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Totally fair. I very well just may end up winging it. In a normal redraft league I don't try and plan things out generally so this is the first time I've tried to put more effort into it. And I only just found out I had pick 7 a day ago. Edit: I think my thought process can be simplified by saying I will likely try and get 2 rb's in the first 3 rounds and I likely will feel like there's more value at WR at #7. After that you're probably correct and it'll all be a crap shoot Artonos fucked around with this message at 16:32 on Jun 3, 2020 |
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Jun 3, 2020 16:27
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Artonos posted:Totally fair. I very well just may end up winging it. In a normal redraft league I don't try and plan things out generally so this is the first time I've tried to put more effort into it. And I only just found out I had pick 7 a day ago. 7 is honestly not a bad place to be. You're looking at one of the best draft positions this year. Round 1 - Cook/Adams/Jacobs/Mixon/Hill, Round 2 - Chubb/Jones/Godwin/Sanders, Round 3 - Bell/Kupp/Drake/Singletary/Conner are the possibilities you're looking at.
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Jun 3, 2020 16:43
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Just be careful of swinging too far towards either not caring about age (going too redraft) or caring too much (spending multiple early start up picks on rookies, or putting any weight on age when deciding between two WRs that are 24 and 25). If you go all old vets now, you’ll get some good production, but things change fast and you can’t really recoup value once a player’s decline looks age related, or they suffer serious injury and are 30ish. AJ Green and TY Hilton aren’t returning more than a mid 2nd per MFL adp right now, so while it’s a good opportunity to buy for sure, it highlights how it can be risky to assume you can repair an aged roster easily. If you realize your roster isn’t competitive, where’s your rebuilding value going to come from, no one’s buying your older dudes. On the other hand, you could sell your boring late 20s studs every year for shiny early 1sts, and walk away with a roster full of Laquon Treadwell, Kevin White, and Corey Davis, so uh, don’t do that. Almost certainly 2 or 3 of the big top 5 rookie RBs this season will bust. Guice, Penny, Michel, Rojo, Kerryon Johnson, and Royce Freeman were part of a pretty solid RB class, better hope your guy this year is the Saquon or Chubb. As long as they don’t totally fall on their face (like JJAW this year), rookies still do hold value through disappointment, though, you just have to be willing to get out after a year or two instead of assuming every young player will monotonically improve in production year to year.
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Jun 3, 2020 17:01
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I realize this is dependent on a lot of variables, but when should you start to really look at drafting rookies that aren't slam dunks (ie Saquon a couple years ago)? Or should just treat them the same as any mid round pick?
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Jun 3, 2020 19:11
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okay this has to be crazy. My dynasty draft is coming up and the commish wants to have TEN rounds. To be clear, this is rookies and free agents not on rosters. Ten team league, we have 30 person rosters. I mean we have IDPs but still. That's 100 players not on roster.
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Jun 3, 2020 19:26
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Man yall out here having dynasty league drafts now and the 2 goon dynasty leagues I'm in don't go till august.
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Jun 3, 2020 19:35
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MakaVillian posted:I realize this is dependent on a lot of variables, but when should you start to really look at drafting rookies that aren't slam dunks (ie Saquon a couple years ago)? Or should just treat them the same as any mid round pick? That's the wrong comparison you want to use but personally I look at rookies that aren't slam dunks as lottery tickets. I'll draft them as late round fliers after my starters have been filled out. If they aren't slam dunks then they normally aren't even starting so if someone drafts them early they will probably be dropped for whoever goes off the first week. I trust my waiver wire game to get one or two as the season progresses.
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Jun 3, 2020 20:12
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jabro posted:That's the wrong comparison you want to use but personally I look at rookies that aren't slam dunks as lottery tickets. I'll draft them as late round fliers after my starters have been filled out. If they aren't slam dunks then they normally aren't even starting so if someone drafts them early they will probably be dropped for whoever goes off the first week. I trust my waiver wire game to get one or two as the season progresses. Im really not a fan of prioritizing starting lineup more than overall value. If I’ve got one RB and three WRs and Lamb or Jeudy has dropped to the 5th, I’m easily taking one of them over someone like Bell or Singletary. I do think consensus (via fantasy pros) rankings seem particularly aggressive wrt rookies this year. Reagor around Landry, David Montgomery, Deshaun Watson, and Tyler Lockett, and Ruggs around Hollywood Brown, James Conner, and Russel Wilson, are both places I’m definitely fading the rookie.
