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Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Playing to win the Iowa caucus with old folks

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Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Rad Russian posted:

Based on reddit comments from people on the ground in Iowa, they seem really concerned heading into the weekend and are targeting Warren voters more now. Seems like progressive leaning voters they talk to are now going back to her because she's more "electable". The Senate voting not to call witnesses for Trump trial seems to have helped the narrative that we need someone electable ASAP to beat Trump. The fear now is that Butt and Sanders under-perform past polling while Biden and Warren over-perform. Warren is seizing on this development in the Senate with "Unite the Party" ads and Biden with his "we can't take a risk now" campaign. Hopefully next 3 days make a difference to combat this BS.

I would believe it, people are really underestimating Biden and Warren and democrats, at their core, are craven cowards desperately wanting to desperately cling to Mommy in the face of oblivion

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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icantfindaname posted:

I hate to say it but I think Warren and her delegates play Judas and throw the nomination to Biden (or even worse Bloomberg but I'm not blackpilled enough to predict that)

Quoted for truth

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Grouchio posted:

I wonder how high turnout will be in Iowa compared to 2016.

It will be high but that won't really mean anything as everyone on all sides will be hyped up to caucus. It might actually hurt Bernie as his supporters enthusiasm will be offset by all the succ showing up as well.

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Tibalt posted:

I hate to tell you this, but American politics started before the 90s.

The DNC in its modern form started in the 60s after McGovern.

Edit: well, more the 70s, I guess. '69 barely counts.

1968 loving shattered the party after RFK got shot and the massive riots at the convention, on top of the southern democrats defecting to the GOP over segregation, George Wallace cleaning up the deep South, and the party split over Vietnam. After McGovern lost in 1972 (which was the real broke brain, crack ping moment for all of the Boomer left) they rejiggered the party so nobody who wasn't a boring moderate could win again at the convention.

Only Carter won between 1968 and Clinton, and likely the only reason he won was because everyone still hated Ford for pardoning Nixon.

Feldegast42 fucked around with this message at 21:44 on Feb 4, 2020

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Sinema is next to Manchin in being democrat in name only

And backed by the DNC and DSCC to the hilt, of course

Shes also bi, if I remember right, which I'm sure that the Evangelicals will respect when the time comes

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Apocalypse posted:

Obama only separated children from parents when they were caught illegally coming into the country AND had evidence of committing some other major offense, like drug smuggling. Obviously you can't keep a kid with a parent who is also a drug mule.

Lol that you actually buy this

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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If the dems somehow took the senate in 2016 but Trump still won the presidency there is a very high chance that the same nazi judges that were confirmed in our reality would be confirmed in the other one as well. The dems give no shits about doing anything but upholding the status quo and playing nice with the people that would gleefully rape, exploit, and kill their children, and also the GOP

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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InnercityGriot posted:

Buttigieg is an empty suit and a completely evil person, if you think that after people have thoroughly discussed his horrendous record in this thread they're suddenly going to turn around and be willing to accept voting for him as a candidate, you're assuming people's support is as soft as yours. A lot of us bit our tongue and voted for lovely rear end Hilary and are not interested in electing a Macron. If the center left thinks that is acceptable, fine, but that result will be on your hands when he prepares the field in another four years for an even worse conservative. Neoliberalism is a slower incline down to fascism, not the steep cliff of conservatism, but they have the same destination.

There is an argument that Buttigieg is actually the worse case scenario than Trump, as Trump is too incompetent to properly crush the left like in the 60's. The first thing Buttigieg would do in office would be to consolidate the crumbling centrist neo-liberal position, and they would do that by making peace with the fash while restarting COINTELPRO and making sure a whole lot more reformers kill themselves with two bullets to the back of the head

Better a senile old man than a CIA asset

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Oracle posted:

I dunno, NH has a libertarian streak a mile wide and it tends to bend conservative. I wouldn't be surprised to see a technocrat like Pete do well there. Granted Bernie's got the boy next door home team advantage but I wouldn't assume a blowout. I can definitely see a bunch of the old white Biden supporters going Buttigieg.

Lol no way Butt takes it -- libertarians by their nature absolutely despise a PMC pencil pusher ratface like Buttigieg. I do think he will do better than expected due to "winning" Iowa but Bernie is still gonna crush

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Lol now the GOP can openly rig basically every election they want and when the dems complain they can point to this

Why the gently caress are people still defending these motherfuckers

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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PepsiOverCoke posted:

Its not fraud, but the satellite sites DO have a disproportionate number of delegates which is absolutely benefiting Sanders disproportionately.

