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I peace out of politics when my first vote was Gore and, yeah. Then I got back in around Obama and made a video game about how stupid his first election was and have gotten more and more Left ever since. I'm basically the youngest group of Xers, I guess.
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Jan 31, 2020 18:13
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cargo cult posted:a lot of Muslims are positive on Bernie because he's the only viable candidate to talk about droning people and invading countries as an abject moral failure Also helps him hugely in MI, since we have the Muslim US capital. Lots of Palestinians in Dearborn particularly, too.
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Feb 4, 2020 02:50
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riseofmydick posted:Did Bernie do well rurally in 2016? Especially well.
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Feb 4, 2020 02:53
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riseofmydick posted:Why is he doing poorly in 2020? Hes not. If we had a real time map, I bet it would be similar.
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Feb 4, 2020 02:57
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As reference, Predictit is Sanders at like 77, Pete is 17. Look at it like that.
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Feb 4, 2020 03:06
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Ytlaya posted:There is actual significant Pete support in Iowa specifically, but really only Iowa. He is just bizarrely popular there. Made me x10 on Predoctit too. If theres any solace, it s that following this thread gives you a jump on more than 50 percent of this market. Tip for anyone here.
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Feb 4, 2020 05:41
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oxsnard posted:i posted last night about how the root is for centrist whites to feel better about their ghoulish opinions Yeah The Root is just finding the most centrist or obvious black opinions on stuff so white liberals can share stuff for the "my black friend" cred.
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Feb 4, 2020 18:20
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alpha_destroy posted:Edit: in reference to the coin flipper I don't think he has, but yeah, in any "serious" scenario or bet, the coin has to hit the ground since it's so easy to manipulate the flip in a covered hand. He just didn't know any better, probably.
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Feb 4, 2020 18:43
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Grouchio posted:I'm surprised we're all still wailing over the caucus clusterfuck and not cheering Bernie's apparent successes and cleverness. A bunch of people spent all day worried yesterday only to wake up with it not resolved. Its an expected situation.
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Feb 4, 2020 18:52
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Bushido Brown posted:Do we have any info on which precincts make up the 62% that's been released? CNN is showing that right now.
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Feb 4, 2020 23:11
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TyrantWD posted:I'm rooting for Bernie, but Bernie or Bust is worse than being a MAGA chud. RBG is staying alive out of pure spite at the moment, but she is not hanging on until November 2024. Heck, I'd go for a Bloomberg/Booker ticket if that's the alternative. What if the Bernie or Buster is, say, Palestinian-American, and refuses to support Zionist candidates. Are they worse than a MAGA chud?
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Feb 5, 2020 17:32
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Cup Runneth Over posted:it won't. they don't care. i don't know how y'all didn't realize this after 2016, when hillary smiled and waved her way off the stages after losing decisively. the DNC does not care about winning elections, just about making money. losing does not affect them at all, and it even saves them the burden of having to actually govern. your threats are empty to them They make more money when they have power.
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Feb 5, 2020 17:37
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Private Witt posted:NYT did an incredibly comprehensive poll of Iowa two weeks ago, and found Bernie was losing to Trump by 6 points, and Buttigieg was losing to Trump by 1. This is a state that both Bernie and Pete have blanketed with campaigning/ads/volunteers, and yet their numbers against Trump are starkly different. Buttigieg even has a higher number than Biden. He's not going to do well with older Christian black people no matter what his name recognition is. And is going to have issues with any other black people who know his history. Thus he loses states with high black populations like MI, Pennsylvania...so it's the same as last time. Democrats can't win without black people and young people.
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Feb 5, 2020 17:40
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Flip Yr Wig posted:The fact that Bernie losing the nomination will create vote abstention that will likely cost the nominee the election is a perfectly logical argument that supports his case. It's also completely unpersuasive to anyone that isn't already on board because nobody evaluates these arguments logically. Just like the lesser evil argument is morally logical but nobody is persuaded by it unless they want to be.
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Feb 5, 2020 17:43
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Flip Yr Wig posted:Look, if you believe that we are in an equally bad place right now under a Hillary presidency I'm not going to convince you otherwise. Theres more to the world than just American civil rights, and Hillarys horrendous foriegn policy is a huge danger zone for at least thousands of lives.
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Feb 5, 2020 17:46
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gohmak posted:Isn’t that how Hillary lost Michigan? Enough people said “I live in a Democrat state so I don’t have to vote lesser evil” Nah. Black people didnt come out for her like they did Obama, while Trump pulled the conservative hellworld that isnt the cities out. She assumed Detroit/Ann Arbor/etc would carry her there as well as Obama's black pull and ignored it, then she did finally do a rally in the center of Detroit and didnt realize there were huge issues when 90 percent of the people there were older white people, mostly women, from the suburbs.
