuts for people in the top income tax bracket. Edit: the bookies currently have the seat projections as: FF: 54 FG: 44 SF: 21 Green: 12 LAB: 7 IND/OTHERS: 20 Blut fucked around with this message at 14:55 on Jan 23, 2020 |
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Jan 23, 2020 14:51
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The complete, and ongoing, electoral failure of the populist right wing nutjobs in Ireland warms my heart. For all the milquetoast centre-right problems with FF/FG they're both still absolutely miles better than the far right nutjobs that have made serious in-roads in democracies all across the world over the last decade or two. Or even just the new breed of center-right extremists in the rest of the Anglosphere like in Oz/the UK / the US.
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Jan 23, 2020 16:40
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Labour, the Soc Dems and the Greens at this stage are all fishing from the same "champagne socialist" largely middle class, centre-left, urban vote. Which unfortunately isn't likely to get much beyond 15-20% total. They're going to have to amalgamate at some stage. Skull Servant has described the FF/FG differences well, but its also worth bearing in mind that between them the two parties are very much on a downward slope in terms of vote share. Between them their vote share has been: 2016 49% 2011 53% 2007 69% 2002 64% 1997 67% 1992 64% 1989 73% 1987 71% 1982(2) 83% 1982 85% 1981 81% 1977 81% etc They dying off of the civil war generation from the 1980s onwards, and now their children from the 2000s onwards, is slowly killing the unquestionably loyal FF/FG party voters. Blut fucked around with this message at 12:52 on Jan 25, 2020 |
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Jan 25, 2020 12:50
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I've had burgundy standard Irish passports since the 1980s. Were green ones even an option in 2006?
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Jan 26, 2020 12:52
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Anecdotally a lot of high earning young professionals I know who would traditionally be FG voters are very angry at being screwed by Dublin rents. They seem to accept that FG and their laissez-faire hands off, the free market will solve everything, approach has completely failed over the last 5 years. And that radical change is needed. FF are too conservative socially to get their votes, so the Greens/SF/SocDems seem to be benefiting the most. The housing crisis is also the one big issue pushing even older middle class people to more left-wing parties that I've noticed. Dublin rents are hurting not just low earners, and not just young people, but also middle class parents because they regularly now have their kids living at home with them into their late 20s.
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Jan 27, 2020 13:14
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SF's opposition to the LPT is pretty ridiculous. Have they ever offered a coherent defense of why they, as a supposed left wing party, aren't in favour of taxing the largest wealth resource in the country? Its one of the most progressive, and hardest to avoid, taxes you can implement. Its policies like that that make me think they're really just a clone of FF waiting to happen when they get into government - slightly left of centre populism, instead of any actual real left wing reform/governance.
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Jan 27, 2020 18:17
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kustomkarkommando posted:I mean there are plenty of arguments against banded property taxes unfairly penalising heavily mortgaged and indebted homeowners as a result of runaway property price inflation that can be put against the LPT - the fact the bands have remained static since 2013 and the subsequent explosion in headline house prices does mean households are getting saddled with increased taxation while still paying down debt accrued from pre-crash mortgages (SF consistently position the LPT as a tax on debt). The common "asset rich, cash poor" argument against property taxes can be quite easily sidestepped by letting LPT go unpaid if people need to, but having it build up and collecting it whenever the property is sold. This has the added benefit of taxing the huge unearned wealth transfer that people inheriting get, since base inheritance tax is so politically hard to increase. In terms of fairness though I do agree a property tax based solely on property value does discriminate against people living in areas with rapid house price inflation, given how overpriced Dublin, Cork and Galway are. A property tax based on the square footage of the property would seem fairer, and might also help dissuade rural McMansion sprawl. And might encourage older couples in big empty houses to downsize. I could understand FG opposing property taxes because it completely plays to their urban, upper middle class base, and centre-right positioning. But SF's opposition, despite their working class voter base and claimed left-wing philosophy, is just pure FF style populism. If SF were actually left-wing they should be a party arguing to implement more taxes on the asset rich, not less.
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Jan 27, 2020 20:03
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A Maria Bailey-esque combination of arrogance and idiocy there. FG really seem to be cornering the market on that demographic.
