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Who will you vote for in 2020? This poll is closed. |
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| Biden |
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425 | 18.06% |
| Trump |
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105 | 4.46% |
| whoever the Green Party runs |
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307 | 13.05% |
| GOOGLE RON PAUL |
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151 | 6.42% |
| Bernie Sanders |
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346 | 14.70% |
| Stalin |
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246 | 10.45% |
| Satan |
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300 | 12.75% |
| Nobody |
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202 | 8.58% |
| Jess Scarane |
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110 | 4.67% |
| mystery man Brian Carroll of the American Solidarity Party |
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61 | 2.59% |
| Dick Nixon |
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100 | 4.25% |
| Total: | 2089 votes | ||
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Pick posted:For what reason do you think that African-American people are only learning this today, indicating that it is not factored into current polling? Because they, like most Americans, are not terribly politically engaged. There is a reason why attacks on Hillary’s record on race were effective: because most people of any race or demographic simply didn’t know about her record until then.
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May 30, 2020 07:50
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Majorian posted:Because they, like most Americans, are not terribly politically engaged. There is a reason why attacks on Hillary’s record on race were effective: because most people of any race or demographic simply didn’t know about her record until then. It's not clear that the attacks on Hillary's record on race were effective in changing African-American votes. African-American women voted for Hillary Clinton by 94%. African American women voted for Barack Obama by 96%. I used women so we are steering away from a critical question which will also likely be explored in 2020: the extent to which Hillary Clinton's gender may have introduced another variable and affected voting behavior.
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May 30, 2020 07:57
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Pick posted:It's not clear that the attacks on Hillary's record on race were effective in changing African-American votes. African-American women voted for Hillary Clinton by 94%. African American women voted for Barack Obama by 96%. I used women so we are steering away from a critical question which will also likely be explored in 2020: the extent to which Hillary Clinton's gender may have introduced another variable and affected voting behavior. Those who turned out to vote, did as you say. But turnout among POC voters in the Upper Midwest was decisively low. It cost her those states. e: this was, of course, well-documented at the time. Majorian fucked around with this message at 08:13 on May 30, 2020 |
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May 30, 2020 08:05
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Majorian posted:Those who turned out to vote, did as you say. But turnout among POC voters in the Upper Midwest was decisively low. It cost her those states. You're saying it was because they didn't approve of her on race issues. That's very possible! But major voter-suppression efforts were also in play. We don't know which of those two things swamped the other, if either. And we never will! Covid will change voting practices in ways that will make it impossible to ever know what aspects were most influential in 2016. However, we do know Biden has strong African-American support. He won the primary predicated in no small part by overwhelming African-American support. He's also not coming fresh off of these issues like Hillary was as Secretary of State. There has been time to view his term, especially as VP, retrospectively. And frankly, though Biden did very little as VP, that will be the period that defines him as a candidate, and that's not associated with the hot-button issues you are citing.
