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  OKAY IT'S OVER A WEEK LATE BUT IT'S ELECTION TIME - VOTE ON SATURDAY 8th FEBRUARY Leo has gone and done it lads, the madman thinks he can win. The basics again for foreigners - Ireland is a parliamentary republic where members are elected to the lower house, Dáil Éireann, through the Single Transferable Vote which is basically preference voting in multi-member constituencies to give a quasi proportional result. 157 Teachtaí Dála (TDs) are elected excluding the speaker. There's an upper house and a president but really they have the combined powers of a fella shouting at you from the across the street so let's not get into them. The Taoiseach is the prime minister and is elected by the Dáil after an election. No single party has commanded a majority for decades and coalition governments have been the norm for a long time. LAST TIME ON IRISH POLITICS: Enda Kenny led the Fine Gael-Labour coalition to a sound thumping at the polls and a deadlocked result leading to a few weeks of arguing back and forth until Fianna Fáil agreed to allow them to continue as a minority government but watch out any day now we will pull the plug. Then Leo came along and foreign countries noticed for a bit. Also managed to legalize abortion. Then the Brits got at it again so everyone agreed to maybe not have an election until this Brexit thing got ironed out. The government has now decided that it is ironed out enough to have a vote, coincidentally just days before a vote of no confidence in a government minister which seemed likely to pass was about to be tabled which of course is completely unrelated. The current composition of the Dáil:  Who are these idiots again?  Fine Gael: Centre right, liberal conservative, permissive on social issues but love a nice juicy tax cut, traditionally the party of "fiscal responsibility" who find themselves being in the uncomfortable position of the economy no longer being in recession and people actually wanting them to ramp up public spending while they grit their teeth and nod along hoping that's enough. Have managed to stay in power for a little under nine years now, initially in a coalition with Labour and in minority since 2016, which is more than double what they have ever managed before in the history of the state. Seem to actually think of themselves as cool now? Very alarming Leader: Leo Varadkar (current Taoiseach) 2016 Vote Share: 25.5% Current Seats: 47 European affiliation: EPP  Fianna Fáil: Big tent nationalists, conservative liberals, tend towards conservative social values but not afraid of significant public spending (though usually of the unstructured pork barrel variety coupled with generous tax breaks for businesses) and a couple of well stuffed brown envelopes slid under the table. Currently propping up the FG minority government with a confidence and supply deal thrown together after no party could form a straight coalition - FF aren't particularly happy about this but have little to no other option. Somehow have managed to rebuild their voting base after the whole Giant Financial Crisis They Absolutely Caused thing and are now in poll position to oust FG. Have a tendenacy for their leaders to be dragged into corruption inquiries Leader: Yes somehow still Micheál Martin 2016 Vote Share: 24.3% Current Seats: 45 European affiliation: ALDE  Sinn Féin: Left-wing nationalist, Republican, fans of increased public spending coupled with tax cuts for low income earners offset with income hikes for the top percentiles (but don't mention corporation tax). Been having a bit of a rough one with a low level stream of local government defections with allegations of internal party bullying getting thrown around, saw their overall vote share in local council elections last year drop by just over a third nationally and over a half in Dublin where they fell from largest party to 4th largest. Managed to win a vital by-election after this against the odds so may be rebounding? Polls are looking good but they have a tendency to overestimate SF support. Leader: Mary Lou McDonald 2016 Vote Share: 13.8% Current Seats: 22 European affiliation: GUE/NGL  Labour: Nominally democratic socialist but has never been particularly radical, currently curled up in a ball sobbing in the corner. Dealt a devastating blow in the 2016 election falling from 19.4% to 6.6% and being reduced to only 7 seats, their worst result in the history of the state, after coalitioning with Fine Gael and falling into all that austerity. Currently lead by "safe pair of hands" Brendan Howlin who, fair play to him, has at least been attempting to right the party policy-wise and they will be privately hoping to maybe get a few seats. The dread spectre of a leadership challenge from the much despised Alan Kelly still hovers over the party. Leader: Brendan Howlin 2016 Vote Share: 6.6% Current Seats: 7 European affiliation: PES  Solidarity-PBP: How many Trot groups does it take to form a political party? Turns out like 6. A hybrid party that groups together the factional world of Irish socialism, Solidarity-PBP have done pretty decently for themselves and are front and centre in Dublin protests over the housing crisis so will be hoping to hold steady though they experienced a significant slide at the local elections last year that saw them lose more than half their councillors nationally which, if played out in the general, could spell the end for them. PBP's left-wing support for Brexit may float back up to harm them during the multiparty debates. Leader: No Bosses, No Masters 2016 Vote Shate: 3.9% Current Seats: 6 European affiliation: European Anti-Capitalist Left - apparently this is a thing?  