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Jan 28, 2020 14:11
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If Connolly scraped in above Kyne, and the rest of that remained as is, it'd be a great result. Grealish going out on his ear, along with Peter Casey doing terrible, would just re-enforce theres no place for the sort of dog whistle politics in Ireland.
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Jan 29, 2020 14:05
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The seats don't work out quite exactly aligned with the voting percentages unfortunately. Even at those percentages FF/FG would get 80ish between them due to a better geographical vote distribution, likely enough to block any left wing government from forming. Plus the PBP/AAA types are so dogmatic in their approach I can never see them compromising and going into government. We'd need to see SF/LAB/SD/Greens together polling a bit higher at 45-50% for them to have a chance of forming a government. Its also an online poll which I'd be a bit wary of, they tend to overrepresent SF. But it'd be great if it turned out to be accurate, another milestone in the decline of FF/FG. Blut fucked around with this message at 14:47 on Feb 1, 2020 |
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Feb 1, 2020 14:44
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Mary Lou being on the debate is going to make it great viewing. Both FF and FG will be prioritizing targeting her, but shes the best debater of the 3 so should get some good digs back at them. And it'll presumably have better moderation than that disastrous Virgin Media debate. Should be very entertaining. Its definitely an embarrassing climb down for RTE and their ridiculous "leaders debate" criteria, too. kustomkarkommando posted:Also looks like FG might be pushing Coveney to the front on the campaign to offset Leo Leoing all over the place If Coveney had won the FG leadership race I think they would be in a much, much better position right now. Under him the party probably would have been centerist enough to at least intervene partially in the housing crisis in 2017. Not enough to fix it mind you, but enough so they wouldn't look completely incompetent as they do now after persisting with Leo's hands-off neoliberal approach for far too long. And obviously Coveney actually being capable, and having substance/character, would stand to him a lot more so than Leo's PR obsessed, vacuous, approach.
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Feb 3, 2020 19:41
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That latest poll is great. I'm not an SF voter, and would have some worries about an SF only government, but if somehow the numbers worked out for a coalition with them/LAB/Greens/SocDems it'd be fantastic for the country. Almost 100 years after independence finally a government without FF or FG. Its pretty unlikely mathematically though sadly. I wonder what way FF and FG will play the debate tonight. Do they both focus on attacking SF since they're surging, and risk making themselves look united and SF the agent of change? Do they attack each other, and risk both parties bleeding to SF if any hits land?
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Feb 4, 2020 12:07
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If a smaller party doesn't go into government it will never actually directly influence the way the country is run, though. Particularly when the Irish electoral system, and voting habits, result in coalition governments that give comparatively outsized power to minority partners. Labour, the PDs and the Greens have had far more impact on Ireland than PBP/AAA or the SocDems for example, for that very reason - the minor parties who served in government have actually gotten ministerial positions, and party positions implemented. Its better to go in, get at least some of your core party goals/ideas implemented, and suffer electoral defeat afterwards than to never go in in the first place, if your goal is to actually improve/change the country. Sitting in opposition for decades doesn't achieve anything, other than a few decades of 100k a year salaries for your TDs.
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Feb 5, 2020 00:43
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Failed Imagineer posted:Seems to be working out ok for SF right now. SF's century on the opposition benches has resulted in them achieving jack squat policy-wise as far as running the country goes. The PDs got far more of their policies implemented, despite only having a fraction of the public support, or longevity, of SF. SF's lack of achievements are a great example of the uselessness of sitting in opposition. Even SF themselves have come around to this view, as of late stating they're willing to accept going into coalition as a minor party - because that way they might actually at least influence the country.
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Feb 5, 2020 17:45
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That was quite the weekend. I was in one of the bigger count centers yesterday, there were a lot more Shinners than in previous elections. The party activist demographic across all parties is really changing too, there are a lot less old men than there were a decade ago. Its great to see. FF/SF/Greens is probably the only likely workable majority government now. If certain FF members can convince the rest of the party to do it. The only other functional outcome would be FG agreeing to back FF supply & confidence, then FF + Green + SocDems + a few INDs minority government. LAB are still suffering badly from their last stint in government, so I think will stay out of any arrangement. The S&C would keep SF out, and in theory by the time another election is called in say 3 years the housing crisis should have abated - and the with that the wind gone from SF's sails. FG will be wary of it given the relative hammering FF got for their supply & confidence deal today though, but the combination of avoiding another immediate election (that would likely see strong SF gains) and keeping SF out will tempt them. Paddypower have the FF/SF/Green government as their most likely outcome, but we'll see.
