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Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

I can't remember if China basically won't let a movie be shown if it has a map that doesn't contain the dashed line or if including it gains favors and makes it more likely to get shown there.

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Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

China weighed on Vietnam's response to the map but it's all so dumb I couldn't bring myself to click on the article.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

You know, I don't think I've seen that feelings phrase used in a while but yeah they're still meeting criticism with petty revenge tactics.

The two big stories from China have been one, the birth rate:

quote:

China's fertility rate is estimated to have dropped to a record low of 1.09 in 2022, the National Business Daily said on Tuesday, a figure likely to rattle authorities as they try to boost the country's declining number of new births.

The state-backed Daily said the figure from China's Population and Development Research Center put it as having the lowest fertility level among countries with a population of more than 100 million.

And two, the underperforming economy. As usual obfuscation by the state means it's difficult to know exactly how bad things are. The yuan has performed terribly against the dollar so state run banks have been selling foreign currency and buying the yuan in order to prop it up. Evergrande finally filed for bankruptcy in US court. They owe $340 billion. A great deal of China's recent growth has been via property development via massive borrowing so for it's #2 developer to be up against the wall is a poor sign for not only property development but the larger economy. Evergrande has a lot of business that has nothing to do with property development also.

Pretty good article on the latter topic here https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/08/china-never-grand/

One good quote but there are many

quote:

China’s $60 trillion property edifice is by far the largest asset class in the world.

It accounts for half of the world’s entire property sales, an astonishing figure given that China’s workforce is already contracting and net migration from the countryside has stopped.

The developers have debts of $5 trillion. By comparison, this is six times greater than America’s $800bn subprime property debt on the eve of the Lehman crisis.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

I left off record youth unemployment. That's been in the news a lot and the fact China decided to stop publishing statistics on it after hitting record highs.

So 3 things - birth rates plummeting, unemployment among the young spiking and a highly uncertain real estate market which could impact the real estate /development industry, local government income, and personal wealth.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Methylethylaldehyde posted:

The three key ingredients for making failed state s'mores. All you have to do once they're combined is add fire.
There’s some doom articles. I don’t know what to believe. I think for me it comes down to could things get bad enough for the Chinese people to buck the increasingly authoritarian government and it’s policies , particularly after having the taste of relative freedom and a surge of prosperity. No idea. There seems to be a lot of folks that truly buy into a strong government is good through thick and thin but I’m not there or living it as a local so?

Also the US did something from WSJ:

quote:

U.S. to Sanction Chinese Officials for Forcible Assimilation of Tibetans

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Coolguye posted:

people have been predicting doom in china for decades and it has literally never turned out the way they say or even in the same ballpark. if you want to stand on solid prognosticating ground, look at what the CCP is actively claiming it will do, and look at how history has turned out for them on that. and even then, you're liable to be proven wrong on some level, because "you don't understand china" extends to the Chinese government that has cultivated a culture of systemic lying for generations.
Yeah I think the most likely path moving forward is more of the same - central gov gets stronger, politically connected get wealthier and the average person's life gets a little worse some times, a little better others. But individual rights and expression post Xi: If things are worse for people then it's hard to imagine a government that relaxes anything and instead clamps down on information, money, travel, religion whatever even more.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

A piece on the Belt Road Initiative 10 years later. The pattern is a large loan to a small nation protected by commodities or other strings, the country's leader gets a huge kick back, the nation gets substandard infrastructure and bad terms leading to crushing debt.


quote:

As the celebrations for the BRI’s 10th anniversary kick off, attending countries would do well to ask whether their citizens have anything to gain from 'win-win' cooperation with China, Elaine Dezenski writes.

Xi Jinping’s Third Belt and Road Initiative Forum — and the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) itself — launched on Tuesday, featuring a long guest list that includes Vladimir Putin and the Taliban.

In the decades since it was first proposed, the initiative and the world around it have changed profoundly. Optimism and ambition for the BRI have been replaced by broken promises, cracked dams, and wrecked state treasuries throughout the emerging economies and trading partners who took a chance on Xi’s signature infrastructure and investment program.

Introduced as a means to fund much-needed infrastructure and connectivity, the BRI has imposed a staggering bill on the countries that signed up for it.