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Jun 3, 2020 21:44
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How ridiculous would the already stacked 2020 rookie class (particularly the RBs) have been if Travis Etienne, Chuba Hubbard and Najee Harris had declared? Both 2020 and 2021 WR classes are looking amazing.
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Jun 3, 2020 22:04
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sourdough posted:Im really not a fan of prioritizing starting lineup more than overall value. If I’ve got one RB and three WRs and Lamb or Jeudy has dropped to the 5th, I’m easily taking one of them over someone like Bell or Singletary. I do think consensus (via fantasy pros) rankings seem particularly aggressive wrt rookies this year. Reagor around Landry, David Montgomery, Deshaun Watson, and Tyler Lockett, and Ruggs around Hollywood Brown, James Conner, and Russel Wilson, are both places I’m definitely fading the rookie. The question was about questionable rookies. I’m not taking a rookie who might not be starting over a QB or a TE who would be starting but would take a RB or WR before for value. Value doesn’t come into play.
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Jun 4, 2020 00:10
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jabro posted:The question was about questionable rookies. I’m not taking a rookie who might not be starting over a QB or a TE who would be starting but would take a RB or WR before for value. Value doesn’t come into play. I guess I still don’t get it. If one of the top 5 RB rookies is available, but you’ve already filled out your starting RBs and WRs and haven’t gotten a QB or TE, you would take some mid or low end QB1 or TE1 over CEH or Johnathan Taylor? edit: not trying to be a dick, just feel like I must be missing your point. Also doubt it’ll matter anyway, as I don’t think I’ve ever seen a dynasty league where rookies went much later than adp, only ones where rookie fever makes em go way too early sourdough fucked around with this message at 01:02 on Jun 4, 2020 |
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Jun 4, 2020 00:57
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Some roster cut questions/advice: It's a tiered ppr league, WR= .5, RB= .75, and TE= 1 pt. The starting lineups have 3 flex spots so position requirement isn't a huge factor. I can only keep 1 out of this list Tyler Higbee Jamaal Williams Breshad Perriman TY Hilton Anthony Miller Matt Breida Kareem Hunt I've been leaning toward Higbee. However, I already have Kelce. The extra ppr is nice and helped him to have a higher overall total than anyone else on that list and he became one of Goff's favorite targets. I'm not sure I trust the offense/scheme though. Breshad came on late and really shined at the end of the season, but I'm not sure he will replicate that next season as a Jet. Hilton battled injuries both last season and the one before making his scoring volatile, but could bounce back. Jamaal is gunna be in a crowded backfield this season, and tapered off in scoring during the back half of 2019. Breida is intriguing, but another RB in a bad spot. Kareem could be a good lottery ticket but has to compete with Chubb for touches. Finally Anthony Miller. I like his skillset but his QB situation ain't great. I know two TEs is frowned upon so I'm curious what others would do in this spot.
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Jun 5, 2020 18:54
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I would go Kareem Hunt. You mention already having Kelce, who are your other keepers?
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Jun 5, 2020 19:17
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Mahomes Kelce Fournette Mike Evans AJ Brown Devin Singletary Dionate Johnson Hollywood Brown
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Jun 5, 2020 19:50
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MacheteZombie posted:Mahomes I'd probably go Hunt, yeah. Tyler Higbee just doesn't get me all that excited and I doubt he's keeping his late-season production up when he was on pace for 165 gat dang targets
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Jun 5, 2020 20:02
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12 team PPR Dynasty league. I’ve managed to get a pretty loaded starting lineup QB: Carson Wentz RB: Dalvin Cook RB: Derrick Henry WR: Julio Jones WR: Odell Beckham FLEX: Aaron Jones FLEX: AJ Green TE: Travis Kelce The Lamar Jackson owner in our league has made his plans of rebuilding pretty clear. Obviously you would think Lamar would be part of that rebuild but the owner also just drafted Joe Burrow pretty early in our rookie draft (believe 13 overall). I have some serious doubts that Aaron Jones and Derrick Henry can do what they did last year. Would it be worth a shot to try and use one of those guys to get Lamar? For reference my RB depth kind of stinks. On my bench I have Alexander Mattison, Boston Scott, Justin Jackson, and Antonio Gibson (2nd round rookie draft pick). The rest of them aren’t even worth mentioning.
