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So please correct me if I'm wrong, but here's what I'm understanding about the first three primaries right now: Iowa: Nobody really knows, it's probably going to be one of Biden or Sanders, and which it is will depend largely on if the expected increase in young and first time caucus goers pans out or not. NH: Bernie is going to win unless the polls are completely hosed. Nevada: If Bernie wins Iowa and NH, the momentum could swing Nevada his way. Otherwise it's probably going to go to Biden. Super Tuesday:  Unless a candidate (again, probably Bernie or Biden) manages to sweep all three of the above and build enough momentum to look like the clear front runner.
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Jan 31, 2020 05:26
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Cool, thanks. I will now officially spend my free time from now until Monday night drinking and ignoring polls and political pundits. 
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Jan 31, 2020 05:30
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You gotta hand it to Biden
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Jan 31, 2020 07:32
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Wicked Them Beats posted:Warren is an absolute idiot who panics when she's put on the spot, her and her team come up with these "plans" that are completely asinine and please nobody except the dumbest of libs, and there are honestly people who think she could go up against Trump. He would eat her alive. She also - along with the rest of us - watched the Clinton campaign collapse under its own ineptitude and still decided that when the time came for her to run for president, she wanted her senior campaign staff to be the same people that ran Clinton's into the ground. It's working out about as well as you'd expect.
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Jan 31, 2020 08:55
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I wouldn't get too hyped over Iowa being a slam dunk. Biden appeals to old white centrists and Iowa has those in spades. But yeah, at this point you're hoping that the polls aren't indicative of the surge of youth turnout that'll take place there.
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Jan 31, 2020 16:16
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u brexit ukip it posted:I just hope that the youth will actually show up. It does worry me a bit that Sanders' most reliable supporters are the age groups that traditionally don't turn out to vote in large enough numbers. Caucusing is also a pain in the rear end and a time sink vs traditional voting where you can be in and out in under five minutes if there's no line. I'm tentatively hopeful the youth energy surrounding Bernie is legit and will drum up a lot of turnout, but I'm also trying not to fall into the UK thread trap where everybody hyped themselves up that the polls were all wrong and biased because they didn't account for the underlying leftist energy, only for it to turn out that no, the polls were dead on and the olds are bending us over yet again with their last dying gasps.
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Jan 31, 2020 16:58
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Nazzadan posted:If we're talking what really changed us, for me it was Charlottesville. So a more recent event than most of you but I also think I'm a little younger. From Charlottesville on I stopped browsing 4chan, cut ties with most friends I met from there and dropped a lot of words from my vocabulary. I can't really point to one crystallizing moment, for me it's been a slow and steady slide further left as a result of living and working in Silicon Valley for the last 10 years. Nothing opens your eyes to the failures of neo-liberal policy quite like passing by five homeless camps on the way to work in the city with the largest amount of millionaires per-capita.
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Jan 31, 2020 18:18
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Ytlaya posted:I don't want to beat a dead horse here, but I hope that the people who soured on Warren* also realized that it was possible to realize she was bad long before she explicitly walked back M4A. There's a reason many of us knew she couldn't be trusted from the beginning of the primary. My hope is that Bernie can get the presidency and prove that larger scale change can work. Right now there are a lot of people who like Bernie's ideas but only as future states, because they think change has to come slowly and incrementally. If he can get enough done in four years to change minds on that, it opens the door for more leftist candidates with even more radical platforms to gain traction.
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Jan 31, 2020 19:09
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Also not that intimidating to be touched by somebody who knows that if you try to touch them back there will be secret service agents tackling you to the ground within seconds.
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Jan 31, 2020 20:11
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Nothing could be done now sure but if we get to rewind by a year then the answer is "be at least as far to the left as Bernie is, don't cave those positions, and if you're not an old white guy that will help you a lot." There was absolutely a lane for Warren to be "Bernie, but younger and a woman" and she could have had a legitimate path. Instead she decided to veer to the center to try and compete with Biden and Butt, which left Bernie as the only viable candidate for the left to rally around, and guess what that's what they did.