Green Party: The one's to watch in this election. Formerly a minor player in the pre-Financial Crisis days who decided to go into coalition with FF and well you can guess how that went. Had a small come back in 2016 when they won two seats but surprised everyone by winning 11% of the vote in the European elections (running to within 6k of SF) and picking up two MEPs while SF only got one, proving their transfer friendliness might see them pick up significant seats if repeated in a general election specifically in Dublin. Also topped the poll in the recent Dublin Final by-election and gained an extra TD. Time for a Green Wave? Sources say who knows Leader: Really, Eamon Ryan? Can they not put that Saoirse woman in charge instead. 2016 Vote Share: 2.7% Current Seats: 3 European affiliation: European Green Party  Social Democrats: Find Labour too broken and fundamentally un-saveable and Sinn Féin a bit flag-hugging and fond of balaclavas? Say hello to the Social Democrats. Now purged from HE WHO SHALL NOT BE NAMED this is an important election for them - their only TDs remain the party leaders who formed the grouping after being established as elected figures and they really need to get at least one more TD voted in on their platform to validate the project (failed to do so in the 2016 election). Did decently in the 2019 council elections, pretty much taking the seats Soldiarity-PBP lost, and are relatively transfer friendly so might squeak one. Leader: Catherine Murphy & Roísín Shortall 2016 Vote Share: 3.0% Current Seats: 2  Aontú: Like Sinn Féin but hate all this "womens rights" cosmopolitan nonsense and think someone really needs to do something to save the wee babies? Votáil Aontú. Formed by an SF TD kicked out of the party after refusing to vote in favour of abortion reform even after the referendum they've basically taken SF and injected a bit more Catholicism, still left leaning and populist inclined just with a lot more prolife banners. Would be surprising if they manage to get anyone elected outside their leader. Leader: Peadar Tóibín 2016 Vote Share: N/A Current Seats: 1 INDEPENDENTS: The humble, often eccentric, independent is an important figure in Irish politics. STV makes it easier for them to get elected and the tendency towards coalition governments means that they can often extract some extremely juicy sweeteners from parties in exchange for their support and often for a government to survive they need to woo this gaggle of malcontents and chancers. With the recent changes in the organizing of Dáil groupings after the 2016 election allowing the formation of a variety of Technical Groups for independents to club together for speaking rights we've seen a couple of factions develop which, while not covering all independents, are useful to keep in mind.  The Independent Alliance: The dream of the Independent - having so much leverage you can actually be given a cabinet position. The Alliance are absolutely NOT A PARTY and have no cohesive ideology to speak of but broadly agree on some vague anti-corruption, anti-poverty guidelines but importantly gave FG the vital votes they needed to win confidence votes when/if FF abstain. Managed to get Minister of Transport out of it so pretty good deal for them. One third of the grouping already announced they won't be running. Current Seats: 3  Independents 4 Change - The Technical Group: ACTUALLY A POLITICAL PARTY but uh not really. Registered a while back for ease of campaigning but functions like the Independent Alliance in that they are extremely loose. Members vary from explicitly left wing to left-leaning populists. Two of their star TDs where successful elected to the European parliament so unclear if they can hold their 2016 result without their personal voter draw. Though they only have one formal TD their aligned technical group in Dáil brings in several more like minded individuals who won't sign up to the formal party structure Current Seats: 5 (1 party member + 4 aligned)  Rural Independents Group: Behold rural Ireland. A grab bag of politicians we are all embarrassed about emblemized by their most prominent TDs, the climate-change-denying-diesel-sucking-shotgun-firing-sure-me-dad-used-to-drive-drunk Healy-Rae brothers - scions of a political dynasty that comfortably takes two out of five seats in the benighted kingdom of Kerry. Also includes Noel Grealish who has more than once accused Nigerian immigrants of all being criminals and Michael Lowry, a man who has been involved in so many corruption and tax evasion scandals all the major parties go out of their way every election to loudly say they will never ever work with him. Current Seats: 7 BUT WHAT ABOUT THE POLLS?  IrishTimes  Behaviour&Attitudes Its.... Happening?? Obligatory HE FIXED THE ROAD
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Jan 23, 2020 13:10
