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Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Uncle Wemus posted:

Someone slap Joe's hand away and start jabbing him back. Why does he touch people?

Because he's a bully, just like Trump. It is a physical challenge, an intimidation tactic. You are aggressively touching someone else because you are, in essence, daring them to react. They may back down, in which case the aggressor seen as powerful. They can't poke back, because he's a loving vice president and you'll get shot. So the only play is to either call it out or ignore it.

It might work well when you're young, but at his age, nobody is intimidated by an old dude who can't remember his boss's name.

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Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Concerned Citizen posted:

I get that it's easier to just attack imaginary arguments but you can at least try to pretend you aren't just trolling.

I'm not telling people to not disparage him, Bloomberg loving sucks. But he has a real campaign and should be on the debate stage.

He absolutely should be on the debate stage so that he can get publicly humiliated by Sanders just like Delaney. He should not be on the debate stage because he bought enough commercials.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Concerned Citizen posted:

If Michelle Obama was running for president, yes? That seems to be the key difference here?

Bloomberg isn't running in Nevada, and that's where the stage is. In fact, he's not trying to win at all. He's trying to strip enough delegates from Bernie to force a contested convention.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

VitalSigns posted:


Oh ok so it shouldn't just be based on what you can get people to say in a poll, gotcha

No, see, it should be this esoteric, completely made up set of parameters that specifically exist so that I can justify having Bloomberg on stage. That way, he can continue to pollute our democracy with endless bags of money because corruption is legal and good.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

VitalSigns posted:

I love how the unique donor requirement is somehow so absurdly easy to meet that it's just a useless measure of how much cash you give to Facebook, yet so onerous that it's unfair to a poor struggling work-a-day billionaire like Bloomberg.

It's anything you want it to be, as long as you support billionaires buying their way into the Democratic Party.

Sir, are you suggesting that a rule is being written specifically to empower the ultrawealthy? How obscene! Such a thing never has, and never will happen. Rules, laws, regulations; these are divine principles, bestowed upon us by the great enlightenment brain-gods of rationalism and their prophets the Founding Fathers. The constitution cannot fail, the tyranny of the majority is real, and checks and balances WORK.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

snorch posted:

IMHO campaign funds should be ok to buy pizza for the proletariat.

Pizza is the most communist food. It comes evenly divided to be distributed as equally as possible among the people.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Gyges posted:

It would be kind of funny if Bloomberg takes the debate stage and immediately pulls a Steyer, agreeing with Bernie and desperately trying to be his friend. On the other hand, you probably do have to actually cut at least one billionare as an example to the others. Let that happen on camera, while Bernie warns the 1% "It could happen to YOU!"

I cannot get out of my head that Steyer spent the first few debates talking about getting money out of politics as a billionaire who's only claim to being on the drat stage was using money on a political campaign.

He has to be grifting, right? Nobody can be that clueless.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Grouchio posted:

I have more info from r/politics on that politico article:

This is Politico once more pushing the dEmS iN diSsARraY perspective.

So it’s a non-story.

This could be a toe in the water. They wanted to see the public's reaction as to what would happen if they did this, so they leaked something to politico to stir the pot.

First, they suggest the idea to gauge a reaction. Then, the media networks talk about it for days, normalizing the end of our democracy. After making it palatable through exposure, someone popular but seemingly impartial, like Obama, comes out and says he's wondering if changing the rules in the middle of an election would protect America, Jesus, and 9/11. Then Perez pitches it. At this point, if CNN and MSNBC have done their job, it seems reasonable, and soon our delusion of a democracy is over.

However, the test must have failed. The retraction was immediate. I spoke to my boomer dad, and the thought just made him sad. He didn't even want to consider the possibility that the democrats could ever do something so terrible. People like me might leave the party entirely, and people like my dad would be so horrified they'd stop voting.

People both ITT and otherwise have said it here, but the establishment just discovered that if they stole the nomination again it would end the party. Does that mean it is us, the voters who have power? And do we have this power by refusing to exercise it?

