April Current Events: "I just dont trust anything the white house says"

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > April Current Events: "I just dont trust anything the white house says"

brains: May 12, 2004

Loden Taylor posted:

I am a Knower of 4 corner simultaneous Cross-Domain Escalation that occur within a single 21st Century Air Force Nuclear Deterrence and Escalation.

circling the drain, but as a National Defense Strategy

# ¿ Apr 1, 2020 20:04

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ May 17, 2024 13:50

brains: May 12, 2004

Handsome Ralph posted:

https://twitter.com/dave_brown24/status/1247198856523198464

This is wilddddd.

Tag yourselves, I'm the sailor yelling "WHAT THE gently caress?" when Modly calls Crozier stupid.

and here i thought the USN was renowned for its damage control

# ¿ Apr 6, 2020 18:31

brains: May 12, 2004

Midjack posted:

R0 is the expected number of cases that can result from a single case when everyone is vulnerable. This means that every sick person gets six other people sick according to this analysis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

5.7 is a crazy high R0.

EDIT: Note that the wikipedia article gives the R0 of COVID-19 as lower than 5.7.

Mr. Nice! posted:

R0 refers to how many people an infected person subsequently infects. Models were built on an r0 of 2.5 or so, that is that someone infects on average 2 and a half people. Turns out that's less than half the actual observed r0, so this thing is actually infecting a lot more people than we expected. That means that for herd immunity, vaccination, etc. our models way undershot and it's going to be worse/take longer than previously expected.

ASAPI posted:

NOT a doctor.

My understanding is that the rate of infection is now believed to be 5.7. As in ONE infected person will infect 5.7 people. Previously agencies have said that the number was more like 2. A number of 2 drove them to do social distancing, close "non-essential" places, etc.

5.7 means China lifting the lock down on Wuhan is VERY bad.

for the most part this is correct but there is a very important distinction to be made: this is the supposed r0 with no mitigation. what that means is that yes, with one person infected, in a business-as-normal environment, the odds are likely they will infect 5.7 other people. but this is not accurate, since social distancing, shelter-in-place, enforced curfews, contact tracing, and a host of other mitigation efforts are in place, and each one is designed to incrementally reduce the effective r0 value.

there is also the (worldwide) problem with quality of data sets. a lot of cases are under-reported, testing varies wildly, quality of testing, etc, so these studies are struggling for lack of reliable data.

no matter what, the r0 value shows that lifting the lockdown is a pipedream for the foreseeable future. it also dramatically raises the requirements for herd immunity (up to 82% of total population, if accurate).

# ¿ Apr 8, 2020 22:57

brains: May 12, 2004

My Spirit Otter posted:

so he actually got injured or is it a "he scrape his knee running from the round that landed 2km away" thing?

please don't do this. yes, i know it was/is a thing, but it's also a hell of a slippery slope, and you can't really know what people actually went through unless you were there. i think we can all agree that awards don't always match what really happened, one way or the other.

instead, just accept that award conditions have no correlation with being a complete dumbass before/after the fact. contemporary history is littered with examples.

# ¿ Apr 16, 2020 21:54

brains: May 12, 2004

Eej posted:

https://twitter.com/NEJM/status/1251571193984847874

lmao at hospitals having to do Fast & Furious style heists to get their PPEs to their destination before the feds catch them and detain them

this reads like an account of some prohibition-era bootleggers.

# ¿ Apr 19, 2020 05:00

brains: May 12, 2004

facialimpediment posted:

Con: this will likely stunt the development of renewable/clean energy technologies for the near/medium term

Pro: lol

https://twitter.com/business/status/1252282516154744834?s=19

Edit: it just hit $4 and apparently China is reporting $3/barrel. I WILL DO ANYTHING TO SELL THIS BARREL OF CRUDE

dying for no oil profits

# ¿ Apr 20, 2020 18:51

brains: May 12, 2004

facialimpediment posted:

IT'S GOIN NEGATIVE Y'ALL

https://twitter.com/business/status/1252293838795878400

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1252293933935349761

https://twitter.com/DavidLawler10/status/1252286236057878529

pump it straight into my veins (for a fee)

# ¿ Apr 20, 2020 19:06

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ¿ May 17, 2024 13:50

brains: May 12, 2004

Woofer posted:

Oh my god are they running with we need to inject ourselves with sunshine and the president meant sunshine when he said disinfectant

I think I just crack pinged

i think we can all agree a little canned sunshine would cure everything

# ¿ Apr 24, 2020 18:43

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Internet VFW > April Current Events: "I just dont trust anything the white house says"