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Things that have happened so far. Fine Gael posted a video so bad they deleted it and apologised for being poo poo at social media https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1218483930862669824 The forces of evil unite https://twitter.com/gemmaod1/status/1219937699777347585 Former MMA fighter and SF councillor shocks no-one by being a racist and getting suspended from the party after questioning Varadkar's blood loyalty almost immediately after election is called Michael Healy-Rae releases new election song https://www.independent.ie/videos/i...y-38881370.html
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Jan 23, 2020 13:21
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Also add Saoirse McHugh to the list of people who should be elected along with Gary Gannon imo https://twitter.com/ellenmcoyne/status/1219998998406291456?s=19
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Jan 23, 2020 13:57
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lemonadesweetheart posted:I thought Renua was gone. Renua have pretty much imploded so I have no idea why B&A still poll for them. Or new crazy enemies are Peter Casey, hedging his bets and running in both Donegal and Dublin, and the infowars alliance of Gemma/Waters - James Reynolds' National Party will be running again as will the Irish Freedom Party (of Irexit fame). Honestly can't see the populist right grabbing any obvious seats. Casey might be in with a shout in Donegal but he's relying on the Inishowen vote which already delivers two TDs (SF and FF) so a third player for that voting cohort in the wider constituency might not work out for him mathematically and once he hits the Dail he'll probably convert into a typical grumpy independent. kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 15:59 on Jan 23, 2020 |
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Jan 23, 2020 15:56
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Also do we take bets over Simon Coveney launching a heave against Leo if FG slips out of prime position
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Jan 23, 2020 15:58
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Venomous posted:Not sure if I've written this right, but am I right in thinking that Ireland's not experiencing the same kind of populist/nationalist resurgence as the rest of Europe because FF and FG never stopped being nationalist parties, especially after they joined the EU? Like, they successfully married Irish nationalism with pro-Europeanism, so there hasn't been any sort of backlash against the EU? I mean there has been backlash against the EU, talk of negotiating a beef deal with Argentina has enraged farmers, probably more just that the Irish public is quite aware of the relative fragility of the Irish economy after experiencing the historic recessions of the 80s and beforehand and the half hearted flirtations with autarky that haunted the post-war period. I think if you try the "leave the eu and go our own way" line sinks like a lead balloon as people realise how much we profit from leveraging our position within the EU to strengthen the economy - this is also why even SF are reluctant to talk about the generous corporation tax regime in much detail. As a caveat people are still passionate about Irish neutrality and the idea of a European Armed Forces would be heavily rejected I feel
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Jan 23, 2020 17:58
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I'm also hesitant about this kind of talk because it has a tendency to stumble into the "sure we're not really racist" which is an absolute loving lie. I frequently find the level of casual and explicit racism that gets chucked around specifically about black people, and especially African immigrants, to be really loving high compared even with other European states and the amount of people who honestly dont see the problem baffles me. I mean remember that time Enda Kenny called Patrice Lumumba the n word in a "joke" and absolutely no one remembers this
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Jan 23, 2020 21:14
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Skull Servant posted:EDIT: Irish Times are reporting that a poll in Donegal has SF picking up a second seat there, taking from either FF or Pringle. Casey is on 2%, being outpolled by the Aontú candidate ón 3%. Aye this sounds about right tbh - Donegal really should be two SF seats and they completely hosed their vote management at the last election by running three candidates and managed to turn 1 and two third quota into a single TD. Pearse Doherty has the profile to get in comfortably, FG usually can scrape together enough votes to get a candidate in then there are two candidates running from the immediate area Casey runs around (the Inishowen peninsula) - one FF's top performer who will probably finish first for them, the other SF's number two performer who will be fishing for local voters to boost SF voters from elsewhere in the county. Casey just get's squeezed out by the localism of the race and his appeal, though significant in places like Inishowen based on what I've heard chatting to people from there, doesn't trump the old parish politics.