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May 30, 2020 08:12
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Pick posted:You're saying it was because they didn't approve of her on race issues. That's very possible! But major voter-suppression efforts were also in play. There were no new voter suppression measures in play in Michigan, one of the major states she lost because she couldn't turn out black or brown voters. Same is true of Florida and Pennsylvania. quote:However, we do know Biden has strong African-American support. He won the primary predicated in no small part by overwhelming African-American support. We know he has strong support among older, more conservative black voters who turned out for the primary. That contingent is not enough to win the presidency, as we saw in 2016. He needs to turn out young, non-conservative black and brown voters, or he will do no better than Clinton did. As it turns out, the Democratic strategy of only giving a poo poo about old, conservative POC voters does not tend to lead to a massive turnout from all POC voters in the general election. They should maybe listen to young, left-of-center POCs, for a change. quote:He's also not coming fresh off of these issues like Hillary was as Secretary of State. Clinton had not been Secretary of State for four years when she ran. Majorian fucked around with this message at 08:18 on May 30, 2020 |
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May 30, 2020 08:13
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Majorian posted:There were no new voter suppression measures in play in Wisconsin, one of the major states she lost because she couldn't turn out black or brown voters. quote:Republican Donald Trump 1,405,284 That's a very slim margin. There are many reasons she could have lost these votes. Even if she did lose female African American votes (and relative to Obama, that wouldn't surprise me at all), that doesn't mean it was exclusively based on Republican attacks on race issues, or that the same attacks would be effective in 2020, or would be effective against Biden. Majorian posted:We know he has strong support among older, more conservative black voters who turned out for the primary. That contingent is not enough to win the presidency, as we saw in 2016. He needs to turn out young, non-conservative black and brown voters, or he will do no better than Clinton did. As it turns out, the Democratic strategy of only giving a poo poo about old, conservative POC voters does not tend to lead to a massive turnout from all POC voters in the general election. They should maybe listen to young, left-of-center POCs, for a change. They resulted in fewer votes, where primary votes are assumed to carry over into GE votes. If young, black, more left-wing voters had voted more votes for a candidate who was not Biden, than older, conservative black voters voted for the man who was Biden, the results would have been different. However, the result was that African-Americans, as a group, voted more votes for Biden than they did for anyone else, where those votes are wanted for the GE so that the candidate will have those votes in large numbers and then get more votes than his rival. Pick fucked around with this message at 08:20 on May 30, 2020 |
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May 30, 2020 08:17
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Pick posted:That's a very slim margin. There are many reasons she could have lost these votes. Even if she did lose female African American votes (and relative to Obama, that wouldn't surprise me at all), that doesn't mean it was exclusively based on Republican attacks on race issues, or that the same attacks would be effective in 2020, or would be effective against Biden. You're dodging my point. Biden needs POC voters to turn out more reliably for him in the Upper Midwest than they did for Clinton. The way things are going with his campaign, I don't see why they would. quote:They resulted in fewer votes, where primary votes are assumed to carry over into GE votes. If young, black, more left-wing voters had voted more votes for a candidate who was not Biden, than older, conservative black voters voted for the man who was Biden, the results would have been different. However, the result was that African-Americans, as a group, voted more votes for Biden than they did for anyone else, where those votes are wanted for the GE so that the candidate will have those votes in large numbers and then get more votes than his rival. Because, as I pointed out earlier, the Democratic establishment systematically and deliberately suppressed non-old, non-conservative POC voters. Majorian fucked around with this message at 08:22 on May 30, 2020 |
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May 30, 2020 08:19
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Majorian posted:You're dodging my point. Biden needs POC voters to turn out more reliably for him in the Upper Midwest than they did for Clinton. The way things are going with his campaign, I don't see why they would. ... A massive upswing in turnout and overwhelming African-American support among that surge? 
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May 30, 2020 08:21
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Pick posted:... A massive upswing in turnout and overwhelming African-American support among that surge? I'm not sure what point you think you're making here. Old conservative black people turned out for the old conservative candidate. As I pointed out earlier, that contingent (or the "old conservative Democrats of any demographic" contingent, for that matter) is not enough to elect anyone president. e: in the meantime, turnout in South Carolina was less than in 2016, and while Biden crushed Bernie, it was a closer race than in 2016.
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May 30, 2020 08:25
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It doesn't matter to the outcome of the general selection who the votes come from, young or old. It doesn't matter if those people are voting in their best interests. It doesn't matter if those voters are informed. The only thing that matters in the GE is which votes are logged in which states in what proportions for what party. If Biden gets more votes from old people, it might indicate eventual demographic problems, but it will mean nothing at all to the outcome of a contemporary election. Biden got his votes.
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May 30, 2020 08:26
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Pick posted:It doesn't matter to the outcome of the general selection who the votes come from, young or old. Actually, it does. Old Democratic loyalists (like Biden's base) are going to turn out and vote blue no matter who. The Democrats, if they want to win, should focus on voters who don't turn out as reliably and cost Dem candidates big elections - as they did in 2016. Namely, younger people, the poor, Latinos, etc.