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Feb 1, 2020 04:15
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The public at large is slowly (very slowly) but surely waking up to the fact that the policies they were told are bad because they're "socialist" or "impractical" or "we can't pay for them" are the policies that will materially benefit their lives and livelihoods. We've already seen shades of it where your average middle-to-lower income GOP voter was adamantly against Obamacare, until they actually got Obamacare and even in its broken state realized it was way better than their previous options of "nothing" and "more nothing", and now it would be political suicide for the GOP to undo it. All it takes is four years of Bernie riding his popularity to push through genuine leftist reforms to see the beginning of a true re-awakening of class consciousness and solidarity in the country. The establishment fears that more than anything else. The ruling class has worked very hard over the last several decades to divide the population along lines of ideology and morality to weaken class solidarity. Your rank and file DNC regular would rather see Trump become god king of the country and keep the socio-economic status quo than four years of a successful Bernie presidency causing liberal voters to realize neo-liberalism and capitalism were the primary causes of their hardships and embracing leftist candidates instead of the DNC elite. If Bernie wins Iowa and carries that momentum into other states, expect their attempts to ratfuck him to accelerate. Whether that's in the form of letting super delegates vote first ballot, or encouraging Bloomberg to run as a third party candidate, or adopting the Tory model that was used to smear Corbyn and just try to paint Bernie as something he's not by bombarding the public with the same message through almost all media channels, the rich fucks who want to burn the world to a cinder so they can sip fine wine on their yachts for a couple more years will do everything they can to preserve their power. Go donate to Bernie. Canvass for Bernie. Donate to other downballot leftist candidates who are trying to to break the DNC's stranglehold. There's a good list of them here. Do everything you can to spread the word and make sure people who aren't in total lockstep with Bernie like most of the people in this thread aren't going to waver under the incoming bombardment of misinformation and ratfuckery.
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Feb 1, 2020 06:36
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Lemming posted:That poll is definitely extremely good for Bernie, lmao
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Feb 2, 2020 02:59
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Feb 2, 2020 09:53
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empty whippet box posted:Which part, the one where his crowd is bigger and more enthusiastic than anyone else's, or the part where he's clearly going to win the presidency? Yes
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Feb 3, 2020 02:06
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Mahoning posted:Just a timely reminder not to pay too much attention to Five Thirty Eight. *extreme Nate Silver voice* "The average person just doesn't understand how statistics works! Our model didn't say the 49er's would win the Superbowl, it just said that in 98 of 100 simulations using our model, they do. That's two in one hundred times the Chiefs win! There's nothing wrong with the model!"
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Feb 3, 2020 06:24
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Just a reminder that this guy is honest to god leading in the polls in multiple states.
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Feb 3, 2020 07:07
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kidkissinger posted:everyone, please give bernie your energy
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Feb 3, 2020 18:08
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mcmagic posted:I don't think Biden's voters go to Bernie though. They are idiots so it's pretty hard to predict how they would even break if Biden crashes and burns. The olds who legitimately want a centrist candidate wouldn't go to Bernie, no, but a lot of the "I just want the candidate who can beat Trump!" voters will break for whoever looks like has momentum. Bernie picking up Iowa followed by NH with Biden placing in a distant third or worse would make a lot of those folks move to Bernie.
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Feb 3, 2020 18:20
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Wrath of Zidane posted:I keep hearing from my friends who were supporting Bernie that they are scared to vote for him, because they're scared the supporters won't congregate behind the person in the general. The mocking of Warren supporters doesnt really alleviate that. Remind them that we had the supposed "most electable" option in Hillary in 2016 for the general, and how that turned out. "Electability" won't win the general, genuine energy and enthusiasm for our candidate will. They need to vote with their hearts.
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Feb 3, 2020 19:51
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Anyone genuinely swayed to vote Bloomberg has oatmeal in place of a brain. Their support will evaporate once a few primaries fill out. Genuinely curious what his voter base actually consists of. I can only assume it's the politically uninformed/detached types who watch a lot of TV and and pick him in polls because he's the only name they can think of besides maybe Biden.
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Feb 3, 2020 20:11
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Cpt_Obvious posted:It's true, they've been focused on this impeachment charade forever. Which has ironically helped Bernie imo. It kept the whole Joe Rogan hand wringing as well as the litany of desperate hail mary attacks lobbed at Sander contained to mostly twitter because MSNBC/CNN/etc were too focused on impeachment, and it also meant Warren and Bernie were trapped in DC a lot of the time. That's been bad for Warren because she has nobody out there to take her place, but ended up being good for Bernie because he had an entourage of absolute rockstars go out to Iowa and fire up the base in his stead.
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Feb 3, 2020 20:30
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mcmagic posted:It's just so loving dumb that they completely ignore what happened in the LAST loving ELECTION and start genuflecting about what happen 40 years ago. Leaded gasoline is a hell of a drug. Particularly when you spent 40-50 years huffing it.