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Feb 5, 2020 18:58
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Xombie posted:I held my nose and voted for Hillary in the general, I'm in a swing state, and I'd do it again because I'm not insane and/or terminally online. An argument I see people who take your stance ignore is those whose priorities are more global facing, as I mentioned before. If Hillary as SoS and in the Senate was responsible for your family members dying, would you still view her as president as better than Trump? Trump has gotten foreigners killed, yes, but it's very rational that hes been less effective at doing so than Clinton could have been. This is just one issue, too.
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Feb 5, 2020 19:06
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As an anecdote, most BoBs I know are from Dearborn, MI, and I'd be very interested in people arguing as to why they're "insane" for not voting for centrists.
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Feb 5, 2020 19:09
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oxsnard posted:it still blows my mind that the 65+ crowd, who will all but assuredly be eating cat food in the coming decades, are the most hesitant to vote for sanders They get their political education from TV, so it's not surprising
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Feb 5, 2020 19:16
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exquisite tea posted:Polls were pretty accurate in Iowa, the main miscalculation being Biden's support cratering into Pete on the second ballot. Bernie in fact performed ~4 points above his RCP aggregate. Right, it's hard to pull second alignments. Now if NH is widely different...that's an issue.
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Feb 7, 2020 14:02
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Groovelord Neato posted:I legit don't understand the polls where 60+ percent of people think the economy is doing good to excellent. Is it just Stockholm syndrome? Probably people that didn't lose their jobs (or got new ones) or houses in the last 6 years. It was waaaaayyyyyyy different in 2005-2010 or so, so practically everyone thinks it's better in comparison. Even for stuff like service industry jobs, the growth during the Obama years means you could at least get those jobs in a lot of major cities, where they didn't even exist in Bush's second term.
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Feb 7, 2020 19:56
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Black voters in the South are hugely older southern Christian who would be Trump voters if it wasn't for the Southern Strategy. There's a large possible issue with Pete there that might come into play. Other black people skew exactly like white people among age and monetary demographics. Where is Pete getting all this black vote from?
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Feb 7, 2020 22:11
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Feldegast42 posted:I am worried in regards to the black vote that Pete will play up his Christian credentials in order to sway him. He was able to get a lot of (admittedly white) people in Iowa because he is the only one of the group that would talk about his (supposed) faith. He's gay. edit: Iowa Christian is not Southern Protestant.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:23
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yronic heroism posted:Pete will probably keep campaigning as he has been and signal he will pick a black running mate if things still look bad in SC. Identity voting doesn't work that way with black people. Hillary polled over Obama for a while in the south with black people.
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Feb 7, 2020 22:29
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Kill Bristol posted:Disappointed but not surprised that Bernie/AOC's climate plan includes big subsidies to auto industry. I get the political logic behind it, he needs to win Michigan in both the primary and general. But the absolute last thing we should be doing right now in terms of reducing emissions is further subsidizing cars, yes including electric cars. That money would be better spent subsidizing dense walk-able housing development or investing in public transit. Michigan and some of South Canada would implode. Sacrificing millions for the greater good, I guess. Part of the auto bailout was that it was necessary to save a state, which it kind of did.
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Feb 7, 2020 23:53
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SimonCat posted:Or you can look up the census forms, like the ones that I have that literally tell me my great-great-grandparents were from Ireland and Bohemia.. A lot of people's history in America goes to their great grandparents or parents (because they're black, and some Irish have this issue too). For them, the best they have is correlation methods like Ancestry DNA to tell them *anything*
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Feb 9, 2020 05:15
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C2C - 2.0 posted:Addendum: I have plenty of age-related cohorts who are fascists mostly. But unlike my parents, I have a decent amount of friends who are the exact opposite.. Gen-Xr's are poo poo mostly, true. But not as garbage as Boomers. Theres a large distinction between Gen X born from like 75 onwards as opposed to before 75. Us getting the Internet while still in school really made a huge difference and made us sympathize more with Mills than Boomers, I think. That's why the 40-45 age range still hedges towards Bernie harder than those around 50. Also, many of our our first vote was Gore-Bush, theirs was Clinton.
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Feb 10, 2020 07:15
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John Wick of Dogs posted:They've gone downhill, but Contra, Super C, and Contra 3 are always going to be classics Hardcorps (Genesis) and Shattered Soldier (PS2) are probably the best ones, tho!