Xi claimed at the First BRI Forum that the initiative would establish a “stable and sustainable financial safeguard system that keeps risks under control.” Instead, the opposite occurred.

Extreme public debt driving already poor nations into bankruptcy
Unlike Western lenders that often provide direct aid or subsidized loans, China lent $1 trillion (€948 billion) to cash-strapped nations at commercial rates.

Much more secret debt might be hidden from view, as a 2021 study suggested that as much as half of BRI loans are off the books and omitted from official statistics.

Instead of seeing clearly what is owed, we see the impact on nations, as Zambia and Sri Lanka are driven into bankruptcy and default.


Argentina, Ethiopia, Kenya, Malaysia, Montenegro, Pakistan, and Tanzania are all dealing with extreme debt-to-GDP ratios that force crippling decisions in order to service the debt.

Since 2010, public debt has tripled in sub-Saharan Africa, driven largely by Chinese lending, and 60% of BRI countries are in debt distress — a 1,200% increase since 2010.

China may be losing some money too, as it has needed to fund $240 billion in bailouts in recent years — bailouts that extend that debt rather than forgiving it.

Nonetheless, with commodity-backed loans and secret contract terms that prioritized its debts over all other loans, Beijing is making sure it gets paid.


Beijing-fuelled corruption
The unsustainable debt burden on countries is even more galling in light of reports of failing and wasteful infrastructure.

In Ecuador, a massive $2.6bn hydroelectric dam built at the foot of an active volcano has 17,000 cracks in its structure that force it to operate at limited power and risk failure or collapse. Dams in Uganda and Pakistan have structural cracks as well.

In Sri Lanka, elephants wander through a mostly empty international vanity airport built in the former President’s home district.

In Zambia, the massive Mongu-Kalabo highway linking western Zambia to Angola sees mostly foot and bicycle traffic.

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), China didn’t build the bulk of the promised infrastructure at all — constructing less than $1bn of the agreed $3bn in infrastructure China offered in exchange for extracting critical minerals that have been valued at between $10bn and $17bn.

And through it all is Chinese-fuelled corruption. Chinese state-owned businesses paid bribes of $55m to President Joseph Kabila and his entourage in the DRC.

President Lenin Moreno and other officials in Ecuador received $76m in bribes related to the dam with thousands of cracks.

Chinese officials covered up and abetted the embezzlement of as much as $1bn by Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak.

It's many things, but it's not 'win-win'
China has touted the BRI as the shining example of “win-win cooperation” based upon “mutual understanding, mutual respect and mutual trust among different countries”.

Xi explained China’s approach under the BRI: “We have no intention to interfere in other countries’ internal affairs, export our own social system and model of development, or impose our own will on others.”

Xi’s conception of non-interference, however, clearly has some caveats, not to mention utility for Bejing.

BRI has proven useful as an avenue for Beijing’s global pressure campaign to push countries to support the isolation of Taiwan and in the introduction of domestic, anti-democratic surveillance and intelligence-gathering in recipient foreign countries — to say nothing of using military intimidation to enforce controversial maritime borders in the South China Sea and leveraging nominally civilian overseas BRI assets to support Beijing’s military.

The BRI has aided and abetted global attempts to undermine democracy, attacks on human rights and freedoms, widespread use of Chinese propaganda and misinformation, and intimidation of press and media in foreign countries.

Moreover, BRI has contributed to the distortion of multilateral institutions, interference in the electoral process of foreign democracies, and attempts to drive division between global democracies.

The BRI may not deliver high-quality infrastructure as promised, but there’s plenty of value for Beijing in disrupting democratic rules and norms.

There's no such thing as free lunch
As the celebrations for the BRI's 10th anniversary kick off, Xi is sure to announce new slogans and evolving rationale in support of another dangerous decade of BRI engagement, but attending countries would do well to ask whether their citizens have anything to gain from “win-win” cooperation with China.

At the Second Belt and Road Forum, Xi announced a new tagline for the BRI: “Open, Green, and Clean”.