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May 30, 2020 08:29
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Majorian posted:Actually, it does. Old Democratic loyalists (like Biden's base) are going to turn out and vote blue no matter who. The Democrats, if they want to win, should focus on voters who don't turn out as reliably and cost Dem candidates big elections - as they did in 2016. Namely, younger people, the poor, etc. Primary candidate Bernie Sanders relied on this strategy and could not get more young person votes than Biden got old person votes, so Biden won the primary. Because primary votes are taken to be indicative of general election voting and preferences, the strategy is to use the person with the strategy that worked to get votes instead of the strategy that didn't work to get votes, because elections are decided by who has more votes than the other candidate.
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May 30, 2020 08:31
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Pick posted:Primary candidate Bernie Sanders relied on this strategy and could not get more young person votes than Biden got old person votes, so Biden won the primary election. Well, again, in no small part because the Democratic establishment suppressed young voters. But even if we ignore that, you still end up with a similar set of circumstances as 2016. Just saying, "Welp, young people didn't turn out, and old people did, therefore Clinton's clearly the best person to run against Trump" was a self-defeating mentality then, and it's a self-defeating mentality to take towards Biden now. quote:Because primary votes are taken to be indicative of general election voting and preferences, the strategy is to use the person with the strategy that worked to get votes instead of the strategy that didn't work to get votes, because elections are decided by who has more votes than the other candidate. And I'm saying it's pretty clear that the Democratic primary system isn't actually effective in nominating candidates who can win presidential general elections.
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May 30, 2020 08:35
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Pick posted:Primary candidate Bernie Sanders relied on this strategy and could not get more young person votes than Biden got old person votes, so Biden won the primary. Because primary votes are taken to be indicative of general election voting and preferences, the strategy is to use the person with the strategy that worked to get votes instead of the strategy that didn't work to get votes, because elections are decided by who has more votes than the other candidate. They literally are not, unless you're posting from the universe where Hillary Clinton is President. If you are, why did they have a Democratic Primary this year?
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May 30, 2020 08:37
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Eminai posted:They literally are not, unless you're posting from the universe where Hillary Clinton is President. If you are, why did they have a Democratic Primary this year? I clarified that more specifically above, when I said, "The only thing that matters in the GE is which votes are logged in which states in what proportions for what party." I thought actually that I might be over-explaining or redundant but I will endeavor to be more clear in the future to avoid confusion. Thanks for pointing that out to me  .
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May 30, 2020 08:37
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Pick posted:I clarified that more specifically above, when I said, "The only thing that matters in the GE is which votes are logged in which states in what proportions for what party." I thought actually that I might be over-explaining but I will endeavor to be more clear in the future to avoid confusion. Thanks for pointing that out to me You should instead endeavor not to build a post around the idea that primary elections are indicative of general elections when talking about a primary that has a remarkably different way of tallying votes than the general election.
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May 30, 2020 08:39
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No, you see it's very important to say that Biden got more (old, conservative) black people to vote for him in a state that will 100% go for Trump in the election. The conservative southern states picking the democratic candidate has always worked out well for us in the past, and there's no reason to believe that it won't in the future.
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May 30, 2020 09:25
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Kaedric posted:No, you see it's very important to say that Biden got more (old, conservative) black people to vote for him in a state that will 100% go for Trump in the election. The conservative southern states picking the democratic candidate has always worked out well for us in the past, and there's no reason to believe that it won't in the future. It's always a bonus when people are represented by their own party, especially persons who are institutionally disenfranchised! But more directly relevant to your concern, thankfully Biden won all the general election swing states that have voted thus far except New Hampshire. This includes Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Texas (again, by the very cautious swing state map), and Maine. Some of those states, like Florida, are traditionally important in the general election, so the party's system--thinking general election results representative--granted more of the delegates to the man who got 61.9% of the vote and not 22.8% of the vote. Luckily, he's also popular in very left-leaning states, such as Washington (which is also vote-by-mail, removing any concerns with Covid, long wait-times, or cancellations of voting locations). Based on his performance in the states likely to decide the general election, as well as all of the other ones taken in sum, he was selected to try to win the general election.