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Feb 11, 2020 00:43
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Foul Ole Ron posted:Working with this, I think FF will want to go for a FF/SF/G coalition. Its the safest for them, is not tainted by the last 10 years and they can use SF/G polices to help mend the FF taint. It's also the worst for SF, who could loose their base support if they "do a deal with the devil" and join with FF for a chance to govern. The Greens will be fine either way. FF's safest option by far is S&C minority government with them running the show. If they can preside over another economic boom for a few years, as the dominant party in government, they should in theory get a much easier ride going into the next election. But it just depends on if they can convince FG, and to a lesser extent the SocDems/INDs, to agree to it. If FF go into a coalition government with SF they risk losing a big chunk of their older, 'NEVER SF', voters to FG - particularly as its going against Martin's repeated promises to not do so. SF would likely get a lot of the credit for any improvements in housing, healthcare etc as both the equal party in government, and as the party with more radical 'change' voter impression of them. FG would also get to sit in opposition and position themselves as the only real centre-right party in the country, against a Dail made up entirely of "leftists". FF would struggle quite badly with this medium/long term. V. Illych L. posted:i really cannot see SF entering government unless they're given the keys to the kingdom. it's easily spun as a sell-out and they need to make sure that it's worth it so FF bleeds instead of them. SF can just stay out of it and try to topple any ramshackle government that comes out of this without their support at the earliest convenient scandal Mary Lou had said they're willing to go into government as a minor coalition partner, pre election day. With their unexpectedly high levels of support that might change. The risk for SF is if they stay out, and an alternative government is formed, this moment may pass. If the Irish economy keeps booming, and the housing crisis is fixed within 18-24 months as is expected, a lot of the new younger, more middle class, SF voters will likely drift back to their more traditional homes in LAB or FG (or else the Greens or SocDems). Polls show most of the new SF voters aren't there for Republican reasons, they're there because of housing. If SF on the other hand go into government and demand Housing, Planning & local Gov as one of their ministries they can claim responsibility for fixing it, and maybe secure the loyalties of those voters for a generation. As well as present themselves as a far more legitimized political party to many voters around the country still worried about their terrorist past, by showing they can be a responsible part of government without the sky falling down. Blut fucked around with this message at 01:45 on Feb 11, 2020 |
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Feb 11, 2020 01:43
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Re: housing market, I'm not defending FG and their idiotic neo-liberal laissez faire approach in any way. They've essentially created this housing market disaster by sitting on their hands up until 2018, and even since then by not emphasizing social housing in any way, shape or form. The HAP is absolutely disastrous. But, that being said, since the housing market started becoming a huge issue for even the upper/middle classes, and, as importantly in FG's eyes, started becoming a major issue for attracting FDI, some movement has been made on it. Housing completions are increasingly rapidly, and are only going to expand. Drive around Dublin now and building sites are everywhere. Vacant lands are finally actually being built on. The problem is its too little, much too late, from FG. Any new FF or SF (or both) government is only going to accelerate this rampening up of construction further, though, at least. Both because its now obviously a huge vote winner, and for more ideological reasons. Social housing will actually get built in large numbers, for the first time in a long time. Within 18-24 months the "crisis" stage should be over hopefully, and we should be returning just to "high rents". Within the lifespan of a new government (4~ years) we should be returning to a more normal market state. edit: some data, for context:  Basically - things are still terrible, but all indications show they are finally starting to turn around. Blut fucked around with this message at 14:42 on Feb 11, 2020 |
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Feb 11, 2020 14:29