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Jan 24, 2020 01:28
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Miftan posted:How strict are the parties in Ireland wrt removing the whip-equivalent? If the greens go into coalition with FF/FG and that nice lady from the first page doesn't vote with them is she likely to get booted? Though I gather being an independent in Ireland isn't the career ender it is in the UK since some of them actually get elected? Yeah the whip in Irish parties is pretty drat strong and a lot less forgiving than the UK, the Dail doesn't really have backbench party rebels like Westminster as rather than having three levels of whips theres just one - usually you vote against the party line and you get expelled from the parliamentary party immediately, even abstaining without permission is extremely dodgy. If she refused to vote for the parties choice of taoiseach I would say that's an immediate booting tbh You do occasionally get times when the whip is not applied and parties allow a free vote but that's usually for issues like abortion or traditional matters of conscience when religious belief starts getting tangled up kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 09:21 on Jan 24, 2020 |
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Jan 24, 2020 09:18
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Miftan posted:I was more thinking voting for the coalition but not any poo poo policies. Are the whips usually applied formally in votes or just taken as standard that you'll vote with the party? If the former, then how often? Just big votes or "everything gently caress you". Just wondering what the wiggle room is. Not that it matters really, no party will tolerate someone playing silly buggers unless it's a strategy to appear to not go along with the coalition's worst bits while stoll waving them through. They are pretty much universally applied, exceptions are rare. There has been some talk about maybe loosing them in general, it got quite bad for example badly during the closing few years of the FG-Labour coalition when they started having to kick out TDs for voting in favour of reforming abortion laws (the coalition's legal advice said must be done through a referendum so they couldnt legislative action without one as unconstitutional). If your in a junior party in a coalition your watched like a hawk to enforce party discipline, an example I can think in this government is the Occupied Territories Bill that criminalised trade with Israeli settlements in the west bank that the government opposed but Independent Alliance supported - they had to negotiate with FG to be allowed to abstain and that took a few weeks
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Jan 24, 2020 09:56
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https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1221225091842945030 late night Red C poll before the papers today. Sinn Fein surge confirmed by all the major pollsters now.
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Jan 26, 2020 01:33
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Coohoolin posted:From what I've read they wouldn't be able to form a minority government with 44 TDs, even if they all get elected, is that the case? If so, what's the best case scenario? Mary Lou has been pretty clearly doing the work within the party to move them towards coalition based on delivering housing and health reform, the previous line was they would never enter a coalition unless they where the majority party but that was quite openly shelved at their last ard fheis. From her speech last year: quote:There are some who believe we should never talk to other parties about government. Coalition with FG remains insanely unlikely but there is enough chatter about a potential coalition with FF, even among some prominent FF members like O'Cuiv and others who would prefer it over a deal with FG, that Martin has been forced to adopt a hard never never ever line publicly during the election. Part of it is really looking at the mathematics of the results and honestly if SF don't win a majority it's gonna be extremely unlikely they will ever get the support needed to become a minority government and there's only so far they can go without scoring some policy victories, something next to impossible to achieve from the opposition benches.