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May 30, 2020 09:33
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Pick posted:It's always a bonus when people are represented by their own party, especially persons who are institutionally disenfranchised! But more directly relevant to your concern, thankfully Biden won all the general election swing states that have voted thus far except New Hampshire. This includes Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, Texas (again, by the very cautious swing state map), and Maine. Some of those states, like Florida, are traditionally important in the general election, so the party's system--thinking general election results representative--granted more of the delegates to the man who got 61.9% of the vote and not 22.8% of the vote. Luckily, he's also popular in very left-leaning states, such as Washington (which is also vote-by-mail, removing any concerns with Covid, long wait-times, or cancellations of voting locations). All of this is evidence of the effect that media and party leadership narratives like momentum and inevitability have on primary voting patterns, not of Biden’s strength in the general election. Everything you’re saying here was said of Clinton in 2016 as well, and at least she had a core group of supporters who really, zealously loved her. No one loves Biden. So why do you think he will do better than Clinton?
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May 30, 2020 09:37
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https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1266633217555214337?s=19 (he said no)
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May 30, 2020 09:40
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I fully expect that people will just take their masks off once inside anyway. Trump will spin it as a proud act of rebellion.
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May 30, 2020 09:44
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Welp. New general thread, new opportunity to post Mark Blyth's ever-relevant prediction that Trump will win again. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwSDszG_HXE Despite the plague and the riots, I do not see conditions changing significantly enough to change this. As much as I hate to say it, Trump will win again.
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May 30, 2020 09:49
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Venomous posted:Welp. New general thread, new opportunity to post Mark Blyth's ever-relevant prediction that Trump will win again. I actually doubt that he’ll win, given that the economy is going to still be in the shitter by November. That does tend to be the one (non-medical) condition that invariably ejects presidents after one term. But obviously I don’t know, and the Dems seem dead-set on trying to throw the election at all costs, so...
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May 30, 2020 09:52
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Venomous posted:Welp. New general thread, new opportunity to post Mark Blyth's ever-relevant prediction that Trump will win again. I'd have completely agreed, in September, when this was posted. However, a lot has changed since September because of key factors like joblessness numbers that eclipse 2007/2008 and are hearkening to the Great Depression, as well as a mismanaged global pandemic. These are not things that Mark Blythe foresaw at that time. Majorian posted:All of this is evidence of the effect that media and party leadership narratives like momentum and inevitability have on primary voting patterns, not of Biden’s strength in the general election. Everything you’re saying here was said of Clinton in 2016 as well, and at least she had a core group of supporters who really, zealously loved her. No one loves Biden. So why do you think he will do better than Clinton? I think there are a few reasons. Here are some: Donald Trump ran on dissatisfaction with Barack Obama and Obama's self-celebratory attitude with respect to an economy that had not sufficiently recovered. This is not as strong a force now that Obama has not been president recently, and his popularity has largely recovered. Donald Trump ran on racism, with "easy solutions" posited for racists. However, he did not get his wall, and though expulsions are up, undocumented persons are still common in the United States. As a corollary, the jobs Trump promised would return when the wall was up and the undocumented persons were gone, did not "return". They never will. Donald Trump did not "Build the Wall" in any substantial way. The most tangible promise was not fulfilled. Donald Trump promised he would "hire the best people" and "clean the swamp" which was appealing to persons who were anti-establishment. He hired establishment persons, and is now establishment. Donald Trump asked African-Americans "What have you got to lose?" which apparently held some sway in 2016; in 2020, I believe they may feel differently. Donald Trump has no media novelty any more. The media itself is less fascinated by Trump than it was in 2016. Unemployment is nearing Great Depression levels and people are upset. Polls show older voters in particular are dissatisfied by