Perhaps at this Third Belt and Road Forum, the most honest tagline would be: “Recipients Beware — Serious Strings Attached”.

https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/17/cash-corruption-crumbling-dams-thats-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-10-years-in

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Yeah it’s not a surprise. Still sad to me. Reminds me of articles about endangered species being gathered all over the world for consumption. The destination is China.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Some dude was caught on video pissing in a tsingtao beer tank

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Xi's visit to the US is really interesting when one compares it to the last visit. The article breaks it down pretty well. One thing they don't really unpack is the belligerent attitude China has projected outward and general negative sentiment much of the world has of China as a result. Personally I think Xi may understand that wolf warrior diplomacy may be backfiring.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-67423040

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

If you don't want to read this the summary is China's liberal use of OTC antibiotics has likely led to an antibiotic resistant bacterium for which there may be no safe treatment in children.

It's a pretty good short read though.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/28/chinese-hospitals-pandemic-outbreak-pneumonia/

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Xi is on a major purge right now

https://www.politico.eu/article/chinas-paranoid-purge-xi-jinping-li-keqiang-qin-gang-li-shangfu/

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

The ghost town phenomenon is more of a symptom of issues rather than the problem itself. Local governments get tax revenue from land sales so they'd push for new housing development, the economy itself derives a large portion of its growth from new development so it is easy to imagine the central government greasing the wheels, and the individual saw real estate as a safe place to invest so those who could invested in housing. The entirety is an ecosystem of sorts that supports everyone within it. And for years with a growing population it all worked out with a few bad bets along the way.

When that ecosystem hit a combination of slowing population growth, overzealous expansion, and the practice of individuals/investors taking on mortgages before construction, the result is massive loss from construction giants and their lenders down to the most modest individual investor taking it on the chin. The central government can either support the ailing sector as they have done in the past or let the bets come due and allow the system to naturally weed out the bad loans and poor development decisions. The government wields essentially unlimited power so they may be able to pull the strings in such a way to serve up a soft landing but a lot of money in the form of massive unfinished or unwanted construction is going to go poof.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

They could use a safer flight path , they could use a safer fuel source in the first stage but gently caress it, let it rip right over land.

The chatter in the international community about the default to uncontrolled decay of decommissioned satellites and other large space debris has been getting louder the last few years too. They’ve gotten lucky but eventually someone or something of note is going to get smashed.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/05/10/nasa-chief-criticizes-china-for-uncontrolled-rocket-re-entry/

quote:

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said Saturday that China is failing to meet “responsible standards” on space debris after a massive Long March rocket stage fell back to Earth over the Indian Ocean in an uncontrolled re-entry that is likely to be repeated with additional launches next year.

The approximately 100-fo0t-long (30-meter), 21.6-metric ton (23.8-ton) rocket booster fell out of orbit and plunged into the atmosphere late Saturday (U.S. time), according to U.S. and Chinese authorities. The rocket succumbed to aerodynamic drag and re-entered the atmosphere on a northwest-to-southeast pass over the Arabian Peninsula and Indian Ocean.

Most of the rocket was expected to burn up during re-entry. Debris that survived the scorching temperatures of re-entry likely fell in the Indian Ocean near the Maldives, according to the China Manned Space Engineering Office.

The rocket dropped into the atmosphere at nearly 17,000 mph (28,000 kilometers per hour). Friction generated from the rocket encountering air molecules caused temperatures to build up to thousands of degrees.

The Aerospace Corp., a California-based research center, expected about five to ten metric tons of material from the rocket to survive re-entry and reach Earth’s surface.

The Long March 5B rocket stage launched April 28 with the Tianhe core module for China’s space station. Rather than executing a controlled deorbit burn, the core stage remained in a low-altitude orbit after deploying the Tianhe space station module.

Atmospheric drag gradually pulled the huge rocket back to Earth, resulting in the unguided re-entry late Saturday. The rocket could have fallen anywhere moon Earth between 41.5 degrees north and south latitude, an area roughly bounded by New York City and Chicago in the north, and Wellington, New Zealand, in the south.

Although the falling rocket debris was unlikely to harm anyone, the small risk of danger captured worldwide attention. U.S., Russian, and European space surveillance authorities tracked the rocket and issued regularly-updated predictions of when and where the core stage might re-enter the atmosphere.

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson, who was sworn in as the space agency’s head last week, criticized China for leaving the rocket to make an uncontrolled re-entry.

