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Sampatrick posted:Good news! There's currently a major Ebola outbreak in Kivu today! Also good news, it's not a big threat to people all over the world because the lethality rate is too high so, y'know, that's something. Yeah I've been keeping an eye on all the outbreaks for a few years now (it was part of my grad thesis). Can you imagine something with that lethality hitting a big city in Asia or Europe or the US? Christ.
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Feb 28, 2020 03:37
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Snow Cone Capone posted:Yeah I've been keeping an eye on all the outbreaks for a few years now (it was part of my grad thesis). Can you imagine something with that lethality hitting a big city in Asia or Europe or the US? Christ. Just imagine how terrible it would be if such an outbreak occurred at the Davos world economic forum. Horrible thought!
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Feb 28, 2020 03:46
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sitchensis posted:Just imagine how terrible it would be if such an outbreak occurred at the Davos world economic forum. Horrible thought! Yeah there's a shitload of regular-rear end people behind the scenes making everything function, that'd be really sad 
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Feb 28, 2020 03:49
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233220106324451328 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233218304271167489 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233208695099666433 trump is being trump about the virus.
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Feb 28, 2020 03:56
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Snow Cone Capone posted:Yeah there's a shitload of regular-rear end people behind the scenes making everything function, that'd be really sad They're just doing their job after all.
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Feb 28, 2020 04:11
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trump is the virus
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Feb 28, 2020 04:12
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human garbage bag posted:They're just doing their job after all. Sorry are you trying to compare the maintenance crew at the Davos Hotel or whatever to actual nazi soldiers? Snow Cone Capone fucked around with this message at 04:20 on Feb 28, 2020 |
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Feb 28, 2020 04:16
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:The answer is basically: who cares. You can go to reddit and talk about that stuff. This disease is a disease, but people use it as a chance to air all their complaints they have about china or asian people or whatever. Like I'm sure there is a real discussion on food safety, but it's clearly in every thread and forum not a legitimate discussion and is just people using a natural disaster as their big chance to go "lamo, orientals eat different food than us, owned!" over and over. This natural disaster is directly caused by human actions and practices. There's a reason we don't have new, potentially world-pandemic diseases spawning every decade from Illinois or Utah. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Feb 28, 2020 04:19
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WOWEE ZOWEE posted:If the Coronavirus kicks the US into a recession I think this will be the first time in US history that a disease was the primary cause of a recession. "Trigger" is a much better word than "cause" here.
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Feb 28, 2020 04:29
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:"Trigger" is a much better word than "cause" here. Yeah, there has been a laughably huge tech bubble for a while.
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Feb 28, 2020 04:41
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EasternBronze posted:This natural disaster is directly caused by human actions and practices. There's a reason we don't have new, potentially world-pandemic diseases spawning every decade from Illinois or Utah. Goddamn you are really leaning in on that redtext.
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Feb 28, 2020 04:50
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EasternBronze posted:This natural disaster is directly caused by human actions and practices. There's a reason we don't have new, potentially world-pandemic diseases spawning every decade from Illinois or Utah. I don't get it either. There's an entire chapter in the book Spillover that talks about wild flavor. quote:Exemplary science writer Quammen schools us in the fascinating if alarming facts about zoonotic diseases, animal infections that sicken humans, such as rabies, Ebola, influenza, and West Nile. Zoonoses can escalate rapidly into global pandemics when human-to-human transmission occurs, and Quammen wants us to understand disease dynamics and exactly what’s at stake. Drawing on the truly dramatic history of virology, he profiles brave and stubborn viral sleuths and recounts his own hair-raising field adventures, including helping capture large fruit bats in Bangladesh. Along the way, Quammen explains how devilishly difficult it is to trace the origins of a zoonosis and explicates the hidden process by which pathogens spill over from their respective reservoir hosts (water fowl, mosquitoes, pigs, bats, monkeys) and infect humans. We contract Lyme disease after it’s spread by black-legged ticks and white-footed mice, not white-tailed deer as commonly believed. The SARS epidemic involves China’s wild flavor trend and the eating of civets. Quammen’s revelatory, far-reaching investigation into AIDS begins in 1908 with a bloody encounter between a hunter and a chimpanzee in Cameroon. Zoonotic diseases are now on the rise due to our increasing population, deforestation, fragmented ecosystems, and factory farming. Quammen spent six years on this vital, in-depth tour de force in the hope that knowledge will engender preparedness. An essential work. Scientists are currently trying to identify every virus that exists in wildlife (1000 novel viruses identified so far) to help predict and prevent the next spillover event. The prevention comes from identifying and curtailing risky customs, practices, and beliefs. https://ohi.vetmed.ucdavis.edu/programs-projects/predict-project/about "Project PREDICT' posted:Behavioral Risk