the Covid response and rhetoric. Trump cannot be "projected upon" as he could in 2016. There's no "Donald the Dove" or "Donald the LGBT+ ally". He now has a public service record that clarifies where he stands on these issues. Hillary Clinton was singularly reviled for many years by the Republicans; I've yet to see equivalent virulence towards Biden, even from right-wing media. Even if a very small percentage of persons are sexist, it is nonzero, and Biden is male. Clinton's support was concentrated on Democratic strongholds, where votes are less useful. Clinton ran on social issues that weren't as popular as perceived, especially outside Democratic strongholds. As a corollary, it won't be as easy for Trump to run counter to some of these social issues. Clinton didn't even try to appeal to voters in the Midwest, for example by not holding campaign events there. Biden has an even longer presence in the public eye than Hillary and I think it will take more to disrupt the perception of him. Biden has been out of the public eye for a while and therefore doesn't have immediate continuity to events like Benghazi. Being boring did not work for Kerry or Gore, but I think it is uniquely not a liability for Biden simply due to exhaustion on behalf of the electorate. Clinton relied on a complex playbook and extreme details of policy; Biden is running on vague nostalgia and few concrete promises. I do not think voters vote on policy so I think that a homey anecdote or polite nod will probably perform better than "Go to JoeBiden.com for details". I don't think it'll be a blowout. I actually think it's about even-odds. But Clinton ran a frankly ghastly campaign, and I think Biden will not make many of the same mistakes. Pick fucked around with this message at 10:19 on May 30, 2020 |
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May 30, 2020 09:58
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Modi destroyed the Indian economy too, and yet he won reelection in a landslide. No, the US isn't India, but it's experiencing a similar far-right nationalist regime with a similarly ineffective liberal opposition, and as Modi showed, liberalism can't beat purestrain populism.
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May 30, 2020 10:03
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Pick posted:I'd have completely agreed, in September, when this was posted. However, a lot has changed since September because of key factors like joblessness numbers that eclipse 2007/2008 and are hearkening to the Great Depression, as well as a mismanaged global pandemic. These are not things that Mark Blythe foresaw at that time. But, if Trump is not re-elected there is pretty much no way the Dems can take credit for it. They have chosen the worst possible nominee to run against Trump, using the worst possible playbook, and it will hamper their chances of retaking power in both the White House and the Senate. Enough to prevent it from happening? Maybe, maybe not. But they chose very poorly, and Biden’s defenders are going to need to come to terms with that fact.
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May 30, 2020 10:07
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Pick posted:It's always a bonus when people are represented by their own party, especially persons who are institutionally disenfranchised! Oh yeah for sure, Biden is well known for his strong support of policies that benefit people of color.
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May 30, 2020 10:18
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Venomous posted:Modi destroyed the Indian economy too, and yet he won reelection in a landslide. Modi is way more competent than Trump though.
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May 30, 2020 10:20
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Charlz Guybon posted:Modi is way more competent than Trump though. he absolutely isn't, it's literally the same playbook of 'ok sure the country's in the shitter mainly due to me but we all hate those loving muslims right?'
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May 30, 2020 13:36
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when Modi won the first time he literally answered the question of 'how can you defend the gang rapes of Muslims when you were governor, seemingly with your police's support?' with 'oh wow you don't talk about all the time Muslims DIDN'T get gang raped though???' He and Trump have the exact same baby brain
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May 30, 2020 13:37
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Pick posted:Primary candidate Bernie Sanders relied on this strategy and could not get more young person votes than Biden got old person votes, so Biden won the primary. Because primary votes are taken to be indicative of general election voting and preferences, the strategy is to use the person with the strategy that worked to get votes instead of the strategy that didn't work to get votes, because elections are decided by who has more votes than the other candidate. The dem primary system is unfit for purpose - this has been obvious for years - for example, all the way back when it couldn't produce a candidate to get rid of Bush.
