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Guess how many cumulative deaths we have on worldometer's COVID-19 report for May 31st for the USA. The closest guess gets the satisfaction of being smarter than a bunch of idiot epidemiologists. If you are dead on May 31st, you may not redeem this prize. The guessing window closes at +07:00 GMT on May 2nd. ==================== Thank you to everyone that guessed, especially those hoping for resurrection or megadeath, your voices matter too. Here is a link to the guess spreadsheet. There are 215 guesses in total which I have run through the C-SPAM University Model to yield the following estimates: - 169421 expected deaths (median). - 153842 to 185599 deaths (95% Bootstrap Confidence Interval of the median). I will consider CUM a success if deaths fall within this range. Here are the deaths:  C-SPAM University Model vs Epidemiologists:  C-SPAM vs C-SPAM       Worldometer resets a bit after 00:00 GMT every day, and I will try to keep daily updates rolling. Notorious R.I.M. has issued a correction as of 02:27 on May 27, 2020 |
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May 1, 2020 01:00
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| # ¿ May 15, 2024 01:50 |
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Grizzled Patriarch posted:that fresh thread smell Congratulation, you do not (yet) have coronavirus.
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May 1, 2020 01:05
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babypolis posted:so whats the deal with sweden? honestly the numbers from over there dont seem that bad considering they arent murdering their own economy like everyone else According to the Imperial College forecasting they have R(t) sitting right near 1 at the moment. So they have slid down to it rather than suppressing R(t) below 1 then loosening things up until R(t) is near 1.
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May 1, 2020 01:17
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babypolis posted:what does this mean It means they'll probably keep seeing the same number of people get infected and die for a while
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May 1, 2020 01:20
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mycomancy posted:I am absolutely loling at all these goons not understanding how exponentials work. 
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May 1, 2020 01:47
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Current guesses: If anyone knows any Smart Epidemiologists with predictions for May 31st please let me know
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May 1, 2020 01:51
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MoaM posted:Give me 200089 if we aren't doing duplicate entries. This is CSPAM you can do whatever your heart tells you to (updated to 200089)
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May 1, 2020 02:11
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keep em cumin
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May 1, 2020 02:54
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MadJackal posted:I'm still alive! I'm glad to hear the end of your first round was the peak. Things sounded like they were truly going off the rails on the last few days.
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May 1, 2020 03:02
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Schnorkles posted:as of right now the two biggest unknowns right now are what the acceleration effect of the re-opening measures are and (likely inversely related) what the political response to the economy remaining an absolute dumpster fire when the republicans all proclaim that they're open for business tomorrow. you better pick a number, plane.
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May 1, 2020 03:11
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Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:I mean... that curve seems to be going up and up I'll pencil you in for 0 USD
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May 1, 2020 03:13
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Harry Potter on Ice posted:I misread I thought it was for the month, mine is 103k if you dont mind. Updated quote:Can we buy multiple entries 
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May 1, 2020 03:42
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euphronius posted:revising upwards to 12 What are you, the IHME?
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May 1, 2020 03:57
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https://twitter.com/DavidBegnaud/status/1256054964503396352
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May 1, 2020 04:10
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motedek posted:
Where's that model from
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May 1, 2020 04:12
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At 101 entries the median guess is now 169420. The wisdom of the crowd is good folks.
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May 1, 2020 05:01
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Current guesses
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May 1, 2020 05:16
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Siljmonster posted:Lord please hear my prayers and smite me please I am a horrible sinner a shameful smite
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May 1, 2020 05:56
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Man Musk posted:Maths question: We’re already well past Mardi Gras where 2% of all participants succumbed to the roni. Is that 2% figure cumulative, i.e. if you visit the beach 98 times this season will you catch the roni? If you have a 98% chance of not catching covid each time you go to the beach and you go 100 times your chance of not getting infected is 0.98^100 = 13%.
