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Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


Porfiriato posted:

https://www.tmz.com/2020/08/01/wilford-brimley-dead-dies-actor-quaker-oats-diabetes/

Wilford Brimley died. The article says that he'd been very ill and on dialysis, so the cause of death might have been, well, you know.

aw gawddammut

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Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


https://twitter.com/benyt/status/1290048084857065472

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


Best Friends posted:

So apparently

a) the Venezuela stuff with trying to pretend Guaido was the president was, in fact, a coup

b) the dem party line on this is that Trump is not being aggressive enough in foreign policy. The problem isn't the coup, it's that it wasn't successful

Correct, and they've been consistent on this message. Iran, Syria, Venezuela, Bolivia, China...

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


spot the difference

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1290965684160094208

:stonklol:

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


:laffo:

https://twitter.com/dellcam/status/1291564770009722885

maybe we'll know in September! rip to any publicly traded companies this may or may not apply to!

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


i hear that the easiest-to-get modern countermeasure against urban cavalry is shitloads of marbles

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


Best Friends posted:

Wait this dude is a Nazi sympathizer in a wheelchair? He's got to be aware of who the Nazis murdered first, right?

I don't think he's a trade unionist.

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


Cugel the Clever posted:

It is constantly annoying to me that this needs to be re-explained again and again. Folks are taking extraordinary measures to ensure that they don't get the coronavirus because there's a 1% chance that they'll die, but a Trump winning with a forecasted 29% likelihood is impossible and a sign that pollsters are full of poo poo.

May their model be full of poo poo for other reasons? Sure! But an unlikely thing occurring is not indicative of that.

right, sometimes unlikely things happen, so there's no way to judge a predictive model by actual events

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


Cugel the Clever posted:

You're right, but there's no way in hell we're completely redoing the 2016 election even nine more times to see whether Trump only wins a little less than a third of them.

An election is not an unknowable random event, it's deterministic, and unpredictable only due to limited information and time. The percentage numbers indicate the model's confidence in the outcome, based on measurements of things which in reality fully determine the result, and based on theories of how and to what degrees they determine it, making a tractable guess of what will happen possible.

538's theories were wrong and have not changed.

I think it's Trump's election to lose, but that he still might. If anyone could avoid doing the many things that could easily clinch his victory, it'd be him.

e: Biden's campaign continues to be elder abuse.

Doc Hawkins fucked around with this message at 17:19 on Aug 12, 2020

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


Political volunteering helped me realize that I could give many more votes to the people i supported than just my own. Paradoxically it made me much less interested and invested in who people will vote for. If you're a "no," then I can move on to the next person. I don't talk much about who I support off the clock, because volunteering a few hours a week for a few months means my own vote, generously, less than five percent of the votes I have contributed to.

However much you value voting for your choice, you should value prompting ten more people to vote that way ten times as much.

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


BigDave posted:

The one with legal weed?

Bad metaphor already, neither both parties are against that.

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


one hundred and sixty-five thousand dead

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


ded posted:

*documented

yeah, in a few years we'll have a brief window to estimate the total excess deaths before records become spotty

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


Platystemon posted:

What’s wrong with including the state bird on the flag? :confused:

makes the design look too bzzy

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


Mr. Nice! posted:

The problem is they're not comfortable sharing with the 3/5ths of the population.

aiyaa...

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


orange juche posted:

Iirc the morlocks had all the technology etc, and they basically farmed/bred the eloi and used them as a food source. The eloi didn't understand technology or understand anything about the morlocks other than that they came out at night and if you were caught out you would disappear.

I've not read the time machine in like 20 years though.

correct, the eloi were literally sheeple

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


facialimpediment posted:

UNC Chapel Hill officially closed. They lasted a week before their COVID positive percentage hit 12%.

https://twitter.com/TarheelSoup/status/1295337202495426560?s=19

https://twitter.com/gregpmiller/status/1295450212530520065?s=19

our institutions are run by morons whose entire lives have prepared them to expect being fawned over for their sensibility and virtue

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


meanwhile we're totally fine in CA

https://twitter.com/RachaelHerron/status/1296103976262221824

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


facialimpediment posted:

I didn't realize this until earlier today, but if you flip a Trump voter to Biden, it counts for double. You add a vote to your total and decrease from theirs! There aren't many of those "undecided" voters anymore, but they still exist and they're high-value. 2018 showed that there were plenty enough of them to flip the House and that was before the pandemic and mass uprising.

You're on the moon. Electoral strategy is about turnout: increasing it with people who are likely to vote for your person and decreasing it for everyone else. Some messages happen to do both, but they don't literally change people's minds.

