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Who is your first pick in the deputy leadership race?
This poll is closed.
R. Allin-Khan 6 1.60%
R. Burgon 80 21.33%
D. Butler 72 19.20%
A. Rayner 35 9.33%
I. Murray 5 1.33%
P. Flaps 177 47.20%
Total: 375 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Could I use the UKMT collective brain for a moment? There's a theory that basically says journalism seems plausible until it's in a subject you're educated in. I can't remember what it's called and am finding it hard to define in a way that Google finds it.

Does anyone know?

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knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

namesake posted:

No but you reminded me of the great anecdote about how everyone across the planet who reads the economist reads it for their foreign coverage because everyone sees how laughable their local analysis is.

Haha... This is not-coincidentally about an article in the Economist

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Awesome. Thanks everyone!

ronya posted:

"Gell-Mann amnesia", actually coined by Michael Crichton

He then merrily followed this down the garden path of global warming denialism, so... y'know. Word of warning and all that.

Noted

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Guavanaut posted:

The two balls should have different medical names, I propose levicle and dexticle.

Dextricle and sinistericle.

The canteen at work has segregated us so different bits of the building have to eat at different times. Just hurry up and tell me I can work from home goddammit.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.


Looking at the most recent stats the mortality of corvid-19 in Italy is 7x higher than in South Korea, with the implication that Italy basically isn't testing patients unless they are really sick. That report looks like Italy is basically just along for the ride at this point.

From a purely selfish perspective I have "moderate" asthma and am otherwise healthy so will probably not do well with a respiratory failure + cytokine storm situation. Just waiting until I can retreat to the countryside.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

TheRat posted:

Apparently Italy has the second best healthcare system in the world (acording to WHO), and the worst of the outbreak is hitting the richest/most wellequipped region of Italy.

Sure. And - this may be your point - they are still completely overwhelmed.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

GazChap posted:

Some kids at one of the colleges in my home town (Shrewsbury, fact fans) returned from a college-organised skiing trip to Northern Italy on Sunday.

They were in the Valle D'Aosta (sp?) region, which was not quite in the quarantined zone at the time, but not *that* far off.

They were told by college officials that they were to come in on Monday as normal.

Then Italy went into full lockdown.

Tuesday rolls around, they're told not to come in any more and (perhaps entirely coincidentally, no clue either way) Shropshire gets its first confirmed diagnosis...

Coronavirus notwithstanding, lucky kids. The Val d'Aosta is gorgeous. I took my bike up some of the mountain roads up to Gressoney and then over the St Bernard pass last summer.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Olpainless posted:

Also, this is pretty interesting, regarding Italy's higher death rate -

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?c=gt-S_614

There's a mutation on the spike protein that seems to be basically just expressed in the italian cases. Seeing as that's the important one for infectivity, wonder if this is making it easier to gain entry to cells?
(I mean, I know that there's also a more elderly population in Italy that's more likely. But it sure is interesting!)

Any advice on how to interpret that website? It's hard (for me) to tell what's going on. Yellow bit = a mutation for a virulence factor?

Someone in my office has just been diagnosed with coronavirus. I am going to work from somewhere in the mountains until further notice. Though that will be about 20km from Italy so... Yeah.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

ThomasPaine posted:

Guess I'd better stock up on wine lol

I'm off to the co-op to panic buy some burgundy. Also my boss has given approval for me to work from home for the foreseeable future.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

WhatEvil posted:

Also I picked up these:




Haven't tried them yet, will report back.

Oh no

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Sanford posted:

Just had a management meeting, looked like we were going to instruct full working from home (software company) and then the Financial Director said unless we could, there and then, tell him where a 20% revenue boost was coming from to cover what he expects we'd lose he would veto it. We could not, and so he did. Company policy now is to use paper towels rather than hand towels, and all meeting rooms are to have at least one window open while in use. That'll do, I'm sure.

What an arsehole. I suppose it would not have been possible to say you can't answer that until he provides the [citation needed] for that 20%? Hard to reverse the lost revenue until you know why the revenue was lost.

Quite surprised it's in his remit tbh.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Communist Thoughts posted:

Yeah like I said, snide and cowardly guardian poo poo.

Call this out ffs why is everyone so desperate to pretend this is fine. Its murder

Obviously nothing will ever actually happen, but are politicians theoretically criminally liable if they make negligent decisions that lead to (say) hundreds of thousands of excess deaths? Or do they just get to say "my bad" as 500,000 corpses have to be disposed of?

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Guavanaut posted:

I like paternosters. Bad system for a hospital but just in general. Up box. Down box. They used to have one at Leicester Uni.

I think there's still a working one somewhere in Czechia.