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Failed Imagineer posted:I wish I shared the optimism, but I can see a bunch of high-density fancydan flats being built in the radius of Silicon Docks and gently caress all elsewhere (and definitely not in the non-Dublin RPZs). Now this obviously takes some of the worst pressure off a certain segment of the housing market, but it's not what you'd call a holistic solution. So even if the positive trending build data doesn't fill you with optimism, there are two things worth considering: the first is that our outgoing government/minister for health are from the more economically right wing internal grouping, of the most economically right-wing party, in Irish politics. Whoever replaces him literally can't be any worse, ideologically. And will, in all likelihood, be much much better. The second is that Irish politicians of all hues are nothing if not smart, power hungry and self serving. The fact they're all now aware that housing is the dominant issue for the Irish electorate means they'll all be scrambling desperately to fix it, even if they don't at their philosophical core care much for it. kustomkarkommando posted:https://twitter.com/fiachkelly/status/1226994892703924224?s=19 That would be an extremely interesting outcome. If FF supplied S&C there'd need to be a government of 61: SF 37 + Green 12 + SocDem 6 + PBP 5 + a lefty IND or two would do it. I think LAB would stay out. FF in their minds would be giving SF enough rope to hang themselves with, by letting them go into government but making it very precarious. And FF would still maintain some control/influence on the budget. FF would also in theory avoid the backlash of outright coalition with SF. But I wonder how much electoral flak they'd get for participating another S&C agreement. One issue going against it though is I'd wonder if FF&FG would trust SF to lead the Brexit negotiations this year. FG's Neale Richmond was already making noises about that on the Claire Byrne show last night.
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Feb 11, 2020 17:58
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Howlin's a good guy, but dull - and completely associated with the austerity years. He was never more than a placeholder. Labour desperately need someone young, energetic and media friendly to help revitalize the brand. Someone like Stephen Donnelly of his IND/SocDem years basically, but a bit more lefty/working class. But where they're going to get someone like that is another question... If they keep the rule that it has to be a sitting TD Ged Nash is probably the best of the bunch, but mightn't be regarded as secure enough in his seat. Other than that its probably O'Riordan, who is good but a bit dull, and a bit too focused on champagne socialist/identity politics. Hes the favourite with the bookies currently. Alan Kelly is the only other person realistically in the running I think, but hes only ever come across as an egotistical insane person to me. I'd love to hear thats wrong mind you.
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Feb 12, 2020 20:19
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All the signs, to me, are still suggesting SF will pointedly be given the next few weeks to try (and fail) to attempt to put together a coalition of the left. Then, because of the impending Brexit negotiations in late March, FG will reach a deal with FF for the "national interest" to "step up" and provide S&C to an FF+Green+SocDem/INDs minority government for 12/24 months to see Brexit out. That saves everyone from another immediate election, keeps SF out, and keeps FF&FG from having to coalition together. But keeps the reins of power still very safely in FF hands, with significant FG budgetary influence/input. FF&FG are both very keenly aware than any full coalition government with the two of them would result in them both hemorrhaging votes, as any theoretical divisions between the parties break down even further. S&C is a way to ensure both parties get input, and no particularly scary policies are enacted by a government, but one party can still play at being the party of opposition.
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Feb 13, 2020 18:37
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kustomkarkommando posted:https://twitter.com/fiachkelly/status/1229436291995049990?s=19 I still reckon it'll be an FG s&c to FF/Green/SocDem/INDs, the above tweet and a few other rumblings do seem to be pointing that way. I put a tenner on it at 34/1 with paddypower last week, its down to 26/1 now. Definitely worth a punt at those long odds. The RedC poll is horrifying from my perspective as a Labour supporter. 38% of Labour voters are apparently centre-right in their views... I mean, better they're voting LAB than FF or FG at least I guess, but still, gently caress.
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Feb 17, 2020 19:45
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Southpaugh posted:Labour are blairites. They are centre right. Most of the Labour activists I know are from the Workers Party > Democratic Left > Labour absorption family tree, very far from the centre-right. Hell even in the election just gone Labour had a significantly more left-wing policy platform than Sinn Fein. One of those two parties wanted to abolish the local property tax, and reduce income taxes on people earning €90k per year...and it wasn't Labour.
