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The Alpha Centauri
Feb 15, 2019

snoo posted:

awooouuu (covid howl)

fake news post

no phlegm

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COVID-420
Apr 21, 2020

Natural cures they don't want you to know about.
it's truly incredible that capitalists managed to pin the economic collapse on the "lockdown" rather than....a worldwide plague

very few people are willing to push back against this narrative, even if they support intelligent public health measures

Mr Hootington
Jul 24, 2008
Probation
Can't post for 44 hours!
My guess is 100k dead. Trump said that would be it and that is it. :smugdon:

Mr Hootington has issued a correction as of 02:37 on May 25, 2020

mycomancy
Oct 16, 2016

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

COVID-19 MAY 2020 USA CUM DEATHS GUESSING GAME
Guess how many cumulative deaths we have on worldometer's COVID-19 report for May 31st for the USA. The closest guess gets the satisfaction of being smarter than a bunch of idiot epidemiologists. If you are dead on May 31st, you may not redeem this prize. The guessing window closes at +07:00 GMT on May 2nd.

I am absolutely loling at all these goons not understanding how exponentials work.

From March 1 to April 1 deaths doubled every 2.45 days. From April 1 to now, they doubled every 9.03 days. The difference? April saw actual attempts to contain the virus, and both the case numbers and the death count slowed.

By my calculations, if the doubling time stays what it is, by May 31 we will have 695,157 deaths. If our doubling time drops because of *waves arms gesticulating wildly* it goes up very fast.

So, here's my guess.

Doubling time: 6 days
Death count on May 31 for the United States: 2,293,629

Edit: the growth of total cases is usually pretty close to the death growth rate, March's being 2.69 days per doubling (nice) and April being 12.97.
If I'm right and the 6 days per doubling is correct we'll see ~40 million cases on May 31.

mycomancy has issued a correction as of 01:55 on May 1, 2020

kaleedity
Feb 27, 2016




:patriot:

babypolis
Nov 4, 2009

twoday posted:

Many more are dying there than in the neighboring countries, but you are repeating a rightwing talking point which is based on a fallacy, which is that one must choose either between saving the economy or opening up society. The reality is much more nuanced.

First of all, Sweden's economy, like the rest of Europe and the world, is hosed. The IMF projects that Sweden will lose 6.8% of their GDP, which is admittedly not as high as the biggest losers in Europe (Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands), where losses will be closer to 8 or 9 percent, but it's still higher than the EU average of 6.4%. Having "no lock down" hasn't saved their economy.

Second, saying they have no lockdown is not correct. The different countries have had different approaches to lockdown and have enacted different measures, and they all exist on a number of spectrums. Sweden took different measures than most places, most notably leaving restaurants and shops open. However, other countries also left shops open. However, they did ban events, and also, very importantly, locked down their nursing homes early on to defend the elderly. There are still a lot more deaths than everywhere nearby though. But also much less than places like Belgium, which did a pretty heavy lockdown.

Anyway, the choice of murdering your economy or murdering your people is a false dichotomy. Even in Sweden a lot of people have changed their habits and are hiding inside and shopping less. Young people still go to bars, sure, but it's not the same society it was 3 months ago. It didn't save their economy. This poo poo is not an on/off switch, there is nuance to every situation. By repeating these oversimplified talking points you are reinforcing the idiotic chud narrative.

thank you for the response. i am wiser now and will not repeat the chud lines anymore

Real hurthling!
Sep 11, 2001




COVID-420 posted:

it's truly incredible that capitalists managed to pin the economic collapse on the "lockdown" rather than....a worldwide plague

very few people are willing to push back against this narrative, even if they support intelligent public health measures

the lockdown happened before there were deaths in some states so they think lockdown kills.

knobgobblin
Oct 28, 2010

got a bone to pick

empty whippet box posted:

really disappointed in the low number predictions you goons are throwing up itt. 60k dead in may, that's it? loving pathetic.

150,003

kaleedity
Feb 27, 2016



BONGHITZ posted:

rat mentor?

glad the virus he was working on in secret worked out

MoaM
Dec 1, 2009

Joyous.
Waiting in my two meter apart store line for middle class retail fulfillment


Covid 19

Covid nineteeeeeeen

Bilirubin
Feb 16, 2014

The sanctioned action is to CHUG



I DO NOT LOOK LIKE A BEARDED THUMB

Also I'm going in for 202,173

Doc Fission
Sep 11, 2011



ground floor for riding into Valhalla

mastershakeman
Oct 28, 2008

by vyelkin

mycomancy posted:

I am absolutely loling at all these goons not understanding how exponentials work.