There was one at Birmingham University dentistry school where I studied for a while. I remember there was a guy who was found nicking stuff from a lab late one evening and tried to make the slowest possible escape on the paternoster.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.


I picked up swine flu back in 2009 which permanently hosed my lungs and gave me asthma. Very keen not to get this one.


I don't think this stuff about myocarditis is actually true, it's a nasty respiratory virus.

E: OK there is apparently some risk of myocarditis
https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202003.0180/v1

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.


Wow look at Spain go. NB logarithmic scale on the Y axis.

There are 99 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the state of Georgia as of today.

knox_harrington fucked around with this message at 23:36 on Mar 15, 2020

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

ThomasPaine posted:

as a historian of health can I just take the time to say how wonderfully interesting this whole thing is going to be once i'm not immediately at risk of dying from it

Your perspective on this would be really interesting, I'd love to read it once the epidemic has all blown over.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

TheRat posted:

From the corona-thread:


tl;dr based on what I could translate:

- Chinese stats on mild/serious/critical were generally accurate (80%/14%/6%)
- For those who die, progress is rapid at around ~10 days from onset of symptoms to death
- Fucks with families a la radiation poisoning by having a period where symptoms improve before things go catastrophically wrong
- No change in white blood cell count even 10 days after onset of symptoms (?!?!)
- Fever, sometimes intermittent, for 10+ days
- For hospitalized cases, 1/3 have mild respiratory symptoms, 1/3rd need something like a non-rebreather mask, 1/3rd end up on an intubator

edit:
old news sorry :ohdear:

Thanks for forwarding, I really appreciate it. Yeah the language is certainly correct medical jargon and abbreviations, and some of the details are consistent with other stuff I've heard (e.g. characteristic lymphopenia). I hadn't heard the cardiac stuff. The rest of my clinical team is mostly in Seattle, I'll ask around.

e: thinking about it aren't most of the deaths from that nursing home? I feel a bit sceptical about the account.

knox_harrington fucked around with this message at 00:10 on Mar 16, 2020

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

I recommend listening to nice music and having a few beers.
Radio Venao: http://s1.sonicabroadcast.com:8805/;listen.mp3/

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

oxford_town posted:

Dr Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health, University of Southampton, said:



I said some unkind stuff.

Anyway I think he is clearly wrong? There appears to be pretty solid data from other countries that social distancing works.

knox_harrington fucked around with this message at 00:35 on Mar 16, 2020

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Camrath posted:

Hopefully having to literally flee for the border will take some of the wind out of my Tory-loving dad’s sails..

It won't. You know how it goes.

Anyway I had to watch an English woman touching all the products in the bakery section of the supermarket instead of using the tongs GO HOME

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Guavanaut posted:

I mean HIV is pretty famous for white blood cell count not increasing over the course of this disease, but that's more different.

Traditionally it was thought that elevated WBC count during fever was a sign of bacterial infection and viral fevers from rhinovirus or corona did not change WBC count, but the current research is that that's not a reliable sign on its own.

Specifically this virus seems to cause depressed lymphocyte count, particularly in more severe cases. Bacterial infection generally causes an increase in neutrophil count.

In my work (cancer cell therapy research/development) we deplete patients' lymphocyte count to help the therapeutic cells expand, so patients will be particularly at risk from covid-19. A proportion of patients also get side effects that require ICU admission so clearly not good if the ICU is full. Balanced against that, the therapy is potentially curative and the patients have no other good options so there's a pretty finely balanced risk/benefit decision.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

quote:

According to the complaints of a survivor, the medical graduate student (24 years old) from Wuhan University, she must stay awake and breathe consciously and actively during the intensive care.

Ultimate nightmare

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Guavanaut posted:

You need 60% minimum. Wray & Nephew Overproof Rum might work at a pinch. Or methylated spirits (don't do the drinking part with this).

40% will probably still work tbh. But as you say the closer to 70% the better.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

The Perfect Element posted:

Is there a decent, concise source of information which will make people start taking this loving thing seriously? .

I would suggest forwarding the journal article I posted that describes young people losing their respiratory drive. Seems to have worked with some of my less sensible friends.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

NotJustANumber99 posted:

Murdered by your own vanity.

Regarding that Reuters article, of stainless steel is so good at keeping the nasty virus active why are all those big posh professional kitchens not made of cardboard?

Steel + bleach > cardboard + nothing

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Just having to persuade a friend that deliberately getting infected with coronavirus "to get it over with" is probably not a great strategy.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

ThomasPaine posted:

If you can get ahold of some Sudafed Blocked Nose spray (in the blue bottle) is like a nuke and clears you right out

This stuff has a strong rebound effect so can leave you worse in the long run. Use really sparingly or preferably not at all.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinitis_medicamentosa

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Finding it quite hard to escape from thinking and reading about coronavirus. Work is maybe 50% working out how and whether to continue treating patients for their cancer during the outbreak, 50% normal science work on writing protocols for the next treatments. My amount of work has increased quite a lot and I don't have time for exercise at the moment.