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Jan 26, 2020 03:09
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And really saying we will never coalition just sounds a bit disingenuous in Irish politics where you absolutely need to if you have serious aspirations for power, which SF most assuredly do
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Jan 26, 2020 03:10
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The Question IRL posted:Speaking of, is one of SF's big platforms still the removal of the Special Criminal Court They've moved down to simply reviewing them rather than outright abolition this election. Re: the red c poll also some interesting shifts in the tables https://twitter.com/GerardBrady100/status/1221402958832816133?s=19 ABC1 support for SF at 17% to FF/FGs 21% each, compared to C2DE support at 22% for SF and 28% for FF - does seem like the housing promises are hitting home for the middle classes. Also SF leading the 18-34 cohort by 35% (with FF and FG both sitting at only ~14%)
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Jan 27, 2020 11:54
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I also think SF's commitment to outright abolish LPT is probably helping them with middle class homeowners as well tbh - the Greens and SocDems have adopted replacing it with a Land Value Tax which is probably arguably more progressive but less appealing to the "less taxes please" crowd
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Jan 27, 2020 15:27
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Blut posted:SF's opposition to the LPT is pretty ridiculous. Have they ever offered a coherent defense of why they, as a supposed left wing party, aren't in favour of taxing the largest wealth resource in the country? Its one of the most progressive, and hardest to avoid, taxes you can implement. I mean there are plenty of arguments against banded property taxes unfairly penalising heavily mortgaged and indebted homeowners as a result of runaway property price inflation that can be put against the LPT - the fact the bands have remained static since 2013 and the subsequent explosion in headline house prices does mean households are getting saddled with increased taxation while still paying down debt accrued from pre-crash mortgages (SF consistently position the LPT as a tax on debt). The follow through on scrapping LPT and replacing it with a more equitable property taxation system is one of those things Irish politics also struggles with, the dread spectre of New Taxes. Social Justice Ireland have been pushing a Site Value Tax for a while now which really is why the other smaller parties have been adopting it to replace LPT rather than just scraping it, considering most of them have been adopting policies of "no higher taxes for the average worker" rather than tax cuts that's an easier sell for them than SF who prefer a model of trimming taxes for low incomes.
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Jan 27, 2020 19:19
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Quick reminder the first multi party leaders debate is on RTE One at half nine tonight with FF, FG, Labour, SF, The Greens, Solidarity-PBP (Boyd Barrett on duty) and the SocDems (Shortall for them). No Aontu which I'm sure Breda O Brien is probably disappointed about
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Jan 27, 2020 21:02
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Boyd Barrett always wins the audience in these things
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Jan 27, 2020 23:12
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Mary Lou going consistently on the attack against FF and FG's records in every answer doesn't seem to be playing fantastically with the audience, Howlin and Barrett seem to have gotten more applause
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Jan 27, 2020 23:34
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Not sure you could pinpoint who won last night's debate - Boyd Barrett seemed to win the audience, Mary Lou did a decent turn - Shortall definately finished bottom though in terms of performance SocDem/Labour (re)merger if they can't get any more TDs?
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Jan 28, 2020 10:16
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https://twitter.com/ellenmcoyne/status/1222057272924393472?s=19 https://twitter.com/ellenmcoyne/status/1222059154329808902?s=19 FG media training paying off
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Jan 28, 2020 13:32
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I sense a war of the sums on the fringes - SF's manifesto commits to building 100k houses in five years at the cost of €6.5bn drawn from general taxation while Labour is going for 80k at the cost of uh €16bn (drawn from the strategic investment fund, borrowing through the EIB and a new investment vehicle for credit unions) Waiting to see to full manifesto commit for SF cause 65k as cost of construction seems cheap
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Jan 28, 2020 18:15
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Usual caveats about small sample size as per the Donegal poll but none the less https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1222234823693082625?s=19 Social Democrats candidate biting at the heels of O Cuiv and a definite green surge there
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Jan 29, 2020 11:16
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Blut posted:If Connolly scraped in above Kyne, and the rest of that remained as is, it'd be a great result. Part of me feels like the relatively low numbers for O Cuiv, sitting on what he got during the great FF bonfire of 2011 even with all the FF poll jumps, might mean the poll is a little bit to urban skewed. Grealish may yet get his numbers
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Jan 29, 2020 14:46
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Noone effectively subtly given the boot with FG dropping their preference instructions for her constituency https://twitter.com/fiachkelly/status/1222599545403645952?s=19 This nugget is the real gold though quote:During the meetings, Ms Noone is understood to have asked that she be given the opportunity to explain herself in a broadcast media interview.