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Feb 28, 2020 04:52
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Sampatrick posted:afaik viruses are never really considered for bio weapons because they can't reasonably be controlled. the only real possibility is if it was some type of virus intended for livestock that jumped from livestock to people but that seems incredibly unlikely. USSR did a shitload of work on human-infectious strains of rabbit and horsepox in the 70s/80s and from interviews with the scientists later had a decent amount of success in making semi-controllable tactical level pathogens (meaning they weren't meant to infect large populations, just targeted battlefield locations). I don't think anyone's done any real heavy duty offensive bio-weapons research, or at least not overtly, since the collapse of the Soviets though. The amount of effort that goes into researching and manufacturing bioweapons compared to chemical ones is just astronomical, and they are much riskier to handle and deploy as well. Nurge fucked around with this message at 13:22 on Feb 28, 2020 |
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Feb 28, 2020 13:18
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Snow Cone Capone posted:Sorry are you trying to compare the maintenance crew at the Davos Hotel or whatever to actual nazi soldiers? Nah, more like French collaborators who wined and dined their Nazi occupiers.
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Feb 28, 2020 13:24
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human garbage bag posted:Nah, more like French collaborators who wined and dined their Nazi occupiers.  e: whose rereg are you Snow Cone Capone fucked around with this message at 13:45 on Feb 28, 2020 |
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Feb 28, 2020 13:31
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WOWEE ZOWEE posted:If the Coronavirus kicks the US into a recession I think this will be the first time in US history that a disease was the primary cause of a recession. I was thinking about that last night. Looking back at other pandemics, whatever resulting damage to the market and economy had other primary causes, whereas this time things were moving along pretty well before this virus. Having said that, stocks were overvalued from a historical perspective and the yield curve has been inverted for a while, which apparently means something. It's not just regular style market panic either. The biggest project I'm working on right now is facing major delays because our supply chain is all hosed up. Cisco, Apple, basically everyone is living off the seed corn in the US warehouses now. Iphone 8s are out of stock months sooner than Apple had planned on EOL'ing them
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Feb 28, 2020 13:59
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youre dick posted:I was thinking about that last night. Looking back at other pandemics, whatever resulting damage to the market and economy had other primary causes, whereas this time things were moving along pretty well before this virus. Having said that, stocks were overvalued from a historical perspective and the yield curve has been inverted for a while, which apparently means something. Weirdly a big project I'm working on was facing serious delays, but the factory got back to me 2 days ago and they were like "not only are we back in business but we're working overtime to catch up and your original mid-April delivery date is still valid" Also, pre-COV I was getting about 4-5 solicitation emails from various kinds of manufacturers in China, during the virus that stopped entirely, and since last Thursday I've been getting 1-3 daily again, mostly big announcements that they've reopened and are ramping up production again. OTOH my supply chain for the project is 1 PCB maker, 1 aluminum tooling company and 1 company that makes high-voltage wiring, so I'd imagine something like an iPhone has a much larger supply chain that can be hosed up in more ways.
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Feb 28, 2020 14:05
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youre dick posted:I was thinking about that last night. Looking back at other pandemics, whatever resulting damage to the market and economy had other primary causes, whereas this time things were moving along pretty well before this virus. Having said that, stocks were overvalued from a historical perspective and the yield curve has been inverted for a while, which apparently means something. I would not at all describe things as "moving along pretty well." After 2008, we put a bandaid over the economy without addressing any of the key causes or lasting scars. Most Americans lack access to affordable healthcare and are living paycheck to paycheck. Imagine how many people are about to be forced into a hospital they can't afford, missing time at work that isn't protected for them. And now all those people are suddenly in debt several grand with no source of income. This leads to some the consumer class being unable to purchase anything but food and every industry taking a financial hit, in turn laying off more workers who buy less stuff AND now can't afford to go to the hospital since their health insurance was through an employer. It's less the virus causing the issue as it is striking an obvious weak point in a more effective way than ever before.