I find it funny that folks are super happy to condemn Pete as a cheater on the app (despite having nothing to do with it), calling him intentionally fudging the numbers (despite having nothing to do with the IDP), and calling him responsible for ratfucking the actual cacus math (despite every instance shown to be correct or genuine error outside of him)

But yeah lets make fun of the Pete supporters for being mad about Bernie RIGGING THE SATTELITE sites, just everyone chillax.

I can't believe Bernie rigged the vote by getting more people to vote for him than anyone else

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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And they would have voted for him for a third term if they could

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Whoever is gonna be VP has to fulfill these qualifications:

- Either be a minority or female, and young
- Has to be qualified to either take over being president in case Bernie bites it, or be strong enough to be a standard bearer for the movement going forward
- Has to have balls of pure, unadulterated brass because the plan to get around the filibuster is to invoke a clause in the constitution that has been a mere formality since literally Washington (be President of the Senate)
- In addition to having those brass balls, be ideologically close enough to Bernie to be willing to push stuff through the senate while the GOP (and rump establishment dems / blue dogs) are literally up in arms for taking away their power

Also given the enormity of what has already happened among the establishment for trying to stop Bernie, him choosing a moderate establishment-friendly VP would likely get him Epstein'd within a week.

Feldegast42 fucked around with this message at 23:01 on Feb 6, 2020

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Tim Kaine was made VP as a favor so that Hillary could install Debbie Wasserman Schultz as the DNC chair as apart of her taking over the party apparatus

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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If you want to Arzy over Buttigieg winning that's fine.

But if you Arzy over Buttigieg winning you really should either post a picture of your donation to Bernie, or you signing up to canvass or phone bank, or you should eat a sixer.

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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I think its healthy to be worried about NH now but that worry should be put into doing something productive. Bernie's base is for sure not going away but we have to make sure they all show up.

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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I am worried in regards to the black vote that Pete will play up his Christian credentials in order to sway him. He was able to get a lot of (admittedly white) people in Iowa because he is the only one of the group that would talk about his (supposed) faith.

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Kunabomber posted:

Seriously, the emotion coming out of Iowa should be anger and resolve, not despair.

A week ago I was drat about to :toxx: for Biden because I didn't think there was a way that Bernie could overcome him. Its far better to be resolved because we don't know what is going to come next. In 2 weeks we could all be lol'ing at Butt getting 10% in NH and then all Arzying about Tom Steyers epic surge in South Carolina

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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kidkissinger posted:

am i crazy to think we're gonna get a sick as hell warren redemption arc where she goes out swinging at the rat? she DOES seem to have some kind of issues with wall street and this is their full time boot-licker taking her spot. on her own i don't see those attacks being too valuable, but the idea of a Warren/Bernie tag-team is kind of nice.

Nah if she wasn't on the take she would have knifed Biden on stage a long rear end time ago

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Gyges posted:

Neither one would even pick a Kagan, let alone an RBG.

The dem establishment are shook enough that any theoretical scotus pick would be based on entrenching their own power and the power of the ruling class, so they would be moderate at best who would agree with Citizens United and be on board with gutting union and labor laws.

Of course I say theoretical here because there is no way in hell the dems take back the senate with a non-Bernie candidate and McConnell would just :commissar: any feeble pick they put up

Hell to go one step further, I think no matter what if Bernie wins or loses that Medicare will be explicitly targeted for dismantling and sabotage by the dems in order to discredit the MfA movement and destroy that stepping stone to universal health care.

Feldegast42 fucked around with this message at 23:04 on Feb 13, 2020

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Bloomberg would merely codify all of the horror that Trump is doing much like how Obama merely codified all of the horror that Dubya was doing. Voting for him is effectively the same as voting Trump.

Even if you voted for him simply so the dems have control over who goes into the judiciary, its likely that the same right wing judges would be appointed as well. This is because the dem establishment's number one priority at this point is stopping the leftist / Bernie lead movement and they would gladly throw in anti-choice judges as long as they would uphold Citizens United and axe labor and electoral laws. Doubly so for Bloomberg, who would install GOP judges because he is from the GOP

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Remember when West Virginia voted blue no matter who and elected Jim Justice? I wonder what ever happened to that lovable scamp

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Like look over at France and see how Macron is doing if you want to have a picture of the next few years. And that is in a society that hasn't yet been beaten down as much as everyday Americans have been.

