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Sydin posted:So please correct me if I'm wrong, but here's what I'm understanding about the first three primaries right now: yes
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Jan 31, 2020 05:27
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Unless a candidate (again, probably Bernie or Biden) manages to sweep all three of the above and build enough momentum to look like the clear front runner.
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Here’s a very bad new poll to balance out that NBC one https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1223240762466455552?s=20
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Jan 31, 2020 14:51
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Biden performs best in most head to heads. Sanders is typically 1-2 behind him. Warren and Pete get completely crushed.
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Jan 31, 2020 14:56
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4 national polls out today Sanders +1 Biden +7 Biden +16 Tie These sound... hosed up. Average is Biden +5.5
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Jan 31, 2020 15:59
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The new debate requirements are good. They're based entirely on polling and delegate counts.
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Jan 31, 2020 20:41
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Lemming posted:Changing the rules because things aren't going the way they want is bad they changed the donor requirement to a delegate requirement because the primary is actually starting, and they raise the polling requirement every debate so we're not stuck with Delaneys and Hickenloopers
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Jan 31, 2020 20:50
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VitalSigns posted:Nope When i said requirement i meant... i dunno, something. Based on delegates now instead of donors, I think that's fine. What better way to demonstrate grassroots support than getting votes?
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Jan 31, 2020 21:03
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goethe.cx posted:17-year-olds can caucus? Huh TIL Only if they turn 18 by election day in November.
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Jan 31, 2020 22:50
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Vox Nihili posted:Every non-billionaire campaign's COH looks a bit low. Bernie is better off but not exactly swimming in dough. I'm hoping his January numbers are impressive; we goons are certainly doing our part. I have a weekly donation set up, but I'm giving him an immediate $100 of victory money if he wins Iowa on Monday.
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Feb 1, 2020 03:13
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That Tlaib thing sucks. Won't make a dent but it certainly won't help, and getting cocky while talking about shutting up haters is extremely annoying.
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Feb 1, 2020 04:17
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Bernie’s in the top spot going into the caucuses which is why I think deliberately antagonizing libs is a bad move with no upside right now. Might turn away second round Bernie pickups.
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Feb 1, 2020 18:09
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Eminai posted:Somebody probably should point out for people who aren't super online that Mike Cernovich is basically the farthest thing in this world from a reliable source. Sorry if I explained the joke. He at least chose more realistic results than Tom Watson went with.
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Feb 2, 2020 04:40
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538's Iowa page gives their average standings as Sanders 22.2% Biden 21.4% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/iowa/ but if you do a simple average of the last 10 polls its Sanders 23.8 Biden 18.7 I know they do some wacky poo poo to adjust for bias or whatever but this seems way off (will be very funny when Bernie wins)
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Feb 3, 2020 00:15
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Paradoxish posted:Totally unrelated to anything, but I hope everyone who's all-in for Bernie is prepared to put in serious work when he wins. Typical centrist Democrats are allowed to lose as much as they want without accepting it as a rebuke of their ideology, but a Bernie loss in the general would be a devastating blow to the left-wing. I swore off working directly for candidates after 2016, but I'm going to make an exception for a Bernie win because there's a lot more at stake here than just beating Trump. My dad asked me to pledge to canvass for the Dem candidate in November and I said "only if its Bernie, not gonna waste my time on the others"
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Feb 3, 2020 00:19
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Nairbo posted:When are the first wave of results expected tomorrow? Is it likely they’ll know the winner and delegate count estimates before the next morning? Real results aroudn ~830/9 CST, but there will be preliminary stuff from the first round before that. Less than 23 hours!
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Feb 3, 2020 05:09
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It really seems like Sanders is peaking at exactly the right time while everyone else had their moment fade away. It's a little bizarre that it seems to be working out so well. Of course it could all turn out terribly, but I'm surprised that it seems to be going so well right now. I didn't expect to feel so positively going into Iowa.
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Feb 3, 2020 05:50
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I think Pete might outperform. I don't know anything about Iowa but they probably love his corny-rear end personality.
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Feb 3, 2020 16:44
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Betting markets have Bernie at 62% to win Iowa. 38% to win the nomination. These are both the highest he's been yet.
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Feb 3, 2020 17:26
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theflyingorc posted:Or it's just some random weirdo who behaves weird its the only thing to focus on!! there's nothing else!