“Spacefaring nations must minimize the risks to people and property on Earth of re-entries of space objects and maximize transparency regarding those operations,” Nelson said in a statement. “It is clear that China is failing to meet responsible standards regarding their space debris.


“It is critical that China and all spacefaring nations and commercial entities act responsibly and transparently in space to ensure the safety, stability, security, and long-term sustainability of outer space activities,” Nelson said.

The unusual design Long March 5B rocket uses a large core stage with two main engines fed by liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen propellants. Four smaller strap-on boosters, each powered by a pair of kerosene-fueled engines, give the rocket an extra burst of energy off the launch pad.

Most rockets have first stage boosters that do not reach orbital velocity. Those rocket stages fall downrange or perform controlled landings to be reused again, leaving an upper stage to finish the task of placing satellites into orbit.

In many cases, U.S., Russian, and European rockets deorbit their upper stages to re-enter the atmosphere over a remote part of the ocean. Chinese rockets typically leave their upper stages in orbit.

What’s different about the Long March 5B is the rocket’s massive core stage, which is tied as the fourth-most massive object to ever re-enter the atmosphere in an uncontrolled manner, according to a list maintained by Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer and expert on spaceflight activity.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

It's a good place to visit , or was a couple decades ago. Living there would be a different story.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Top tier article on Taiwan's political history and upcoming election.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67920287

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

CCP is in a tough spot. As attitudes shift away from we are part of China to we are Taiwan they increasingly only have a violence option. Their best possible bet today is to woo the people and the government to somehow want to become China. Maybe that's laughable today. Any violent outcomes are pretty grim to imagine.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Not sure if I'm interpreting snark correctly or what but just so it's clear, I am not suggesting China has a legitimate claim. I'm saying they do not appear to be backing down from this claim and in fact recently said it was off the table to Biden, and recent events in Ukraine have shown us what can happen in an invasion today between 2 forces with vaguely similar doctrines/hardware/backing. They're in a tough spot because they desperately want to fold Taiwan into China, are not backing down from this goal, and without the people of Taiwan wanting that to happen it's going to be ugly.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Maybe the reliance on a big government, this acceptance of centralized power into their lives as a good or accepted thing is so ingrained in folks when the worm turns on them they don't see how pervasive of a threat it is. Or people are just idiots.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Accurate numbers? Hell no. Their numbers were fiction from the start.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

China is getting under the hood of their stock market in a big way after their CSI 300 benchmark hit a 5 year low. The government put a temporary halt to short selling and their sovereign wealth fund is actively purchasing EFTs and bank shares. HK market is also being hit hard. There's also some "informal restrictions" on selling stocks. In short the government is getting heavily involved in controlling market prices.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Tai posted:

Propping up stocks costs a lot and doesn't usually work unless you actually fix the problem. China likely to have to bail out a lot of people or let a lot of people go bust. Either way, nice gently caress up you could of avoided.
This is pretty much my take on it.

Shorting is the ecosystem's method of controlling over-valuation. Take that away and pump more money into the system and you're only kicking the can down the road unless value and growth that supports the stock price returns to the companies' fundamentals. It could be years before this happens.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Goddamn lol

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chinese-migrants-fastest-growing-group-us-mexico-border-60-minutes-transcript/

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

China cancelled the premier's annual press conference, ending a 30 year tradition. No news is good news.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-cancels-premiers-press-conference-first-time-since-1993-2024-03-04/

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Articles are saying the bill to force Bytedance to divest Tiktok or cease operations in the US is going to pass the House but the Senate is uncertain. There is much gnashing of teeth from Chinese authorities and Tiktok idiots.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Klyith posted:

If it passes it'll almost certainly get struck down by the supreme court. (As shitheaded as the majority are, this totally falls into their limited government ideological bias.)


But it's very funny watching the freeze peach GOP idiots try to make laws preventing conservative trolls from getting banned from facebook at the same time as banning a different social media platform.
Huh, I don't see it happening. National security concerns would outweigh limited government ideals particularly in this case where it's a matter of a foreign government's reach vs a law enacted by US gov.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

CCP takes irony to a whole new level

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Eh, they just proved the platform's power as a tool of propaganda by telling their users the app was facing a ban and prompting users to enter their zip and provide them with their representatives' contact number.

