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Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

In the interest of setting my expectations appropriately: are we likely to learn actual results tonight? How have things gone for previous New Hampshire primaries?

I recall some articles last week about New Hampshire's voting systems potentially slowing things down and meaning we won't get timely results, but I don't clearly remember why.

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Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Yinlock posted:

winning what

the rat race

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Jewel Repetition posted:

MSNBC stream if anyone wants to see nutty Noreasterners https://www.livenewsmag.com/msnbc-news-live-stream/

lol I started just in time to hear a woman calling out MSNBC's anti-Bernie cynicism and saying it pushed her to vote for Bernie

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Sheng-Ji Yang posted:

there are now like 4 different dem primary threads. its pretty dumb.

i agree we need more

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

I saw someone call Klob supporters "Klobtrotters" today

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012


Oh god please tell me they're gonna do another "press conference" please oh please

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

RasperFat posted:

It did work the first time though. Dems listened to his dumb rear end and shut down ACORN.

You're thinking of the Project Veritas guy, not Wohl

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

brugroffil posted:

Aren't a lot of Dems replying to polls with "idgaf who the nominee is I just want to vote in November to end this poo poo"

This is super anecdotal but I got a lot of that when I was canvassing in Iowa, too. One reason turnout might have been flat overall in Iowa is that a lot of people were just kinda chill about the whole thing and didn't care who the nominee would be (and I bet a lot of them told pollsters they liked Biden best).

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Joementum posted:

they won't release actual candidate numbers until after the polls close, but they'll release demographics and we'll spend the next three hours freaking out about whether 32% first time voters is good or bad for bernie

hell yeah let's party

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Presenting Nipples posted:

WHERE ARE THE EXIT POLLS

in our hearts

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

I want Pete to lose so I can go back to the days when I didn't know who he was and I thought his name was pronounced Butty-gig

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

DEEP STATE PLOT posted:

i know where i'm gonna get my info about this primary from:

https://twitter.com/THR/status/1227257246603673600?s=19

for what purpose

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

ikanreed posted:

I wonder which election is the last that Jeb will win before the meme dies.

What if he runs in the 2024 Republican primary

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

here, watch this to stay sane

https://twitter.com/RacismFactory/status/1098445846205661184?s=20

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Tom Guycot posted:

1) This is the stupidest thing ever
2) Why the gently caress is this show still on after Roseanne's freakout?

They kicked Roseanne off the show and kept going with the rest of the cast, which is why it's just "The Conners" now instead of "Roseanne"

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

angerbeet posted:

It was a show that just very much not need to come back, and I liked the show. Make new shows!

After the Arrested Development revival I'm very much on the side of "let dead shows stay dead"

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012


Please please Klob beat Butt, oh please :pray:

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Scionix posted:

so is liz gonna endorse bernie after she drops out or double down and endorse pete or something

She either won't endorse until there's a clear winner or endorse Klob

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Pollyanna posted:

this is nowhere near the win bernie needed.

As someone who has a tendency to panic and catastrophize: please tune out. Paying this close of attention will not change any outcomes and will only make you anxious. Volunteer and donate if you can, vote when it's time, but otherwise it really isn't worth doing this to yourself.

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

What do you think Yang's future's going to be? Run for state office, cabinet post, back to private sector?

Probably back to the private sector until the next Democratic primary but he could probably do well if he ran for Congress.

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

SKULL.GIF posted:

Destroy and salt MSNBC

Apparently the results list scrolls up and down and they had just scrolled down to show Biden lol

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Kinda curious about Super Tuesday polling. Given how well Pete is doing in southern NH I wonder how he's doing in MA.

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

a fatguy baldspot posted:

how in the world is the race this close
bernie won by 22 percentage points in 2016
what the gently caress
what
the
gently caress

2016 was Clinton vs. Not Clinton

2020 is a different race with a shitload of candidates and people have lots of reasons for voting for different candidates that don't always make sense to us more ideologically-minded types

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

If the piss circles keep getting to you just reply to every one of them with "does the yellow circle mean you love piss"

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Pollyanna posted:

if these results hold bernie will only get like 25% of ca compared to butt's 24.50%

Boot Edge Edge is polling at half of Bernie's numbers in California and early voting has already started.

You're not really factoring in that Pete has poured everything into Iowa and New Hampshire and has no campaign presence anywhere else. He also polls like poo poo with anyone other than white voters, which is a recipe for doing well in Iowa and New Hampshire but won't help him much past then.

Should we take him seriously as a threat? Yeah, probably. But every state is different and his performance in Iowa and New Hampshire isn't at all predictive of how he'll do in future states.

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Those of you worried by how narrow a victory this was: remember that Pete has spent this entire campaign so far in Iowa and New Hampshire. He put everything there. He was counting on winning and then turning that momentum into support elsewhere. He didn't win. He'll pick up some steam in later states but not as much as he was counting on, and it's probably not going to substitute for having an actual campaign organization like it appears he was hoping it would.

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Pollyanna posted:

So, he has done no campaigning whatsoever outside of Iowa and NH? I find that hard to believe.

I mean, he's started doing ad buys in Super Tuesday states as of a few days ago, but prior to that I don't think he has.

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

South Carolina is going to be interesting. I really want to see polling soon, because I have to imagine Biden's awful performances in Iowa and New Hampshire (combined with his constant public gaffes) have hurt him pretty severely there.

Last I saw, Bernie and Steyer were best positioned to move up as Biden falls. If Bernie doesn't win SC, it might loving be Steyer, and honestly that would be pretty loving funny.

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

dads friend steve posted:

wtf is arzying? I mean, I get the gist of it from context, but I’ve never heard it before

Arzy was a poster in 2008 who freaked out every time Obama had a bad poll or a bad headline.

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Water Resistant posted:

He's only winning because the moderate vote is split. If that split can continue for another couple of months then he'll probably be able to get the nomination wrapped up.

But I think the moderate wing, which so far appears to be quite a lot larger than Bernie's, will consolidate around either Pete or Amy. Then he'll be in real trouble. He's only barely winning pluralities and isn't close to majorities. So yeah, Bernie fans should be Arzying at this point. But in the other hand Trump made it to the nomination thanks to a split party, so recent history is on Bernie's side.

I think the other thing is that most voters aren't that ideological and support for the "moderate" candidates is generally pretty soft. I'm sure there are plenty of voters who are specifically looking for a moderate and would not vote for a progressive in a primary, but there are a ton of other reasons people pick candidates, and it's not at all clear that moderate support would consolidate under a single moderate even if all but one of them dropped out. In fact, what little second choice polling there's been--mostly by Morning Consult--shows Bernie as a popular second choice for Biden and Warren supporters, and even some Buttigieg and Bloomberg supporters. It's not really all that clear-cut, is what I'm saying.

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Echo Chamber posted:

Elizabeth: The Last Kneebender

Comedy option: Warren is so thoroughly unwilling to endorse Bernie that she switches back to being a Republican when he wins the nomination

Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Straight White Shark posted:

People like winners. That's why the ratfucking in Iowa was such a big deal. Neither of these states means jack poo poo in terms of the nomination except as a way to get attention.

This is also correct and it's why Pete put so much effort into winning both of these states. He didn't. Well, he gets to pretend he won Iowa and the IDP is happy to play along, but he didn't win New Hampshire. Who knows what several media cycles focusing on his "strong second" will do but I doubt they'll magically earn him any non-white support at all.

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Harrow
Jun 30, 2012

Yinlock posted:

chris matthews status: mumbling about how only the old can be trusted

Will there be good clips of him tomorrow for be to lmao at

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