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Feb 28, 2020 14:27
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/spitting out wine and dropping baguette https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1233383118679224326?s=21
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Feb 28, 2020 14:31
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FizFashizzle posted:/spitting out wine and dropping baguette On a scale of 1-10 how bad is disease spread at one of the big transcontinental airports in europe?
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Feb 28, 2020 14:34
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Herstory Begins Now posted:On a scale of 1-10 how bad is disease spread at one of the big transcontinental airports in europe? It basically means large scale quarantines are now useless and it's going to be everywhere apart from maybe antarctica and some pacific islands. Although that was more or less guaranteed when they failed to arrest it in China to begin with.
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Feb 28, 2020 14:37
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Herstory Begins Now posted:On a scale of 1-10 how bad is disease spread at one of the big transcontinental airports in europe? quote:French Health Minister Olivier Véran announced late Thursday that the total number of cases in France had risen from 18 to 38 in the past 24 hours. That is not what is happening here. The evidence is almost nonexistent.
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Feb 28, 2020 14:53
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Out of curiosity, has there ever been a case of a large urban areas being successfully quarantined and? My understanding was that quarantine was a measure for slowing the spread of an infectious disease most of the time, not an impermeable wall.
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Feb 28, 2020 14:57
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MixMastaTJ posted:I would not at all describe things as "moving along pretty well." After 2008, we put a bandaid over the economy without addressing any of the key causes or lasting scars. Most Americans lack access to affordable healthcare and are living paycheck to paycheck. Imagine how many people are about to be forced into a hospital they can't afford, missing time at work that isn't protected for them. And now all those people are suddenly in debt several grand with no source of income. This leads to some the consumer class being unable to purchase anything but food and every industry taking a financial hit, in turn laying off more workers who buy less stuff AND now can't afford to go to the hospital since their health insurance was through an employer. Good job entirely missing the point. Spanish Flu had World War 1. People lacking affordable healthcare doesn't do the same thing to the stock market as does a world war. I really shouldn't have to explain this.
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Feb 28, 2020 15:00
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Snow Cone Capone posted:Weirdly a big project I'm working on was facing serious delays, but the factory got back to me 2 days ago and they were like "not only are we back in business but we're working overtime to catch up and your original mid-April delivery date is still valid" So, yeah, that's exactly the case. My projects require finished electronic components (mobile & fixed routers, security appliances, etc) that are at the very end of a long supply chain, and companies like Cisco love Just In Time manufacturing. That's pretty efficient but susceptible to hiccups anywhere along the line. Some of the more specialized device manufacturers take a back seat to the Ciscos of the world so those hiccups get amplified both initially, and also when factories are playing catch up. It's a timely discussion though, on a project call right now and one of our manufacturers has secured production from a factory in Vietnam and claims they can catch up before the (really bad) SLAs kick in
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Feb 28, 2020 15:04
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Sampatrick posted:Out of curiosity, has there ever been a case of a large urban areas being successfully quarantined and? My understanding was that quarantine was a measure for slowing the spread of an infectious disease most of the time, not an impermeable wall. I think slowing the infection is the success. It's like herd immunity, you don't need to vaccinate literally every single person with literally 100% effective vaccine to stop a disease. You just need to slow it enough so it fizzles out. Like for how scary this disease has been there really has not been all that many cases. Like every cluster gets contained and so less clusters appear.
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Feb 28, 2020 15:19
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youre dick posted:So, yeah, that's exactly the case. My projects require finished electronic components (mobile & fixed routers, security appliances, etc) that are at the very end of a long supply chain, and companies like Cisco love Just In Time manufacturing. That's pretty efficient but susceptible to hiccups anywhere along the line. Some of the more specialized device manufacturers take a back seat to the Ciscos of the world so those hiccups get amplified both initially, and also when factories are playing catch up. Yeah, one of our product manufacturers has facilities in Taiwan so we dodged a bullet on that one; we had found alternate manufacturers in Korea and Thailand for another project but the lower bid of the 2 was still almost 3x the China cost that one's just gonna have to be delayed until they get back on their feet.
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Feb 28, 2020 15:21
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So there are reports people had corona and got better have been reinfected, not immune. That seems horrifying if accurate.
