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Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



to clear up the hdmi/vga security talk from the last page here's some probable considerations that got overruled by time

- vga is pretty simple and is one-way video, whereas hdmi can do everything including networking with manufacturer extensions to a very open protocol so 'validating' it is a never-ending task
- on the other hand hdcp keeps being popped open and there's a great writeup on key extraction for hdcp 1 floating around
- tempest is screen emissions mainly and if you're into sdrs you can try it at home since you have time to spare
- these kind of attacks do still get used for intel gathering but pale in comparison to what the cabinet would just handover to a friendly consultant so it's more security science than practice

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Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



i mean i went with "one-way video" when phoneposting to not go into the metadata nuance, but what i really mean is that you're not expecting the other side of the cable to do any complex processing. meanwhile with hdmi and hdcp you're moving onto a random officer working at home plugging into a smart tv for convenience. far more complicated display device than anything relying on vga, but they're stupid convenience factors to even allow for outside of controlled environments

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



that's more due to them allowing UNC paths, it meets microsoft's terrible definition of an RCE though
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Om1w4DVkkEU

and the reason that zoom allows it at all? well...
https://twitter.com/BillDemirkapi/status/1245271580852322304

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



Darth Walrus posted:

Lancet says the average time from infection until death is eighteen days, so we'll likely be on a steady exponential rise until early next week when the effects of the lockdown become apparent.
we don't have a true lockdown though just a half-hearted one which looks similar economically but the virus won't care. there'll be a slow down of infections, but it'll still be moving around the country. any attempts at removing the lockdown are pointless until all 'essential' movement is stopped - or everyone doing them gets infected/dies and the virus vanishes from all surfaces in the country. then we can't have any international movement for months either until this is globally eradicated (which is effectively never if we're not helping third world countries) / wide effective vaccine is deployed (year+ at least) / herd immunity (:rip:)

i mean i know which one the tories are wanting for Number but we're in this for the the very long haul and wuhan's only slowly starting to get back after an absolute lockdown. ultimately because no one wants to be honest with the public there's going to be a quiet reseed globally when these lockdowns are lifted prematurely, and everyone's going to act surprised when we go into lockdown mk2 maybe let's try this time

and the concept of an antibody test meaning you go back to work is comical. you're still be able to carry it from place to place, you just won't be incubating it - it'll still happily stick to your clothes and move from surface to surface

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



namesake posted:

China only started reporting asymptomatic positives yesterday
...where are you getting this idea from? the asymptomatic rates come from chinese data and match up to italy based off of testing. who is telling you they only started reporting asymptomatic positives yesterday? or is it some misdirection in that they've started explicitly listing them separately from positive cases publicly? i'd be impressed if they can tell asymptomatic from pre-symptomatic (or minorly symptomatic) immediately - so would this have the same lag time as recovered patients?

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



it's interesting to watch the US try and rediscover the wheel that is the lifecycle of covid-19
https://twitter.com/andishehnouraee/status/1245513642319151110?s=19
https://twitter.com/llborio/status/1245667382808412161
https://twitter.com/RomanMDoll/status/1245710062120828928
but it goes give more resources to point at for 7/14 days being nowhere near good enough for isolation and the lockdown plan needing extended

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



goddamnedtwisto posted:

That's interesting, I thought detectable antibodies by definition meant that you were safe from passing it on because for antibodies to be just hanging around meant that there were no more - or very few - viruses left for the antibodies to kill. Is this a common thing for viruses, or is it something unique to this one? Do they know why/how this happens?
i'm no biologist i just pass along their findings that seem reasonable. as far as i understand it though the antibody response is the start of your body fighting the virus it can find and it takes time until there's sufficient antibodies to overcome the replicating virus. whether you are infectious while all of these swabs return positive unclear, but given everything we've heard a few days after you feel better is the minimum cutoff

boris is still sick 6 days in, but 7 days is fine for a regular person to go back to work

Collateral posted:

Weren't they crowing about this at the weekend? Was the increase from Sunday to Monday not significant enough for him.
it's been a 15%/day increase https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eTKeK9vRxgw0KhvKxPCaDrfaHnxQP-n9TsLzsEymviY/htmlview#gid=0
but let's be real that's because our testing is abysmal which is why the mortality rate looks insane as well, we're just hitting hospital capacity so boris needs to ramp up testing or will need to explain the mortality spike outwith every other country

Wiggly Wayne DDS fucked around with this message at 15:41 on Apr 2, 2020

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



well it turns out our hopes of it going away in summer aren't happening, so it must not like cold damp places right? so we're immune!