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May 30, 2020 14:50
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Majorian posted:I actually doubt that he’ll win, given that the economy is going to still be in the shitter by November. That does tend to be the one (non-medical) condition that invariably ejects presidents after one term. But obviously I don’t know, and the Dems seem dead-set on trying to throw the election at all costs, so... I'd like to think this will be key. If he comes to his senses long enough to give us more money for unemployment pay through the end of the year, that will probably be enough.
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May 30, 2020 16:26
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Freakazoid_ posted:I'd like to think this will be key. If he comes to his senses long enough to give us more money for unemployment pay through the end of the year, that will probably be enough. Most states are already opening up to force workers off unemployment, extending bonus unemployment won't help him that much. Monthly checks with his name stamped all over them though... Edit: What are the odds those stimulus debit cards have his picture on them?
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May 30, 2020 16:32
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They do not. The contracting for that happened within treasury and looks to be bottom of barrel. Adding his picture would have cost money.
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May 30, 2020 16:50
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Discendo Vox posted:They do not. The contracting for that happened within treasury and looks to be bottom of barrel. Adding his picture would have cost money. They would have absolutely done it if Trump had thought of it.
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May 30, 2020 16:52
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Brownhat posted:They would have absolutely done it if Trump had thought of it. And it would have been a brilliant move. Trump's dumb as a stump on most topics, but he knows bullying and he knows shameless self-promotion.
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May 30, 2020 17:29
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Freakazoid_ posted:I'd like to think this will be key. If he comes to his senses long enough to give us more money for unemployment pay through the end of the year, that will probably be enough. There's also the factor that Biden has been making GBS threads himself on campaigns for longer then most of the posters here have been alive. I fully expect he'll find some way, or have some other scandal come up that would let trump  him*, assuming one already out there doesn't do it, though as I've said before, my default outcome for this election is probably another Trump electoral college victory.*My money is that Ronan might have a real bombshell in stock. StratGoatCom fucked around with this message at 18:49 on May 30, 2020 |
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May 30, 2020 18:21
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StratGoatCom posted:There's also the factor that Biden has been making GBS threads himself on campaigns for longer then most of the posters here have been alive. I fully expect he'll find some way, or have some other scandal come up that would let trump Biden has his fingerprints all over the militarization of the police, and you can bet that Trump will use that in the debates.
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May 30, 2020 18:32
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StratGoatCom posted:There's also the factor that Biden has been making GBS threads himself on campaigns for longer then most of the posters here have been alive. I fully expect he'll find some way, or have some other scandal come up that would let trump Biden is actually quite a successful campaigner, from being the youngest Senator at his time of inauguration, to solidly outperforming Clinton against Bernie Sanders, including in key states like Michigan. He dropped early in 1988, but in the following Senate election, he won with the highest margins of his career, indicating that there was little if any lasting ill-will. It is often forgotten Biden withdrew before the primaries and therefore we do not know how he would have performed in the primaries, and didn't campaign during the primaries. Biden did not succeed in 2008, but he was selected for the Vice Presidency based on his performance and popularity. He was considered an asset to Obama, and his debate performance against Palin was a significant win in the Obama campaign. In 2020, he won by massive margins in key states and was the clear preference of the Democratic electorate. Brownhat posted:Biden has his fingerprints all over the militarization of the police, and you can bet that Trump will use that in the debates. The official Trump position is that militarizing the police is good and reduces crime. Pick fucked around with this message at 19:03 on May 30, 2020 |
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May 30, 2020 19:01
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Every presidential campaign he's ever had has imploded due to scandals, on the order of 4 or so times.quote:In 2020, he won by massive margins in key states and was the clear preference of the Democratic electorate. 'Key states and clear preference' is certainly an rosy way to put 'SC, a consistently red state, and trending in that direction at this moment', during an epidemic. StratGoatCom fucked around with this message at 19:09 on May 30, 2020 |
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May 30, 2020 19:04
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