Edit: I am severely intoxicated, so this may be nonsense.

Cpt_Obvious fucked around with this message at 04:27 on Feb 1, 2020

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007


Holy poo poo, don't dox my 20s.

I cannot describe the amount of outright brainwashing that many Jews, myself included, undergo at a very young age to support Israel. In kindergarten, we were taught to sing the Israeli national anthem in Hebrew. Note that since nobody knew any actual Hebrew yet, we really learned several minutes of chanting a bunch of precise and weird syllables which we assumed meant something. To this day, I still have no loving clue what I was saying, but I still remember many of those seemingly random noises.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Is anyone watching the Des Moines Register poll that's being streamed at 8 CST?

https://features.desmoinesregister.com/news/politics/iowa-caucuses/final-iowa-poll-results/

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Thoguh posted:

No because someone will post the poll results on Twitter half a second after they are released so I'm not gonna watch an indeterminate amount of fart huffing first.

Personally, I want to see Chris Cuomo eat a pile of poo poo live on television, but that's my prerogative.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Two possibilities:

1. Their servers got swamped and it crashed.

2. They don't believe the numbers so they are double checking them, which may result in:

2A. Double checking the numbers and releasing them late. Possibly with biased language.

2B. "Adjusting the Poll" Altering the parameters of the poll so that it changes the numbers.

Those are my guesses.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

DesMoines Register Public Statement.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...rns/4637168002/

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Can I cut and paste the full statement here? If i Cite it? Or is that :filez: ??

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007


Here: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...rns/4637168002/

"Published 8:01 p.m. CT Feb. 1, 2020 | Updated 8:10 p.m. CT Feb. 1, 2020"

Des Moines Register posted:

Des Moines Register, partners cancel release of Iowa Poll over respondent concerns


The Des Moines Register, CNN and Selzer & Co. have made the decision to not release the final installment of the CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll as planned this evening.

Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the Iowa Poll. Today, a respondent raised an issue with the way the survey was administered, which could have compromised the results of the poll. It appears a candidate’s name was omitted in at least one interview in which the respondent was asked to name their preferred candidate.

While this appears to be isolated to one surveyor, we cannot confirm that with certainty. Therefore, the partners made the difficult decision to not to move forward with releasing the Iowa Poll.

The Register has published the Iowa Poll for 76 years, and it is considered the gold standard in political polling. Selzer & Co., which conducts the poll, is recognized for its excellence in polling. It is imperative whenever an Iowa Poll is released that there is confidence that the data accurately reflects Iowans’ opinions.

— Carol Hunter"


TLDR: We are not releasing the poll because a single "surveyor" complained.

Edit: Added date and time. Removed quotation marks at the end.

Cpt_Obvious fucked around with this message at 03:39 on Feb 2, 2020

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Importantly: The decision to not post the poll was posted 10 minutes after the poll was to be released. I'd imagine that must have been a last minute decision.

It is not a technical mishap.

Question: Is it possible someone high up pulled the plug at the last minute?

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Lemming posted:

It's possible the sun will rise tomorrow

TBF I thought it was perfectly possible that their servers got swamped. Were they using YouTube to stream? Or some lovely smaller platform? If they were using some lovely CNN viewer thing, the feed could have just collapsed.

It will be important to know whether any Pete billionaire backers had early release knowledge of the polls. Does anyone have a list of those, like, 38 billionaires that donated to him?

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Concerned Citizen posted:

the story is that the guy complained to buttigieg campaign, and the buttigieg campaign was throwing a fit (because the poll had them doing badly, probably)

The existence of any dude has not been established. It was a "surveyor". Does that mean a supervisor?

Edit: What did he do for a living? At least release how he was related to the campaign? WTF does "surveyor" mean? Witness? Supervisor?

Cpt_Obvious fucked around with this message at 03:52 on Feb 2, 2020

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Concerned Citizen posted:

no, a respondent complained about pete's name not being listed to the buttigieg campaign. the buttigieg campaign went from there

Ok, so a Pete staffer says that literally anyone has complained. In fact, it is possible that a Pete staffer had actually made the complaint, but since he owns a house in Iowa or w/e the requirements for "surveyor" are, he could have made that complaint and simply omitted that information from the report.