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Feb 28, 2020 15:59
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Lid posted:So there are reports people had corona and got better have been reinfected, not immune. That seems horrifying if accurate. I'd take it with a grain of salt. While I won't say it's impossible it's reinfecting people, it seems much more likely it's just lingering enough that one test can report them clean but another finds traces of the virus.
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Feb 28, 2020 16:16
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https://twitter.com/ronanburtenshaw/status/1233329013042696192
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Feb 28, 2020 16:36
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Lid posted:So there are reports people had corona and got better have been reinfected, not immune. That seems horrifying if accurate. The report is really not that. The report was that several people who recovered and tested negative and did not have symptoms later tested weakly positive on fecal tests. Like they didn't get re-sick as much as a later more sensitive test found smaller amounts of virus in in their body after their symptoms ended. It's like all the people with HIV with undetectable virus loads, if later on we find a different kind of test to do on them and it comes back positive that isn't really a huge deal, it's not them getting re-sick, just a different test being better able to detect low level asymptomatic infections.
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Feb 28, 2020 16:46
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https://youtu.be/cmIRMHzBZdU I find Dr. John Campbell's daily updates to be pretty straightforward and concise, and he goes over the day's news and gives some context and explanation (like for the reinfection headline). Some good reporting from a medical teacher to add to your media diet re this stuff.
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Feb 28, 2020 16:52
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The one good thing about getting inflected is at least you don’t get reinfected. Until the mutation next year.
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Feb 28, 2020 17:31
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:I think slowing the infection is the success. It's like herd immunity, you don't need to vaccinate literally every single person with literally 100% effective vaccine to stop a disease. You just need to slow it enough so it fizzles out. Like for how scary this disease has been there really has not been all that many cases. Like every cluster gets contained and so less clusters appear. Herd immunity is not at all what quarantine is about. Infact that literally doesn't make sense because there is no herd immunity being formed. But yes the idea is to slow the rate of infection or stamp it out at the source entirely. Hopefully it will slow enough that the warm weather will come in time to give it real problems hanging around in the air and on surfaces. There is also a school of thought that it also might coerce the virus to evolve into a much milder form. It seems though this bastard can stay very mild and people can infect others for a very long time until poo poo Gets Real and they start coughing their lungs apart.
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Feb 28, 2020 17:43
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mutata posted:https://youtu.be/cmIRMHzBZdU Thank you for this!
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Feb 28, 2020 17:44
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qhat posted:Herd immunity is not at all what quarantine is about. Infact that literally doesn't make sense because there is no herd immunity being formed. I mean, similar to herd immunity for a disease to die out in a community you don't need perfect control, you only need control that is sufficiently good to allow the disease to fizzle. A quarantine that was not perfectly air tight could still be perfectly successful in slowing and ending a disease. Like they don't have to aim for 100.00% perfection, if they manage to quarantine like 95% of the cases and fail on 5% they can still see the curve of the infection rate reverse direction and the numbers start to shrink. Even if they have failed to end it instantly in one step.
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Feb 28, 2020 18:30
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Krispy Wafer posted:The one good thing about getting inflected is at least you don’t get reinfected. Good news! Corona viruses mutate fast enough that you CAN catch it again within a short period.
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Feb 28, 2020 18:45
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Communist Q posted:Good news! Corona viruses mutate fast enough that you CAN catch it again within a short period. That's not even what the article claims though: quote:“Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms, and then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs,” said Prof Philip Tierno at New York University’s school of medicine. He said much remained unknown about the virus. “I’m not certain that this is not biphasic, like anthrax,” he said, meaning the disease might appear to go away before recurring. E: that's still bad if true regardless, this virus is uniquely hard to contain. America Inc. fucked around with this message at 18:59 on Feb 28, 2020 |
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Feb 28, 2020 18:55
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Communist Q posted:Good news! Corona viruses mutate fast enough that you CAN catch it again within a short period. As WOWEE ZOWEE pointed out, the article does not say what you claim it does. The video that mutata posted a little bit upthread addresses this at about the 4:15 mark. It currently looks likely that the virus is genetically stable, and reinfections are unlikely. We don't know for sure, but it seems like a more likely explanation here is that the same infection was not fully gone.
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Feb 28, 2020 19:18
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So my company's Shanghai office is being re-opened, and at least half the staff will be present. Schools are still closed so people are working from home taking care of their kids. The company's stock is also up today. Plus for us at least.
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Feb 28, 2020 20:40
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