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Jun 6, 2020 19:55
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1 QB or Superflex? Lamar Jackson is super pricey right now after a historic fantasy year. Some level of TD regression is coming this season, though I still suspect he’ll be a top 5 Dynasty QB moving forward regardless. Henry and Jones are probably on new teams next year ,so it’s a good time to shop both players if you want to move on. Jones’s selling price might be a bit lower since the Packers spent a high draft pick on AJ Dillon. I think Lamar is more of a sell than a buy right now, but if you can get him for Aaron Jones or Jones + Wentz, (assuming 1QB league) I think you probably do it, but if I was a rebuilding team, I don’t think I take that deal on his end. I’d probably try and turn Henry and Jones into younger RBs + rookie picks, if you can find the right deal.
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Jun 6, 2020 22:00
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Ty1990 posted:12 team PPR Dynasty league. I’ve managed to get a pretty loaded starting lineup I’d do Jones + Wentz for Lamar. I’d also try to be moving Henry for a solid RB and WR to replace AJ Green.
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Jun 7, 2020 18:55
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Thanks for letting me post things out earlier this week. 12 team dynasty startup 0.5 ppr. 2 rb's, 3 wr, 1 te and 1 flex I ended up with: Dak Kamara Miles Sanders JuJu Tyler lockett TY Hilton Mark Ingram Hunter Henry Then a bunch of decent to good wr's that I hope one or two can hit well this year. Marvin Jones, John Brown, James Washington, Michael Gallup, Emmanuel Sanders, Tee Higgins, Mike Gesicki It's funny how I'm already super hyped for football in June after doing this draft. It can't come soon enough. Artonos fucked around with this message at 20:35 on Jun 8, 2020 |
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Jun 8, 2020 20:31
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Very good team
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Jun 9, 2020 02:56
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I found PlayerProfiler.com has a statistic called Interceptable Passes and did some spreadsheets. League average is 51.1% of interceptable passes become interceptions. Matt Ryan's was 87.5% last year, and Baker's was 72.4%. PlayerProfiler also had a "catchable passes" metric which I used to calculate uncatchable passes and figured uncatchable passes + interceptable passes were bad passes. Matt Ryan had the second-lowest bad pass rate and Baker the fourth-highest. So basically what I'm saying is go get Matt Ryan I guess, he should be due for some luck regression
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Jun 9, 2020 03:06
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Spoeank posted:I found PlayerProfiler.com has a statistic called Interceptable Passes and did some spreadsheets. League average is 51.1% of interceptable passes become interceptions. Matt Ryan's was 87.5% last year, and Baker's was 72.4%. Badass, those are good stats to have. Where was Josh Allen?
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Jun 9, 2020 03:55
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sourdough posted:Badass, those are good stats to have. Where was Josh Allen? Josh Allen had the 11th-highest bad pass rate and the eighth-highest INT conversion rate. Most people in most years fall inside 40-60% range it seems and Allen was 60% exactly though. They work really well together because guys who are throwing a lot of uncatchables and interceptables are probably throwing ducks and their "luck" isn't really luck. Top Ten bad pass rate: Jameis Winston Kyle Allen Jared Goff Baker Mayfield Mason Rudolph Sam Darnold Andy Dalton Kyler Murray Deshaun Watson Mitchell Trubisky Bottom ten... bad... pass rate? Good pass rate? Carson Wentz Matt Ryan Patrick Mahomes Ryan Tannehill Derek Carr Russell Wilson Kirk Cousins Drew Brees Jimmy Garoppolo Gardner Minshew Ten highest interception conversion rate: Matt Ryan Baker Mayfield Ryan Fitzpatrick Kyler Murray Dwayne Haskins Matthew Stafford Jameis Winston Ryan Tannehill Josh Allen Sam Darnold Ten lowest Carson Wentz Aaron Rodgers Gardner Minshew Drew Brees Patrick Mahomes Mitchell Trubisky Daniel Jones Dak Prescott Andy Dalton Lamar Jackson I figure if you're throwing a lot of bad passes and have a high INT rate you probably throw like poo poo. If you have few bad passes and a low INT rate you are probably good, and if they're mismatched that's good luck or bad luck shining through
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Jun 9, 2020 04:44
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Ty1990 posted:Very good team Thanks, I just hope my wr's can produce well enough to keep me competitive. They're really the only part I'm worried about.