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



for some reason hancock is also doing today's briefing soon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Auq9mYxFEE

i hope he's not there in person

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



ThomasPaine posted:

Even with an imperfect lockdown, it is absolutely not going to take 9 months to get the numbers under control well enough to relax the lockdown.

There may be further waves after that demanding restrictions are reintroduced, but we're not going to be fully housebound until 2021 and it's absurd to think we will be.

Yes, consider this a :toxx:
well consider we haven't infected 1% of the population yet and when the lockdown is lifted the virus will resurface given how resilient it is. we're in wave 1 and the politicians don't want to engage with the scientific community on how viruses don't care about half measures at eradicating them

wuhan is looking at a 3 month absolute lockdown, and that's with widespread testing and a far more comprehensive understanding of essential worker. the virus is still spreading in the uk, we've just slowed it down significantly

goddamnedtwisto posted:

I think we'll probably end up playing peekaboo with the disease like that article suggested (and I roundly rubbished) a couple of weeks ago. Wait for deaths to drop below a certain level, unlock, then lock back up when the numbers start going up again, or maybe the same but with ICU bed occupancy. It's a long loving way from ideal (and the one area where I sort of agree with the nudge unit people - the observance of each successive lockdown is going to get worse and worse) but absent a viable treatment or vaccine it's about the only way even vaguely acceptable to the NUMBER crowd who still are basically in control of the response across the West.
yeah that was the most realistic plan put forward but no one wants to tell the public that's how it'll actually play out

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



if you want to know what's actually happening in the uk watch today's scotland briefing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yyecq4przIE

it gets into technical questions and follows alongside uk's plan but as per usual gives far more facts than the uk one

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



goddamnedtwisto posted:

This seems a fairly big claim IMO. If we take the poll in the last thread as a survey of how many people read/post in this thread, there's been at least 5 symptomatic cases out of 375*. Leyton Orient have had 4 confirmed cases in their staff of 50ish, and they definitely don't have the exotic lifestyle excuse of Premiership clubs (their youth team take the Central Line between their training ground and academy). Assuming the 33% growth a day number is right, it only takes 33 days to go from 100 cases to 690,000 (near as dammit 1%) - given we had the first confirmed cases at the beginning of February, I suspect we've gone *way* past that number now, probably nearer 10% than 1%.

Unscientific as poo poo, I know, but probably still more statistically valid than our alleged testing regime.

* Of a population that's already pretty socially isolated, arf arf.
but we already have reliable hospitalisation and death stats based off of china, south korea and italy. the notion that we're undercounting by 10x-20x is a pipedream relying on a substantial number of asymptomatic cases that global medical evidence does not show. it was pushed by england's cmo to try and buy time - it does not have any scientific basis

everyone keeps wishing it's the case, but that hasn't changed reality and i strongly doubt it'll change it if we continuing wishing even harder

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



Sad Panda posted:

Well no. They don't. Also the small issue that if these are millions of tests run from home then you'll get people claiming that they're just fine and passed it despite not having done so.
i wouldn't worry about that in the immediate future. the government said last week they wanted commercial kits being able to be bought by the public start of this week and it never happened

instead there's a small update that i don't think the media have noticed yet: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/guidance-on-coronavirus-covid-19-tests-and-testing-kits

quote:

Advice for manufacturers
MHRA is no longer accepting applications to place test kits on the market.

Send enquiries to covidtestingtriage@dhsc.gov.uk.

We are developing specifications for coronavirus (COVID-19) tests and will make these available as soon as possible.
given what was said in last night's briefing about a test kit missing 3 out of 4 positive cases i gather they were flooded with scams/profiteering so they're having to rediscover that the free market isn't about effectiveness or efficiency

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



yeah as death reporting turns to what the certificate mentioned to account for supposed cases vs absolutely confirmed it'll be "x died with covid" or "x died with presumed covid" based off of the medical professional's opinion

scotland's switching to reporting deaths from certificates from next week so presumably the rest of the uk will as well. that'll increase the accuracy of figures as well as they can't go "well they were never confirmed so let's not count that one"

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Friday he was remaining in isolation with mild symptoms of the coronavirus, including a high temperature, seven days after he first tested positive.

“Although I’m feeling better and I’ve done my seven days of isolation, alas I still have one of the symptoms, a minor symptom, I still have a temperature,” Johnson said in a video message posted on Twitter.