Then outside work absolutely everything on the net is about the pandemic, and I accidentally started reading the coronavirus thread which is packed with people confidently asserting things they don't really understand. My brain needs a break and it's only 1 week in.

Must be dreadful for hospital staff. I know I am actually very lucky.

/moan

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

JeremoudCorbynejad posted:

Who's got FT access? I want to see what's behind this headline: "US drugmaker doubled price on potential coronavirus treatment" :thermidor:

https://www.ft.com/content/b7a21a16-6a1f-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

Finding a link on Twitter usually works

https://mobile.twitter.com/MrHickmott/status/1240761732659908608

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

I had thought that Angostura bitters had lots or quinine but apparently they don't, or at least it's unknown. But these bitters do:
http://bittermens.com/speed-craft-cocktail-syrups/tonic-syrup/

Old fashioneds for everyone

Barry Foster posted:

Get off the internet for a day or two, in your free time anyway. Specifically avoid twitter, news sites, SA, FB (lol), and any other crack that lets the outside world in. Watch films or tv or play vidja games or get high and/or drunk and listen to music.

You are right. I'm going for a jog.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Necrothatcher posted:

Dad (Pharmacist): Has been spat on a few times as a result.

What the gently caress?

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

pumpinglemma posted:

The silver lining is that I think ventolin is one of the steroids that actually makes coronavirus symptoms worse? Still worth taking if you're having a genuine asthma attack, but anyone who's taking inhalers away from people who need them is going to get what they deserve.

Ventolin isn't a steroid, and no I had not heard that. How would that work?

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005755

Covid-19 and the Stiff Upper Lip — The Pandemic Response in the United Kingdom

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

baka kaba posted:

it just sounded funny in that awkwardly americanised way

It's the new england journal

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Necrothatcher posted:

I'm hosting a Court of Appeal hearing from my living room over Skype this morning. Got 3 judges and 10 lawyers dialling in. Hope to gently caress it works!

I can only imagine how poo poo judges are at using conference call software. So much feedback and non-muting.

Condolances

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

goddamnedtwisto posted:

Seems like an opportunity for Snapchat For Business to launch, automatically superimposing wigs, gowns, business suits, or whatever dress is appropriate over the third-day underwear that most people are actually wearing after an extended bout of WFH.

Apols for reddit
https://old.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/fntilv/priest_in_italy_live_streams_mass_activates/

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Guavanaut posted:

Initial viral load seems to have a large weighting on later experience among equivalent people, a high initial viral load like in the Birmingham church cases seems to have worse outcomes than from a single exposure. It makes sense if you draw an exponential graph starting with 2^1, 2^2, 2^3, 2^4... and compare it with 3^1, 3^2, 3^3, 3^4...


The confusion between viral load / inoculum (or infectious dose) is all over the place and there's also a chain email purporting to be from various consultants promoting it. Super annoying. It's possible that the infectious dose does influence disease severity as that happens with other but not all viruses. But the likelihood of getting a big dose is mostly related to being super close and involved with aerosol generating procedures like intubation - thus medical staff being particularly at risk.

There's some interesting articles in this nice BMJ blog including a couple on transmission.
https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/03/23/richard-lehmans-covid-19-reviews-23-march-2020/

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

jabby posted:

Spoiler: they won't get ventilated.

At my hospital registrars are already having this conversation with lots of our cancer patients and anyone with severe comorbidities. You catch the Covid, don't expect to go to intensive care. Hell, because of a lack of suitable PPE it's being seriously considered not to even do CPR on anyone with suspected Covid.

Yeah. MERS =/= COVID-19 but a small rétrospective analysis showed 100% mortality in advanced and haematological malignancy

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32196389/

On the other hand patients on my studies have no alternative treatment options and the PIs are pushing to treat.

knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

justcola posted:

Matt Hancock looking like a college intern asked to give a presentation to middle management about something so far beyond his comprehension he is the avatar of imposter syndrome.

All of the planning behind all this will be incredibly mundane, like a corporate away day where they have to LARP a pandemic response but nobody can be bothered and feels entirely out of their depth.

Undoubtedly this. But is it still imposter syndrome if you are actually that incompetent?

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knox_harrington
Feb 18, 2011

Running no point.

Mugsbaloney posted:

Someone talk me out of buying a bike.

What sort of bike? And how good is the deal?

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