Something like: "Here we found that complainer. He is my friend Bob."

And Bob could be all like: "Yeah I made the complaint. Claiming otherwise would be slander if you put it in print (or the other one. The one where you can't officially print it)."

Again, did a big Pete donor have early access to the information?

Apparently, AT&T has donated $85,533 to Pete's campaign.

And

AT&T owns CNN which is producing a broadcast of this poll. Turner, the previous owners of were bought by AT&T in June 2018, and there was a major shift of executives less than a year later, March 2019.

I'm probably the last person who put this together, but there.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Eminai posted:

Again, the "surveyor" they're talking about is an employee of the polling company and is called that because they are one of many people conducting surveys. The DMR or the polling company or whoever is saying there was a consistent error in surveys that were conducted by one particular employee.

So an employee of the polling company told the Pete campaign staffer that there may be an error with the poll. Why didn't the polling company employee tell CNN? Or the Des Moines Register? Why would they go and tell a Pete campaign staff and not a news outlet? The NYT? Wall Street Journal? gently caress, Buzzfeed?

Edit: Why tell Pete?

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Office Pig posted:

Pete knows people.

AT&T, which owns CNN, paid Pete over 80k. They are giving him monetary support, could they also offer "Broadcasting Support"? Is that illegal to alter or withhold the polls?

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Concerned Citizen posted:

no.

polling companies contract out to call centers to make the actual survey calls. one person was called by the call center. they were asked who they support. the person did not list buttigieg. they said their computer was glitching and his name didn't show up.

that person, who was a buttigieg supporter, called the buttigieg campaign and told them what happened. that is all 100% what we know based on what dmr has said. the speculation is then that the buttigieg campaign, knowing the poll is not good for them, proceeded to throw a shitfit at dmr until the poll was pulled.

OK. Again. A staffer at a call center reported to Pete's campaign about a technical glitch. Why?

Does the Pete campaign have any proof of this claim? An email they could censor?

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Gyges posted:

No, a person who answer the phone for a strange number complained to Pete that the surveyor didn't offer Pete as a choice in the poll. The investigation into the allegation appears to have uncovered that a person who was conducting the surveys is a big, dumb idiot.

I mean, charitably, the person probably complained to both Pete and the supervisor of the dummy who was enlarging their screen to the point where it was cutting off text. If you believe this excuse that would have resulted in a decision to 86 the poll days ago instead of just before the climax of an hour long CNN live exclusive scoop special.

Ok, but Pete's campaign is the only primary source we have, right? They have not produced a complaint in any form? There are no censored emails or recorded phone calls. Therefore, our primary source is Pete.

And Pete's campaign was paid over 80K by CNN's parent company.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

reignonyourparade posted:

Sounds like a pete supported got polled and claims that they left pete off one question and mispronounced his name on others. From what's going on it seems like they went to the Buttchug campaign to "warn" them and the campaign is perhaps using this to scuttled a poll that would hurt Pete.

Right now, there is no supporter. They have supplied no proof. Why would CNN do anything that might merit "warning" Pete? They would not have rigged the polls against him, they have paid his campaign 80K.

If they are giving monetary support, are they legally allowed to withhold the polls? Has the impartiality of CNN broken through in a much bigger way than just the last debate questions?

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Concerned Citizen posted:

if you think dmr/selzer/cnn are lying about this, there is no point in believing any of their polling at all so it's all pretty moot.

Nobody is lying about anything. They pulled a poll because the person who is giving them money complained that there was a technical difficulty or mishap. That technical difficulty or mishap was not reported to CNN. If it was, CNN has made no such comment. So either CNN is omitting that they knew about the complaint, or it was never taken to CNN.

Again, CNN has no reason to damage the poll against Pete, because they paid his campaign 80K. Besides, if they do omit this poll to help pete, does it count as monetary support? How much is their airtime worth? They were broadcasting it live, remember.