“So in accordance with government advice I must continue my self isolation until that symptom itself goes,” Johnson said.

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



they also used the wrong schedule from what i read yesterday, impressive fuckup throughout really

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



there's an interesting document that appeared on scotgov: Guidance from the Chief Medical Officer (CMO) on treating patients with COVID-19.

i'll quote the work safe relevant parts for how the uk is handling this in a clinical setting on paper:

quote:

6.3 Removal from Isolation
Patients may be considered for removal from isolation if:
- Patient has already been at home or in isolation for 7 days since onset of symptoms.
- Patient has been afebrile for 48 hours
- Patients symptoms are resolving or resolved (excluding cough)
- Patient has had two negative COVID-19 PCR combined throat/nose swab results 24 hours apart with the first repeat sample at least 7 days after the first positive test.

quote:

Patients admitted to hospital where COVID-19 is suspected should have throat and nose swabs sent for PCR testing. The throat is swabbed first and then the nose. Swabs must be either the Virocult or Copan swabs for virology testing. Note that false negatives can occur with the PCR test, if swabs have been inappropriately or poorly taken. A video of how to obtain throat/nose swabs can be viewed here.

If there is a high clinical suspicion of COVID-19, and negative initial tests, repeat sampling is required. Deep respiratory samples (sputum/tracheal aspirate) have a higher sensitivity than nose/throat swabs, so if a patient has a productive cough then sputum should also be sent for COVID-19 testing. Under no circumstances should an induced sputum be performed.

All repeat tests should be discussed with virology and should be done at 48 hours post initial swab. If patients have convincing clinical features of COVID-19, but throat/nose swabs have tested negative by PCR, then it is appropriate to repeat the throat/nose swabs and re-test. Advice from virology and infectious diseases may be useful at this stage.

quote:

If clinical assessment suggests the person has an increased degree of frailty (a CFS score of 5 or more), there is good evidence regarding the expected benefit of critical care organ support. In particular, studies from China, Italy and the UK suggest that people over the age of 70 who are admitted to ICU have a very high (greater than 70%) rate of death. This risk increases with advancing age. Significant cardiovascular, respiratory or other comorbidities confer an even higher likelihood of death, even with intensive care support. To ensure the optimal use of ICU resource, and that patients are not subjected to futile interventions of no benefit, a realistic assessment of outcomes for different treatment options must be communicated to patients, their families or carers in order to facilitate shared decision-making. Decision support tools (where available) may be useful to inform both patients and clinicians.

quote:

7.4 Non-invasive ventilatory support
All forms of non-invasive ventilatory support are aerosol generating procedures and should only be carried out in an appropriate clinical area by trained staff wearing appropriate PPE.

7.4.1 Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP)
There is increasing evidence that there may be a role for CPAP in either preventing or delaying the need for mechanical ventilation in patients with respiratory failure due to COVID 19 infection. Use of CPAP must be under the direction of senior critical care or respiratory medicine clinicians.

7.4.2 High Flow Nasal Oxygen (HFNO)
HFNO is not currently recommended in COVID-19 patients based of lack on efficacy, risk to staff from aerosol generation and high oxygen consumption.

7.4.3 Non-invasive Ventilation (NIV)
Non-invasive ventilation or BiPAP is not recommended for use in COVID-19 outwith standard indications i.e. acute on chronic hypercapnic respiratory failure.

quote:

NSAIDs should be used with caution in patients who may have COVID-19, however if the patient is in the last days of life their use may be appropriate.

there's also this visual guide: https://www.gov.scot/binaries/conte...pril%2B2020.pdf
i haven't seen a similar visual on clinical features elsewhere so can't judge but hey they're the professionals so it has to be based on some data

the scotland briefing was a few hours ago and had some gems in it as well: https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1BRJjQWvEmjGw
- the 100k pledge was brought up. in nhs scotland there's currently 1900 tests/day capacity which will rise to 3500/day by the end of the month. there's testing done outside of there and the topic kept being turned around to the uk aiming for 25k for end of the month if we're comparing on the same basis - the 100k figure is including outside nhs capacity which all 4 bodies are working on
- there were 200k vulnerable people to be lettered, but that's now revised to 120k after de-duplication, letters are out to 110k of them now
- some schools will be kept open over the holiday for key workers children
- on peak being "in a week" - political side: extreme emphasis that there is no data to show that, do not listen to the media on this as there's a false expectation being made, everyone wants this to be over soon but we don't have anything to show that will be the case
- cmo was even clearer: we don't have the data to support that. we may have data over the next 2-3 weeks to get an idea, but current shift is from mathematical models to real-world data in changing how to inform strategy that is locally relevant. now is not the time to think this will be over soon - we have always said many months will be needed to get on top. issue is the virus resurfacing if we relax and the public become less stringent on measures. mention of other countries doing this and being hit with a worse peak than wave 1.

so if you want to hear about what SAGE are actually telling every CMO before it gets political filters look at the scotland briefing imo. there may be some similarity in what i've been saying that their advice

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



Isomermaid posted:

Wait what.