It'll be interesting to see how the bill does in the senate. Trump has positioned himself against the bill as it appears one of his billionaire donors has a large financial stake.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Hong Kong passed new legislation which gives pretty much ends any question of dissent by the citizens in the future.

https://www.npr.org/2024/03/19/1239403058/hong-kong-new-article-23-national-security-legislation

quote:

Pro-Beijing lawmakers have argued the legislation is needed to fill loopholes left by the sweeping 2020 national security law.

"Now we would have had the offense of secession and subversion, overthrow of government, which means that if the rioters started waving pro-independence banners, we could have prosecuted them, which means that it would not have been necessary for Beijing to step in and introduce its own national security law," Regina Ip, a Hong Kong politician said on a Hong Kong talk show this year.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Grand Fromage posted:

This is both lovely and very funny.

I'm struggling for a word beyond what they use in the article shameless.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Article is firewalled but you can watch the video where they run a wargame on the invasion of Taiwan.

https://www.wsj.com/video/what-war-games-tell-us-about-a-potential-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/27A8FCE8-EC84-4D3D-973A-B7EFD6B1930A.html

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

quote:

WASHINGTON, April 16 (Reuters) - China is directly subsidizing production of illicit fentanyl precursors for sale abroad and fueling the U.S. opioid crisis, a U.S. congressional committee said on Tuesday, releasing findings from an investigation it said unveiled Beijing's incentives for the deadly chemicals.

China continues to provide subsidies in the form of value-added tax rebates to its companies that manufacture fentanyl analogues, precursors and other synthetic narcotics, so long as they sell them outside of China, the House of Representatives' select committee on China said in a report.

"The PRC (People's Republic of China) scheduled all fentanyl analogues as controlled substances in 2019, meaning that it currently subsidizes the export of drugs that are illegal under both U.S. and PRC law," the report said, adding that some of the substances "have no known legal use worldwide."

The report cited data from the Chinese government's State Taxation Administration website, which listed certain chemicals for rebates up to 13%. It additionally currently subsidizes two fentanyl precursors used by drug cartels - NPP and ANPP, it said.

According to the Chinese government website, the subsidies remain in place as of April, the report said.

I figured they just turned a blind eye to the companies manufacturing the stuff.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

I personally have a hard time giving the PRC the benefit of the doubt over the precursor story being an innocent side effect of being a chemical exporter, particularly as it's been a high level diplomatic topic between the US and China. Chinese industry has a solid track record of profits above all while the government tends to draw a line under this that goes something like as long as those negatively affected are foreigners. Still the demand is a US problem and I'm biased in general when it comes to topics like this.

Unrelated the headlines today say Biden admin wants tariffs raised on Chinese steel and AL.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

Speaking of that it's funny how hard the Chinese government is pushing back against a possible TikTok ban.

quote:

The Chinese Embassy has held meetings with congressional staff to lobby against the legislation that would force a sale of TikTok, according to two of the Capitol Hill staffers.
...
The embassy downplayed the national security concerns with TikTok in both meetings, the two staffers said, and sought to align the app with American interests: In one meeting, the embassy said a ban on TikTok would harm U.S. investors who hold some ownership in ByteDance. In the other, the embassy emphasized that not all ByteDance board members were Chinese nationals.

The embassy also sought to claim the company as Chinese, the staffers said, despite TikTok’s public efforts to distance itself from the origin of its founders. TikTok, unlike ByteDance, is based in Singapore and the United States. In one of the meetings, the embassy argued that the legislation amounted to a forced data transfer of a Chinese company, according to the House staffer. In the other, the embassy argued that the effort was not fair to a Chinese company because the U.S. would not treat a company with a different national origin the same way, according to the Senate staffer.

Rich.

Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023

23 Chinese swimmers tested positive for TMZ before the Tokyo Olympics, the same substance that the Russian skater popped before Bejing. The Tokyo positive results weren't shared with anyone by the anti doping agency with claims that it was impossible to prove with covid restrictions in place, and now there's a shitstorm.

https://www.npr.org/2024/04/22/1246205969/china-swimming-doping-scandal-olympics

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Big Ass On Fire
Jun 16, 2023


I'm wondering if this is a guy on the ccp payroll or just someone who went all in on the party line.

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