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Feb 3, 2020 20:42
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Lame Devil posted:How’s it looking for Bernard Saunders? Way too early to tell much of anything.
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Feb 3, 2020 22:57
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Grouchio posted:(Quick Question if Klob ranks 2nd in Iowa will she stay in the race for a while? Is a Klobuchar nomination less dystopian than a Warren one?) All the major candidates will stick around probably through Super Tuesday at a minimum. Warren/Butt/Klob/Biden are here to stay for at least another month, even if Bernie starts sweeping the table (  )A Klob nom is probably worse than a Warren one, albeit not by much.
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Feb 3, 2020 23:15
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Junior G-man posted:Yeah, really important to remember that most people don't actually pay any real attention to politics at all, and - if anyone - they'd know Biden from the Obama times and say "yeah, he's good" when asked. VP Biden also kinda had a narrative built around him as jolly old uncle Joe, so it's not just a name people recognize, it's also a persona people built up in their heads that runs counter to who Biden really is. There's a reason why every time he actually opens his mouth on the campaign trail he only hurts himself.
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Feb 4, 2020 00:36
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empty whippet box posted:"Other Candidate" has won Iowa https://twitter.com/Hbomberguy/status/1217327973172424705
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Feb 4, 2020 00:41
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It's astounding to me how bad the DNC's collective political instincts are in leaving the progressive lane completely wide open for Bernie and nobody else. Like, all Warren had to do was pay lip service to all the things Bernie is, but lean into "oh also I'm a women and younger!" and she'd probably be winning Iowa right now. Yes I know the DNC are a bunch of neoliberal centrist dipshits who abhor actual leftist policy, but Obama was also a neoliberal centrist and he at least had the instincts to lie through his teeth on the trail, unify everybody with intense energy, and then ride it into the WH where he could instantly backstab us all to preserve the status quo. He left Warren a perfect blueprint and instead of following it she handed it to a bunch of ex-Clinton staffers who shook their heads and said "no you have to appeal to swing voters!"
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Feb 4, 2020 01:29
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JordanKai posted:I got you, chief.
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Feb 4, 2020 01:35
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gandlethorpe posted:The gently caress is going on with Des Moines that so many are getting high high hopes for Butt? White people.
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Feb 4, 2020 03:57
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So basically barring some last minute blindsiding either Butt or Sanders will likely win, with Warren coming in a strong third. Not going to be a blowout for anybody. Biden coming in at a distant fourth and ate massive poo poo.
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Feb 4, 2020 05:03
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Started dieting today but I figured I was going to pour out one shot of whiskey to celebrate if our boy Bernard managed to snag it. Now I think I'm just going to pour one out, regardless of the result, because loving hell this is a shitshow.
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Feb 4, 2020 05:05
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Kirios posted:Friend, if you pour a shot of whiskey I'll pour a shot of bourbon alongside you. We're in this together. Just poured out a shot of Widow Jane, bottle is almost empty anyway. Cheers comrade
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Feb 4, 2020 05:09
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Taima posted:"pouring one out" means pouring it on the ground you white fucks. What if I'm on the ground
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Feb 4, 2020 05:11
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Taima posted:No, conceptually, the entire point is that you pour it on the ground and "waste" it. What if I'm a waste
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Feb 4, 2020 05:13
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Call me a dinosaur but something as important as voting really should be relegated to good old trusty pen and paper. Way too much room for fuckery otherwise.
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Feb 4, 2020 05:18
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Just a reminder that Bernie's campaign apparently already knew the app was hosed, made their own app and gave it to all their precinct captains to tally results, and then Bernie came out and gave what amounted to a "we don't know if I've won yet, but I've totally won" victory speech. I don't think it was the landslide we were hoping for, but it looks like Bernie did win this thing. Meanwhile he's leading by double digits in pretty much every NH poll, which would mean two notches on Bernie's belt prior to Nevada where he's currently neck-and-neck with Biden in the polls. It is very possible Bernie could snap up the first three states in the primary.
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Feb 4, 2020 06:28
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lol yeah not exactly trusting any info the DNC is putting out right now.
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Feb 4, 2020 09:17
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Feb 4, 2020 17:37
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Kirios posted:(also do cyber security) 
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Feb 4, 2020 17:44
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Bernard expected ratfucking, Bernard planned for ratfucking, Bernard was not wrong about the ratfucking.
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Feb 4, 2020 17:47
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