So they won't let people out until they've tested negative twice but all the people (like me) that haven't been hospitalised but had it anyway get to be out there going off timings and maybe coming out of isolation too early. This is crazy. This is why they need to be getting tests out to people who think they've had it. Cos I'm more or less not setting foot outside the house till June but a lot of people don't have any choice
yeah that's always been the medical opinion, which is why the 7 day rule has been political bullshit from the get-go. i get an excuse to pull out this singapore example:

note there's still people showing 2 negatives then returning positive - virus lives in the lower respiratory system but PCR is a test of the upper so it isn't perfect

just wait until we need to example the issue with antibody testing irl

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



goddamnedtwisto posted:

Whatever the Chinese equivalent of :nsa: is, it appears on a copy of this slide somewhere in the 3rd Department.
eh i'd put it down to incompetence, a mildly competent job wouldn't raise an eyebrow compared to claiming AES 256, but doing 128 ECB in practice. the regions the servers are physically located is p irrelevant beyond legal jurisdiction/clickbait. end of the day you should always be adapting your communication based on how much you can trust a medium, not the party on the other end.

there's been a lot of leaping at zoom for what are p typical fuckups for companies as everyone's bored this pandemic with a lack of distracting news and it suddenly got popular, but there hasn't been anything especially egregious popping up so far. this'll be the next p typical fuckup that hits the newscycle if anyone bothers digging as everyone who tries to be clever with low latency voip falls in the trap:
https://twitter.com/colmmacc/status/1246160773379796994
for those who aren't familiar if you send voice packets with a variable length and no padding/timing element to them then a person on the line can just figure out the syllables you were speaking and reconstruct the words. encryption on them is irrelevant unless its padded to a fixed size - the metadata of size and time can show enough information to reconstruct

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



goddamnedtwisto posted:

The servers supplying/holding the keys being located in China is a monumental fuckup. In fact it's not even a fuckup, it's way beyond the reach of Hanlon's Razor - there's literally no way that PLA don't have complete access to everything on that server. It's almost certain that's the actual reason that they're even there, because it's extremely unlikely PLA would actually allow a Chinese company to develop a comms method without giving them access. At the very least you'd expect Zoom to have said "Hey, why don't we just host this in the same place as the rest of our servers" and, you know, actually expected a solid technical reason why not (which I certainly can't think of).
you're conflating physical location with security. the key management is poo poo, but you're missing the actual issue because some country names appeared. i don't want to ruin your day by telling you that nothing is stopping the PLA running their servers in the USA. it's reliance on country borders on the internet that leave these blindspots available, even if the servers were only in the USA that's still a massive issue as they shouldn't be involved in key negotiation at all

quote:

I'd be extremely leary of using Zoom even for company-confidential communications in a situation like that, that we had an actual Cabinet meeting using it (when approved teleconferencing applications, okay all the way up to TOP SECRET and beyond, exist and would certainly be available to the loving Prime Minister) is completely inexcusable.
i didn't say this as a joke:

Wiggly Wayne DDS posted:

end of the day you should always be adapting your communication based on how much you can trust a medium, not the party on the other end.
for the same reason i wouldn't pm you any confidential information on sa that i'd handover in person i wouldn't put it over zoom. that doesn't mean you can't use those mediums at all, it's about knowing to limit what you share. you should know this as well so why are you wasting your time trying this argument?

for making me waste my time on this have a check at an in-progress pre-print by cmmid: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/control-measures/uk-scenario-modelling.html
e:

Endjinneer posted:

Some poor intern graphic designer got the job of updating the graph and decided this was their big break.
oh don't worry it's all automated now:
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1245468712003612674
e2: for anyone curious about excess deaths... https://www.euromomo.eu

Wiggly Wayne DDS fucked around with this message at 01:45 on Apr 4, 2020

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



there's more bottlenecks than oxygen - any muscle relaxant for intubation for the coveted ventilators is being ignored

then there's the unanswered personnel problem, next year is going to be rough, next few weeks will be even more of an eye-opener, and we'll act as if we could never foresee this situation at all