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May 1, 2020 06:34
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can't wait for all the virus related word problems in the next generation of algebra textbooks
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May 1, 2020 06:37
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Cumulative deaths by May 31st guesses: 1-76:  77-147:  The median guess is, once again, 169420. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/305906786408480770 I will collect more guesses tomorrow. There's still until 07:00 GMT May 2nd to guess. Notorious R.I.M. has issued a correction as of 08:50 on May 1, 2020 |
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May 1, 2020 08:36
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Charlz Guybon posted:But taking out the 3 highest guesses, and the lowest 8, which are impossible, what is the mean answer? I'll post the full sheet tomorrow when everything is done so you can do whatever basic statistics or advanced machine learning you want on it, but it's important to remember that all guesses are beautiful, even those that require resurrection and/or repeated death. Notorious R.I.M. has issued a correction as of 09:00 on May 1, 2020 |
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May 1, 2020 08:58
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At 197 guesses the median is... 169420 1-70:  71-140:  141-197: 
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May 1, 2020 18:46
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EIDE Van Hagar posted:Put me down for the lower of two mersenne primes found by pietro gitaldi in 1588: 131071?
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May 1, 2020 20:28
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:a somehow worse version of gently caress you got mine gently caress, you got mine
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May 1, 2020 20:50
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Dumb Lowtax posted:ya missed one! I have fixed this egregious error. I personally think you are most likely to win.
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May 1, 2020 21:11
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EIDE Van Hagar posted:yes, fixed it, I am a dipshit. we're all dipshits here in Basic D&D 
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May 1, 2020 21:18
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six weeks jfc
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May 1, 2020 23:18
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snoo posted:Cum
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May 2, 2020 01:31
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So can any smart doctors tell me if IL-6 inhibitors have any nasty side effects or if they aren't actually that effective for stopping the covid cytokine storm? I'm real tempted to gamble on them given that there are trial results coming out this month and next.
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May 2, 2020 04:03
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:COVID-19 MAY 2020 USA CUM DEATHS GUESSING GAME 2 hours to go. 209 guesses. The median has shifted to 169420.5!
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May 2, 2020 06:12
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MadJackal posted:Yes, take your hand, the most likely vector to get you sick, and stick it directly under your mask so you can hotbox COVID. A small price to pay to comply with our surveillance systems.
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May 2, 2020 07:43
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I hope masks become standard fashion because it is a giant gently caress you to our surveillance state. If you work in computer vision you're a cop.
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May 2, 2020 07:45
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Woofer posted:It sure does make unlocking my iPhone inconvenient though Just get your face on a mask https://twitter.com/djbaskin/status/1256302392611500032
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May 2, 2020 07:56
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Thank you to all 212 people that guessed. I will put everything up tomorrow with an analysis that will make Schnorkles proud. Someone guessed 100 million but I didn't put their name down for some reason so a mystery person will probably win. Data entry is hard.
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May 2, 2020 08:02
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shovelbum posted:are ~ASIAN~ hornet scare articles a china war consent manufacturing thing These hornets loving suck and are a major pest so consider my consent manufactured.
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May 2, 2020 19:12
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:COVID-19 MAY 2020 USA CUM DEATHS GUESSING GAME Thank you to everyone that guessed, especially those hoping for resurrection or megadeath, your voices matter too. There are 215 guesses in total, the median guess is 169421. As of April 30th, there were 63856 deaths. Here are all of the guesses (and here is a link to the guess spreadsheet):  Worldometer resets a bit after 00:00 GMT every day, and I will try to keep daily updates rolling.
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May 3, 2020 01:14
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Doc Fission posted:drat did I miss the guessing window. Still excited tho You're at spot 133 with 200069
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May 3, 2020 01:25
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The REAL Goobusters posted:seems like my entire social media feed of irl friends has stopped giving a gently caress and they’re all going out without masks to beaches and parks. Feel like I’m going insane. gently caress it I'm expecting a lot more of this as people exhaust their vigilance
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May 3, 2020 01:43
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| # ¿ May 15, 2024 01:50 |
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I've also added some professional models to the guessing pool. If I figure out a good way to make lower and upper bounds for the C-SPAM guesses I'll add them in (but I may have to discard some outliers). Overall our median guess of 169421 is the second highest in this list. We'll see who is right, idiot epidemiologists or enlightened C-SPAM.
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May 3, 2020 02:04
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