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goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


At least mention that Steyer really wants to be Bernie’s friend

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goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Sydin posted:

Cool, thanks. I will now officially spend my free time from now until Monday night drinking and ignoring polls and political pundits. :cheers:

Good call. Obama won Iowa despite Hillary leading; Kerry won despite Dean leading; Santorum surged (lol) even though Romney was polling ahead; basically nobody fuckin knows

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Thinking abt if the media gave the same attention to anything Biden tries to say that they gave to Howard Dean’s byeahhhh scream

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014



Ok I’m telling everyone I support Biden now

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Nazzadan posted:

If we're talking what really changed us, for me it was Charlottesville. So a more recent event than most of you but I also think I'm a little younger. From Charlottesville on I stopped browsing 4chan, cut ties with most friends I met from there and dropped a lot of words from my vocabulary.

Edit: And my fiance, she's changed me for the better in every way but simply lmao at her for settling

Thanks for making me feel old as poo poo

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Groovelord Neato posted:

Yeah the Democrat brand is dogshit it's why it's weird anyone thinks "but he's not a Democrat!" is a negative.

It’s such a bizarre manifestation of team sports mentality. Like, in a hypothetical race between Joe Manchin and the ghost of Jacob Javits I’d vote for the R in a heartbeat

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


They’re shook

https://twitter.com/kadiagoba/status/1223300486167760901?s=21

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Gyges posted:

Iowa Caucus Demographics for the last 3 cycles.

2004 -124,000 caucus-goers
  • 17-29 -17%
  • 30-44 -15%
  • 45-64 -41%
  • 65+ -27%

2008 -239,872 caucus-goers
  • 17-29 -22%
  • 30-44 -18%
  • 45-64 -36%
  • 65+ -22%

2016 -171,517 caucus-goers
  • 17-29 -18%
  • 30-44 -19%
  • 45-64 -36%
  • 65+ -28%

I don't know why the 2008 and 2016 results are off by a couple points, but that's what I could find. If we can get turnout for the 44 and under crowd up near 40%, we could be looking at a real nice Monday night.

17-year-olds can caucus? Huh TIL

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


VitalSigns posted:

Most states let you vote in the primary if you will turn 18 in time for the general election, it only makes sense.

It does, which is why I was surprised

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:

Warren really collapsed in polls didn't she?

She and Bernie are basically switched compared to a few months ago

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


https://twitter.com/tomperez/status/1223386600555646979?s=21

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Honestly the DNC should be hoping for a Bernie nom that loses to Trump because that would devastate the left for a generation

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


shutupshutupshutupshutupshutup

https://twitter.com/alxthomp/status/1223402209381179394?s=21

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


SeANMcBAY posted:

I'm actually playing this angle up with some libertarian friends in Nevada and they're thinking of temporarily switching Dem so they could vote Bernie in the primary.

Libertarians for Bernie Sanders. Christ

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


generic one posted:

Like, I understand your other points, but not this one. What’s the implication here, and where’s the link between her moving to MA, changing her registration, and Clinton (I’m assuming Bill, not Hillary, given the timeline?) being a lock for re-election?

MA was/is a very Democratic state and there was no downside to switching under a very popular Democratic president

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


kidkissinger posted:

everyone, please give bernie your energy


goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Nonsense posted:

I should know what realignment means, but in the context of this primary and or general election, I'm a bit more clueless, what would realignment mean here?

If a candidate fails to get 15% in the initial round of caucusing, that candidate is considered nonviable and their supporters have to find another candidate to support. So the worry is that, for example, Klobuchar fails to reach 15% so her supporters all flock to Biden and put him over the top

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Concerned Citizen posted:

https://twitter.com/PaigeGodden/status/1224387354858807297

update: there is now a warren sign at the ufcw caucus. this might be the crucial turning point for this caucus.

:derp:

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Wikipedia has informed me that Ottumwa is the Video Game Capital of the World. Gamers rise up for Bernie

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


theflyingorc posted:

How do the most recent polls look? I haven't checked in a few days.

Basically the same—Bernie and Biden leading, Pete and Warren a bit behind

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Vichan posted:

Non-American checking in real quick: What's the best place for live coverage of the Iowa Caucus?

Bend over and I’ll show you

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


theflyingorc posted:

I know who he is, I just don't get the part about being blocked

HoarseWhisperer blocked a shitload of accounts that he never even interacted with (including mine, and I never tweet anything) so Jack Allison came up with a challenge where if you were blocked you had to donate to Bernie

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1224471326590689287?s=21

:ohdear:

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Liquid Communism posted:

We start the first round around 715.

Probably 200 people at this caucus just for my precinct in my relatively small town.

So far, Bernie and Pete have the biggest crowds.

honestly Pete coming in second behind Bernie would be a pretty decent result

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


riseofmydick posted:

Is this a conservative or liberal part of the state?

That is the best indicator how things are going. If Bernie performs well in small conservative towns he'll definitely do well overall, probably.

Grinnell is a college town

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Grouchio posted:

How upset should I be if Buttgieg narrowly wins against Bernie? I'm about to take my nightime meds.

Not pleased but that’s probably the best outcome for Bernie if he doesn’t win

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Doesn’t seem good

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1224541132631281665?s=21

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


TGLT posted:

so is bernard "big satan" sanders, ayatollah of hell, a winner yet?

No

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1224541132631281665?s=21

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Built 4 Cuban Linux posted:

I also think there are probably a lot of anti-Trump democrats who don't have strong feelings about who the Dem nominee should be.

Also impeachment taking up a lot of media time that would otherwise be devoted to Iowa

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Josef bugman posted:

So was turn out down?

I hope not, because that's worse for Bernie than just not getting first in the particular contest.

It was, but it seems like youth turnout was a larger proportion than usual. Good news if true

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


oxsnard posted:

Bernie Email just now

Oh my god if Klobuchar beat Biden he’s absolutely toast

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Otoh assuming the full results are released and there’s no substantial question about their validity everybody is going to forget about this in a week. I realize that assumption is not a given

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


How much you wanna bet that the partial results won’t be released on time

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Useless until we have all of them

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


No website that I can see is declaring Pete the winner, they’re all acknowledging these are partial results

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


If this was meant to hurt Bernie it was pretty pathetic. Every outlet is reporting that Pete *and* Bernie are leading

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Tibalt posted:

topped out

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Ghetto SuperCzar posted:

So let me get this straight.
Bernie won Popular vote
Buttegieg won SDEs
Both get the same # of delegates?

nobody's "won" anything, we still have 40% of the results out there in the ether

goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


Antifa Turkeesian posted:

What is the basis for the argument that Mayo Pete has no path beyond Iowa? New Hampshire and Nevada are extremely white.

Nevada is in fact quite Hispanic

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goethe.cx
Apr 23, 2014


SourKraut posted:

She's such a shitstain. The AZ Democratic Party refuses to do anything about her though.


Winning a Senate seat in AZ as a Democrat for the first time in decades probably means she isn't going anywhere

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