With Fredo.

Eminai posted:

DMR and CNN both reported on something that happened to a poll that was being jointly run by DMR and CNN. They are primary sources.

Can you post a source?

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

I bet they'll release it on Tuesday. Or late, late Monday.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Concerned Citizen posted:

if bernie doesn't win the caucus, looking forward to people claiming it was rigged even though it's literally the most open process imaginable. in which the vote counting is observed by campaign volunteers and reported to headquarters in every precinct, where every single person at the caucus can see exactly how many people are supporting each person, and the official result can be matched against the campaign's own counts.

because people still claim that there were rigged coin tosses in 2016

Ok. We'll see.

Maybe we'll all finally see the light and vote moderate, right?

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Eminai posted:

I can't verify the CNN part, but here's somebody from the thread linking to the DMR's reporting

God, I got way too drunk way too fast and confused myself.

Edit: loving cheers everyone, this could be it. And if it ain't, you're drunk.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Fredo, come out and tell us what happened! Do reporting! Why must they cancel your show?

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

https://twitter.com/ChrisCuomo/status/1223786394172252161

:ironicat:

Edit: It's 7 minutes before the cast was supposed to happen. I'm on EST.

Cpt_Obvious fucked around with this message at 06:28 on Feb 2, 2020

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007


Let it be true. For the love of god.

Hillary did it.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007


GTFO of here with that nonsense. I'm still on a goddamn cloud after CNN shitcanned their own poll at Pete's direction.

Seriously, I cannot summon a single gently caress for the wealthy conservative state of Texas. Yeah, they get 228 pledged delegates, but gently caress them. California gets 415 and is getting Berned to the ground.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007


This is it guys. Are you ready for our next president, Tom Steyer?

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Vox Nihili posted:

A number of sources are saying this DMR leak is correct now:

Bernie 22
Warren 18
Pete 16
Biden 13
Klobuchar 13

Stop breaking my heart and post the sources.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007


Dear Jesus,

I know, I know, the Jew thing. Listen, if Pete and Biden poo poo the bed in Iowa I promise to stop touching myself. For, like, a while.

Fellow Tribesman,

Cpt_Obvious

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Socialism is like being in the closet.

Between societal pressures from outside sources and the internalization of those societal pressures, it was super taboo to talk about being gay. It was an insult: "gay", "queer", "f*****". But then something strange happened; people start identifying as LGBTQ. Merely accepting the label began to remove the stigma. Look, we've got a long way to go, but by refusing to deny one's place on a spectrum of preferences, "gay" stopped being an accusation and is slowly turning into a simple fact.

It is my opinion that being progressive is, essentially, closeted socialism. "Communist", "socialist" and "pinko" currently exist as accusations the same way that "gay" once was. However, socialists are coming out of the closet, and one might be our next president. It is becoming common for people to self-identify as socialist, and to stand firm against its use as an accusation.

PS: I am in no way attempting to diminish the struggles of the LGBTQ community, nor am I declaring an end to homophobia, transphobia, etc. I am comparing the method by which society becomes normalized to people and ideas they once believed aberrant.

Cpt_Obvious fucked around with this message at 20:01 on Feb 2, 2020

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007


Ford? Who the gently caress is Ford? What do you mean he dodged two assassination attempts and lost reelection to loving Carter?

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

El Grillo posted:

What was the polling like at this stage in 2016, out of interest?

Close. Bernie over performed and resulted in a near tie in the actual vote.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Acute Grill posted:

Ironically, the right declaring everything socialist until the word lost any meaning probably did quite a bit to rehabilitate the term. "Socialism means I won't go bankrupt from getting the flu, my boss has to at least pretend I'm a human being, and someone will finally fix the drat roads? I'm in."

At this point, socialist has come to mean free stuff, and everyone loves free stuff.

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Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Concerned Citizen posted:

hard to say if he "overperformed" due to caucus math, at my caucus site (and the neighboring one in the next room) every single o'malley caucuser went to bernie after they weren't viable

Edit: w/e dude.

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