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Feb 18, 2020 12:38
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lemonadesweetheart posted:Labour's track record doesn't hold up and you'd be foolish to take any of what you just said at face value given that history. Labour's track record of being the only major left-wing party in the history of the state to enter government, successfully dragging Irish policy to the left for a century? Those centre-right policy proposals are also directly from SF's policy platform, not Labours, for what its worth. So it doesn't really matter if you believe Labour's claims or not, its SF themselves promoting policies to the right of Blairism. The Question IRL posted:Somebody told me that (allegedly) a lot of the older Labour candidates were originally guys in the IRA or in organized crime and that this was an open secret in the Irish political world. (And it is why Eamon Dunphy made allegations of the like about Ruadhri Quinn in a newspaper article which was subsequently the subject of a huge libel case.) A lot of the senior Labour party leadership this century came into the party when Labour absorbed Democratic Left in 1999. Democratic Left were an offshoot of the Workers Party in 1992, who themselves were an offshoot of Sinn Fein in the 1970s. So technically some of the older guys like Ruadhri Quinn, Pat Rabbitte and Eamon Gilmore could have had IRA links, due to being part of that going way back. Some good background reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workers%27_Party_of_Ireland https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Left_(Ireland)
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Feb 18, 2020 13:17
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Arquinsiel posted:Sorry... what? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_cabinets_since_1919#Cabinets_since_1919
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Feb 18, 2020 14:21
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Arquinsiel posted:No, the bit I'm struggling with is where you think Irish policy has been dragged to the left at all. Labour were in government coalitions in 1948, 1954, 1973, 1981, 1982, 1992, and 1994 before the 2011 mess. They've pretty definitively dragged each government more to the left than it would have been otherwise. A party system that alternated exclusively between FG and FG majority governments over the last century, which is the alternative, would have had even fewer left wing policies implemented. Labour aren't perfect by any stretch, but given the inherent conservatism of the Irish electorate they were probably about as far left as they could go while still regularly getting 10+ TDs elected - and thus actually having the numbers to get into government and change things, even incrementally.
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Feb 18, 2020 15:02
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Arquinsiel posted:I mean they literally legalised slavery as per Irish, EU, and UN definitions of it while Joan Burton was Minister for Social Protection so I'd hate to see the dystopian hellscape you think would have happened if they didn't go into government for 2011... Do you think an FG only government in 2011 would have been more left-wing? Because that was the alternative. What we got was terrible, but what we could have gotten would have been even worse, it would definitely have been a hell of a lot closer to the dystopian neoliberal hellscape of Varadkar's wetdreams. Failed Imagineer posted:It's a little bit telling when one has to appeal to unknowable counterfactuals about how bad things could have been, rather than any concrete political gains. It's a very UK LibDem message, and about as convincing Its pretty far from an unknowable counterfactual when FG are well established as the most economically right wing party in Irish politics. Literally any other party going into government with them drags the government towards the center. FG were on record as advocating for even more cuts to public services during the 2011 government than what we actually got. lemonadesweetheart posted:What policies and which governments? If you have to go back more than 30 years I don't see how you can stand over anything you're actually saying right now. Labour needs to be put out to pasture, it died a long time ago. My point was more SF's party platform for this election was economically to the right of Labour. Which is amusing when SF supporters accuse Labour of being centre-right Blairites. Who does that leave on the left in Irish politics? Labour brought in legislation in every single government they participated in that would not have been brought in under more right-wing governments. To take a few historical examples using only your 30 year criteria, which basically limits us to Labour's time in power in the 1990s: - They brought in the Electoral Act of 1997 which was the first legislation to cap spending at elections, control political donations, and require politicians to reveal their interests. - Proinsias De Rossa as minister for Social Welfare introduced the first National Anti-poverty Strategy (NAPS) in 1997. For the first time Government acknowledged poverty and set out targets to reduce it and its causes. - In 1995 Mervyn Taylor, as Minister for Equality and Law reform introduced the Equality Legislation which for the first time outlawed discrimination against people with disabilities, gays and lesbians, Travellers, ethnic minorities and other minorities. - Labour were a driving force in pushing for and supporting the Fifteenth Amendment of the Constitution of Ireland that removed the constitutional prohibition on divorce. etc etc. If you go off and read up on the achievements of any of the other Labour coalition governments you can find similar. Again, they're far from perfect - but when the alternative is a century of only FF&FG Labour are pretty much the best we as a country got.