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Sir Tonk posted:

Bloomberg getting the crucial Prager U vote

first letter in every word

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Tatsuta Age posted:

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1228343721747451907

I really can't believe I ever thought matt yglesias wasn't a total moron

Pundits really are the dumbest motherfuckers alive, aren't they? Literally base their opinion on whoever has the shiniest ad, assuming Bloomberg isn't just paying off pundits now

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Gripweed posted:

Good news, instead of saying moderate Democrats, or non-Bernies, or the centrist candidates, we have a single name for them all now

https://twitter.com/postXamerica/status/1228420383134515200?s=20

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Frank Sidebottom posted:

None of those links accuse him of rape. He can still be a sexist scumbag without being a rapist pal



Just to head people off at the pass somebody make this the background of DnD, thx

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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CelestialScribe posted:

I have a legitimate question, and I am not trolling, but we'll see how many people take me seriously.

There's a lot of talk of ratfucking going on in this thread, and given what happened in Iowa, rightly so.

But let's say Bernie makes it to the convention with a plurality of pledged delegates, and there's a second ballet vote.

Ignoring super delegates, if Bernie loses to say, Mayor Pete on the second vote with normal delegates, is that really ratfucking Bernie out of the nomination?

I mean, it would suck, Mayor Pete sucks, etc, and the Dems would stupid to vote for Mayor Pete over Bernie, but if that happens, I don't see why that isn't a legitimate process with an outcome that's just less than ideal.

Just because its "a legitimate process" doesn't mean that it is moral or correct.

ICE is torturing, raping, and killing children in concentration camps but what they are doing is considered a "legitimate process".

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Oh I'm sure the Bloomberg death panels are totally only going to deny coverage for people that are 95 years old with incurable cancer and totally won't be used as an excuse to deny healthcare to people younger than that on absolute bullshit reasons

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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overmind2000 posted:

Is Bloomberg's organization doing canvassing and other ground game things or are they entirely built around ads, memes, and social media?

Bloomberg is buying off canvassers but it seems like morale isn't particular high with those chaps since they are only doing it for an easy paycheck

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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buglord posted:

Personally curious about this. From what I remember, Hillary was hugely unpopular, he didn’t win by much in the popular vote, and since 2016 he’s likely pissed off more on the fence voters onto not voting or voting blue. Dems seem more energized now and far less apathetic.

On the other hand, after 2016, anything is possible. But what are some arguments for trump having a really easy path towards victory?

Beyond what everyone else has said, it looks like Ohio, Iowa and probably Florida are out of the democrats reach (maybe even with Bernie), with Wisconsin right on the line. Under the current map Trump really only needs 1 of 3 of the former "blue wall" states to win the presidency again.

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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As good as the early turnout in Nevada is they are already finding excuses to shred votes as fast as they can:


If most of the early voting is in favor of Sanders Nevada could end up a lot more rocky than we all hope. Hopefully the campaign has a counterplay to this

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Solkanar512 posted:

Is everyone who’s worried forgetting about the absolutely massive early vote turnout in NV?

They are already throwing out massive amounts of votes from it due to incorrect instructions and no signatures so the bigger the early vote for Bernie the worse he will do

It's very possible he loses NV due to this ratfuck

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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I don't think Bloomberg is quite done yet but its a good beating he is taking right now and it seems like non-Bloomberg owned media is turning on him, at least for the moment.

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Groovelord Neato posted:

Just heard the Bloomberg radio ad that plays like an Obama endorsement. hosed up. Both the ad and the fact Obama said all these positive things about Bloomberg.

If Obama doesn't step in and "clarify" things someday it will turn into a de-facto endorsement

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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All Fire Emblem games post Radiant Dawn are trash

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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If Russia wants to dive dick first into Middle Eastern politics why the hell should we care? Also, I never really cared about the whole Ukraine thing as Ukraine was formerly apart of Russia for ages and ages and their current government is just about as reactionary as Russia is right now. Obama deciding to meddle on Russia's doorstep is the main reason why they decided to try to meddle on our turf, anyways...

Also any proper election security would be opposed by the succ dems themselves because it would inevitability gently caress with their political machines in the blue states, much less the GOP.

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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The really telling thing is that none of the also-rans have put any real money into super tuesday besides Klobb. They are going to get destroyed

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Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

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Also keep in mind, on top of everything else (trying to pass HR1 / MfA / GND) the chuds will be drat near up in arms around the country so he will probably have to deal with a congressional GOP so hardline that it makes even Mitch McConnell look like a pussy RINO while having to navigate several domestic terror attacks

We can still do it, but its gonna take the unified leftist movement Bernie is building and we are going to have to keep fighting for this stuff.

Feldegast42 fucked around with this message at 23:03 on Feb 23, 2020

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