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Feb 10, 2020 17:09
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Hellblazer187 posted:I think this take assumes that nothing has changed or nothing is changing. Bernie's candidacy is DIFFERENT because of how successful it has been. How many delegates did Kucinich get? The left as a force within the party is bigger than it has been in decades. Regular people have a voice now in a way they never have before. Bernie losing would be bad because it would mean that Bernie lost. I think that if Bernie wins the nomination but loses in the general, the left STILL has more strength and more voice in the party than they have in ages. The left is ascendant. Issue is that a loss might create a pure split where the Left abandon the party completely and the Right just completely takes everything. Depends on how he loses, but certain types of primary losses or a loss in the General due to Democratic abandonment or them turbofucking him would possibly ruin everything.
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Feb 10, 2020 17:13
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Doctor Jeep posted:bloomberg at 15% I only watch TV at bars for sporting events and if I'm watching debates or news stuff something in the background while working, and I see a Bloomberg commercial like every break (in MI).
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Feb 10, 2020 20:25
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Failed Imagineer posted:you know you have a rock-solid model when Sanders has a dominant poll and it makes his odds go DOWN lmao Biden going too far down too early with the rise of Bloomberg makes Sanders less likely. You need both to eat each other through Super Tuesday to avoid brokerage.
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Feb 10, 2020 21:23
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exquisite tea posted:This only really becomes a problem if Bloomberg is 1) the only candidate left standing against Sanders, and 2) somehow manages to go up in appeal once scrutinized despite being a despised plutocrat nobody likes. It's more likely that Bloomberg's continued presence makes it easier for Sanders to push all the other contenders below the 15% viability threshold for delegates. Which means Bloomberg can't knock Biden down enough in South Carolina to make him drop out early, which could happen if Biden keeps turbo plummeting.
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Feb 10, 2020 21:40
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VitalSigns posted:It's kind of amusing how just last week we were worrying about what would happen if Biden did well enough to stay in through Super Tuesday, and this week we're afraid he will give up before Super Tuesday I actually forgot SC was the last one this month; if he comes in 4th in NH...it could spell big trouble.
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Feb 10, 2020 21:55
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Phenotype posted:Why is there an undercurrent of PoC voters who don't trust Bernie? I don't understand why Biden gets more voters, other than I guess riding Obama's coattails. They're old fire and brimstone Christians. Black people are as spread out as white people in this country. Younger ones are just more disenfranchised, for reasons.
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Feb 11, 2020 02:30
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The only black demographic The Root speaks for are old Xer Cosby Show framed my life black people. As someone with like 400 black people from all over on my timeline, I'm the only one who has ever shared something from there. Otherwise, its basically suburban white women. Slavery made a huge southern black Christian base, and then those that spread out from there for Industrial jobs, etc. developed area based cultures where they settled. And we/they have a normal distinction and spread in differences like anyone else in those areas. The huge difference is that younger ones are even more jaded than normal due to being double hosed by politics through history.
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Feb 11, 2020 02:39
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CNN is grilling Bloomberg reps about his stop and frisk tapes (which they played) right now, at least. edit: guess it's not a rep; I had it on in the background; they're just talking about it
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Feb 11, 2020 17:50
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exquisite tea posted:If Klob came in second I would scream, it would be too funny. Even if she finishes ahead of Warren, it would be funny. I bet on her at 10 cents to the dollar so it would be fantastic. I'm gonna dump my shares if she hits 50ish though.
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Feb 12, 2020 01:23
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The North Tower posted:I don't think she's hitting 50. If you get out at like 15-20 take the money. I invested so little, I might just ride with her. She peaked at 35 so far. Biden in 5th is...worrisome - he needs to be around in Super Tuesday, but losing or else we're going to have a serious issue with Bloomberg.
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Feb 12, 2020 01:37
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Cowcaster posted:uneducated guess but since it was just little backwaters reporting in first there were probably like 20 votes total and so if klobb got 5 that would be 25% Nah, she's just getting first in some weird tiny places, but never really dropping to less than 3 anywhere else.
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Feb 12, 2020 01:54
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1glitch0 posted:Sorry to keep reporting on CNN, but apparently Sanders winning by 6 points is bad news for him, but Buttigeig and Klobuchar coming in 2nd and 3rd is grand. To be fair, they do keep saying "why don't we take this guy seriously on here when he obviously has the momentum?" Then they keep talking about Klob.
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Feb 12, 2020 02:04
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