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Feb 18, 2020 16:10
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Its Scoil Chaitriona in Dublin 9. https://twitter.com/NoelRock/status/1234184230168559617
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Mar 2, 2020 00:49
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kustomkarkommando posted:Apparently Mary Lou's kids attend the affected school? quote:
WWN ahead of the curve here as usual: https://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2020/02/27/sinn-fein-have-coronavirus-pass-it-on-varadkar-tells-media/
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Mar 2, 2020 18:29
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The Question IRL posted:I do agree with ISF. What is up with all these schools with kids going on ski trips for Mid Term? Its not that expensive in the grand scheme of things, its a skill best to learn while youngish, and its much more fun as a group activity. So it does make a lot of sense as a school trip. But it is a bit bougie yeah, the boom's back baby and all that I guess.
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Mar 2, 2020 18:54
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kustomkarkommando posted:Public means taxpayer funded with no fees but it's quite complex with about half being voluntary, privately owned but publically financed to cover salaries and expenses, and rest being directly state owned and funded. Its worth noting fully private schools along the UK/US line are starting to spread into Ireland now too. Nord Anglia in Sandyford is the highest profile one to date: https://www.nordangliaeducation.com/schools/dublin/international/admissions/our-fees-2019-20 They're not taking any state funding at all, so have complete control over their own administration. Their fees are also an order of magnitude higher than the traditional private schools like Blackrock college, Clongowes etc to make up for that. They're very much aimed at the new international, tech/finance executive class children rather than the traditional Irish upper-middle class.
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Mar 3, 2020 16:17
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The Question IRL posted:I came across this article. PROFILE: The inside story of Kate O’Connell’s fall Posted by John McGuirk McGuirk is one of the more vocal, more insane, super conservative Catholic mouthpieces in Ireland these days. I'd take anything he writes with an absolutely massive grain of salt. Edit: not that I'm defending O'Connell in any way mind you. Just that its absolutely not worth anyone reading a 1000+ word hit piece written by this nutter. Blut fucked around with this message at 22:56 on Mar 3, 2020 |
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Mar 3, 2020 22:52
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Arquinsiel posted:It actually belongs to Snackbox Tim, the man who took lunch breaks while on hunger strike. McGuirk is most famous for getting booted out of Young Fine Gael and Ógra Fianna Fáil at the same time for pulling the same old "anonymous concernd member" bullshit emails that he tries to this day. Except... both parties noticed he was a member of the other. McGuirk has had a number of hilarious (slash awful) moments. This was a good one too: He was spokesman for Save the 8th, which campaigned against the thirty-sixth amendment of the constitution of Ireland. During the campaign, McGuirk stated "If Dublin Central is 75% yes on the day, I will never take a political job again".Turnout was 64.1% and the amendment was approved by a 66.4% majority nationally, with 76.5% approving in Dublin Central.
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Mar 4, 2020 13:00
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kustomkarkommando posted:Martin beginning to publicly inch open the door to coalition with FG seems to have provoked some reaction Fingers crossed they. Both for the entertainment value, and to do us all a favour by keeping FG out of government.
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Mar 5, 2020 23:39
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Very interesting. A rushed national government to fight corona would be a great cover for FF&FG bringing SF in "against their word". Better to have SF inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in and all that, it would in theory prevent SF from growing their support base as the main opposition party nicely. Rumours are that the Greens are playing hardball in negotiations, because they're pretty worried about getting enough of their members on board to vote for an FF/FG/Green coalition of no change. The Indo this week reported that the Greens were demanding no tax cuts at all, that all those funds be used for green initiatives. So maybe SF mightn't be much worse in the eyes of FF/FG, SF are at least in favour of crowd pleasing tax cuts...
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Mar 8, 2020 19:06
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https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1237428869889744897 Looks like we might have an FF&FG government by the end of the week according to leaks coming from all over the place today.