From March 1 to April 1 deaths doubled every 2.45 days. From April 1 to now, they doubled every 9.03 days. The difference? April saw actual attempts to contain the virus, and both the case numbers and the death count slowed.

By my calculations, if the doubling time stays what it is, by May 31 we will have 695,157 deaths. If our doubling time drops because of *waves arms gesticulating wildly* it goes up very fast.

So, here's my guess.

Doubling time: 6 days
Death count on May 31 for the United States: 2,293,629
Lol loving hell that's a lot

MoaM
Dec 1, 2009

Joyous.

Judakel posted:

Bring out yer dead.

twoday
May 4, 2005



C-SPAM Times best-selling author

COVID-420 posted:

it's truly incredible that capitalists managed to pin the economic collapse on the "lockdown" rather than....a worldwide plague

very few people are willing to push back against this narrative, even if they support intelligent public health measures

:hmmyes:

Their unwavering belief in a free-market philosophy has made them believe that there is only one thing that matters - how regulated the market is. There is no room in this philosophy for poo poo like this pandemic, which is upending a lot of the preconceived notions we have about everything. But not to them, because they are fixed in their beliefs and have no room for reinterpretation.

Inceltown
Aug 6, 2019

babypolis posted:

thank you for the response. i am wiser now and will not repeat the chud lines anymore

Note when they're talking about the economy they're talking about two things -- the workers and capital -- because the economy is more than just capital. By saying 'save the economy' they're saying kill workers to spare capital and not actually meaning save the economy.

mycomancy
Oct 16, 2016

mastershakeman posted:

Lol loving hell that's a lot

Exponentials are a bitch my dude.

MoaM
Dec 1, 2009

Joyous.

Trumps Baby Hands
Mar 27, 2016

Silent white light filled the world. And the righteous and unrighteous alike were consumed in that holy fire.
My pops just told me that the teevee says that only 100 people under the age of 25 had died in the US so far. That can’t possibly be true, can it?

Lpzie
Nov 20, 2006

twoday posted:

Reminder that there is a BCG trial going on right now run by Texas A&M which is looking for 1,800 volunteers

im waiting for the one about smoking.

Marx Headroom
May 10, 2007

AT LAST! A show with nonono commercials!
Fallen Rib

FistEnergy
Nov 3, 2000

DAY CREW: WORKING HARD

Fun Shoe
Ok I'll guess 690,690

Inceltown
Aug 6, 2019

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

COVID-19 MAY 2020 USA CUM DEATHS GUESSING GAME
Guess how many cumulative deaths we have on worldometer's COVID-19 report for May 31st for the USA. The closest guess gets the satisfaction of being smarter than a bunch of idiot epidemiologists. If you are dead on May 31st, you may not redeem this prize. The guessing window closes at +07:00 GMT on May 2nd.

120,021 give me that palindrome point score baby

Spoondick
Jun 9, 2000

these dudes are so hosed if they need to figure out logistics and tactics in an actual conflict instead of blasting on a bunch of unarmed parishioners or whatever

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

mycomancy posted:

I am absolutely loling at all these goons not understanding how exponentials work.

From March 1 to April 1 deaths doubled every 2.45 days. From April 1 to now, they doubled every 9.03 days. The difference? April saw actual attempts to contain the virus, and both the case numbers and the death count slowed.

By my calculations, if the doubling time stays what it is, by May 31 we will have 695,157 deaths. If our doubling time drops because of *waves arms gesticulating wildly* it goes up very fast.

So, here's my guess.

Doubling time: 6 days
Death count on May 31 for the United States: 2,293,629

:hellyeah:

Bilirubin
Feb 16, 2014

The sanctioned action is to CHUG


mycomancy posted:

I am absolutely loling at all these goons not understanding how exponentials work.

From March 1 to April 1 deaths doubled every 2.45 days. From April 1 to now, they doubled every 9.03 days. The difference? April saw actual attempts to contain the virus, and both the case numbers and the death count slowed.

By my calculations, if the doubling time stays what it is, by May 31 we will have 695,157 deaths. If our doubling time drops because of *waves arms gesticulating wildly* it goes up very fast.

So, here's my guess.