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Feb 3, 2020 20:00
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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1224406284390281217?s=20 https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1224406715711528960?s=20 https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1224406945727221761?s=20 its alllll good baby
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Feb 3, 2020 20:01
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Hellblazer187 posted:Eh, let's attack him on his policies or the obviously failing brain. One of like 2-3 presidents who actually made life better for some Americans had loving polio so who cares how good Biden is at walking. He doesn't need a hand to stay up, he needs a hand so he doesn't wander around and fall off a cliff.
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Feb 3, 2020 21:53
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Concerned Citizen posted:first alignment out of port charlotte (from cnn who is there): Numbers like will completely wipe out any wins Sanders has in Scotland or France or Georgia.
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Feb 3, 2020 22:21
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Grouchio posted:50 Minutes till ALL of the Caucuses start OH BOY! 1) They start at 7PM CST which is ~3 hours from now 2) Warren nomination would be better than Klob, but Klob would be better for Bernie to run against since she has a 2% ceiling on minority support.
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Feb 3, 2020 23:14
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what does this even mean? 65 votes where?
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Feb 3, 2020 23:34
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Maybe a little too soon, but I'm no longer worried about Biden. This is a pretty great scenario. Good chance he ends up in fifth tonight.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:00
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Nice table of how 538's predictions change based on various win scenarios for tonight. Depending on the size of Bernie's win, 538 would have him between 46-67% after this. (But if anyone else wins, Sanders drops to 6-28%) https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/89-different-scenarios-for-what-things-could-look-like-after-iowa/
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Feb 4, 2020 00:04
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FizFashizzle posted:Claire McCaskill and Eugene Robinson straight up saying caucuses are unfair lmao It’s gonna rule when Bernie wins the first primary by even bigger margins.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:28
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So Pete and Warren are a bigger than expected threat but Bernie's still holding the lead...
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Feb 4, 2020 03:52
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So what happens if Buttigieg wins and Sanders gets second?
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Feb 4, 2020 04:36
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Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:I think Pete might outperform. I don't know anything about Iowa but they probably love his corny-rear end personality. from 10am: nailed it
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Feb 4, 2020 06:51
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On the bright side: Sanders is still leading the betting markets, up to an all time high of 38%. Probably would have a bigger bounce if they didn’t gently caress this up. Biden is down from 30 to 18 and still in second place. Pete’s up a bunch Now Bernie is the lone front runner and Biden is gonna collapse.
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Feb 4, 2020 08:36
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This kind of poo poo will make it significantly easier for Republicans to gently caress with the election in November. Great job DNC. Main winners here are Trump and Biden (by keeping his collapse out of the headlines).
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Feb 4, 2020 15:37
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It would be funny if Pete's lie about winning turns a story about overperforming in 2nd place into a story about underperforming in 2nd place.
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Feb 4, 2020 16:44
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oxsnard posted:Where is this depressed turnout narrative coming from? Butt and Bernie numbers seem to point to 200k votes. 2008 was crazy partly because of Bush and partly because of Obama. The US economy was collapsing too which was kind of a big deal back then I also think there are probably a lot of anti-Trump democrats who don't have strong feelings about who the Dem nominee should be.
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Feb 4, 2020 16:47
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So it's a bad thing that Bernie's missing out on good press and Trump gets to paint Democrats as incompetent, but: now Buttigieg, Biden, and Bloomberg are running in the same lane without a clear choice for the centrists to rally around. Another possible silver lining.
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Feb 4, 2020 17:05
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Zas posted:its all about the biden/buttigieg/klobb pileup Get Bloomberg in there too. Bloomberg should be pretty easy to drag down once Bernie faces him. Ads could just say: "Mike Bloomberg is a Republican" with a few of the many examples and crush him.
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Feb 4, 2020 19:48
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TulliusCicero posted:So did Bernie or the Mayo man win? Will we ever know?! Bernie will win the vote total but it might be close to tied when they divvy up the delegates (in which case the media will call it a straight up tie).
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Feb 4, 2020 20:05
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PepsiOverCoke posted:Like posts like these, I already told you those screenshots are NOT the app that we have here. keep up dude, Pete's team got the good app
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Feb 4, 2020 22:04
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Antifa Turkeesian posted:What is the basis for the argument that Mayo Pete has no path beyond Iowa? New Hampshire and Nevada are extremely white. not enough dorks
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Feb 5, 2020 05:22
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John Wick of Dogs posted:Wait why does anyone care about "state delegate equivalent"? It looks like Buttigieg and Sanders end up with the same number of pledged delegates either way since they are so close. In which case the guy who actually had more votes definitely won. delegates don't matter, all about the media coverage of a winner and the perception of it and they're choosing to go with this stupid SDE thing
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Feb 5, 2020 05:50
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