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


facialimpediment posted:

That's more or less the Trump campaign strategy, but there's a serious problem with it. If you try to decrease votes for the other side, there's the very real threat of blowback. A lot of the voter suppression poo poo they're trying to pull is just making people even more determined to vote, even people that might not have considered voting before. That's how you get BLM rallies in the middle of the deep south after gassing Lafayette Square.

Is it also how you have Trump after dismissing him and his supporters as obviously incompetent, racist, and generally deplorable? Do the people you disagree with also have sufficient agency to become more determined to vote in the face of people they hate denying them, or does all evidence you find just reinforce your existing positions?

I'll give you this, you're providing a good example of what I meant: a narrative of inevitable happy victory is one that brings people to the polls. The theory that complacency makes people not bother to vote is BS, Americans love a winner and enjoy joining bandwagons. Unless it's for someone they don't like, in which case they sulk and stay home.

But none of this marketing nonsense can compete with real-poo poo voter suppression. The democratic party cannot defend democracy.

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!




ah, we're at this stage of the tea party cycle i see

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


PookBear posted:

it wouldn't be that hard to impliment either, just a basic spelling test or something like that

yeah, maybe throw in some simple civics questions, a small processing fee...

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


I'm starting to be concerned only those of us making the Jim Crow jokes are getting them, so I'll just say it: cognitive or educational tests as a condition of voting was part of Jim Crow.

If you're worried that some people are too stupid to vote, figure out how to educate them, and how to outnumber them.

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


everyone is equally a baby when they're 5. not everyone is equally senile when they're 75.

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1296989310684729344

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!



folks really don't remember usernames i guess

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


i feel like this story may follow them for a while

https://twitter.com/arguendope/status/1298014040636174336

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


BIG HEADLINE posted:

CUCK 469
Course ID J1550NH3R80085
Professors: Falwell, Becki and Falwell, Jerry Jr. (observing/'emeritus')
Open Slots and Wait List: Contact Professor

102 imo

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


Yeah, the 1 on one side of the room, and the 2 on the other.

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


Fister Roboto posted:

That seems like a recibee for disaster.

please

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


facialimpediment posted:

By the way, the CDC is basically hosed now. This is why I tend to react like a gently caress when I see the "Biden won't make anything better ever" stuff.

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1298582772932648960?s=19

https://twitter.com/jaketapper/status/1298654628679221249?s=19

Why would a Biden admin change this? If you're already committed to not paying people to stay home and healthy, and to not providing care if they're sick, accurate and widespread testing doesn't do anything but make people scared to go out and buy things. There's no upside.

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


CainFortea posted:

This is 100% fan fiction.

The ONLY number they care about is next quarter. Period.

If they were at all interested in investing in a healthy workforce this would never have happened.

To say nothing of the simple fact that capital has been fleeing the US for our entire lives. Our inability to provide basic infrastructure is both an outcome of the process and a signal to speed it up.

The "trade war" you keep hearing about is just the creaking of boats on our sinking tide.

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


he doesn't have a podcast but this guy is the most It Could Happen Here person i know

https://twitter.com/PatBlanchfield/status/1298687551247724548

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


it's a strike

please call it a strike, and make other people call it a strike

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!



normal settler-colonial slaving country

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


he might have had even more knives in his house, someone should check on that

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


I'm worried that the real perpetrators of this senseless violence will never be brought to justice

https://twitter.com/kathychaney/status/1299074732487254017

oh, phew, they got him

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!



Of course they'd steal a good line from a woman but still gently caress it up.

Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


Handsome Ralph posted:

Also "practically nothing" in this case was getting the owners to turn arenas into voting centers and spending money to drive turnout among other things.

What does that have to do with the price of life in Kenosha?

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Doc Hawkins
Jun 15, 2010

Dashing? But I'm not even moving!


Handsome Ralph posted:

This is pretty much where I'm at with it. To boot, seeing that it's mostly white people whining about how players from a majority black sports league approached Obama or that they got nothing is a bit cringey to say the least.

I realize most people here don't like Obama. That's fine and you're not wrong for disliking him for the reasons that get brought up here from time to time, but you're really dumb if you think Obama is PNG'd in the black community because the DSA doesn't like him. Hell even outside the black community, he is still insanely popular. It shouldn't really shock anyone that some people still look to him for any sort of guidance despite how anyone here might feel about him.

You've hared off into an argument about celebrity, not reality. Go outside and see who's whining about what.

Mustang posted:

So who will?

There's a long road ahead of creating political organizations capable of and interested in protecting the lives of working people, but it's work worth doing even if success turns out to be impossible, or at least impossible in our lifetimes.

But hey, sometimes things can change quickly.

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