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Mar 10, 2020 19:28
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Southpaugh posted:But I think the misinformation and general scaremongering going around is very destructive to society. The media are happy to frighten and traumatize people just to be talking about the new big global worry. I completely agree with this. Coronavirus has had 4,368 deaths worldwide as of today, the "normal" flu kills 600,000 people a year. Coronavirus will have to kill two hundred times more people than it already has, in this calendar year alone, to be slightly more deadly than a normal flu season - which we completely ignore every year. The last figures I saw from Italy a few days ago had the average age of death as 81 years old, the youngest person 66. Basically people who are high risk from any sickness in winter anyway. This isn't like the 1918 Spanish Flu, which was actually killing young healthy people in droves. A public awareness campaign emphasizing hand washing, coughing into elbows, using disinfectant wipes etc to help reduce transmission is completely warranted. Thats low cost (in every sense) and high reward. Its something people should be doing anyway, to reduce the spread of all germs. But completely shutting down entire countries is fully down to the sensationalist 24 hour news media frenzy.
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Mar 11, 2020 14:20
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OwlFancier posted:Though if you bear in mind the infection rate is exponential and the death rate will likely be too, you could well be on course to kill that many people, and that's on top of a normal flu season. The death rate is only exponential if the disease keeps expanding infinitely. Which it isn't.  China, with a population of 1.386 billion people has stabilized at 20 deaths a day for over a week now. Thats almost a statistical rounding error in a population of their size. If Ireland has a similar death rate that would give us 1/280th of that. So approximately 0.07 deaths a day, once things stabilize. China's total deaths to date is 3,158. Which, per capita for Ireland, would be 11 deaths total. Basically a single bad car crash. And again, for context, the 'normal' flu kills approx 100,000 people a year in China every year. So given the current death numbers, and their low growth rate, its extremely, extremely, unlikely Corona comes anywhere near this. If someone near and dear to you suffers an early death it is always terrible. But lets be realistic here - whats likely to happen in an Irish context is we have 10-50 (at absolute max) people who are already in their 80s die. No difference from a normal bad flu season.
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Mar 11, 2020 18:50
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OwlFancier posted:Have you looked at why that's happening in China? The specific efforts they're going to do ensure that happens? Because it doesn't do that by itself. Its unfortunately not possible to point to an example where China did nothing and daily deaths started going down anyway because the counterfactual doesn't exist, but other countries aren't intervening and are doing fine - Thailand for example had its first case on the 13th of January, the first case of Coronavirus outside of China. And as of now they have a grand total of 70 confirmed cases, from a population of 70million, despite no widescale domestic preventative measures being in place. All signs show that the virus will burn itself out, the same way flu does, once it reaches a certain point. Death rates aren't going to grow exponentially until they consume the human race, as you seem to think. The draconian countermeasures only serve to flatten the death curve. My point isn't that shutting down entire countries is sensationalist and wrong because nobody will die. Its that when 600,000+ people a year die from the normal flu, and absolutely nothing is done, then it makes no logical sense to shut down entire countries for this - when its very, very unlikely to kill anywhere near that number. The big factor driving the massive overreaction is media frenzy.
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Mar 12, 2020 13:34
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Foul Ole Ron posted:There is a snap chat doing the rounds of a army dude giving orders about Monday, it's not a lock down sources say.  Rumours so far are they'll be posted to hospitals and possibly shopping centers/pharmacies to "maintain order" (protect the toilet paper). Rumours are also that we could easily end up in a situation like Italy though where they're enforcing keeping people off the streets, if the gov decides to make the lockdown more severe next week.
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Mar 13, 2020 19:58
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| # ¿ May 21, 2024 04:34 |
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FF&FG will use Corona as an excuse to form a "national government", with or without the support of the Greens. They can ride roughshod over any objections from their members now "in the national interest". And then even if they don't have the Greens support and are a minority they'll just dare the other parties to vote the government down - nobody is going to want to take the blame for collapsing a government in a time of crisis like this. Then 6 months down the line when the crisis has passed they'll decide everything is actually working out fine, so they might as well stay in power. Probably by just roping in a few dodgy rural INDs to make up the numbers. Prepare for 5 more years of Leo 
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Mar 15, 2020 15:24
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