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Jan 29, 2020 21:51
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The spiciest poll https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1223400971465822213?s=19 FF+FG = 42% SF + Labour + Solidarity-PBP + SocDems + Greens = 46% Dare we dream of an actual left government
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Feb 1, 2020 13:33
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The big question is if all these swings are front-loaded in like Dublin and the border counties or further afield - that TG4 Galway poll hasnt made me feel overly confident about their chances further out from commuterland but i'm just a natural pessimist on this stuff really. SF getting all their first prefs frontloaded on solo run candidates would be good for the other left leaning parties if they transfer down properly but could mean they underperform in total. Should expect to see them overcome their transfer toxicity i'd expect
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Feb 1, 2020 23:28
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https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1223753771521597440 it's happening However notable collapse in S-PBP votes there, weird Aontu numbers - doesn't make an SF lead coalition of the other seem viable compared to the last numbers
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Feb 2, 2020 01:08
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Election is now officially gonna get well mental for the last week
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Feb 2, 2020 01:09
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I was greatly disappointed to discover he wasn't some hurling old boy trying to remind everyone he used to play county but rather just a run of the mill insane right winger
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Feb 3, 2020 14:29
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Also looks like FG might be pushing Coveney to the front on the campaign to offset Leo Leoing all over the place https://twitter.com/FineGael/status/1224020528622600192?s=19
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Feb 3, 2020 14:32
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https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224359304372932610?s=19 RTE climbing down? Argument to be made that staying clear of the Leo/Martin slagging match is helping them to position outside of the mudslinging establishment but could also help position them as a major "party of government" I imagine it's gonna be none stop attack SF though
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Feb 3, 2020 18:21
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Foul Ole Ron posted:It's anyone's chance now, the greens and Labour had their chance, could it be the Shinners now? Part of me is reminded of the big labour swell in 2011 where people just said "gently caress it lets try something different" - the potential unsubstainability of that in the long run I think should make the Shinners a bit cautious, I think their candidate startegy (which is actually pretty sound considering their past results and aims for modest yet still significant gains) shows even they are a bit unprepared for the big jump in polling numbers being shown.
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Feb 3, 2020 20:06
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Also lol looks like government formation may be getting delayed as Tipp is being postponed https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224399444017283072?s=19
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Feb 3, 2020 20:10
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https://twitter.com/serentrippety/status/1224442549911244806?s=19 Holy poo poo
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Feb 3, 2020 22:23
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Stanley Kubrick's the shinning
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Feb 3, 2020 22:26
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Foul Ole Ron posted:gently caress you Leo, your a tofffffffffff! as a trinity graduate I don't think a party led by a private schoolgirl from churchtown who went to TCD should start calling people toffs but also gently caress leo
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Feb 3, 2020 22:46
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https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1224449175829401601?s=19 SF out in clear front for every age bracket under 50
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Feb 3, 2020 22:53
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lemonadesweetheart posted:Is leader of the opposition based on seats won? Be hilarious if FF/FG manage to lose and get the same number of seats. Technically the Dail has Leaders In Opposition with flexible speaking rights, it is based on seats won but if someone is dead even they would just get the same rights as each other
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Feb 4, 2020 13:58
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Seat projections from paddy power https://twitter.com/adriancummins/status/1224703208276316162?s=19 Seems to factor SFs unused surpluses cutting towards FF over transferring left which could be an issue tbh
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Feb 4, 2020 16:25
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