Doubling time: 6 days
Death count on May 31 for the United States: 2,293,629

$1

Steve Yun
Aug 7, 2003
I'm a parasitic landlord that needs to get a job instead of stealing worker's money. Make sure to remind me when I post.
Soiled Meat
5,537,800.8

Steve Yun has issued a correction as of 01:51 on May 1, 2020

Real hurthling!
Sep 11, 2001




twoday posted:

:hmmyes:

Their unwavering belief in a free-market philosophy has made them believe that there is only one thing that matters - how regulated the market is. There is no room in this philosophy for poo poo like this pandemic, which is upending a lot of the preconceived notions we have about everything. But not to them, because they are fixed in their beliefs and have no room for reinterpretation.

I think the wise ones only project that mantra and actually are nihilists that know there is power in loudly chanting even the incantations of false gods.

HugeGrossBurrito
Mar 20, 2018

you son of a bitch

150,004

DR FRASIER KRANG
Feb 4, 2005

"Are you forgetting that just this afternoon I was punched in the face by a turtle now dead?

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

COVID-19 MAY 2020 USA CUM DEATHS GUESSING GAME
Guess how many cumulative deaths we have on worldometer's COVID-19 report for May 31st for the USA. The closest guess gets the satisfaction of being smarter than a bunch of idiot epidemiologists. If you are dead on May 31st, you may not redeem this prize. The guessing window closes at +07:00 GMT on May 2nd.

147,263

babypolis
Nov 4, 2009

Inceltown posted:

Note when they're talking about the economy they're talking about two things -- the workers and capital -- because the economy is more than just capital. By saying 'save the economy' they're saying kill workers to spare capital and not actually meaning save the economy.

my worry is that the economic collpase will hurt a lot of people (and already is), potentially more than virus itself. but yeah its not really a situation where you can choose one over the other as pointed out before

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

we beat the invisible enemy !!

twoday
May 4, 2005



C-SPAM Times best-selling author

babypolis posted:

thank you for the response. i am wiser now and will not repeat the chud lines anymore

it's fine, we all have things to learn

also just as a general comment to everyone, I want to mention that you shouldn't fear my new mod powers in matters of discussion. Though I have the power to probe and ban people, I don't intend to use this against people who disagree with me about things. I enjoy arguing with people on the internet, and would rather do that than just silence my opponents. I am going to try to reserve my mod powers for things that keep the forum running smoothly, like probing people who are spamming and derailing a thread and annoying everyone. If you disagree with me, that's fine, go for it, live your best life.

Flavius Aetass
Mar 30, 2011
my prediction is 30330030

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

ideology is so important

lamo

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators
Current guesses:



If anyone knows any Smart Epidemiologists with predictions for May 31st please let me know

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



the virus has been defeated. thank you president trump

Shipon
Nov 7, 2005

mycomancy posted:

I am absolutely loling at all these goons not understanding how exponentials work.

From March 1 to April 1 deaths doubled every 2.45 days. From April 1 to now, they doubled every 9.03 days. The difference? April saw actual attempts to contain the virus, and both the case numbers and the death count slowed.

By my calculations, if the doubling time stays what it is, by May 31 we will have 695,157 deaths. If our doubling time drops because of *waves arms gesticulating wildly* it goes up very fast.

So, here's my guess.

Doubling time: 6 days
Death count on May 31 for the United States: 2,293,629

infection rates don't follow exponential curves, they follow logistic curves which only appear exponential in the initial phases before they hit an inflection point. i suspect they'll re open things but people are overall scared more than before so infections will increase, but not by as much as before because people will be doing basic things like wearing masks (even if not everyone does) and staying further apart and not going to big events. my guess is we'll hit 140,000 dead by end of may.

KaptainKrunk
Feb 6, 2006


120k confirmed deaths with the real number being around 150k seems about right to me. we've yet to peak case wise nationally, deaths lag, and reopening will certainly bump things up a bit so I would say we stick at our 30k a day plateau and 2k~ deaths per day throughout all of may.

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twoday
May 4, 2005



C-SPAM Times best-selling author

Lpzie posted:

im waiting for the one about smoking.

the french government severely limited the sales of nicotine patches and gum after they announced that they were starting that nicotine patch trial. The main reaction to this which I read was that they were trying to stop people from self-medicating before the results are published. But I also think it could be:

1) they are stockpiling it for medical use because they think it could work, just in case
2) they don't want smokers to quit right now, just in case

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