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



scotland's cmo already warned about non-essential travel
https://twitter.com/policescotland/status/1246770834154405888

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



Endjinneer posted:

When this outbreak broke there was a lot of talk about how many Extra Corporeal Membrane Oygenators China had, like half a dozen on each coronavirus ward.
Then it all went quiet about ECMOs. Probably because it turns out that Britain only has 30, and unlike ventilators there's no chance of James Dyson bodging one together in his shed over the weekend.
I wonder if they'll find one for Boris when his lungs fill up?
britain had ~5 in england last i looked, and as far as effectiveness i've only aware of 3 people having ECMO tried on them. the theory was it'd be extremely effective but all of them died, that doesn't mean it can't be effective but it's not a miracle cure-all anyway

and the average time for first symptom->complication requiring hospitalisation is 10 days, so boris is on track there. for anyone keeping track at home death is 22d after first symptom, but i doubt we're on that timeline (and there's significant variance there ofc)

there's really no reason for him to be in the hospital 'for tests' unless it was medically required, from a PR and healthcare standpoint

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



Red Oktober posted:

I haven't seen it online, but I'm sure the BBC TV news has just announced that Calderwood has resigned. But now they're showing the Queen, so who knows.

99% sure I didn't just imagine that.

Probably for the best, it's too easy a target for people to point to when they don't want to stay the gently caress indoors.
yeah that happened
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1246906980628905988
best option really

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



Communist Thoughts posted:

Sitting up and positively responding.
Aka propped up so he can breath and still responding to stimulus lol
yeah i think they realised how "positively responding to staff" sounded to anyone and dropped it fast. now it's focus on him sitting up-right and keep repeating that he wasn't on a ventilator when you last saw him in the commons

Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



lmao so nhs england's guidance got posted earlier today: Guidance for stepdown of infection control precautions and discharging COVID-19 patients

quote:

2. Stopping of COVID-19 isolation and IPC measures if patient staying in hospital
After 14 days following a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, IPC measures for hospitalised COVID-19 patients can be stopped if there is:
  • clinical improvement with at least some respiratory recovery
  • absence of fever (> 37.8°C) for 48 hours
  • no underlying severe immunosuppression
If testing for viral clearance is available, it should focus on:
  • the severely immunocompromised patients to support the optimal use of side rooms, or where side rooms are not available
  • any testing that optimises patient flow through the hospital, such as:

  • long-stay patients who are unable to otherwise be discharged
  • those being discharged to a household where an extremely vulnerable person is being shielded

3. Discharge of patients to own home
This can be done when the patient’s clinical status is appropriate for discharge, for example, once assessed to have stable or recovering respiratory function, and any ongoing care needs can be met at home. They should be given clear safety-netting advice for what to do if their symptoms worsen.

Discharged patients should follow the Stay at Home guidance for households with COVID-19 patients:
  • if they required critical care or they are severely immunocompromised, they should complete their self-isolation until 14 days from their first positive test
  • patients who did not require critical care and are not immunosuppressed should complete their self-isolation until 7 days from their first positive test
For all discharged patients, self-isolation at home should continue until their fever has resolved for 48 hours consecutively without medication to reduce their fever (unless otherwise instructed by their acute care provider – for example, another reason for persistent fever exists).

Cough may persist in some individuals, and persistent cough is not an indication of ongoing infection when other symptoms have resolved.
compare that to the nhs scotland advice i posted last week: Guidance from the Chief Medical Officer (CMO) on treating patients with COVID-19.

quote:

6.3 Removal from Isolation
Patients may be considered for removal from isolation if:
- Patient has already been at home or in isolation for 7 days since onset of symptoms.
- Patient has been afebrile for 48 hours
- Patients symptoms are resolving or resolved (excluding cough)
- Patient has had two negative COVID-19 PCR combined throat/nose swab results 24 hours apart with the first repeat sample at least 7 days after the first positive test.

quote:

If there is a high clinical suspicion of COVID-19, and negative initial tests, repeat sampling is required. Deep respiratory samples (sputum/tracheal aspirate) have a higher sensitivity than nose/throat swabs, so if a patient has a productive cough then sputum should also be sent for COVID-19 testing. Under no circumstances should an induced sputum be performed.
can anyone spot the difference???

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Wiggly Wayne DDS
Sep 11, 2010



BizarroAzrael posted:

Propose the thread title become "Weekend at Bojo's"

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