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Jun 9, 2020 15:36
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Artonos posted:Thanks, I just hope my wr's can produce well enough to keep me competitive. They're really the only part I'm worried about. Your WRs have a low floor but also a high ceiling. The Steelers have realized Juju isn't Antonio Brown so is moving him back to the slot and Ben is back so balls will actually be thrown near him. Sanders is one of the most underrated WRs and being in New Orleans is a huge plus. Tyler Lockett should still get you some points even though I believe this is Metcalf's year. Ty Hilton will have a good year after a season working with Brissett if he throws like the first half of the season and not the second half.
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Jun 9, 2020 16:02
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What's the rules on linking fantasy sites? My buddy writes for a site and I was debating linking it to give it more exposure.
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Jun 9, 2020 16:25
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Brisset isn’t going to be throwing any balls, but yeah Rivers is a big upgrade for Hilton obviously, he should have a good bounce back
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Jun 9, 2020 16:27
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sourdough posted:Brisset isn’t going to be throwing any balls, but yeah Rivers is a big upgrade for Hilton obviously, he should have a good bounce back I want to believe
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Jun 9, 2020 16:31
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MacheteZombie posted:What's the rules on linking fantasy sites? My buddy writes for a site and I was debating linking it to give it more exposure. just post baby
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Jun 9, 2020 16:32
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Sounds good! https://importantnonsense.com/
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Jun 9, 2020 16:35
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sourdough posted:Brisset isn’t going to be throwing any balls, but yeah Rivers is a big upgrade for Hilton obviously, he should have a good bounce back oh yeah, I forgot about that. With their o-line Rivers should have plenty of time to throw too.
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Jun 9, 2020 16:37
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MacheteZombie posted:Sounds good! Looks good, I threw them a follow on twitter!
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Jun 9, 2020 18:32
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Hmph. I don't know about these new guys but I'll take a loo-quote:Kansas City Chiefs subscribed.
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Jun 9, 2020 18:38
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I don't know what to think of CEH if kiimo is going to start hyping him
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Jun 9, 2020 19:01
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I am purposefully not hyping him. He doesn't need me. I mean he's the next Emmitt Smith but
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Jun 9, 2020 19:04
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CEH only going in the mid-second is honestly shocking given what we did to Damien Williams last year
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Jun 9, 2020 19:09
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The Darwin Thompson train is a sad little caboose these days.
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Jun 9, 2020 19:13
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The kiimo seal of approval!Silly Burrito posted:The Darwin Thompson train is a sad little caboose these days. I'm still holding out hope... by stashing Darwin on my taxi squad Spoeank posted:I'd probably go Hunt, yeah. Tyler Higbee just doesn't get me all that excited and I doubt he's keeping his late-season production up when he was on pace for 165 gat dang targets Meant to ask this other day, but do you think the rest of my keepers are solid? I figured you'd have thrown a few suggestions if you disagreed with any.
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Jun 9, 2020 19:15
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Darwin Thompson apparently is dumb as hell and can't learn the plays, pass protect and has terrible vision from what I've read this offseason. I'll never live it down.
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Jun 9, 2020 19:16
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MacheteZombie posted:Meant to ask this other day, but do you think the rest of my keepers are solid? I figured you'd have thrown a few suggestions if you disagreed with any. Can't go wrong with Mahomes/Kelce as your one-two. If you can keep them longer I would maybe try to flip Kelce for Kittle or Andrews because Kelce is getting up there. Singletary might have some Zack Moss trouble this year but Diontae and Hollywood are good upside keepers. AJ Brown and Mike Evans are both top-fifteen WRs. I'd say you're in good shape.
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Jun 9, 2020 19:23
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